Remaining votes (Update: about 500K ballots left to count nationwide)

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Hopefully this gives Clinton a nice cushy PV margin. If only PA/MI/WI had robust early voting...

[vileplume]

How long will it take to count them all?

[amdcpus]

and with that, republicans lose the PV in 6 of 7 elections, historic margins afaik.

that split happening 2 times in 20 years is something very rare too.....

Uh 1876 and 1888?

[Likely Voter]

A lot of the remaining ballots are provisional, so up to 1/3 could end up being thrown out.  Still it looks like there will be more total votes than 2012, but not much more and likely not more than 2008. 

It will be interesting to see if in the end Trump ends up with more votes than Romney. He probably will but not a lot more. That could mean that Bush would still have the record for the most votes for a Republican at 62m. That would mean that for four elections in a row the GOP candidate got between 60m-62m, while the Dem candidate varied from 59m-69m.

[Sorenroy]

A lot of the remaining ballots are provisional, so up to 1/3 could end up being thrown out.  Still it looks like there will be more total votes than 2012, but not much more and likely not more than 2008.

According to electproject.org, in 2008 there were 132,609,063 ballots counted and in 2016 there are an estimated 131,741,500 ballots counted. I also noticed that this had updated since this morning from around 129 million. Does this estimate include those seven million ballots that are not yet included? Because if it does not, they will easily push the total number of ballots cast past the 2008 number.

[Likely Voter]

I was adding the estimated outstanding (minus an estimated discarded) to the Atlas number, which would end up to be around 130-131m.  Maybe that is what electproject.org is doing. If the estimated outstanding is added on top of their 129, then yes 2016 would set a new record. 

Not sure if electproject.org is factoring in the uncounted estimate or not.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

CA won't even know how many uncounted ballots there are until Monday. State law gives them up to three days after the election to arrive at the county registrar as long as they were postmarked on or before Election Day. However, this Friday is Veterans' Day, so he deadline is extended to Monday.

[Tender Branson]

CA update (without San Diego and 2 other counties):

The official total — 4,362,087 ballots — will undoubtedly change and possibly even grow over the next few days. Three counties, including vote-rich San Diego County, did not submit an estimate of unprocessed ballots for Thursday night's statewide report.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-there-are-more-than-4-million-ballots-1478828215-htmlstory.html

San Diego has more than 600K ballots left, as I posted earlier. So CA has about 5 million ballots left (maybe more because ballots will come in until next Monday if they are postmarked by Nov. 8 )

[Tender Branson]

UT has about 250.000 ballots left to count:

https://www.ksl.com/?sid=42155356&nid=148

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully this gives Clinton a nice cushy PV margin. If only PA/MI/WI had robust early voting...

Doesn't change a thing: see FL and NC.

[jaichind]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/htmlview?sle=true#gid=19

Is the current count (128,542,304) (Clinton 61,292,712 and Trump 60,565,143)

http://www.electproject.org/2016g

Is projected votes (133,983,600)

If so it seems there are still around 5.5 million votes out there of which around 3.7 million of them are in CA.  Under these assumptions Trump will exceed 62 million votes and beat out Bush II 2004 vote totals while Clinton will miss out of Obama 2012 vote total by over a million votes.

[jaichind]

Looking at the estimated votes per state and looking at what has been counted already.  I did a back of the envelope calculation based on the premise that votes coming to be counted matches existing vote shares of votes counted already.   That gives us

Total votes: 134.1 million

Clinton    64.44 million votes  48.1%
Trump     62.67 million votes  46.8%

For a Clinton win of 1.3%

States which still have a lot of votes outstanding are AZ OH AK CA MT NE WA VW WY

[amdcpus]

Looking at the estimated votes per state and looking at what has been counted already.  I did a back of the envelope calculation based on the premise that votes coming to be counted matches existing vote shares of votes counted already.   That gives us

Total votes: 134.1 million

Clinton    64.44 million votes  48.1%
Trump     62.67 million votes  46.8%

For a Clinton win of 1.3%

States which still have a lot of votes outstanding are AZ OH AK CA MT NE WA VW WY

Utah,Oregon and Colorado all have lots of votes coming in still, I checked their BOE websites and they have about 150,000 votes added already that haven't been reflected on any of the vote aggregating websites.

[rbt48]

Voting and vote counting in too many states is becoming overly complex and drawn out.  Personally, I would prefer us to be like most of Europe where you vote on election day unless you have a verifiable absence.  Early voting and mail in voting (e.g., Oregon) render early and prompt tabulation achievable.

[Seriously?]

Looking at the estimated votes per state and looking at what has been counted already.  I did a back of the envelope calculation based on the premise that votes coming to be counted matches existing vote shares of votes counted already.   That gives us

Total votes: 134.1 million

Clinton    64.44 million votes  48.1%
Trump     62.67 million votes  46.8%

For a Clinton win of 1.3%

States which still have a lot of votes outstanding are AZ OH AK CA MT NE WA VW WY

That's roughly what the NYT was estimating (1.2%) before they took down the projection from their website.

[jaichind]

Turnout patterns was a friend of Trump.  A back-of-the-envelope calculation based on the assumption that the vote shares per state stays the same but turnout rates are the same in 2016 as 2012 yields that result goes from a projected Clinton 48.1% Trump 46.8% to Clinton 48.2% Trump 46.6%.   

[Young Conservative]

To those who keep questioning: Wisconsin is 100% counted, as is california.

[ApatheticAustrian]

To those who keep questioning: Wisconsin is 100% counted, as is california.

?

i haven't any questions about WI but have you got any proof about CA?

[Nyvin]

To those who keep questioning: Wisconsin is 100% counted, as is california.

California is definitely not 100% counted.

[Redban]

Will this election's turnout exceed 2008's turnout?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Will this election's turnout exceed 2008's turnout?

No. Probably not even 2012

[PresidentTRUMP]

Trump will end up with around 46 to 47% of the popular vote as i assumed. Wasn't sure if it would be enough but it ended up being enough by a lot due to him winning WI, MI, PA & FL by small totals and Hillary running up her popular vote count HUGE in CA & NY along with Trump doing slightly worse in heavy Republican States than usual like Texas, GA, UT ect.

[jamestroll]

So basically, Clinton may win a decent popular vote margin but still lose the electoral college.

This tells me that Democrats could win the popular vote based on demographics alone in the future but could struggle with the electoral college vote for about a decade and have severe issues retaking the house or senate.

Like it or not, Democrats must reach out to some working class whites, or the house and senate could be impossible.

[Bacon King]

To those who keep questioning: Wisconsin is 100% counted, as is california.

You're absolutely wrong on California - ballots aren't even required to arrive by mail until today so they don't yet even have all the votes to count!

[jaichind]

Will this election's turnout exceed 2008's turnout?

Clearly not in terms of turnout percentage.  Although in terms of raw number of votes 2016 will exceed 134 million votes beating 2008's 131 million votes.