Remaining votes (Update: about 500K ballots left to count nationwide)

[muon2]

Could MN end up voting very slightly to the right of the US ?

The current final margin there is H+1.51

Nationally, Hillary could also end up ahead with about 1.5% when all ballots are counted.

As of this morning according to Leip's page MN has 49.1% of the two party vote for Trump compared to 49.5% for Trump nationally. So at this point it's still to the left.

[muon2]

and with that, republicans lose the PV in 6 of 7 elections, historic margins afaik.

that split happening 2 times in 20 years is something very rare too.....

I have an issue with saying you lose the popular vote when the winner is under 50 by a significant amount. The further away from 50 you are, the less "winning the popular vote" means, and this election more than any other recent election saw a larger dispersal of votes to multiple 3rd party candidates as opposed to just one main one. If Clinton had won 50% of the vote, she probably would've won the Electoral College. That makes 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2016 -four of the past 7 elections - where the person that received the most votes did not achieve a majority.

A Democrat has only gotten a majority of the vote twice in the past 10 elections.

In every other election we have in this country, the candidate with the larger vote share wins the election.   The Presidential vote is the only one where huge chunks of the country can just be written off as irrelevant and the candidate can win with a smaller vote share than the one who got the most votes.  

No matter how you put it....it's a deeply flawed system.

Edit - Not to mention....in practically ANY election where there is a third party candidate(s) that get above 5% of the vote, it becomes practically impossible to get 50% of the vote in the polarized country we live in.

That's not always true in states with runoff elections.

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        62.84 million     47.87%
Trump         61.50 million     46.84%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        64.99 million     48.10%
Trump         62.97 million     46.61%

For a Clinton victory of 1.49%

[boske94]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        62.84 million     47.87%
Trump         61.50 million     46.84%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        64.99 million     48.10%
Trump         62.97 million     46.61%

For a Clinton victory of 1.49%

Despite losing popular vote, if Trump wins as much votes as this estimate gives him, he will get biggest number of votes (absolute number) in the history of GOP presidential candidates. Present record is  62 040 000, which is Bush's number in 2004.

[Nym90]

Just as he did in the primary, Trump will be sure to boast about getting the most votes of any Republican candidate ever.

Clinton got more votes than him in both the primary and in the general. Probably won't mention that in his tweet.

[Lachi]

Not the final map yet, but:

Didn't expect that kind of turnout in some of those states.

[JohnCA246]

Certainly a correlation between swing states and turnout. Don't know if that is because of the campaigns, increased sense of their vote's importance, or a combination.

[ApatheticAustrian]

arizona is now closer than NC.....

[NOVA Green]

arizona is now closer than NC.....

So for all of the attention that Clinton paid to NC, would it have made more sense to focus on AZ instead for an unexpected wildcard flip scenario?

Obviously the messanger, the message, and the campaign should have focused more on the Rust Belt than they did, but would AZ have been a better potential flip as part of an "expanding the map strategy" than NC?

[NOVA Green]

arizona is now closer than NC.....

So for all of the attention that Clinton paid to NC, would it have made more sense to focus on AZ instead for an unexpected wildcard flip scenario?

Obviously the messanger, the message, and the campaign should have focused more on the Rust Belt than they did, but would AZ have been a better potential flip as part of an "expanding the map strategy" than NC?

Well, it stands to reason that a message tailored toward AZ would pay dividends in Florida as well (retirees + Hispanics).  If a Clinton/Becerra ticket, for example, was able to flip both FL and AZ, that gets her just barely over 270.  Based on 2012-16 trends and Trump's likely governing style, that might actually be the path of least resistance in 2020.  We now know the Clinton campaign had a lot of bad data in general. At this rate, NC might not even trend left this year.  It's really been nothing but tilting at windmills in NC since 2010, and the high Dem investment has only egged on the ridiculous behavior of the state government there.

Well, this is one of the things that most confused me about the "Air Wars" this GE, in that neither candidate seemed to focus much on micro-targeting in the advertising campaigns...

For example, where were the Clinton adds in AZ, FL, PA, OH, WI, and MI doing a "compare and contrast" on Medicare/Medicaid/ Social Security?

Where were the adds in the "Rust Belt" on bread and butter economic issues?

Instead most of Clinton's ads focused on Trumps personality, judgement, experience, and influence on the youth of America...

One could argue that Trump did not produce any real micro-targeted ads as well.

It seemed that this election was so nationalized to the point that both campaigns made strategic decisions to ignore key voting blocks throughout our great nation, and arguably this benefited Trump more than Clinton when it came to messaging in the Industrial Midwest, as well as similar parts of Pennsylvania.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like total turnout could hit some 136 million ...

There are still about 3-4 million ballots left in CA and a couple million in other states.

This would mean 59% turnout, the same as in 2012.

[Donnie]

Looks like total turnout could hit some 136 million ...

There are still about 3-4 million ballots left in CA and a couple million in other states.

This would mean 59% turnout, the same as in 2012.

No. There are max. 2.5 million left in CA. Not more.

[Lachi]

Looks like total turnout could hit some 136 million ...

There are still about 3-4 million ballots left in CA and a couple million in other states.

This would mean 59% turnout, the same as in 2012.

No. There are max. 2.5 million left in CA. Not more.

Citation needed

[Donnie]

Looks like total turnout could hit some 136 million ...

There are still about 3-4 million ballots left in CA and a couple million in other states.

This would mean 59% turnout, the same as in 2012.

No. There are max. 2.5 million left in CA. Not more.

Citation needed

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2016-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Looks like total turnout could hit some 136 million ...

There are still about 3-4 million ballots left in CA and a couple million in other states.

This would mean 59% turnout, the same as in 2012.

No. There are max. 2.5 million left in CA. Not more.

Citation needed

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2016-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf

The link says 3.1 million (as of yesterday).

[jaichind]

The link says 3.1 million (as of yesterday).

Those numbers include provisional votes.  Most likely a lot of them will be thrown out. Still it is a fact that there still are, as of right now, more than 2 million more votes in CA that are not part of the total that will be.

[ApatheticAustrian]

trump is going to end up with a mccain-ish share of votes. (not fair, i know, third parties are stronger bla).....and comparing with 2004 regarding absolute votes isn't useful, imho, since the US population increased in those 12 years.

strong showing, without question but the real strength is more about who voted for whom at which places, imho, than final numbers.

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        63.05 million     47.90%
Trump         61.61 million     46.81%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.07 million     48.12%
Trump         63.00 million     46.58%

For a Clinton victory of 1.55%

Now Clinton is on track to exceed 65 million and Trump is on track to exceed 63 million

[Person Man]

This election becomes more of a flaming turd by the day!

[Fusionmunster]

I wonder if Hillary can get to 2%?

[jaichind]

So far only 7 states have "locked down" their numbers.  Namely NH DE LA ND SC VT and WY

[Tender Branson]

So, what's left to count ?

2.8 million ballots in CA (of which there are 1.34 million provisionals). AZ results show that about 70% of provisional ballots are ruled valid.

So, probably 2.4 million ballots will be added in CA over the next weeks.

OH has about 300.000 ballots left.

And there are some other states which have a lot of counting still going on, like WA/AZ/CO/NY/FL etc.

[jaichind]

Big ones left are (estimated)
 
CA    2.2 million
OH   320K
WA   200K
FL     160K
AZ    150K
CO     80K
GA     80K

[Tender Branson]

Big ones left are (estimated)
 
CA    2.2 million
OH   320K
WA   200K
FL     160K
AZ    150K
CO     80K
GA     80K

CA should be more like 2.4 million left.

NY I guess still counts ten thousands of votes, they are only finished 4 weeks after GE day.

Also, is UT done already ?

[Tender Branson]

I wonder if total turnout could hit 60% of the VEP ...

Because we are currently already at 133 million counted ballots for President alone, with about 4 million left.

And "total ballots counted" is always a bit higher than all ballots counted for President, so it could hit 138-139 million after all is done, which would be exactly 60% of the 231.6 million eligible voters.