Remaining votes (Update: about 500K ballots left to count nationwide)

[Person Man]

Could the gap narrow in GA/FL? Could Vlinton pass 5% in Colorado?

[Tender Branson]

IL has a lot of ballots left to count as well:

https://www.elections.il.gov/VotingInformation/UncountedBallots.aspx

I didn't add them all up, but my guesstimate is about 200K from quickly looking over it.

I also guess the Cook County and Chicago totals are different counts, which means the Chicago numbers are not included in the Cook County totals.

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        63.54 million     47.98%
Trump         61.86 million     46.71%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.24 million     48.15%
Trump         63.06 million     46.54%

For a Clinton victory of 1.61%

If this trend continues Clinton might even get close to the 2012 Obama votes (65.92 million)

[Donnie]

Big ones left are (estimated)
  
CA    2.2 million
OH   320K
WA   200K
FL     160K
AZ    150K
CO     80K
GA     80K

Florida certified on Sun its results: Trump 4,617,886 (49.02%), Clinton 4,504,975 (47.82%), Others 297,178 (3.15%).  So, FL was only +5K since Nov 19 not 160K. The other states have less votes to count as well. Especially OH.

[Tender Branson]

NV is still adding votes ...

The current count for Hillary on the SOS page is about 2.000 higher than on the Atlas results page.

Hillary is now up by 2.5%

Also, CO is still adding votes too:

Hillary is almost up by 5% now.

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        63.66 million     47.98%
Trump         61.95 million     46.69%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.24 million     48.14%
Trump         63.05 million     46.52%

For a Clinton victory of 1.62%

I suspect the true size of victory will be smaller than this since all things equal the estimate of outstanding ballots are overestimated since not all of them necessary voted for President.

[jaichind]

The following states have certified their result along with turnout 2012 and 2016

          2012 turnout        2016 turnout      Diff
DE          62.3%                    63.7%          1.4%
DC          61.5%                    60.2%         -1.3%
FL           62.8%                    64.5%          1.7%
HI           42.7%                    41.7%         -2.5%
LA           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
NH          70.2%                    71.5%          1.3%
ND          59.3%                    59.1%        -0.2%
OK          49.2%                    52.0%          2.8%
SC          56.3%                    56.8%          0.5%
VT          60.7%                    63.5%          2.8%
VA          66.1%                    65.7%         -0.4%
WY         58.6%                    59.4%          0.8%

[NOVA Green]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        63.66 million     47.98%
Trump         61.95 million     46.69%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.24 million     48.14%
Trump         63.05 million     46.52%

For a Clinton victory of 1.62%

I suspect the true size of victory will be smaller than this since all things equal the estimate of outstanding ballots are overestimated since not all of them necessary voted for President.

Not quite sure where you are pulling the estimated vote outstanding numbers from, but it is important to note that in California the "Unprocessed Ballot Report" overstates the number outstanding, since it is the last to update based upon when counties decide to process. The county websites are generally better, since some of the larger counties post more updated information than has been provided to the state, but even so many counties don't update those numbers frequently, plus some of the provisional and miscellaneous ballots will be thrown out for various reasons.

[jaichind]

Not quite sure where you are pulling the estimated vote outstanding numbers from, but it is important to note that in California the "Unprocessed Ballot Report" overstates the number outstanding, since it is the last to update based upon when counties decide to process. The county websites are generally better, since some of the larger counties post more updated information than has been provided to the state, but even so many counties don't update those numbers frequently, plus some of the provisional and miscellaneous ballots will be thrown out for various reasons.

I use

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VAcF0eJ06y_8T4o2gvIL4YcyQy8pxb1zYkgXF76Uu1s/edit#gid=2030096602

which I totally agree overcounts the number of votes outstanding in many states  It is underestimates votes in other states  as it is behind the real count in several states.  My calculation is based on the MAX() between this sheet and the current count.

[MAGA]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        63.66 million     47.98%
Trump         61.95 million     46.69%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.24 million     48.14%
Trump         63.05 million     46.52%

For a Clinton victory of 1.62%

I suspect the true size of victory will be smaller than this since all things equal the estimate of outstanding ballots are overestimated since not all of them necessary voted for President.

Victory and Clinton are two words that should never be put in one sentence together unless one wants to be seen as a fool.

Trump won 30 of 51 separate contests basically a 60% to 40% Landslide. And 309 to 232 EVs, another significant victory. No such thing as the "National Popular vote". It can be easily deduced that Clinton received millions of illegal alien votes, votes form felons, dead people, etc. We all know it's true.

[Sorenroy]

It can be easily deduced that Clinton received millions of illegal alien votes, votes form felons, dead people, etc. We all know it's true.

I know you're under 20 posts so you can't publish a link, but could you name your source (for example: Something Something Something from the New York Times)?

[DrScholl]

The only arrests for election fraud were a woman in Iowa who voted twice (for Trump) and a woman in Illinois who filled out her dead husband's absentee ballot (for Trump). Seems to me the actual proven cases skew towards Trump, not Clinton.

[2016]

California will be the last State to certify Election Results. That will be on Dec. 14th

Once that is done Clinton will likely have more than 2 Million Votes more than Trump.

[Adam Griffin]

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[jaichind]

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To be fair Obama 2012 won almost 66M votes.  It is Trump, who is already above 62M, and most likely will cross 63M that will break the Bush II 2004 record of 62M votes.

[ApatheticAustrian]

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To be fair Obama 2012 won almost 66M votes.  It is Trump, who is already above 62M, and most likely will cross 63M that will break the Bush II 2004 record of 62M votes.

both records are useless but trump's one even more so, since there are much more americans in 2016 than there have been in 2004.

[Fusionmunster]

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To be fair Obama 2012 won almost 66M votes.  It is Trump, who is already above 62M, and most likely will cross 63M that will break the Bush II 2004 record of 62M votes.

both records are useless but trump's one even more so, since there are much more americans in 2016 than there have been in 2004.

Its even more useless when you consider Bush won the popular vote in 2004.

[Sorenroy]

It can be easily deduced that Clinton received millions of illegal alien votes, votes form felons, dead people, etc. We all know it's true.

I know you're under 20 posts so you can't publish a link, but could you name your source (for example: Something Something Something from the New York Times)?

Now that you're over 20 posts you can answer me that much easier! Or... could you just be making it up?

[Donnie]

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  34m34 minutes ago
Michigan: 2,803 new Clinton votes, 719 Trump. Trump's lead falls to 9,528 (0.2%).

[Mike88]

How many votes are still to be counted in Michigan?

Also, it seems that Wisconsin has also some provisional ballots to count.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/801090505996140544

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[Donnie]

NV certified it's results today: Clinton 539,260 (47.92%), Trump 512,058 (45.50%), Others 74,067 (6.58%).

Fun fact: Had 8 people less voted for Trump in NV, he would fall to below 45.5%.

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        63.86 million     47.99%
Trump         62.09 million     46.66%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.22 million     48.13%
Trump         63.04 million     46.52%

For a Clinton lead of 1.61%

[jaichind]

The following states have certified their result along with turnout 2012 and 2016

          2012 turnout        2016 turnout      Diff
DE          62.3%                    63.7%          1.4%
DC          61.5%                    60.2%         -1.3%
FL           62.8%                    64.5%          1.7%
GA          59.0%                    58.8%         -0.2%
HI           44.2%                    41.7%         -2.5%
KY           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
LA           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
NV          56.4%                    57.1%          0.7%
NH          70.2%                    71.5%          1.3%
ND          59.3%                    59.1%        -0.2%
OK          49.2%                    52.0%          2.8%
SC          56.3%                    56.8%          0.5%
VT          60.7%                    63.5%          2.8%
VA          66.1%                    65.7%         -0.4%
WY         58.6%                    59.4%          0.8%

Edit: fixed HI

[Slander and/or Libel]

The following states have certified their result along with turnout 2012 and 2016

          2012 turnout        2016 turnout      Diff
DE          62.3%                    63.7%          1.4%
DC          61.5%                    60.2%         -1.3%
FL           62.8%                    64.5%          1.7%
GA          59.0%                    58.8%         -0.2%
HI           42.7%                    41.7%         -2.5%
KY           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
LA           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
NV          56.4%                    57.1%          0.7%
NH          70.2%                    71.5%          1.3%
ND          59.3%                    59.1%        -0.2%
OK          49.2%                    52.0%          2.8%
SC          56.3%                    56.8%          0.5%
VT          60.7%                    63.5%          2.8%
VA          66.1%                    65.7%         -0.4%
WY         58.6%                    59.4%          0.8%

The Hawaii entry in the difference column is off. It ought to be -1.0%, no?

[jaichind]

The following states have certified their result along with turnout 2012 and 2016

          2012 turnout        2016 turnout      Diff
DE          62.3%                    63.7%          1.4%
DC          61.5%                    60.2%         -1.3%
FL           62.8%                    64.5%          1.7%
GA          59.0%                    58.8%         -0.2%
HI           42.7%                    41.7%         -2.5%
KY           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
LA           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
NV          56.4%                    57.1%          0.7%
NH          70.2%                    71.5%          1.3%
ND          59.3%                    59.1%        -0.2%
OK          49.2%                    52.0%          2.8%
SC          56.3%                    56.8%          0.5%
VT          60.7%                    63.5%          2.8%
VA          66.1%                    65.7%         -0.4%
WY         58.6%                    59.4%          0.8%

The Hawaii entry in the difference column is off. It ought to be -1.0%, no?

Typo .. will fix now