Remaining votes (Update: about 500K ballots left to count nationwide)
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  Remaining votes (Update: about 500K ballots left to count nationwide)
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Author Topic: Remaining votes (Update: about 500K ballots left to count nationwide)  (Read 19215 times)
ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #200 on: December 07, 2016, 02:15:17 PM »

nearly double his vote share....
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KingCharles
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« Reply #201 on: December 07, 2016, 03:19:03 PM »

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jaichind
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« Reply #202 on: December 07, 2016, 04:50:06 PM »

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        65.53 million     48.23%
Trump         62.85 million     46.26%

and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.59 million     48.23%
Trump         62.93 million     46.26%

For a Clinton lead of 1.97%.

Clionton's lead closing in on 2%.  Trump closing in on 63 million.

I think MS NY WV has some more votes.  CA seems almost done if not done already.  MD and PA might have a bit more.
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Axel Foley
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« Reply #203 on: December 07, 2016, 06:36:53 PM »

So, more ballots still left to be counted in PA than in CA? Wow, sounds interesting...
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« Reply #204 on: December 08, 2016, 11:00:58 AM »

So, more ballots still left to be counted in PA than in CA? Wow, sounds interesting...

New York City has the most Ballots left to count/publish. Wasserman says it could be between 300-400K. NYC Elections Board hasn't updated Results since Election Night. Clinton could be getting very close to Obamas 2012 Total of 65.9 M Votes. She currently sits at 65.4 M Votes less than 400K Votes away from Obamas 2012 Total.
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jaichind
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« Reply #205 on: December 08, 2016, 05:10:33 PM »

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        65.53 million     48.23%
Trump         62.85 million     46.26%

and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.57 million     48.23%
Trump         62.90 million     46.26%

For a Clinton lead of 1.97%.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #206 on: December 08, 2016, 06:34:45 PM »

Final California Numbers (Really):

Hillary Clinton - 8,753,788 - 62.1%
Donald Trump - 4,483,810 - 31.8%
Gary Johnson - 478,499 - 3.4%
Jill Stein - 278,657 - 2.0%
Gloria La Riva (Peace and Freedom) - 66,101 - 0.5%


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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #207 on: December 08, 2016, 06:40:33 PM »

Final California Numbers (Really):

Hillary Clinton - 8,753,788 - 62.1%
Donald Trump - 4,483,810 - 31.8%
Gary Johnson - 478,499 - 3.4%
Jill Stein - 278,657 - 2.0%
Gloria La Riva (Peace and Freedom) - 66,101 - 0.5%


Those don't count (official) write ins though.



26 of 58 counties have their official write ins where I could find them. This is from yesterday. I'll take another look tomorrow at the remainders. Any that I don't find by next week will be getting emails/phone calls.

Bernie broke 2% (but not 2.5%) in Humboldt. There's a few other northern CA counties where he's broken 1%. McMullin has broken 0.5% in a few counties.

Will Jerry White get 55 votes? It could be close.
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Beet
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« Reply #208 on: December 08, 2016, 08:00:19 PM »

Final California Numbers (Really):

Hillary Clinton - 8,753,788 - 62.1%
Donald Trump - 4,483,810 - 31.8%
Gary Johnson - 478,499 - 3.4%
Jill Stein - 278,657 - 2.0%
Gloria La Riva (Peace and Freedom) - 66,101 - 0.5%

Astounding. She tripled Kerry's margin from 2004.
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afcassidy
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« Reply #209 on: December 09, 2016, 06:03:19 PM »

Are there enough votes left to be counted to produce another 50 votes for Darrell Castle?  

He's inching so close to breaking 200,000 for the first time in Constitution Party history.  When he was the party's VP candidate in 2008 they were only 120 votes short.

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jaichind
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« Reply #210 on: December 09, 2016, 10:41:04 PM »

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        65.75 million     48.29%
Trump         62.90 million     46.21%

and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.78 million     48.29%
Trump         62.95 million     46.21%

For a Clinton lead of 2.08%.
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jaichind
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« Reply #211 on: December 10, 2016, 08:28:00 AM »
« Edited: December 10, 2016, 10:24:42 AM by jaichind »

The following states have certified (or all but in name) their result along with turnout 2012 and 2016

          2012 turnout        2016 turnout      Diff
AL           58.6%                    58.9%          0.3%
AK          58.7%                    61.4%          2.7%
AZ          52.6%                    54.3%          1.7%
AR          50.7%                    52.6%          1.9%
CA          55.1%                    55.6%          0.5%
CO          69.9%                    69.9%          0.0%
CT          61.3%                    64.0%          2.7%
DE          62.3%                    63.7%          1.4%
DC          61.5%                    60.2%         -1.3%
FL           62.8%                    64.5%          1.7%
GA          59.0%                    58.8%         -0.2%
HI           44.2%                    41.7%         -2.5%
ID           59.8%                    59.4%         -0.4%
IL           58.9%                    61.6%          2.7%
IA           70.3%                     68.2%       -2.1%
KS           56.9%                    57.3%         0.4%
KY           55.7%                    58.7%         3.0%
LA           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
MD          66.6%                    66.2%        -0.4%
MA          65.9%                    66.8%          0.9%
MI           64.7%                    64.7%        -0.1%
MN          76.0%                    74.1%        -1.9%
MT          62.5%                    61.5%        -1.0%
NE          60.3%                    62.4%          2.1%
NV          56.4%                    57.1%          0.7%
NH          70.2%                    71.5%          1.3%
NJ           61.5%                    63.6%          2.1%
NM          54.6%                    54.7%         0.1%
ND          59.3%                    59.1%        -0.2%
OH          64.5%                    62.8%        -1.7%
OK          49.2%                    52.0%          2.8%
RI           58.0%                    59.0%          1.0%
SC          56.3%                    56.8%          0.5%
TX          49.6%                     51.2%         1.6%
UT          55.5%                    56.8%          1.3%
VT          60.7%                    63.5%          2.8%
VA          66.1%                    65.7%         -0.4%
WA         64.8%                    65.7%          0.9%
WI          72.9%                    69.3%        -3.6%
WY         58.6%                    59.4%          0.8%

Large drop-offs in turnout seems to be Midwest (WI OH MN IA), HI (Obama not on ballot?), DC (AA turnout drop + pro-GOP educated Whites did not turn out) and MT (no idea why, perhaps pro-Dem Native American turnout drop).  Also not on the list yet is MS which will also have a large drop in turnout which is most likely a result of lower racial polarization due to Obama not being on the ballot.

MD and VA also had small mount of turnout decrease.  Mostly likely pro-GOP educated Whites turned out at lower rates due to Trump being on the ticket.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #212 on: December 10, 2016, 03:28:55 PM »

Are there enough votes left to be counted to produce another 50 votes for Darrell Castle?  

He's inching so close to breaking 200,000 for the first time in Constitution Party history.  When he was the party's VP candidate in 2008 they were only 120 votes short.


Yes he has reached surpassed 200,000 and now has 200,048.

Also for the first time since 1992 there were no Reform party votes, Ross Perot's third party goes out with a whimper...
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #213 on: December 10, 2016, 04:35:10 PM »

Are there enough votes left to be counted to produce another 50 votes for Darrell Castle?  

He's inching so close to breaking 200,000 for the first time in Constitution Party history.  When he was the party's VP candidate in 2008 they were only 120 votes short.


Yes he has reached surpassed 200,000 and now has 200,048.

Also for the first time since 1992 there were no Reform party votes, Ross Perot's third party goes out with a whimper...
I thought De La Fuente was the Reform candidate.
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Frodo
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« Reply #214 on: December 10, 2016, 04:39:21 PM »

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        65.75 million     48.29%
Trump         62.90 million     46.21%

and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.78 million     48.29%
Trump         62.95 million     46.21%

For a Clinton lead of 2.08%.

She's closing in on a 3 million vote lead! 
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #215 on: December 10, 2016, 04:42:04 PM »

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        65.75 million     48.29%
Trump         62.90 million     46.21%

and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.78 million     48.29%
Trump         62.95 million     46.21%

For a Clinton lead of 2.08%.
What a f**king joke.

The Republic is dead.
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #216 on: December 10, 2016, 04:43:11 PM »

What caused Hillary's margin to balloon just now?
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jaichind
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« Reply #217 on: December 10, 2016, 04:52:04 PM »

What caused Hillary's margin to balloon just now?

NY came in with a bunch of mail in and provisional votes.
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RI
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« Reply #218 on: December 10, 2016, 04:52:15 PM »

What caused Hillary's margin to balloon just now?

NYC finished reporting.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #219 on: December 10, 2016, 04:54:24 PM »

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        65.75 million     48.29%
Trump         62.90 million     46.21%

and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.78 million     48.29%
Trump         62.95 million     46.21%

For a Clinton lead of 2.08%.
What a f**king joke.

The Republic is dead.

Yup, time to get rid of the electoral college.
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Donnie
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« Reply #220 on: December 10, 2016, 04:57:30 PM »

In which states and how many votes can be left?
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jaichind
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« Reply #221 on: December 10, 2016, 05:31:53 PM »

In which states and how many votes can be left?

In theory MS NC OR TN and WV each have around 10K-20K possible votes left.  I think NY and PA will have still another bunch more.  No idea how much.
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jaichind
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« Reply #222 on: December 10, 2016, 05:33:36 PM »

Wow.  Clinton's lead is up to almost 2.1%.  I thought I was going out on a limb before the election in thinking that Trump could lose the PV by 1.5% but still win the EC.  Now that threshold is something like  over 2.9%.
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jaichind
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« Reply #223 on: December 10, 2016, 05:43:21 PM »

I am pretty sure if a GOP candidate made it into the final two of the CA senate race the gap between Clinton and Trump will be significantly smaller than gap right now, maybe something like 1.9%.
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afcassidy
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« Reply #224 on: December 10, 2016, 10:56:15 PM »
« Edited: December 10, 2016, 11:40:26 PM by afcassidy »

Yes he has reached surpassed 200,000 and now has 200,048.

Also for the first time since 1992 there were no Reform party votes, Ross Perot's third party goes out with a whimper...

Nice.  Now I'm wondering if there are enough untallied write-in votes to get McMullin over 700k.  Probably not, he'd need almost 10k more.

(EDIT -- I don't think McMullin's write-in votes from California have been added yet.  In that case, he will absolutely top 700k.)

The Reform Party nominated Rocky de la Fuente, but he was primarily the candidate of his own "American Delta Party" -- which I thought stood for something, but I later learned that "delta" was just a sampling of letters from his name.  Sounds like an airline.

I'm pretty sure the only state he was on as the Reform candidate was Florida, and they don't even print the party's full name on the ballot.  So essentially the party is as dead as the Natural Law Party, which still has a single ballot line in Michigan that went to Socialist Party nominee Emidio Soltysik.
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