2022 US Senate elections

[Blackacre]

Dem targets:

FL
GA
NC
PA
WI
Maybe AZ

GOP targets:

CO
IL
NV
NH

Add Iowa to Dem targets if Grassley retires, and add Ohio if it's a Trump midterm

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democratic midterm:
Relative wash. Dems win PA and maybe one more (FL/NC--open seat), GOP gains NV.

[MT Treasurer]

President Trump/Republican president:

Ratings:

Final results?

Guess: D+5, with Democrats winning in AK, AZ, NC, GA and PA, and narrowly losing in WI, IA, MO (Blunt retires) and FL.

Democratic president:

Final results?

Guess: D+2, with Democrats winning in AZ and GA, but barely losing in PA and AK. Could easily be a better result for Ds as well, though.

[jamestroll]

yea... noo

Not even going to begin to discuss this

[Orser67]

Potentially competitive states:

Trump pres in 2022: D+8

Dem pres in 2022: R+2

[This account no longer in use.]

Trump as president:

Democrat as president:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This was suppose to be the map in 2016, but with Joe Biden or Booker, this can be the map as well and Dems will win it. Optimistic about Ohio, PA, WI, NC and FL next time

[Politician]

Democratic midterm:

2nd Trump midterm:

[Orser67]

I'm making no assumptions about retirements, except for Ron Johnson in WI and Richard Burr in NC. Also, I'm just going to pretend that AZ is an open seat.

Dem midterm:

Republican midterm:

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Rumor is that Toomey isn't running for a third term. He wants to go back to the heritage foundation. PA Dems want AG Shapiro to run. I'd rate PA-Sen as Likely D because of how large and powerful the democratic bench is (Lamb, Fetterman, Shapiro, Wolf)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dem targets:

FL
GA
NC
PA
WI
Maybe AZ

GOP targets:

CO
IL
NV
NH

LOL no.

[libertpaulian]

^Maggie Hassan's seat is Lean R? The GOP has like no one who could run against her, she is one of the most popular Senators, won in a GOP wave year and is battle-tested, and the state is rapidly trending away from Republicans. She'll probably break 60%, especially if Trump or Warren is president.

LOL, 2016 wasn't a GOP wave year.  The GOP president lost the popular vote, and the party itself lost seats in both chambers of Congress.

Now that I think about it, 2016 was a replica of 2000.  Last term of a Democratic President, Republican wins by a constitutional technicality, and Democrats make gains in Congress, with the GOP barely hanging on in the Senate.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

^Maggie Hassan's seat is Lean R? The GOP has like no one who could run against her, she is one of the most popular Senators, won in a GOP wave year and is battle-tested, and the state is rapidly trending away from Republicans. She'll probably break 60%, especially if Trump or Warren is president.

LOL, 2016 wasn't a GOP wave year.  The GOP president lost the popular vote, and the party itself lost seats in both chambers of Congress.

Now that I think about it, 2016 was a replica of 2000.  Last term of a Democratic President, Republican wins by a constitutional technicality, and Democrats make gains in Congress, with the GOP barely hanging on in the Senate.

He means 2014 GOV.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I disagree that Dems won't win WI and PA and NV under a Dem president

[Skill and Chance]

With the 2018 results (mostly) in, 2022 now looks like less of an obvious loss for Republicans even as 2020 looks significantly better than thought for Democrats.  Pennsylvania is the obvious flip, like Colorado in 2020, but WI is a very plausible R hold and the rest of the Midwestern seats are probably out of play statewide unless it's a pretty big wave.  NC is promising, and GA should be contestable by then, but FL is going to be harder than expected.  Maybe Kansas could get interesting by then?

[Figueira]

With the 2018 results (mostly) in, 2022 now looks like less of an obvious loss for Republicans even as 2020 looks significantly better than thought for Democrats.  Pennsylvania is the obvious flip, like Colorado in 2020, but WI is a very plausible R hold and the rest of the Midwestern seats are probably out of play statewide unless it's a pretty big wave.  NC is promising, and GA should be contestable by then, but FL is going to be harder than expected.  Maybe Kansas could get interesting by then?

Not sure how you got "Republicans are more favored in Wisconsin than they were before" from the 2018 results.

[Skill and Chance]

With the 2018 results (mostly) in, 2022 now looks like less of an obvious loss for Republicans even as 2020 looks significantly better than thought for Democrats.  Pennsylvania is the obvious flip, like Colorado in 2020, but WI is a very plausible R hold and the rest of the Midwestern seats are probably out of play statewide unless it's a pretty big wave.  NC is promising, and GA should be contestable by then, but FL is going to be harder than expected.  Maybe Kansas could get interesting by then?

Not sure how you got "Republicans are more favored in Wisconsin than they were before" from the 2018 results.

State Senate gains + Walker almost holding on + minimal State House gains + no CD flips (with Bryce losing by double digits).

[Pericles]

Democratic midterm; I see very few pickup opportunities for the GOP, NV and CO are probably even more forbidding by then. AZ is probably still gettable though and NH is pretty competitive, so net R+1 or +2(depending on if Democrats win McCain's seat in 2020).

Republican midterm; Democrats make major gains, I think it would be net D+7(if the GOP wins in 2020 Arizona probably doesn't go Democrat at the Senate or presidential level). By 2022 Grassley's seat is probably open. Most of the other gains are in states that aren't that much of a hard lift for Dems(not double-digit Trump states), so it's possible Democrats could get lucky and make even bigger gains.

[ElectionsGuy]

R Targets: AZ (if D's win in 2020), NV, NH
R Longshots: CO

D Targets: AZ (if R's win in 2020), FL, GA, IA*, NC, PA, WI
D Longshots: AK, MO, OH

*Assuming Grassely retires, he'll be 89.

[YE]

R Targets: AZ (if D's win in 2020), NV, NH
R Longshots: CO

D Targets: AZ (if R's win in 2020), FL, GA, IA*, NC, PA, WI
D Longshots: AK, MO, OH

*Assuming Grassely retires, he'll be 89.

NV should be an R longshot. Republicans only have one statewide officer left and she'll be 71 years old in 2022. No real Congressional bench. Unless Sandoval runs, this one is right there with Colorado

Sandoval (D) wouldn’t win a GOP primary anymore.

[lfromnj]

R Targets: AZ (if D's win in 2020), NV, NH
R Longshots: CO

D Targets: AZ (if R's win in 2020), FL, GA, IA*, NC, PA, WI
D Longshots: AK, MO, OH

*Assuming Grassely retires, he'll be 89.

NV should be an R longshot. Republicans only have one statewide officer left and she'll be 71 years old in 2022. No real Congressional bench. Unless Sandoval runs, this one is right there with Colorado

Sandoval (D) wouldn’t win a GOP primary anymore.

HAVE WE LITERALLY LEARNT NOTHING ABOUT RETREAD GOVERNORS RUNNING FOR SENATE.

[ElectionsGuy]

R Targets: AZ (if D's win in 2020), NV, NH
R Longshots: CO

D Targets: AZ (if R's win in 2020), FL, GA, IA*, NC, PA, WI
D Longshots: AK, MO, OH

*Assuming Grassely retires, he'll be 89.

NV should be an R longshot. Republicans only have one statewide officer left and she'll be 71 years old in 2022. No real Congressional bench. Unless Sandoval runs, this one is right there with Colorado

Nevada hasn't been trending hard to the left like Colorado has been. Just because they're losing a lot right now doesn't mean they can't compete. I can make the argument that because Democrats never win in Florida its a longshot, but that's obviously not logical.

[Roll Roons]

R Targets: AZ (if D's win in 2020), NV, NH
R Longshots: CO

D Targets: AZ (if R's win in 2020), FL, GA, IA*, NC, PA, WI
D Longshots: AK, MO, OH

*Assuming Grassely retires, he'll be 89.

NV should be an R longshot. Republicans only have one statewide officer left and she'll be 71 years old in 2022. No real Congressional bench. Unless Sandoval runs, this one is right there with Colorado

Sandoval (D) wouldn’t win a GOP primary anymore.

HAVE WE LITERALLY LEARNT NOTHING ABOUT RETREAD GOVERNORS RUNNING FOR SENATE.

To be fair, Nevada isn't as blue as Tennessee/Indiana are red.

[lfromnj]

R Targets: AZ (if D's win in 2020), NV, NH
R Longshots: CO

D Targets: AZ (if R's win in 2020), FL, GA, IA*, NC, PA, WI
D Longshots: AK, MO, OH

*Assuming Grassely retires, he'll be 89.

NV should be an R longshot. Republicans only have one statewide officer left and she'll be 71 years old in 2022. No real Congressional bench. Unless Sandoval runs, this one is right there with Colorado

Sandoval (D) wouldn’t win a GOP primary anymore.

HAVE WE LITERALLY LEARNT NOTHING ABOUT RETREAD GOVERNORS RUNNING FOR SENATE.

To be fair, Nevada isn't as blue as Tennessee/Indiana are red.

Tommy Thompson.
Nuff said.

[MT Treasurer]

Assuming Dems win AZ in 2020 and Burr/Johnson don’t change their mind on running for reelection:

Trump midterm

Democratic president