Well, let's talk about the 2018 senate elections

[windjammer]

My (very) early ratings (which are quite Democratic-friendly):

I think what you just drew is an incumbent friendly map in a neutral year. I think it is quite wise to have that as the beginning of the cycle, but I don't think it represents what a nighmary scenario would be for republicans.

I will draw my "nightmare scenario" for republicans later.

[windjammer]

By the way,
The most likely path to senate majority for democrats is to pick up 3 seats, how in my view they do that:
- Holding all their seats: while I now feel much more confident for states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, there are 4 seats that will start as toss ups: Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri and Montana. So not losing a single seat among the 4 will be a difficult thing to make but I'm confident if things go terrible for republicans they could hold them all.
- Picking up Nevada: shouldn't be too difficult honestly.
-Picking up Arizona: should be relatively difficult but I'm confident Flake will have some problems with primary challenge to damage him, so this definitely a pick up possibility.
- So now, let's find the third pick up: who are the other seats being held by republicans:
     x Tennessee: NO WAY
     x Nebraska: NO WAY
     x Wyoming: the only possible way would be Barrasso to retire and Cheney running for this seat and even that she would be extremely favoured: NO WAY
     x Mississippi: Hillary seriously underperformed with blacks and the whites than Obama, considering that there are still some democrats alive in MS: Jim Hood, Brandon Presley. I expect MS democrats to file a decent candidate anyway. So I guess this is possible a pick up but obviously highly unlikely: Likely Rep/ NO WAY
     x Texas: Trump's favoral ratings will be extremely abysmal with Texas residents. Ted Cruz is going to probably be damaged by a primary challenge or by his terrible relations with Trump. And democrats always compete in Texas even when they shouldnt (TX gub 2014 for example lol), so I expect this election to attract money and attention: Likely Rep
    x Utah: it may sound crazy but this will likely be an open seat/incumbent beaten seat. Mormons, well, how to say that, have TERRIBLE RELATIONSHIP with Trump and if there is a state where Trump could make Republican's lives terrible downballot, this is this state. Mormons do often split their ballot downballot, I'm thinking about Jim Matheson, so if he could run or Jon Hunstman as an indy, things could get interesting: Likely Rep/ Lean Rep (with Matheson or Hunstman)

So, their best path for democrats to pick up the senate right now is:
1) Nevada
2) Arizona
3) Utah

Well, things will be extremely difficult lol. But at least a path exists so we political nerds will have interest to at least follow the 2018 senate election

[Vern]

Ask me again next summer

[SWE]

It's worth noting that FOX said tonight that Manchin implied that he is considering switching parties

Manchin stated pretty unambiguously yesterday that there's no chance of that (and he came off as genuinely pissed that people considered it a possibility)

[Gass3268]

It's worth noting that FOX said tonight that Manchin implied that he is considering switching parties

Manchin stated pretty unambiguously yesterday that there's no chance of that (and he came off as genuinely pissed that people considered it a possibility)

As someone who's not a big fan of Manchin, good for him!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

These midterms will be fascinating, as there are two reasonable theories that people could come up with for midterms (in this decade) following the last couple:

1. The Out Party has an advantage
2. Due to who votes in midterms, the Republicans have an advantage

Now that the Out Party and the Republicans are no longer the same, it will be really interesting to see how it goes.  Now, the map is very favorable to Republicans, so it is unlikely that Democratic pickups go past two (and a 50-50 GOP controlled Senate), even if it winds up being a good Democratic year.  Theory 2 could easily result in a Republican filibuster-proof majority, especially if President Trump/President Pence is not extremely unpopular.  It may also be some of both, creating a neutral climate, where Republicans make modest gains due to the map.

[Orser67]

I think people are underestimating how bad the mid-term could get for Republicans. In 2010, Republicans won Illinois and (in a special election) Massachusetts, and Republicans defended all of their seats in 2010 and 2014. The possibility of Democrats holding all of their seats is on the table, as is an upset in TX and UT (though only if Hatch retires/loses primary and Matheson runs).

[Coolface Sock #42069]

My (very) early ratings (which are quite Democratic-friendly):

That's about what I'd go with as well except maybe I'd give Joe Donnelly and Dean Heller toss-ups, and Angus King isn't a Democrat.

I have a hard time seeing Bob Casey or Bill Nelson losing, but, then again, I also didn't see Trump winning their states as plausible.

[jamestroll]

I think what you just drew is an incumbent friendly map in a neutral year. I think it is quite wise to have that as the beginning of the cycle, but I don't think it represents what a nighmary scenario would be for republicans.

I will draw my "nightmare scenario" for republicans later.

Well, there is also a "nightmare scenario" for Democrats, especially if Trump is popular in many of these red states (WV, IN, MO, ND, etc.).

Midterms often create insane results.

We do  not have a Governor Anthony Brown now in Maryland.

McCaskill will either win comfortable or lose big time. I do not see an in between there.

Hell, if Trump stays unpopular with Mormons, Utah Senate could be won by an independent (Huntsman) or a Democrat (Matheson or McAdams).

Manchin of West Virginia strikes me as strong candidate.

We will see.

[Devils30]

I could see 1 Senate seat and 40 House seats..no joke.

[LordSmiley]

Ok, new fish here. Here's my take:

Taking a look at the 2018 map, the Democrats are operating at an overwhelming disadvantage, having to defend 25 seats to the GOP's 8. Furthermore, out of the GOP's 8 seats, 6 of them are safe, the only two being even remotely contested are AZ and NV. Meanwhile, the Dems have to defend at least 10 seats in states that went to Trump (FL, IN, MI, MO, MT, ND, OH, PA, WI, WV). Combined with the fact that midterm turnout favors Republicans, it's not looking good for Team Blue.

However, one must all remember that the party not in the White House tends to have an advantage going into midterms, mainly due to waning approval of the president. Though, it really depends on how unpopular Trump is by 2018.

If I may give my conservative estimate, here are my ratings for the 2018 race, based on 2012 results and assuming that Trump is somewhat unpopular:

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MA, MD, ME*, MN, NM, NY, RI, VT*, WA (13)
Likely D: FL, MI, NJ, PA, VA (5)
Lean D: OH, WV, WI (3)
Tossup: MT, ND (2)
Lean R: MO, IN (2)
Likely R: AZ, NV (2)
Safe R: MS, NE, TN, TX, WY, UT (6)

* = Indie caucusing with the Dems.

-----

Have a nice day.

[windjammer]

http://cookpolitical.com/story/10164

New senate map for 2018

[Panda Express]

NeverTrumper Jeff Flake is toast in a primary. Calling it now.

[mencken]

Do the pundits have their heads up their asses? Ticket splitting was at an all-time low this year, and Democrats are defending 5 seats that Trump won by >20%. Donnelly, McCaskill, and Heitkamp can start looking for lobbying jobs now (or not if Trump is serious about ethics reform). Montana and West Virginia actually split tickets for populist Democrats, so Tester and Manchin could possibly hang on. The same factor might help Brown in Ohio, but he also has a steep hill to climb. Nelson, Baldwin, Casey, Stabenow, King all represent states fully or partially carried by Trump, but will have a slight incumbent advantage. Even Kaine, Klobuchar, and Heinrich are not out of the woods yet. I also forgot that Menendez has his own issues to deal with.

The only real pickup opportunies are Heller and Flake, who both to Democrats' credit ran behind Romney, and might be at risk for retaliation for their disloyalty.

So basically, Republicans will almost certainly gain at least one net seat assuming Trump's approval rating is above Dubya's. They probably pick up between five and seven if Trump phones in a mediocre performance. Republicans could possibly have as many as thirteen seats if Trump completely shocks the pundits in his first two years, but it's not like he's ever done that before, right?

[jamestroll]

Do the pundits have their heads up their asses? Ticket splitting was at an all-time low this year, and Democrats are defending 5 seats that Trump won by >20%. Donnelly, McCaskill, and Heitkamp can start looking for lobbying jobs now (or not if Trump is serious about ethics reform). Montana and West Virginia actually split tickets for populist Democrats, so Tester and Manchin could possibly hang on. The same factor might help Brown in Ohio, but he also has a steep hill to climb. Nelson, Baldwin, Casey, Stabenow, King all represent states fully or partially carried by Trump, but will have a slight incumbent advantage. Even Kaine, Klobuchar, and Heinrich are not out of the woods yet. I also forgot that Menendez has his own issues to deal with.

The only real pickup opportunies are Heller and Flake, who both to Democrats' credit ran behind Romney, and might be at risk for retaliation for their disloyalty.

So basically, Republicans will almost certainly gain at least one net seat assuming Trump's approval rating is above Dubya's. They probably pick up between five and seven if Trump phones in a mediocre performance. Republicans could possibly have as many as thirteen seats if Trump completely shocks the pundits in his first two years, but it's not like he's ever done that before, right?

Ticket splitting actually was fairly heavy in MO and IN, just Trump won by way to much.

And you are assuming every single election is going to be the same. We have no idea what is going to happen the next two years.. None..

Just 2 weeks ago everyone assumed Clinton would win easily and 2018 would be a Democrat blood bath.

2018 could end up like a 2002 midterm. We have no clue at this time. But even in the 2002 midterm, gop gains were not that great and Democrats won governorships in some  Republican territory.

I realize that I have a very controversial opinion here, but before next summer it is hard to get a feel for anything.