When did you realize that it was almost certain that Trump would win?
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  When did you realize that it was almost certain that Trump would win?
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Author Topic: When did you realize that it was almost certain that Trump would win?  (Read 2113 times)
AGA
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« on: November 09, 2016, 08:20:49 PM »
« edited: November 10, 2016, 09:39:36 AM by Chrome »

When did you first realize that Trump almost certainly would win the election? I felt fine about Trump leading in Florida because I felt that Clinton still had had paths to victory.

I got concerned when I saw how poorly Clinton was doing in Wisconsin, and I saw Trump flipping many counties that Obama won by good margins in 2012. I did not accept that Trump would win until I went back to my TV at 12 AM to see Trump leading in Pennsylvania and maintaining is lead in Wisconsin and Michigan.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2016, 08:23:38 PM »

When the second big batch of votes came into Wayne County, MI and I saw that she would not have near good enough margins to carry the state. Michigan ended up being really close, but that's where it was lost.
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2016, 08:25:12 PM »

The margins in rural KY, being competitive in VA, & FL.
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Pyro
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« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2016, 08:27:06 PM »

When Virginia and Minnesota looked competitive.
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Desroko
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« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2016, 08:28:23 PM »

Mi, WI, and PA being too close to call and not too early to call.
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ericpolitico
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« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2016, 08:38:24 PM »

When she is surprisingly struggled to win Virginia, thats it
It was 2014 Warner deja vu

and getting worse, when she is trailing in Wisconsin and Michigan
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2016, 08:39:40 PM »

when his vote share suddenly jumped in FL/NC and michigan (!!!) of all places became competetive.

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Ljube
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« Reply #7 on: November 09, 2016, 08:39:46 PM »

Michigan.
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TC 25
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« Reply #8 on: November 09, 2016, 08:40:18 PM »

Hopeful - seeing the big early lead in Virginia;

In the ballgame - Florida lead of 100,000 votes with over 90 percent in.

Ecstatic - North Carolina moving Trump's way and the big lead in Ohio.

Exuberant and jumping for joy that it was won - Leads in Wi, MI and  PA and seeing a Dem acquaintance look as white as a ghost.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #9 on: November 09, 2016, 08:42:02 PM »

and btw....for those who somehow think trump did well in VA....

obama only squeaked out a victory in 2008 and 2012...by now it's a super-safe blue state in a republican wave year.
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Grumpier Than Thou
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« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2016, 08:43:45 PM »

When I went to bed and Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin hadn't been called yet.

I woke up two hours later to a CNN alert projecting he'd won it.
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kyc0705
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« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2016, 08:44:57 PM »

The first sign Clinton was in trouble was a tight race in Virginia. It turned to real danger for her when turnout in cities like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Detroit was lower than expected. The deal was sealed when Minnesota and Wisconsin started reporting results.
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Perlen vor den Schweinen
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« Reply #12 on: November 09, 2016, 08:47:59 PM »

The moment when "to-be former Senator" Ron Johnson won, I knew the blue wall was about to be smashed. There was simply nothing pointing to Johnson winning unless Trump was winning Wisconsin... and thus greatly exceeding expectations elsewhere.

It's amazing nothing pointed to Trump winning big league. This election is... something else, to say the least. It will bring forward a VERY interesting new chapter in American politics.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #13 on: November 09, 2016, 08:49:11 PM »

once again....what tight race in VA?

everyone knows that in PA the big cities come first - and in VA last.

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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #14 on: November 09, 2016, 08:51:51 PM »

Comeyghazi.


Everyone else here was certain it'd blow over...not me.

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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #15 on: November 09, 2016, 10:41:04 PM »

When the second big batch of votes came into Wayne County, MI and I saw that she would not have near good enough margins to carry the state. Michigan ended up being really close, but that's where it was lost.

Pretty much this.

Also when Winnebago County, WI went Trump, I knew the state, and therefore the election, were his.
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Buzz
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« Reply #16 on: November 09, 2016, 10:53:48 PM »

1. Seeing Virginia close was an eye opener
2. When Florida looked like Trump would win and NC and OH we're basically locks.
3. I knew for sure when Wisconsin and Michigan we're going in his favor
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bilaps
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« Reply #17 on: November 09, 2016, 10:56:43 PM »

First I thought it was over when looking at MI map but when the second wave of votes came from Kent county and Clinton was actually won that wave and closed that gap I reconsider.

However, Wisconsin was very clear, after Dane county was around 50% it was over.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #18 on: November 09, 2016, 10:59:02 PM »

About 8:30.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #19 on: November 09, 2016, 11:04:46 PM »

when his vote share suddenly jumped in FL/NC and michigan (!!!) of all places became competetive.

I kept hoping for a bit after this, but that was when I started to get that sick feeling in the pit of my stomach that I still have.
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Frodo
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« Reply #20 on: November 09, 2016, 11:08:49 PM »

After Florida and Ohio were called for Trump.  Another factor was how the Clinton team kept insisting there was still a path to 270.  Anytime a campaign (especially one you support) starts to insist all is not lost, then you know you've lost.  
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #21 on: November 09, 2016, 11:10:49 PM »

I waited for Pennsylvania to be called, although others went much earlier.

Because it looked like the possibility of 269-269 at one stage.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #22 on: November 09, 2016, 11:11:34 PM »

Indiana being called for Trump at poll closing time was the first sign.

After that I wasn't able to see returns until roughly 9:00, but by that point he was leading in Florida with over 70% in, leading in Virginia and narrowing the gap in Ohio and North Carolina. That was the second sign.

When Ohio was called for Trump by a large margin at 10:30, that was when I realized.

Trump leading in Wisconsin and Michigan clinched it.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #23 on: November 09, 2016, 11:11:41 PM »

Pennsylvania.
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #24 on: November 09, 2016, 11:17:39 PM »
« Edited: November 09, 2016, 11:19:18 PM by Trumpsucks!!! »

About ten minutes before the board shut down! He was getting record support in rural areas of Ky, IN and by 8:30pm est the same was happening in VA and Florida. I knew at that time we were finished. Sadly, I had to deal with the pain without DU or this board. I mean wtf?
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