Could Trump see a major primary challenger in 2020?

[Deblano]

Assuming Trump runs for reelection in 2020, could he see a major GOP presidential primary challenger?

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I think he could get one of the ex-Never Trumpers (maybe Sasse) and they could end up winning a couple states like Ted Kennedy in 1980 (to continue with the Trump=Carter parallel).

[Leinad]

If he does poorly as President there will be significant appetite for a primary challenge given his unpopularity with the electorate at large--if someone wants to do it and thinks they can, it'll probably happen. If he does well I don't see how anyone could successfully do such a thing, and therefore no one competent enough to threaten him would try.

[Indy Texas]

I'll bet on it, though not much may come out of it.

The likelihood of him slaughtering one of the GOP's sacred cows at some point is very high.

[Lincoln Republican]

If he performs poorly, of course he could.

If he performs well, he would receive no serious primary challenge.

[sentinel]

We should wait at least a few days into his presidency and then furiously debate this.

[TDwest6]

If he disrupts the wishes of the people who voted him in, then he shall certinly.

[Mister Mets]

Yeah.

There are a few ways.

He could get an establishment opponent if he's controversial in certain ways.

If he governs as a typical Republican, he might have a challenger from his wing calling him a sellout.

If he's too moderate in office, he might have a far-right opponent from the Cruz wing.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Cruz or Sasse.

[Enduro]

It completely depends on how his term goes.

[Ronnie]

It's possible, but I have a feeling anyone who tries would not be high-profile, and would probably get crushed.  I doubt Donald would even show up to any debates, unless his hypothetical opponent(s) gained real traction in polls.

[MasterJedi]

If it goes as bad as we think it will then yes.

[Ronnie]

If it goes as bad as we think it will then yes.

Keep in mind that the Republican base perceives reality very differently than Americans as a whole.  As long as Trump tosses out some red meat in both policy and rhetoric every so often, he'll probably be fine.

[beaver2.0]

It's too early to say.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Yes,

This would be a stone cold certainty.

[Mr. Morden]

Among Republican politicians currently holding major elected office, I'd say Justin Amash is the most likely to challenge him.  If not him, then someone else from the "Freedom Movement", or whatever you want to call it.

Seems less likely that he'll get a challenge from the "moderate" wing of the party.

[Inmate Trump]

Kasich 2020!

[windjammer]

Of course he will get one but he will obviously crush him

[Blair]

For what it's worth you have to do awfully as President; or be seen as an awful campaigner (George Bush snr) to get challenged. There was talk of a Jesse Jackson challenge to Clinton in '96, there was suppose to be an anti-war candidate against Bush and some die-hards wanted to go after Obama.

The thing with Trump is that after winning both elections he'll be seen as being very effective; all depends on what his Presidency is like though

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

For what it's worth you have to do awfully as President; or be seen as an awful campaigner (George Bush snr) to get challenged. There was talk of a Jesse Jackson challenge to Clinton in '96, there was suppose to be an anti-war candidate against Bush and some die-hards wanted to go after Obama.

Haha, Dick Morris was trying, before fortunately seeing some sense, to have Jesse run as independent. It went something like this:

"Are you f**king crazy, Dick?"
"Not at all. Jackson will take at most 5% of black votes away from us but deliver 20% of those who wouldn't never vote for Clinton otherwise"


Blair is totally correct, by the way. Really unpopular or embattled Presidents were historically likely to receive a strong primary challenge. And while never one was actually unseated, these insurgent runs did a lot of damage: Truman in 1948, Johnson in 1968, Ford in 1976, Carter in 1980, Bush Sr. in 1992... The first two decided to drop out, the latter three went on to lose the GE.

[Frodo]

Depends on how successful his presidency is, but if he winds being as unfortunate as President Jimmy Carter was in the realms of foreign policy and the economy, he could be facing his own version of Ted Kennedy.

[Soonerdem]

Of course he could, like Obama could have been challenged by bernie sanders, but it won't happen unless his campaign is either unpopular with the hard populist right or has a lot of scandals

[Mister Mets]

For what it's worth you have to do awfully as President; or be seen as an awful campaigner (George Bush snr) to get challenged. There was talk of a Jesse Jackson challenge to Clinton in '96, there was suppose to be an anti-war candidate against Bush and some die-hards wanted to go after Obama.

The thing with Trump is that after winning both elections he'll be seen as being very effective; all depends on what his Presidency is like though

I think the political environment has changed since then. Presidential campaigns serve to help people promote themselves and get publicity for their ideas.

Obama avoided a challenge because he had broad appeal to the party, and because no prominent Democrat wanted to hurt the career of the first black President. Trump has no such advantage.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Yeah.

There are a few ways.

He could get an establishment opponent if he's controversial in certain ways.

If he governs as a typical Republican, he might have a challenger from his wing calling him a sellout.

If he's too moderate in office, he might have a far-right opponent from the Cruz wing.

All are possible.

But if he's personally popular, he will not have a primary.  Trump's surprising showing is the reason Pat Toomey and Ron Johnson were re-elected.  The only reason.  He's the reason Kelly Ayotte almost made it back.  He's the reason Scott Young upset Evan Bayh.  Principle be damned, incumbent Republicans are not going to sabotage a President they think is popular and will help their re-election chances.