So what happens now in international affairs?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

You know what I mean.

[parochial boy]

this

[Cashew]

The end of the Liberal international order.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

OK, so Iran. Trump promised to tear up that deal back in the primary, but then again
a) he may have been going through the motions
b) Russia backs Iran
c) he has said the main threat to world peace is (Sunni) Islamism. Does he really care for Israel enough to give a crap?
d) Rouhani will presumably stay in power since Ahmajinedad has been barred from running again

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's everybody for himself now and Russia and/or China will come out on top.

[ag]

It's everybody for himself now and Russia and/or China will come out on top.

EU should fight, at least, regionally, but, yeah, everybody on their own. I do not expect Russia to be very successful in the medium term though: resources are not there. It might cause a big war, but it will loose it. But, yeah, welcome Pax Chinensis .

[Person Man]

It's everybody for himself now and Russia and/or China will come out on top.

EU should fight, at least, regionally, but, yeah, everybody on their own. I do not expect Russia to be very successful in the medium term though: resources are not there. It might cause a big war, but it will loose it. But, yeah, welcome Pax Chinensis .

If they can transition to a modern economy and provide an alternative to the collapsing Western order.

There will be 10 to 20 years of WW I style states against states. We might even have a minor nuclear war between India and Pakistan or Britian/France and Russia or maybe between SK/Japan and NK. I am pretty certain they are wanting to get nuclear weapons now. 

[ag]

It's everybody for himself now and Russia and/or China will come out on top.

EU should fight, at least, regionally, but, yeah, everybody on their own. I do not expect Russia to be very successful in the medium term though: resources are not there. It might cause a big war, but it will loose it. But, yeah, welcome Pax Chinensis .

If they can transition to a modern economy and provide an alternative to the collapsing Western order.

There will be 10 to 20 years of WW I style states against states. We might even have a minor nuclear war between India and Pakistan or Britian/France and Russia or maybe between SK/Japan and NK. I am pretty certain they are wanting to get nuclear weapons now. 

Well, yeah, plausible, though rather optimistic, I would say. If it is just a minor nuclear war, I would say in the end of it, we got out easily.

Proliferation will now be massive. If Philippines, Thailand or Brazil are non-nuclear in 20 years, I will be shocked. And, of course, we have to get the nukes down here ASAP.

[jaichind]

Abe of Japan clearly a loser mostly because of TPP.  Abe bet the farm on TPP as a strategic goal binding Japan to a US lead alliance.  Trump coming in will for sure wreck that.

[Enduro]

More of the same, the world will become further destabilized, the only difference is the speed and to a lesser extent the means.

[Mr. Morden]

The short term question I have now is: What happens to the ongoing US military action in Iraq and Syria?

[Zinneke]

The short term question I have now is: What happens to the ongoing US military action in Iraq and Syria?

He has to keep the military industrial complex happy, so nothing. He'll play good diplomat with Putin and maybe not be as agressive towards Assad, but building a massive security dilemma up in the ME is valuable for the industries he wants to protect.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/12/world/middleeast/donald-trump-syria.html

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[Beet]

My first hard objection to a serious policy.

Trump and Pence railed on Obama and Hillary so hard for weakness in front of the Russia/Iran axis, and for being bad negotiators, but Trump is giving them what they want here, without even asking for anything in return. A good negotiator? No. It's no surprise he wants to prop up Assad, but he should have demanded something from Russia/Iran for it. But I guess they elected him president, so he owes them.

[jaichind]

I am fairly pro-Iran, pro-Russia, pro-Assad. Hopes Trump works with Russia to back up Iran and Assad.

[2952-0-0]

Day 1 of Pax Sinica?

[Crumpets]

- I think the Iran deal stays. It's fallen off the Republican radar, and if people are reintroduced to it with footage of nuclear reactors being rebooted and more and more missile tests, it's bad for the Trump brand.
- Eastern Europe is going to be a total mess - watch for more mass protests in Ukraine, Moldova will likely go back the Russian sphere of influence at least for a few years after Dodon becomes PM, Turkey will probably become a full-blown autocracy, etc.
- ISIL is probably defeated pretty easily, but the area still remains unstable and there are just as many terrorist attacks in Iraq as in 2010-11.
- Terrorism flourishes in Western Europe.
- I don't think East Asia changes too much, except there might be some deal about US troops stationed in Japan.
- Sub-Saharan Africa slowly continues to improve in terms of poverty and disease.
- India and Pakistan may fight another war pretty soon.
- New Start expires, and the US and Russia probably double their stockpiles. Nuclear policy over the next few years is going to be a total mess. I don't think Trump is stupid enough, or his advisors weak enough to actually allow for nuclear war, though.

[Storebought]

Mexico should pursue a nuclear deterrent strategy this very instant.

[jaichind]

Japan Fuji poll:  Trump presidency negative for Japan 68% positive for Japan 18%

[jaichind]

On ROC political circles, especially pro-DPP ones, there is a freakout about TPP and USA withdrawing from Asia Pivot under Trump.  The new DPP regime was counting on a Clinton Administration's Asia pivot as a counterweight to pressure from PRC.  Under Trump there is some hope perhaps the USA might sell ROC more weapons but that is sort of irrelevant compared to the current military-economic power of PRC.

At least in ROC political talk shows there is vindication for famous "Trump girl" 鄭麗文 (Cheng Li-wen.)  Cheng was a rising star in the DPP back in the 90s until she had a falling out with DPP Prez Chen.  She went over to the KMT where she was a KMT MP followed by being the Spokesperson for the ROC PM under the KMT Ma administration.



Cheng frequently appears on political talk shows and has been predicting that Trump will win the GOP nomination and the USA presidency for at least a year now.  She has been steadfast in her prediction week in and week out and commonly mocked on ROC political talk shows for her projection.  Now she has been vindicated.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

- I think the Iran deal stays. It's fallen off the Republican radar, and if people are reintroduced to it with footage of nuclear reactors being rebooted and more and more missile tests, it's bad for the Trump brand.
- Eastern Europe is going to be a total mess - watch for more mass protests in Ukraine, Moldova will likely go back the Russian sphere of influence at least for a few years after Dodon becomes PM, Turkey will probably become a full-blown autocracy, etc.
- ISIL is probably defeated pretty easily, but the area still remains unstable and there are just as many terrorist attacks in Iraq as in 2010-11.
- Terrorism flourishes in Western Europe.
- I don't think East Asia changes too much, except there might be some deal about US troops stationed in Japan.
- Sub-Saharan Africa slowly continues to improve in terms of poverty and disease.
- India and Pakistan may fight another war pretty soon.
- New Start expires, and the US and Russia probably double their stockpiles. Nuclear policy over the next few years is going to be a total mess. I don't think Trump is stupid enough, or his advisors weak enough to actually allow for nuclear war, though.

This seems like a good outline for the likely course of international affairs over the Trump administration. But I've got a couple differences and a couple of additions.

My gut tells me that *something* goes pie-shaped in Southeast Asia. I've got no evidence, and no real rational reason, but I can't shake the feeling.

I think Trump invades some minor country somewhere. Maybe Venezuela, maybe Yemen, maybe a major co-operative operation with the Russians in Syria to wrap up the Islamic State, maybe elsewhere. If the Iran Deal fails, maybe he tries to invade or bomb Iran. (Really bad idea.) He's just not going to be able to resist showing off his manhood by being a War President.

And I think Russia continues to expand its influence in all of the old USSR, not just Moldova.

And finally, while I give it less than a fifty-fifty chance, I wouldn't put it past Trump and Co to stumble into a major war out of pure incompetence and blindness.