Impact of Trump Victory on US-led Liberal World Order

[Frodo]

Now that it's clear Trump has won the White House, what impact will his victory have upon the United States and its status as the world superpower?

Commentators are predicting that we will turn protectionist and isolationist as the US turns inward, thus imperiling the US-led liberal world order built up in the decades following the Second World War.

[2952-0-0]

The only other power with a vested interest in, and capable of, saving the US-led post-WW2 order is the People's Republic of China. Strange, but true. But only as much as it serves its own commercial interests. Then China will rebuild it under its image.

Any diplomat in Tokyo or Seoul will be calculating whether to reconcile with a boorish but still free-trading and rational regional hegemon, or beg an erratic and resentful "ally" to continue "protecting" them. Something tells me sooner or later they will pick the former. Donald Trump doesn't care and doesn't want to care about the intricate nuances of Taiwan. Its days as a de facto independent entity are numbered. Vietnam will join the Philippines and Malaysia and resign itself to Chinese dominance of the South China Sea. They'll still be allowed maritime access...on China's terms. The tributary system is basically re-established.

Further afield, China will suddenly emerge as the world power providing mature and steady leadership. It's not in the Chinese mentality to play the superpower, but it must start learning fast. If you're an official in Nairobi, Berlin, or even Mexico, would you feel more comfortable talking to Washington or Beijing?

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

I predict that US foreign policy won't be radically different than it has been in the last two decades.