Will Orange County, CA be titanium D in 2024/2028?
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  Will Orange County, CA be titanium D in 2024/2028?
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Poll
Question: Will Orange County, CA voted for Democrats by more than 10 points in 2024/2028?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 45

Author Topic: Will Orange County, CA be titanium D in 2024/2028?  (Read 1825 times)
peterthlee
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« on: November 09, 2016, 10:06:05 PM »

In spite of the 'bitter' fact that the whole country swang Republican, Clinton won Orange County, CA by nearly 5 percent, an inverse of Mitt Romney in 2012.
Will Orange County, CA be solid Dem hold in 2024 or 2028?
Feel free to discuss.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2016, 10:47:13 AM »

No, I don't think so.  Heck, an even semi-popular incumbent Trump probably wins it...
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peterthlee
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« Reply #2 on: December 27, 2016, 08:47:26 PM »
« Edited: December 27, 2016, 08:50:18 PM by peterthlee »

In the end, Orange County, CA voted as left as New Mexico, a likely to strong blue state.
I expect Dems will win it by around 10 points in 2020.
----------------------------------------------------------
Typing error: the poll question ought to be 'Will Orange County, CA vote voted for Democrats by at least 10 points in 2024/2028?'
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: December 27, 2016, 09:41:23 PM »
« Edited: December 27, 2016, 09:46:58 PM by MT Treasurer »

In 2024, after two terms of Trump? Almost certainly. If a Democrat wins in 2020 and the Republicans nominate someone like Kasich or Rubio (probably not happening anyway), I could maybe see them making it close, but I doubt it.

The trend is definitely there.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #4 on: December 27, 2016, 10:26:41 PM »

No, I don't think so.  Heck, an even semi-popular incumbent Trump probably wins it...
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SWE
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« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2016, 03:08:29 PM »

Orange Country will never vote Democratic again.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2016, 04:37:12 PM »

Orange Country will never vote Democratic again.

Nah. I think you (and RINO Tom) are making the assumption that OC's swing to Democrats was purely on the backs of suburban Republicans turned off by Trump who defected for one election only. That's certainly a part of it, sure, but more importantly, Orange County is extremely diverse despite it's stereotype as an all-white County and has a massively growing Hispanic and Asian population. I think Solid D status is certainly possible in the future.

In 2012, Obama only narrowly lost the county to Romney, a perfect fit for Newport Beach types.

Oh, I don't dispute that.  I'm just thinking that by 2020 it will still be White enough that it will vote for Trump.

You brought up a good point: this image of rich, White OC residents becoming Democrats is nothing short of absurd.  Comparing OC's demographics to its margins, I think it's fairly obvious that even WITH defections (which surely happened, but I do think THOSE voters aren't going to become Democrats ... why would they?), Orange County Whites voted solidly for Trump and even more solidly for downballot Republicans.  It's the diversity that is making OC closer.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2016, 12:07:53 AM »

Not titanium D, but basically where San Diego county is now.
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Sbane
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« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2016, 12:21:53 AM »

Orange Country will never vote Democratic again.

Nah. I think you (and RINO Tom) are making the assumption that OC's swing to Democrats was purely on the backs of suburban Republicans turned off by Trump who defected for one election only. That's certainly a part of it, sure, but more importantly, Orange County is extremely diverse despite it's stereotype as an all-white County and has a massively growing Hispanic and Asian population. I think Solid D status is certainly possible in the future.

In 2012, Obama only narrowly lost the county to Romney, a perfect fit for Newport Beach types.

Oh, I don't dispute that.  I'm just thinking that by 2020 it will still be White enough that it will vote for Trump.

You brought up a good point: this image of rich, White OC residents becoming Democrats is nothing short of absurd.  Comparing OC's demographics to its margins, I think it's fairly obvious that even WITH defections (which surely happened, but I do think THOSE voters aren't going to become Democrats ... why would they?), Orange County Whites voted solidly for Trump and even more solidly for downballot Republicans.  It's the diversity that is making OC closer.

Yeah, but who are those white people who are moving into OC? Young professionals working in IT and biotechnology. They aren't voting for Trump or any Republicans tainted by him anytime soon.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2016, 10:41:55 AM »

Probably not.  The main reason Hillary got it is because Trump bled what little support the GOP still has with upper-class suburban voters.  If Republicans had nominated a stronger candidate (especially a moderate or a more mainstream conservative), then they would've held Orange County, and they probably would've won back other suburban counties like Hamilton County, OH, and DuPage County, IL.
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AGA
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« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2016, 09:54:20 PM »

No, Democratic Orange County is just a Trump phenomenon. It's still quite Republican overall.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #11 on: December 30, 2016, 10:11:22 PM »

Orange County didn't flip just because wealthy white voters crossed over, it flipped because the northern and less wealthy part of the county went Democratic in a big way. Places like Westminster, Garden Grove and Fountain Valley had huge swings that suggest that the Asian vote shifted heavily away from Republicans. Democrats also picked up an Assembly seat and a State Senate seat in Orange County, while the Republican registration edge is down to less than 3% and dropping. This isn't an anomaly, it's something that has been happening for a long time and Trump just sped it up.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: December 31, 2016, 12:56:18 AM »

Orange County didn't flip just because wealthy white voters crossed over, it flipped because the northern and less wealthy part of the county went Democratic in a big way. Places like Westminster, Garden Grove and Fountain Valley had huge swings that suggest that the Asian vote shifted heavily away from Republicans. Democrats also picked up an Assembly seat and a State Senate seat in Orange County, while the Republican registration edge is down to less than 3% and dropping. This isn't an anomaly, it's something that has been happening for a long time and Trump just sped it up.

Winner winner chicken dinner
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ClassiCoolidge
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« Reply #13 on: December 31, 2016, 01:16:01 AM »

I live near OC and Republican turnout was very low due to unpopularity with Trump. Hispanics make up a large portion of the county and as stated many times, they had a large turnout. The Hillary vote was overwhelmingly coming from Santa Ana and parts of Anaheim. I believe this was a one time thing. What I'm curious is if other CA counties will be DEM strongholds in future elections like Fresno, San Diego, and other CA counties that tilt blue.
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ClassiCoolidge
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« Reply #14 on: December 31, 2016, 12:16:23 PM »

I live near OC and Republican turnout was very low due to unpopularity with Trump. Hispanics make up a large portion of the county and as stated many times, they had a large turnout. The Hillary vote was overwhelmingly coming from Santa Ana and parts of Anaheim. I believe this was a one time thing. What I'm curious is if other CA counties will be DEM strongholds in future elections like Fresno, San Diego, and other CA counties that tilt blue.

Orange and San Diego seem like the most immediate concerns for California Republicans. If the Republicans think they've hit rock bottom in California, then they're in for a world of hurt because there's A LOT of room left to fall in Congressional and legislative numbers in those two counties alone. Trump held up surprisingly well in Fresno and Riverside, if it's any consolation. He barely did any worse than Romney there, so just MAYBE those counties' trends have stopped, though it's still too soon to tell. But yeah, Orange County in particular has the potential to be absolute hell for Republicans over the next four to eight years, and after that, it might be too late for them to reverse the damage. This will probably also play out to a similar extent in Maricopa, Gwinnett, Cobb, Fort Bend, and other counties like it.

It is a concern for Republicans, indeed. I still think the OC thing was a one time Trump thing but
I may be wrong. And yes, I agree that Democrats could go after some more traditionally Republican counties like Kern,Madera, Tulare, etc. The only solid Republican counties left in the state are the ones in the far north like Modoc and Lassen. Trump got around 70% of the vote up there.
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« Reply #15 on: December 31, 2016, 01:26:35 PM »

Why not go all out and just put a wall around California and make it a ONE PARTY country? Let the people vote on it and congress vote.
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