When I was Right/Wrong Post-Election Megathread

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Me:

Wrong:

1. For a rather long period I thought Hillary won't run after all.
2. I expected Biden to run.
3. Until late 2015 I considered Sanders as someone who can be at best a distant second.
4. Like pretty much everybody here, I did not saw the upset coming, given all the data.
5. I thought it'll take a last-minute major scandal to bring Hillary down. It's not how it went.

Right:

1. I predicted Hillary's nomination, once she entered, won't be cakewalk.
2. I considered Jeb! as a badly overhyped candidate from the start. I didn't believe he can make it (though didn't expect him to be that pathetic either).
3. I've been saying not to underestimate Trump (all these "are we past Trump peak?" threads) since early primaries.
4. I predicted the election to be much closer than the polls suggested.
5. I was sceptical about coattails.

[angus]

right: 
either Trump or Clinton will win
neither will get a majority of the popular vote
our next president will be a sleazy, narcissistic, untrustworthy person
Whichever one wins, the losing side will act disgracefully afterward
Clinton and Trump will be within 1% of each other in the PV
I will not know who the winner is till the next morning when I wake up and go to the computer
Republicans will maintain control of the congress
Toomey will probably win

wrong:
There's no way the Republicans are going to nominate Donald Trump!
Third parties will collect at least ten percent of the popular vote
Clinton will probably win Pennsylvania
Clinton will probably win Wisconsin
Clinton will probably win Michigan
Clinton will probably win the election
No one will know who the winner is till the next morning when they wake up and go to the computer
Some horrible factoid regarding one of the major candidates would leak out the weekend before the election, spoiling the election for that candidate

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Me:

Wrong:

1. For a rather long period I thought Hillary won't run after all.
2. I expected Biden to run.

4. Like pretty much everybody here, I did not saw the upset coming, given all the data.


Right:

1. I predicted Hillary's nomination, once she entered, won't be cakewalk.
2. I considered Jeb! as a badly overhyped candidate from the start. I didn't believe he can make it (though didn't expect him to be that pathetic either).

I'm with you Kal.  I was adamant she wasn't running until she did.  Ugh.

[Virginiá]

Wrong:

1. Didn't think Trump could get the nomination
2. Thought America would ultimately reject, even if by slim margins, the sociopath sexual predator con man / moron. BOY did I give too much faith in my fellow countrymen.
3. Too confident in the Blue Wall and disregarding Trump's appeal to WCWs, which are critical (for the time being at least) for success in rustbelt states.
4. Too confident that Trump couldn't match Romney's white voter margins, which he actually exceeded by 1 pt.
5. Wrong that Trump wouldn't do better than Romney with Hispanics. Somehow he did.

Right:

1. Right that the white share of the electorate would go down roughly 2% as respected demographers predicted, continuing a troubling trend for Republicans as the electorate diversifies.
2. Right to excessively worry that Hillary's huge amounts of baggage would hurt her. It did. Candidates with as much bad history and baggage as her should do the country & the party a favor and not run for office. And guess what, the public does care about that stuff. It destroyed her image in the eyes of the people, and the electorate's perceptions are what matters. It doesn't matter if the email 'scandal' was a relatively insignificant issue - that's not how the public perceived it. It destroyed her candidacy. God forbid anyone mentions this pre-Nov on here, less they be called Beet.
3. Right to insist that the party needs to run candidates that appeal to young people. If your candidate can't appeal to them, they need to be replaced. Clinton had a very negative appeal to them from the get-go. Any political party needs to run candidates that their party likes, and the Democratic Party heavily relies on the 18-34 age bracket. Guess what, they paved the way for the worst fkin candidate for that bloc. The DNC should no longer take them for granted or they are just asking for another loss.

[LLR]

Wrong:

-Trump winning the nomination
-Trump winning the election
-Underestimating Trump
-Senate
-Multiple governor's races

Right:

-That brief period of time when SC was a tossup
-Cortez-Masto?
-Schumer hitting 70 (I insisted on it)

not much I was right about, lol

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Wrong:

I underestimated Trump at literally every turn from the day that he announced up until Tuesday.

Right:

I knew the results would surprise me in one way or another.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

2. Right to excessively worry that Hillary's huge amounts of baggage would hurt her. It did. Candidates with as much bad history and baggage as her should do the country & the party a favor and not run for office.

First off, a nice, honest recap.

I think a lot of people voted for Trump simply because they hate Hillary, because of the baggage you mentioned.

Do you think Bubba would have beaten Trump?  I do.  The Bubba hate isn't here.  Hillary hate is strong.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I forgot about no candidate getting a majority of PV. I was totally wrong on Feingold, though

[anvi]

This one is written over the front door of the "Anvi is a Complete Moron" Hall of Fame.

There is just no objective reason to believe some disaster is awaiting Clinton in Michigan or Pennsylvania. 

This Moron Hall of Fame of mine is really huge, and it's full of quotes.  But this is the crown.

[Oakvale]

[Mike Thick]

Right:
- Nothing

Wrong:
- Everything

[Enduro]

Wrong
-I thought Trump was going to have a sharp drop in the polls in 2015, and then I thought he was going to lose the general.
-I thought Rand Paul would stay in a lot longer than he did.
-I thought Clinton was going to breeze through the primaries without a major opponent.
-For sure, Johnson was going to make the debate.
-Johnson was also going to get 5%
-Jeb Bush was going to buy the republican nomination.

Right
-Sanders and Cruz lost despite claims that they were going to make a comeback.
-Johnson had a significantly bigger vote total than 2012.
-The debates were torture.
-Weld ended up being a liability for the libertarians.
-Liberty took a punch to the face in the end of it all.

I'm sure I'm missing some, but that's what I came up with off the top of my head.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Wrong:

Rubio was going to last longer in the primaries than Kasich and possibly longer than Cruz.
Later: Cruz was going to win Indiana (I revised my opinion on this as April went on).
Pence was going to be a liability for Trump due to incompatible styles.
McMullin was going to win counties.
Clinton was going to win convincingly.

Right:

Trump won the Republican nomination eventually.
Sanders lasted longer in the primaries than most people expected going in, but still lost.
Kaine neither helped nor hurt Clinton.
Michigan fell before Minnesota.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Wrong:

Before primaries

The Republicans will nominate someone like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio
Trump will be out before Iowa
Ted Cruz will never gain traction because he is too conservative and too much of a demogogue
Mark Kirk will be reelected
Hillary Clinton will not face any significant primary opposition
Marco Rubio will not seek reelection to the Senate
Marco Rubio will lose his Senate primary
Pennsylvania Dems will choose Joe Sestak

Before general election

Democrats will sweep the close Senate races
Trump will not win Utah
Gary Johnson will get well above 50%
Virginia will vote even with the country
Brad Ashford will survive
Bob Dold will survive
Georgia will be called before Florida
Kelly Ayotte's race will end to the right of Ron Johnson's race

Correct

Jeb Bush will not be the GOP nominee
Ted Cruz will not be the GOP nominee
Tim Kaine will be Clinton's VP pick

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Wrong
Trump won't get the GOP nomination
Trump will lose by a landslide
Hillary will get every Obama state from 2008 & 2012
Ron Johnson will lose before Mark Kirk
Ron Johnson will lose reelection
Mark Kirk will win reelection
Mark Kirk will lose reelection by a narrow margin
John McCain will lose his primary
John McCain will lose his general election

Right
Phil Scott will win
Chris Sununu will win
Evan McMullin will get over 20% in Utah

[Mr. Smith]

Wrong

Maggie Hassan would lose to Ayotte
Joe Heck would beat CCM
Murphy would take over Rubio's seat
The GOP Heads would do more to screw Trump out of the nomination despite the leads in the polls
Hillary would win by 7 or so (revised to)
Trump takes the Midwest, but not Pennsylvania or Michigan, barely wins the EV (after Comeyghazi)
Bernie would closely lose California
Democrats take back the Senate...(1st)
Democrats only take Illinois, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (revised)
McCrory holds on for sure
Patty Judge keeps it somewhat close for Grassley

Trump picks Gingrich

Right

Isolationism would be a key factor
Democrats do not get majority
Trump wins (after Pnuemoniaghazi [in which I changed my name to do the Talleyrand thing] and Comeyghazi)
Hillary loses Wisconsin
Evan Bayh falls apart
Sanchez completely blows it with every side against Harris
Burr holds on
Issa holds on
Clinton picks Kaine for Veep
Prop 64 wins
John McCain re-elected
Greitens wins MO-GOV
Michael Bennet re-elected

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Right
Kaine wasn't the winning Veep candidate that the forum talked about
I said Castro or Perez, she needed younger voters, which are young Latinos for the Sanders-Warren voters and Sanders didn't like Kaine anyways

Wrong
That Clinton would beat Trump

[TDAS04]

Wrong:
Jeb could be viable.
States such as Arkansas, West Virginia, and Kentucky would swing sharply towards Hillary.
(Both seem like pretty bad predictions now, but I made them well before 2016).

Right:
Clinton would pick Kaine.
Hillary would hang on to Nevada.
Arizona would be competitive.
Trumps three best states would be Wyoming, West Virginia, and Oklahoma.
Pence was a fairly likely VP candidate.

[Xing]

Wrong:
-Trump's success in general
-Competitiveness of Wisconsin/Michigan
-Underestimated Greitens/Justice/Holcomb
-Overestimated the importance of ground game

Right:
-N-E-V-A-D-A
-Arizona was competitive
-Pennsylvania was the tipping point state
-Hillary's weakness in Colorado was overstated

[Vosem]

Right:
1. That Hillary would run for the Democratic nomination, and that she would win the Democratic nomination without too much of a fight.
2. That Jeb would fall apart at the slightest push, and that by the time the early primaries took place the strongest "establishment" candidate would be Rubio.
3. That Republican voters under-45 would be strongly against Trump in the primaries.
4. That Trump would not collapse prior to the early primaries.
5. That, in the aftermath of Cruz' dropping out, there would not be a serious effort from the Republican Party, or at the RNC, to block Trump.
6. That Tim Kaine and Mike Pence would be the vice-presidential nominees.
7. That Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote.
8. That Hillary Clinton would improve from Barack Obama's margins among the youth.

Wrong:
1. That Donald Trump could not amass a majority of the delegates to the Republican Convention. I was saying this even after the NY primary, up until the results of the Acela primary came in.
2. That Ted Cruz would ultimately be the Republican nominee.
3. Numerous wrong primary calls -- some of which I had lots of company on, like IA/ME for Trump, HI for Rubio, and MI for Clinton -- but others of which I went out on a limb quite incorrectly, such as my insistence that AZ would vote for Cruz.
4. That Hillary Clinton would win the election.
5. That Hillary Clinton would win Iowa and my home state of Ohio, which I got massively, shamefully wrong (though I guess in some small consolation at least my home county did swing towards Clinton).
6. That Hillary Clinton would win outlandish states like Arizona and Alaska.
7. That Evan McMullin would win Utah, and Trump would not break 30% there.
8. That Democrats would retake the United States Senate.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Going by my predictions from late summer '15, when everyone had announced:

Wrong:
- Sanders would win one, maybe two states tops in the primaries
- Walker would be a high-tier candidate (possibly in the top three) and Paul or Huckabee had an outside chance for that slot as well
- Rubio would finish in the top three (he winded up a narrow fourth - not too bad)
- Kasich would drop out by mid-to-late fall (around the time that Walker did)
- Feingold had WI in the bag and Kirk would be harder to unseat (lol)
- Clinton would win (by a landslide against Trump)
- Statehouses in MN, ME, and NH would all flip

Right:
- Trump ending up in the top three, modestly favored to win the nomination if he does (!!!)
- Cruz would finish in the top three
- Jeb would implode
- Fiorina was overrated
- Colin Powell would endorse Clinton (albeit much sooner than he actually did)
- Nevada going D in both the Senate and presidential races by comfortable margins if not landslides
- NV legislature flips back to the Ds
- Meme magic is real.

[SATW]

I was wrong about NH SEN. TN Vol and Heisenberg, I tip my hat to you guys but Atomic Ayotte will be back.