Looks like VA is 100% gone for Republicans.

[MT Treasurer]

Clinton did better than Obama 2012 in the state. Trump did do much better than expected in NC, though, while underperforming in GA (he even lost Cobb and Gwinnett!).

[Santander]

Really? You couldn't wait a full day before starting this again?

[Xing]

Nevada and Colorado probably are, too.

[MT Treasurer]

Really? You couldn't wait a full day before starting this again?

I just find the results interesting. GA should be a cause of concern for the GOP in the future, while NC was much better for Trump than expected. Trump also overperformed in MS IMO.

[Boston Bread]

No, Trump was the wrong candidate here but he was the right candidate for other areas. The right Republican for VA could have won, whether such candidate could have won a primary is another matter.

[tmthforu94]

Tim Kaine factor. I wouldn't say it is gone, yet, though Colorado and Nevada may be, at least for the next couple of elections.

[Ljube]

Virginia was gone 4 years ago.

[Mr. Smith]

Really? You couldn't wait a full day before starting this again?

I just find the results interesting. GA should be a cause of concern for the GOP in the future, while NC was much better for Trump than expected. Trump also overperformed in MS IMO.

NC diverging so much from VA and GA was very odd.  Oh well, it wouldn't have saved Clinton anyway.  I mentioned elsewhere that investing so much in NC while basically leaving GA untouched was bad strategy, also taking the McMullin polls seriously and going into UT and AZ instead of TX was bad as well (although I know TX costs a bloody fortune to compete in).

Given how close AZ was, yeah no.

Just as Dukakis' gambles in the Mid-Atlantic, Plains States, and California didn't quite cut it in '88, the way was paved for Billy C. in '92.

2020 could get the whole Mexican Border locked up, and that with the West Coast, and Atlantic Coast would easily make up the Midwest loss.

[Wisconsin+17]

Hey, TN Vol, how's New Hampshire working out?

[MT Treasurer]

Hey, TN Vol, how's New Hampshire working out?

Not sure why they haven't called it for Clinton yet, especially since they already projected Hassan as the winner in the Senate race.

[Desroko]

Hey, TN Vol, how's New Hampshire working out?

Not sure why they haven't called it for Clinton yet, especially since they already projected Hassan as the winner in the Senate race.

Yeah, Clinton's lead is actually larger than Hassan's.

[sg0508]

If anything, Democrats' growth and momentum seems to have slowed.  Look at Warner's near loss in '14 and with Kaine on the ticket, the results this year.  The gubernatorial race should be interesting next year. 

The Republicans have put up better fights recently then from the period of '05-'12 where little seemed to go right for them, similar to CO.

[Young Conservative]

Georgia will swing back to the GOP if they nominate someone from the establishment or that appeals to the college educated whites. Guaranteed.

[Pericles]

Georgia will swing back to the GOP if they nominate someone from the establishment or that appeals to the college educated whites. Guaranteed.

Trump is the establishment now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Jeb would have won it.

[EpicHistory]

Jeb would have won it.

"Please clap" and "I keep toy turtles in my pocket" Jeb? The man who walks around Boston at night by himself, Jeb? Given what's been happening at VT, yeah, maybe but he would've lost the rest of the country.

[Virginiá]

If anything, Democrats' growth and momentum seems to have slowed.  Look at Warner's near loss in '14 and with Kaine on the ticket, the results this year.  The gubernatorial race should be interesting next year. 

Kaine's largest statewide win prior to 2016 was just shy of 6 points. Considering the differences in presidential races and the fact that he was not the top of the ticket, even half of Clinton's final margin would have been a very decent home state bump. However I am not entirely sure how we would ever truly know how much he contributed in VA this cycle.

Virginia went just shy of D+5 this year. That's very good, all things considered.

The Republicans have put up better fights recently then from the period of '05-'12 where little seemed to go right for them, similar to CO.

Now begins 4 years of Democrats making every election they possibly can a referendum on Trump, just like the GOP-Obama strategy. Trump's abysmal approval ratings could potentially be an large anchor around downballot Republicans after the initial enthusiasm from the presidential election wears off. The GOP candidates next year will need to work hard to keep their races localized.

I'm also interested in seeing if Virginia's tradition of shunning the incumbent president's party in the statewide elections that follow the presidential election hold for the GOP, or if McAuliffe's win put that trend to bed. In a state that is trending Democratic, it's easier to see a Democrat bucking that trend but for a Republican in such an environment, if there is a penalty to be paid, they won't have a lot of room for error.

[EpicHistory]

Virginia went just shy of D+5 this year. That's very good, all things considered.

This statement ignores the #NeverTrump effect, with Egg McMuffin taking 1% of the vote and Gary Johnson taking 3%. Egg McMuffin taking GOP voters is pretty obvious, and data in recent years has shown Libertarians here in Virginia largely take from the GOP as well. So let's do some math.

Trump's 45% + Egg McMuffin's 1% + 1% of Johnson's vote (We'll be extremely conservative with this one) = 47%. Now, studies have shown that the VP can make a 1% to 2% difference in the home-state. Let's say 1% (Still being conservative), and that gets you to either:

Clinton 49% to Trump 48% OR Clinton 50% to Trump 49%

Given that Clinton is projected to win by either 1% to 2% of the popular vote, this means Virginia is still basically even in PVI.

[Donnie]

The same as IO is gone for D.

[Nyvin]

Virginia went just shy of D+5 this year. That's very good, all things considered.

This statement ignores the #NeverTrump effect, with Egg McMuffin taking 1% of the vote and Gary Johnson taking 3%. Egg McMuffin taking GOP voters is pretty obvious, and data in recent years has shown Libertarians here in Virginia largely take from the GOP as well. So let's do some math.

Trump's 45% + Egg McMuffin's 1% + 1% of Johnson's vote (We'll be extremely conservative with this one) = 47%. Now, studies have shown that the VP can make a 1% to 2% difference in the home-state. Let's say 1% (Still being conservative), and that gets you to either:

Clinton 49% to Trump 48% OR Clinton 50% to Trump 49%

Given that Clinton is projected to win by either 1% to 2% of the popular vote, this means Virginia is still basically even in PVI.

So you're going to do all that and "not" add Stein voters or Johnson voters who would've support Clinton over Trump???

Uhhh....

[Fuzzy Bear]

Jeb would have won it.

"Please clap" and "I keep toy turtles in my pocket" Jeb? The man who walks around Boston at night by himself, Jeb? Given what's been happening at VT, yeah, maybe but he would've lost the rest of the country.

This.

Jeb! would have just replayed the most recent electoral map.

[bagelman]

Jeb would have won it.

"Please clap" and "I keep toy turtles in my pocket" Jeb? The man who walks around Boston at night by himself, Jeb? Given what's been happening at VT, yeah, maybe but he would've lost the rest of the country.

This.

Jeb! would have just replayed the most recent electoral map.

At best.

[Plankton5165]

Jeb would have won it.

Jeb? The man who could've hurt his eyes by wearing his hoodie the wrong way?

[EpicHistory]

So you're going to do all that and "not" add Stein voters or Johnson voters who would've support Clinton over Trump???

Uhhh....

As I stated, the majority of Libertarian votes in Virginia come from Republicans and most recently cost the GOP the 2014 Senate race. So if I did further breakdown on their vote, hypothetical Trump would've increased his margin. As for Stein, her voters very clearly were Anti-Clinton leftists, who voted for her out of spite to Clinton (Just like Egg McMuffin).

[libertpaulian]

Nevada and Colorado probably are, too.

She did worse than Obama did in those two states.  I actually think they could have gone for Trump if it weren't for the Billy Bush tapes and the Gary Johnson factor.