What happened in Wisconsin?

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- this thread is a bit ridiculous, judging by some of the recent posts here:

Clinton and her unbearable hubris happened.

Rural whites trending Republican.  Suburban whites trending Democrat.  This helped Democrats in states like Colorado and Virginia but hurt them in states like Wisconsin and Michigan.

There are a bunch of counties in Southern/Western Wisconsin that voted for Obama twice and now Trump. Half of the margin might be Milwaukee, but I really want to know what happened in these counties.

Bottom line---- Clinton lost Wisconsin because of a collapse in rural and small-town support among WWC voters.... the decreased Dem turnout in Milwaukie was offset by an improvement in the WOW suburbs....

Now Cynic did provide some interesting data, although it does focus on the CW of "Lower Black turnout in Milwaukie" as what many of y'all are obsessing on, it also shows swing patterns by county, and it does appear that there was a massive swing towards Trump in communities with a large percentage of workers in the paper & pulp mills, as I inquired about in another thread:

If you look at the swing in Northern Wisconsin, it is not coincidental that the biggest swing counties in Northern Wisconsin (Brown, Outgamie, Winnebego) are heavily paper mill counties.

Additionally, if we move a few miles West (Marathon, Portage, & Wood) are also major pulp and paper mill counties....

Y'all can focus everything on Black turnout in Milwaukie and what happened in Kenosha and Racine focused on Blue Collar workers in "traditional" manufacturing plants, while completely ignoring the collapse of Democratic support in rural and small-town Wisconsin....

ElectionsGuy has a really good thread a little further down that is definitely worthy of checking out...

[Wiz in Wis]

Ok--- this thread is a bit ridiculous, judging by some of the recent posts here:

Clinton and her unbearable hubris happened.

Rural whites trending Republican.  Suburban whites trending Democrat.  This helped Democrats in states like Colorado and Virginia but hurt them in states like Wisconsin and Michigan.

There are a bunch of counties in Southern/Western Wisconsin that voted for Obama twice and now Trump. Half of the margin might be Milwaukee, but I really want to know what happened in these counties.

Bottom line---- Clinton lost Wisconsin because of a collapse in rural and small-town support among WWC voters.... the decreased Dem turnout in Milwaukie was offset by an improvement in the WOW suburbs....

Now Cynic did provide some interesting data, although it does focus on the CW of "Lower Black turnout in Milwaukie" as what many of y'all are obsessing on, it also shows swing patterns by county, and it does appear that there was a massive swing towards Trump in communities with a large percentage of workers in the paper & pulp mills, as I inquired about in another thread:

If you look at the swing in Northern Wisconsin, it is not coincidental that the biggest swing counties in Northern Wisconsin (Brown, Outgamie, Winnebego) are heavily paper mill counties.

Additionally, if we move a few miles West (Marathon, Portage, & Wood) are also major pulp and paper mill counties....

Y'all can focus everything on Black turnout in Milwaukie and what happened in Kenosha and Racine focused on Blue Collar workers in "traditional" manufacturing plants, while completely ignoring the collapse of Democratic support in rural and small-town Wisconsin....

ElectionsGuy has a really good thread a little further down that is definitely worthy of checking out...

Your Oregon-ness is showing...

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- this thread is a bit ridiculous, judging by some of the recent posts here:

Clinton and her unbearable hubris happened.

Rural whites trending Republican.  Suburban whites trending Democrat.  This helped Democrats in states like Colorado and Virginia but hurt them in states like Wisconsin and Michigan.

There are a bunch of counties in Southern/Western Wisconsin that voted for Obama twice and now Trump. Half of the margin might be Milwaukee, but I really want to know what happened in these counties.

Bottom line---- Clinton lost Wisconsin because of a collapse in rural and small-town support among WWC voters.... the decreased Dem turnout in Milwaukie was offset by an improvement in the WOW suburbs....

Now Cynic did provide some interesting data, although it does focus on the CW of "Lower Black turnout in Milwaukie" as what many of y'all are obsessing on, it also shows swing patterns by county, and it does appear that there was a massive swing towards Trump in communities with a large percentage of workers in the paper & pulp mills, as I inquired about in another thread:

If you look at the swing in Northern Wisconsin, it is not coincidental that the biggest swing counties in Northern Wisconsin (Brown, Outgamie, Winnebego) are heavily paper mill counties.

Additionally, if we move a few miles West (Marathon, Portage, & Wood) are also major pulp and paper mill counties....

Y'all can focus everything on Black turnout in Milwaukie and what happened in Kenosha and Racine focused on Blue Collar workers in "traditional" manufacturing plants, while completely ignoring the collapse of Democratic support in rural and small-town Wisconsin....

ElectionsGuy has a really good thread a little further down that is definitely worthy of checking out...

Your Oregon-ness is showing...

Nice call out.. didn't even realize I had misspelled Milwaukee... thought all y'all had come out on the Oregon Trail and named the City in Oregon after your hometown....

Still curious about what happened in paper mill counties in Wisconsin  (Think I spelled that correctly) like: Brown, Outgamie, Winnebego

[hopper]

What happened in Wisconsin is that most polling had Hillary up 4-6% points a week before the Election but most polling was wrong for the state. Also, Hillary I think showed up 1 time in Wisconsin during the General Election Campaign as far as appearances. That definitely hurt her that she didn't make a few appearances in the state during the General Campaign Season.

[ElectionsGuy]

I feel like a better question is why did the Democrats lose votes in BOTH Milwaukee among African-Americans AND more rural / small-town regions. Because Democrats need both those voters to win.

The Milwaukee County loss in turnout wasn't that substantial when you consider some of the suburbs swung to the left. The real killer that nobody saw coming (or to the extent, at least) was all the of the backlash in rural Wisconsin. No polls detected that, but really I think the last few weeks killed Clinton, because she didn't visit the Midwest nearly as much as she should have.

[peterthlee]

I feel like a better question is why did the Democrats lose votes in BOTH Milwaukee among African-Americans AND more rural / small-town regions. Because Democrats need both those voters to win.

The Milwaukee County loss in turnout wasn't that substantial when you consider some of the suburbs swung to the left. The real killer that nobody saw coming (or to the extent, at least) was all the of the backlash in rural Wisconsin. No polls detected that, but really I think the last few weeks killed Clinton, because she didn't visit the Midwest nearly as much as she should have.

Yeah, its all about rural resurgence across the country. She wanted to focus on 'winning in a landslide' rather than 'winning majority in Electoral College'. She cloned Obama's strategy which was actually of a little use in 2016.

[Nym90]

Turnout in Wisconsin was down significantly from 2012, about 3 percent fewer votes overall, one of the biggest drops in the nation. That's a factor to not be overlooked.

[RINO Tom]

Turnout in Wisconsin was down significantly from 2012, about 3 percent fewer votes overall, one of the biggest drops in the nation. That's a factor to not be overlooked.

But, as stated, a lot of that drop came from heavily Republican suburbs of Milwaukee ... those folks didn't like Trump, but they weren't voting for Clinton.  I think it's pretty clear that she ran a campaign that lost almost all of the rural appeal Democrats had across the nation besides Western Massachusetts, Vermont, Alaska and to an extent, New Hampshire.

When you look at the drop in rural support (specifically talking Congressionally, here) for Democrats since 2006, it truly is staggering.  People can only come up with total BS excuses like, "well, it was just the DINOs and Dixiecrats 'sorting!'" for so long.

[Nym90]

It was only down by about 6,000 in Waukesha county (237k vs. 243k in 2012), about 2,000 in Washington County (76k vs. 78k in 2012), and 1,000 in Ozaukee (54k vs. 55k).

Whereas in Milwaukee County, turnout was down from 492k ballots to 441k.

I don't dispute the rest of what you said at all, but from a pure numbers standpoint, the dropoff in turnout was much higher in Democratic areas.

[RINO Tom]

It was only down by about 6,000 in Waukesha county (237k vs. 243k in 2012), about 2,000 in Washington County (76k vs. 78k in 2012), and 1,000 in Ozaukee (54k vs. 55k).

Whereas in Milwaukee County, turnout was down from 492k ballots to 441k.

I don't dispute the rest of what you said at all, but from a pure numbers standpoint, the dropoff in turnout was much higher in Democratic areas.

Oh, didn't know that, was just going off of a comment above yours.  Interesting!

[Bojack Horseman]

Republicans blocked 300,000 eligible voters from casting ballots with their ID laws and Trump won Wisconsin by 30,000 votes. You do the math.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Black turnout was down and Trump made a direct promise to the people of Wisconsin that he would bring back jobs, apparently that was enough.

[hopper]

Republicans blocked 300,000 eligible voters from casting ballots with their ID laws and Trump won Wisconsin by 30,000 votes. You do the math.

Only a few black Dem politicians like Obama could have max turnout of the Black Vote like he did nationwide in 2012. Black People made up 12% of the Electorate nationwide in the 2016 Presidential Election not far off their 13% make-up of the US Population nationwide. Black People turned out at their max Population Rate of 13% on Election Day 2012 for Obama. I do wonder if Hillary in 2016 could have won with John Kerry's 2004 vote totals or margin of victory in Milwaukee County.