Predict President Trump's approval rating one year from now

[ApatheticAustrian]

before i project something like that, i want to know if his approval rating starts on the same level as his general favorability rates.

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55% Approve
40% Disapprove

[JGibson]

63% Disapproval.
33% Approval.
4% Uncertain.

[MasterJedi]

70% Disapproval
25% Approval
5% Uncertain

[Erich Maria Remarque]

70% Disapproval
25% Approval
5% Uncertain

Lol

[Person Man]

Like I said, we can't be really be able to predict anything. It is possible he will be in the 20s next year. It is also possible he will be in the 60s or 70s next year. He will either keep winning or his luck will run out. Easy as that!

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

52 consolidating Republicans and right-leaners as well as a few hold their nose for Hillary centrists. He seems to be leaning toward pragmatism.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

OK, it's been over a year.  Who was closest?

[foxh8er]

Gallup has him near 61% disapproval and 34% approval, so JGibson was very close!

[Mr. Morden]

Gallup has him near 61% disapproval and 34% approval, so JGibson was very close!

This thread was started in the first half of November 2016 though, so a year from then would be about a month ago.  His job approval in the aggregate of polling was in the high 30s then.

[Maxwell]

wow i can't believe I overrated him.

[Dr. MB]

31%

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Trump's aggregate approval on 538 has been around 38% / 58% for the past 2 months or so, so whoever posted something similar to that gets the prize.


My prediction for next November is 33% / 61%

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

*More sweeping probably inaccurate prediction time!*

A year from now I predict

- Mueller will have indicted Trump

- The Republicans have refused to move forward with Trump impeachment

- The economy has a usual crash, but it's made even worse by the incompetence of the administration.

- The Democrats take the majority in the House and Senate, but not by insane margins.

So I'm gonna say 29 approve, 63 disprove. 

[Sumner 1868]

I'm starting to think his floor may actually be the mid-30s. If a recession occurs I can see it being called a grand conspiracy to take him down by INFOWARS and the rest.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

*More sweeping probably inaccurate prediction time!*

A year from now I predict

- Mueller will have indicted Trump

- The Republicans have refused to move forward with Trump impeachment

- The economy has a usual crash, but it's made even worse by the incompetence of the administration.

- The Democrats take the majority in the House and Senate, but not by insane margins.

So I'm gonna say 29 approve, 63 disprove. 

Actually, if they were to take the Senate in 2018 against all odds, it definitely would be by an insane margin in the national Senate vote. the 2012 national Senate results had Democrats winning the collective popular vote by 12 points and winning 25/33 seats. That's quite a bloodbath.

I mean not insane margins for in the context of class 1 seats. Basically just take the 2012 results, shift the the Nevada and Arizona races a couple points to Democrats and make Missouri not a landslide for McCaskill. (I'm also assuming McCain will die before the midterms, meaning two elections in Arizona) A gain of 3 seats is far from a bloodbath. Now the House is a different story.

[Kingpoleon]

Let’s try this again:

30% Approve
57% Disapprove
3% Neutral/Unsure

[Pericles]

62% disapprove, 32% approve(538 tracker)

[°Leprechaun]

62% disapprove, 32% approve(538 tracker)

[Grassroots]

54% Approve
46% Disapprove

This but reversed.

[Joey1996]

 About the same, unless there is some disaster that positively or negatively affects it.

Positive = massive terrorist attack or proactive action by a hostile nation like North Korea/Iran/Venezuela

Negative = economic collapse

[Joey1996]

Just noticed this is a bumped thread

[Bojack Horseman]

27%

[mileslunn]

Probably 33-45%.  He has a solid core of 1/3 who will support him no matter what and he could walk down 5th avenue and shoot someone and still hold that group.  45% if the economy really roars and the benefits trickle down to the middle class as I think over half the population hates him and there is nothing he could do to get them to change their mind on him.  Now I think he could get more than 45% of the popular vote but that will be more due to some of those thinking he is the lesser of two evils or those who dislike both candidates staying home or voting for third parties.

[Metalhead123]

Trump's Approval ratings will remain rather stagnant unless he royally screws up to the point where he alienates the most stalwart supporters or if something horrible happens, I.E a terrorist attack, that brings the country together behind the president.