Did anyone here predict each state correctly?

[AGA]

I know that the vast majority of predictions from this site were pretty far off. Who got all the states right? Was anyone close on the percentages?

[Senator-elect Spark]

I know that the vast majority of predictions from this site were pretty far off. Who got all the states right? Was anyone close on the percentages?

That would be me. I got 45/50 states correct, which is 90%. I had a feeling Trump would win either MI or PA, I was shocked at Wisconsin. I got CO, MI, WI, NH, & PA wrong. My FL county map is exact along with a few others.

[Mr. Smith]

I got WI, OH, FL, and NC right.

I got NV, NH, PA, and MI wrong.

Michigan was the shocker, totally thought Detroit's black population would save Hillary there.

[muon2]

For me the most interesting prediction is one I posted in June. I didn't use any polls, but I did use the 538 calculator based solely on demographics and turnout. Note that it got WI and PA correct and put MI right at the flipping point. VA was wrong but that might be due to Kaine on the ballot. NH was wrong, but the calculator couldn't forecast a 0.2% margin for Clinton, nor could it get the ME CDs.

I posted this as a prediction, in part because I was surprised at the effect of the 538 calculator on some variables.

I assume about a 6% drop in overall turnout driven by the unpopularity of the major candidates and anticipated negative campaign. That gives a turnout equal to 1996.

College whites 70%-54%R (from 77%-56%R); negative campaigns and disaffected college drop the turnout by 7% as it shifts 2% Dem.

Noncollege whites 53%-70%R (from 57%-62%); the Trump factor plays big here, and the turnout only drops 4% compared to the 6% average.

Blacks 56%-86%D (from 66%-93%D); the lack of Obama on the ticket returns black turnout to previous levels, slightly better than noncollege whites, and though still solid they drop to less than 90% Dem.

Latinos 44%-74%D (from 48%-71%); a drop in turnout equal to noncollege whites and 3% shift to the Dems.

Asians/Other 45%-70%D (from 49%-67%D);  a shift matching that of the Latinos.

Predicted vote Clinton 48.5%, Trump 49.8%. EV Clinton 232 Trump 306.

My later predictions used polling data so I ended up with 5 states wrong - NV, NC, MI, PA and WI and ME 2. Ugh.

[jaichind]

I missed 3 states.  MI WI PA.

[rafta_rafta]

I missed 3 states.  MI WI PA.

[Redban]

I missed MI, WI, PA, and ME-2

[Tender Branson]

I got PA, MI, WI and NV wrong.

But I predicted very close races for PA and MI.

I almost got the national popular vote right though: Hillary by about 1.5 (it is moving in that direction)

[Redban]

All of the people who answered besides me:

Did you truly predict that Trump would take Maine's 2nd district?

[Tender Branson]

All of the people who answered besides me:

Did you truly predict that Trump would take Maine's 2nd district?

I did.

You can see my prediction here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251369.msg5378008#msg5378008

[Tender Branson]

In my Senate predictions, I got 2 wrong: Feingold (WI) and Heck (NV)

In the Gov. predictions, I only got Dutch-named guy wrong (NH)

[jaichind]

All of the people who answered besides me:

Did you truly predict that Trump would take Maine's 2nd district?

I did

[jaichind]

In my Senate predictions, I got 2 wrong: Feingold (WI) and Heck (NV)

In the Gov. predictions, I only got Dutch-named guy wrong (NH)

In Senate I got WI NH and PA wrong
In Gov I only got WV wrong

[Higgs]

I missed 3 states.  MI WI PA.

[alomas]

Me too, MI, WI and PA, though to be honest I believed Clinton was a slight favourite in Florida. I got Maine CD-02 correct.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Ignoring shades, of course.  It's hard to believe that the exact 306-232 map was never posted, but I haven't seen one.

[Crumpets]

I didn't, but going through some of my old posts I found this map from August 2015 that I'm rather fond of with hindsight:

Trump/Sessions 60% 373 EV
Clinton/Sanders 38% 165 EV

Freedom fighters Donald Trump and Jeff Sessions make America great again right in the face of Killary Klinton (D-Benghazi) and her commie stooge Sanders. Trump and Sessions usher in an era of Republican dominance, gaining 2 seats in the Senate in 2016 with an additional 6 in 2018. Iran surrenders to Israel, Mexico takes back all their immigrants paying the US $1 million each for their removal, and Vladimir Putin commits suicide after watching Trump's inauguration, leaving all of Russia's nukes to Trump in his will.

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

Ignoring shades, of course.  It's hard to believe that the exact 306-232 map was never posted, but I haven't seen one.

Well to have all rust belt states minus MN go to Trump (plus the one EV from Maine) combined with Hillary keeping NH in her column is a bit odd to predict.

I'm guessing most people here, like myself, thought Hillary would win anyways. I thought she'd get 279 EVs.

[MT Treasurer]

Got one state wrong:

I know it's a very bold prediction, but here we go:

Clinton: 248 EV
Republican candidate: 290 EV

Democrats win the popular vote by 0.2%

[nclib]

Got one state wrong:

I know it's a very bold prediction, but here we go:

Clinton: 248 EV
Republican candidate: 290 EV

Democrats win the popular vote by 0.2%

Impressive, almost a year out, and predicting PV/EV split, and the one wrong state was the closest.

I predicted a perfect Governors map in 2006.

[Horus]

My final map just before the election was dead on minus Wisconsin and Michigan.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Got one state wrong:

I know it's a very bold prediction, but here we go:

Clinton: 248 EV
Republican candidate: 290 EV

Democrats win the popular vote by 0.2%

Impressive, almost a year out, and predicting PV/EV split, and the one wrong state was the closest.

I predicted a perfect Governors map in 2006.

I had a perfect Senate map in 2014, but that really only involved picking one true upset.

[Reaganfan]

Clinton: 278
Trump: 260

I missed Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Everything else was 100%. I just couldn't imagine Wisconsin. Michigan and Pennsylvania are always fools gold. Not anymore.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

All of the people who answered besides me:

Did you truly predict that Trump would take Maine's 2nd district?

Trump led in the polls there.

[Reaganfan]

All of the people who answered besides me:

Did you truly predict that Trump would take Maine's 2nd district?

Yes.