Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[The_Doctor]

ELECTION NIGHT -- 12:05 AM EST

Bill: "Alaska goes to the President, making 241 to 200 for the President."

Julia: "Ohio continues to seesaw between the two men. Analysts are saying had Senator Brown not been on the Democratic ticket, this would have been a runaway GOP win here. But it continues to seesaw."

Brett: "And get ready for two small but major calls. The state of Wisconsin and the state of Maine goes ... Republican, for the President. We repeat, Mike Pence has won both states and will take all but one electoral votes out of both states."

Bill: "That makes 254 for the President, 201 for the Senator."

Wisconsin - 84% of precincts reporting
         
Pence/Haley (Republican): 1,316,664 - 51.53% - WINNER
Brown/Malloy   (Democratic): 1,183,877 - 46.33%
Others   (Independent): 54,834 - 2.15%
         
Totals …       2,555,375 | Margin: 5.20%

MAINE - 91% of precincts reporting

Pence/Haley (Republican):  352,798 - 48.85% - WINNER
Brown/Malloy (Democratic):  334,181 - 46.27%
Others (Independent):  35,201 - 4.87%
         
Totals …       722,180    2.58%

[The_Doctor]

ELECTION NIGHT -- 12:15 AM EST

Bill: We're making two major projections that seal the Presidential election. We are now projecting that President Pence has won the states of Pennsylvania and Michigan, with a lead in both Ohio and Minnesota, while Senator Brown has won the state of Colorado. We're now projecting the President has won his first full term in the White House, tonight."

MICHIGAN - 92% of precincts reporting
         
Pence/Haley (Republican): 2,289,920 - 50.74% - WINNER
Brown/Malloy (Democratic): 2,022,598 - 44.82%
Others   (Independent): 200,428 - 4.44%
         
Totals …   4,512,946 | Margin: 5.92%

PENNSYLVANIA - 88% of precincts reporting

Pence/Haley (Republican):  2,643,235 - 50.44% - WINNER
Brown/Malloy (Democratic): 2,455,234 - 46.85%
Others (Independent): 141,838 - 2.71%
         
Totals …   5,240,307 | Margin: 3.59%

COLORADO - 89% of precincts reporting

Pence/Haley (Republican):   1,306,943 - 47.13%
Brown/Malloy (Democratic): 1,438,322 - 51.86% - WINNER
Others (Independent):  27,959 - 1.01%
         
Totals … 2,773,223 | Margin: 4.74%

NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE (71% of precincts reporting):

Pence/Haley (Republican): 49,355,502 - 49.84% - 290 - WINNER
Brown/Malloy (Democratic):  46,998,013 - 47.46% - 210
Others   (Independent):   2,666,349 - 2.69%
         
Totals …    99,019,865 | Margin: 2.38%

[The_Doctor]

ELECTION NIGHT -- 12:30 AM

Bill: "We're reporting that the House GOP has a majority at this time, with 222 seats to the Democratic Party's 184 seats. The GOP is on course to crest at probably around 235 to 243 seats at this hour, with several races too close too call. But at this hour, Paul Ryan will remain the Speaker of the House."

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I guess I'd be down with that. Yay?

[The_Doctor]

Next Morning - ELECTION MORNING 2020

Bill: "And we have final results out of Minnesota, Ohio, and New Hampshire. Republican Mike Pence has prevailed narrowly in all of them. In Ohio, he has prevailed by 35,000."

In Maine, Democrat Phil Bartlett has defeated Republican Bruce Polinquin for the Senate seat, bringing the Democratic minority to 46."

Several weeks later, the final numbers:

Pence/Haley (Republican):    69,514,792 - 49.47% - 328 - WINNER
Brown/Malloy (Democratic): 67,140,019 - 47.78%
Others (Independent): 3,864,274 - 2.75%
         
Totals …    140,519,087 | Margin: 1.69%

[The_Doctor]

The final numbers:

Pence/Haley (Republican): 69,514,792 - 49.47% - 328 - WINNER
Brown/Malloy (Democratic): 67,140,019 - 47.78%
Others (Independent): 3,864,274 - 2.75%
         
Totals …    140,519,087 | Margin: 1.69%

                           
ARIZONA               
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    1,497,909 - 50.27%      
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    1,367,099 - 45.88%      
      Others   (Independent):    114,720 - 3.85%      
                     
      Totals …       2,979,728    4.39%      
                     
      CALIFORNIA
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    5,710,011 - 37.12%      
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    8,997,267 - 58.49%   [/Color   
      Others   (Independent):    675,295    4.39% -    
                     
      Totals …       15,382,574          
                     
      COLORADO
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    1,461,170 - 47.15%      
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    1,571,493 - 50.71%      
      Others   (Independent):    66,318 - 2.14%      
                     
      Totals …       3,098,981          
                     
      FLORIDA
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    5,285,950 - 50.24%      
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    4,894,554 - 46.52%      
      Others   (Independent):    340,893 - 3.24%      
                     
      Totals …       10,521,397    
                     
      GEORGIA               
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    2,200,922 - 51.17%      
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    1,903,279 - 44.25%      
      Others   (Independent):    196,995 - 4.58%      
                     
      Totals …       4,301,196    100.00%      
                     
      Illinois               
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    2,405,511 - 41.01%      
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    3,233,157 - 55.12%      
      Others   (Independent):    227,001 - 3.87%      
                     
      Totals …       5,865,669    100.00%      
                     
      Iowa               
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    849,324    54.51%      
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    659,858    42.35%      
      Others   (Independent):    48,925    3.14%      
                     
      Totals …       1,558,106
                     
      Maine               
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    383,476    48.63%      
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    367,232    46.57%      
      Others   (Independent):    37,851 -   4.80%      
                     
      Totals …       788,559    
                     
      Michigan               
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    2,490,303 - 50.58%      
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    2,258,407 - 45.87%      
      Others   (Independent):    174,784 - 3.55%      
                     
      Totals …       4,923,494       
                     
      Minnesota               
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    1,467,911 - 49.14%      
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    1,432,363 - 47.95%      
      Others   (Independent):    86,928 - 2.91%   
                     
      Totals …       2,987,201    100.00%      
                     
      Nevada               
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    612,676    - 48.79%      
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    610,918    - 48.65%      
      Others   (Independent):    32,147    - 2.56%      
                     
      Totals …       1,255,741       
                     
      New Hampshire               
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    388,479 -    50.68%      
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    368,779    - 48.11%      
      Others   (Independent):    9,275 - 1.21%      
                     
      Totals …       766,533    
                     
      North Carolina               
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    2,516,396 - 50.16%      
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    2,272,582 - 45.30%      
      Others   (Independent):    227,760 - 4.54%   
                     
      Totals …       5,016,738    
                     
      Ohio               
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    2,708,917 - 48.88%      
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    2,690,074 - 48.54%      
      Others   (Independent):    142,983 - 2.58%      
                     
      Totals …       5,541,974          
                     
      Pennsylvania               
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    3,263,253 - 49.78%      
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    3,107,891 - 47.41%      
      Others   (Independent):    184,205 - 2.81%      
                     
      Totals …       6,555,350          
                     
      Texas               
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    5,422,824 - 54.27%      
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    4,262,718 - 42.66%      
      Others   (Independent):    306,764 -   3.07%      
                     
      Totals …       9,992,306          
                     
      Virginia               
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    1,875,369 - 45.32%      
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    2,114,963 - 51.11%      
      Others   (Independent):    147,729 - 3.57%   
                     
      Totals …       4,138,062          
                     
      Wisconsin               
                     
      Pence/Haley   (Republican):    1,567,458 - 50.63%   
      Brown/Malloy   (Democratic):    1,461,578 - 47.21%
      Others   (Independent):    66,872 - 2.16%      
                     
      Totals …       3,095,908          

[The_Doctor]

(Unless requested, we'll skip over the full gubernatorial and congressional results unlike last time.)

[Frodo]

(Unless requested, we'll skip over the full gubernatorial and congressional results unlike last time.)

I'm requesting it.  I'd also like to know about the legislatures, since 2020 (like 2010) is a redistricting year.

[The_Doctor]

(Unless requested, we'll skip over the full gubernatorial and congressional results unlike last time.)

I'm requesting it.  I'd also like to know about the legislatures, since 2020 (like 2010) is a redistricting year.

OK I'll put up results too for these later today. Then a meta explanation why Pence won, then a "article" writing why the GOP won. Then we move onto 2021.

[Frodo]

(Unless requested, we'll skip over the full gubernatorial and congressional results unlike last time.)

I'm requesting it.  I'd also like to know about the legislatures, since 2020 (like 2010) is a redistricting year.

OK I'll put up results too for these later today. Then a meta explanation why Pence won, then a "article" writing why the GOP won. Then we move onto 2021.

Thanks!  I'm especially curious about a post-mortem on Minnesota, and the Midwest in general.

[The_Doctor]

Slightly delayed because of work but what will come up is

1. Full Senate and Gubernatorial results for contested stats
2. A governor & legislature matrix
3. Meta results analysis
4. In character newspaper article analysis

And that brings us to 2021.

(2021-2025 will be a very tumultous and difficult period to write about so bear with me. It's going to see many trends converge and cause considerable disruption).

[The_Doctor]

United States Senate Elections

54 Republicans
44 Democrats
2 Independents (Democratic aligned)

Colorado - United States Senate
         
Cory Gardner (Republican): 1,485,162 - 48.22%
Jared Polis   (Democratic):  1,563,394 - 50.76% - WINNER
Others (Independent):  31,416 - 1.02%
         
Totals …   3,079,972 | Margin: 2.54%

Iowa - United States Senator         
            
Joni Ernst (Republican): 930,048 - 59.75% - WINNER
Patty Hogg (Democratic): 603,792 - 38.79%
Others (Independent): 22,726 - 1.46%
            
Totals …   1,556,565 | Margin: 20.96%

Maine - United States Senator
      
Bruce Polinquin (Republican): 387,950 - 48.79%
Phil Bartlett (Democratic): 392,005 - 49.30% - WINNER
Others   (Independent): 15,187 - 1.91%
         
Totals … 795,142 | Margin: 0.51%
         
Michigan - United States Senator
         
Candice Miller (Republican): 2,259,068 - 46.14%
Gary Peters (Democratic): 2,577,316 - 52.64% - WINNER
Others (Independent): 59,732 - 1.22%
         
Totals … 4,896,116 | Margin: 6.50%

New Hampshire   - United States Senate         
            
Shawn Jasper (Republican): 346,324 - 45.39%
Jeanne Shaheen (Democratic): 409,348 - 53.65% - WINNER
Others (Independent): 7,325 - 0.96%
            
Totals … 762,997 | Margin: 8.26%

North Carolina            
            
Thomas Tillis (Republican): 2,657,112 - 52.86% - WINNER
Deborah Ross (Democratic):  2,284,131 - 45.44%
Others (Independent): 85,454 - 1.70%
            
Totals … 5,026,696 | Margin: 7.42%

[The_Doctor]

Ted Bessell, Bass God of the West has volunteered to cover gubernatorial and legislature elections for 2020 plus analysis so he will post them whenever he wants.

Thank you for the help, folks. If anyone else wants to take article writing up and analysis I'm game, so just PM me

[The_Doctor]

President Pence Given a Full Term

November 2020 - (Washington, D.C.) Michael Richard Pence, the most unlikely of Presidents, wound up winning the election for the Presidency and capturing the popular vote plurality (the first time a Republican had accomplished that in 16 years). How and why he became the winner was important to understanding 2020.

The statistics, first. 68% of the electorate was white,  while 32% were non-white. Blacks made up 12% of the electorate; Latinos 14% and Asians 4% and others 2%. Of these demographics, whites voted 61-37% Pence, a 24% margin. African Americans voted 87-11% Brown, Latinos 65-32% Brown, Asians 58-38% Brown, and others 64-33% Brown. The main reason Pence had prevailed, racially speaking, was that he had expanded the GOP margin among whites from 20 to 24 points and by a few points, shrunk the GOP deficit among Asians and Latinos. By party, it was 33% Republican, 35% Democratic, and 32% independent. The GOP had voted 91-7% Pence, Democrats 92-6% Brown, and independents broke 49-47% Pence. College educated whites broke 51-47% Pence and non-college whites broke 67-30% Pence. These had been enough to propel him to the White House and with a slender 1.7% popular vote win. It should be noted the GOP had closed their deficit from 2016 from a 4 point deficit to a 2 point deficit and won independents, allowing them to narrowly claim the popular vote. 

Every state that Donald Trump had barely lost in 2016 went Republican in 2020. Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire, and Nevada went Republican while everything else remained the same. This added up to an extra 22 electoral votes for the President over his predecessor.

The question: why?

The answer was multifaceted. The President was a stabilizing figure in a conservative era that had not run its course. An amiable “dad” figure, Mike Pence was the nonthreatening version of the Trumpian Republican Party. Centered in the Midwest and as a former radio jockey, Pence knew how to communicate with the Trump voters and regular Republican loyalists alike. Despite coming from a lily white state, Pence also was acutely aware of the need to win more minority voters to make up for the 2016 yawning deficits. Conversely, the Democratic Party had embraced the Sanders agenda but absent a major rationale for the Sanders agenda to be enacted, the Reaganite coalition held.

Impeachment had threatened Trump and the Democrats had looked poised to win it all. But Pence’s victory was both a surprise and unsurprising. Both Gerald Ford and Al Gore had finished within 2% of their rivals (with Gore winning the popular vote). With the added benefit of incumbency and the fact he had been an elected vice president, Pence was able to beat back the headwinds facing him.

First, the Republican campaign.

The Republicans, as early as 2019, knew they had a problem. The Trump bombast and divisive campaign of 2016 could not simply hold. The GOP could not afford a replay of 2016 where the Republicans simply tried to divide and conquer their way to victory and blast the Democratic nominee’s negatives into the sky. More ever, Pence was not a candidate with a character of negative campaigning. He wasn’t opposed to it but he did not take to it like Donald Trump did (which is to say, Trump took to it like a duck took to water). 

With the economic recovery underway, the Pence White House tapped Haley as Vice President to send a signal to women and minorities alike that this was not simply some sort of angry Trumpian white working class Party and it was a broad coalition open to anyone who wished to join. The White House kept a tight control over communication and public image management, unlike the 2016 campaign. Pence’s team executed a carefully choreographed set of events designed to create positive ratings (Pence appeared in minority areas, appeared in schools, the usual). This was a rerun of George W. Bush’s 2000 campaign strategy, designed to humanize the candidate (and it had worked).

The President had also been careful not to offend the core of the Trump coalition, and to that extent, the opioid bill was an overt nod to their concerns. It was designed to cater to the communities that had been hollowed out by the drug war. During the campaign, Pence had also avoided talking about entitlement reform - which had sunk in 2017. On trade, he made similar comments to Donald Trump in 2016 and refused to commit to the Trans Pacific Partnership and similar deals (going so far to question them and embracing fair trade ideals, in a vague way, which ran contrary to his past positions). In a nutshell, Pence, by making careful strategic overtures, kept the Trump voters in the GOP coalition.

These factors combined allowed Pence to go into 2020 a competitive contender, although one that faced a narrow re-election struggle. Polarization simply meant that the President would not be able to field a blowout victory. (Nor was the famously anti-populist Pence a compatible candidate to reprise Teddy Roosevelt’s populist 1904 blowout).

Then the Democrats came in.

The Sanders wing had cemented control over the Democratic Party and the Party was moving in a more liberal direction. In that vein, it was a natural progression that Senator Brown or someone from the populist wing of the Democratic Party to represent them in the 2020 elections. That the election had been a narrow loss in the popular vote signified that the polarization continued unabated - and that the liberal populist strain that mirrored the conservative populism - was a feature that would stay in the Democratic Party.

But where things had gone wrong was that Senator Brown had failed to present a rationale to ousting a mild mannered incumbent President who was presiding over a stable economy. Brown’s populism seemed more fitting to the angry ethos of 2016 and it seemed the Democratic Party had picked a good standard bearer who was caught fighting against the kind of headwinds that defeated him.

In the end, a stable economy, the GOP fielding a fairly competitive nominee who was more disciplined than his predecessor and possessed the incumbency factor, and the Trump coalition not finding a reason to go elsewhere all delivered the White House to Mike Pence.

When the results came in, the 61% among white voters translated into a stronger base of support across the Midwest (including white Minnesota and Maine, allowing the GOP to be victorious in both states). The suburban areas of the Midwest ran 3-4% more Republican than 2016 and the President benefited as a result.

The GOP Congress, as a result of Pence’s victory, was also able to hang on. The shock victory of Phil Bartlett and the less surprising victory of Jared Polis marred the GOP celebration but every other GOP incumbent had held on. Maine had a long history of bucking the presidential party and straight party voting while Colorado was bluing - so these explained these results.

All in all, 2020 was not the shock and awe election of 2016. It had been a fairly sedate affair and Americans had voted to not switch horses in midstream.

[The_Doctor]

Notes: Please see the Senate election results here and the Pence write up here.  Bassett will deliver the gubernatorial and legislature results & write ups.

META

OK. Meta time. Why did I pick Brown, why is Pence winning, why is the sky blue, so many questions. I’ll answer them all.

First, upfront, I always intended 2020 to be a Republican victory. Ergo, Mike Pence’s victory. The only thing that’s really changed in this timeline is that we shifted from Walker to Trump, and given how I think things will shake out, I think Trump will not be a full term President. But I think that the cards, given the era we live in, suggest that the next Democratic victory will be a realigning event and that narrow elections will favor the GOP.

To explain this, a bit, I think we’re clear now that a conservative coalition exists in the United States that more or less is dominant. It’s not as dominant as it was in the 1980s and 1990s but it certainly has cachet and the power to sway elections.  I think the operative question of the next eight years is how this coalition exists and how it will be broken up. Put plainly, absent a huge Pence scandal, I feel that simply that the coalition will stick around and reward Pence with his own term. There’s some precedent for this; Coolidge was empowered with his own term in 1924 despite the Harding Administration being stock full of scandals. Harding, had he lived, would have faced a tough 1924 elections and Coolidge was able to avert that difficult election. (It’s notable the Progressives scored as much as they did, which portended the Roosevelt coalition eight years later).

Whites do get more Republican (they voted 60-38% in 2016 for the House, for example) and with the calmer Pence at the helm, a lot of squeamish ‘16 Republicans probably do return to the fold. And minorities might be more open to a more strategic GOP. Again, with the economy, stability, etc this kind of makes sense.

Impeachment is not necessarily a portent of defeat for a President’s party. Ford came within 2 points of winning and might have won if he hadn’t gaffed in the second debate; Gore did indeed win the popular vote. So it’s not irrational to assume an elected GOP incumbent Vice President would be able to win the Presidency on his own.

The economic crisis of 2008 probably suggests that there won’t be a second major crisis by 2020. There would be a recession because the business cycle says plainly that we can’t go more than ten years without a recession, so the 2018-2019 period saw a recession. So the GOP benefited from the economic upswing in 2020.  (Now, if the recession in actuality happens in 2020 that might elect a Democrat).

The thing is, I just don’t see the major crisis happening by 2020 to kick out the GOP. The GOP coalition has stuck around since 1980 and it has been fairly durable. It’s going to take a major event to crack it up and that event hasn’t happened (there’s a certain timeline where we do realign in 2020 but that’s not this timeline).

I picked Brown because of all the elections I’ve planned to put a lot of thought into, 2020 is the least. I picked Brown because he epitomized the Sanders wing and was a respectable figure. I also have Brown selected for another reason, which you’ll see in the next election. Here’s a hint: I’ve stolen from history as far as 2024 goes.

The Democrats are also presented as the losers because of the party’s weak bench. The governors are all in their first terms, the party’s leadership is old, and the Senators are not really the best candidates to launch a Presidential bid. So there’s a sense of the Democratic Party being unable to field the top notch talent to beat Pence.

Anyway, all in all, 2020 is the “calm” before the storm.  I’ll take questions now if you have any.

[GoTfan]

How did the gubernatorial elections in Vermont and New Hampshire go? I imagine given Vermont's nature, a Progressive Party member might's run as a Democrat.

[Mike Thick]

Wrote these up with TD's blessing. It's Gubernatorials where either a new Governor was elected or the race was somewhat competitive. I might have another post up for maps sometime today.

United States Gubernatorial Elections, 2020

31 Democrats
18 Republicans
1 Independent

Montana - Governor

Tim Fox (Republican): 285,421 - 53.88%
Kendall Van Dyk (Democrat): 228,157 - 43.07%
Others (Independent): 16,157 - 3.05%

Totals … 529,735 | Margin: 10.81%

New Hampshire - Governor

Chris Sununu (Republican): 397,826 - 51.77%
Jeff Woodburn (Democrat): 359,403 - 46.77%
Others (Independent): 11,220 1.46%

Totals … 768,449 | Margin: 5.00%

North Carolina - Governor

Mark Meadows (Republican): 2,179,106 - 43.35%
Roy Cooper (Democrat): 2,772,767 - 55.16%
Others (Independent): 74,899 - 1.49%

Totals … 5,026,772 | Margin: 11.81%

Utah - Governor

Jason Chaffetz (Republican): 742, 596 - 65.64%
Jeff Holtzmann (Democrat): 355,120 - 31.39%
Others (Independent): 33,600 - 2.97%

Totals … 1,131,316 | Margin: 34.25%

Vermont - Governor

Michael Schirling (Republican): 152,387 - 44.86%
Miro Weinberger (Democrat): 175,316 - 51.61%
Others (Independent): 11,991 3.53%

Totals … 339,694 | Margin: 6.75%

Washington - Governor

Michael Waite (Republican): 1,446,160 - 44.10%
Cyrus Habib (Democrat): 1,833,114 - 55.90%

Totals … 3,279,274 | Margin: 14.80%

West Virginia - Governor:

Evan Jenkins (Republican): 316,887 - 46.58%
Jim Justice (Democrat): 347,433 - 51.07%
Others (Independent): 15,987 - 2.35%

Totals … 680,307 | 4.49%

    As with the other 2020 races, there were few surprises downticket. Only two Governorships changed hands -- Democratic Mayor Miro Weinberger of Burlington defeated Republican Michael Schirling, the State Secretary of Commerce, to succeed moderate Republican Phil Scott as Governor of Vermont, but State Attorney General Tim Fox beat State Senator Kendall Van Dyk to take the Governorship of Montana from termed-out Democrat Steve Bullock. As expected, Chris Sununu won a third term in New Hampshire by a five-point margin in a rather sleepy race. Incumbent Republicans won re-election fairly easily in states like Indiana, North Dakota, and Missouri, while Congressman Jason Chaffetz won election to the Utah Governors’ Mansion by a wide margin.

    The GOP gained back the New Hampshire and Iowa Houses of Representatives, which they had lost in 2018, but fell just short in Michigan and Minnesota. They were also able to take back the State Senates of Maine and Wisconsin. Democrats had their highlights as well, expanding on gains they had made in states like New Mexico and Texas, further exemplifying the Southwest’s slow turn towards Democrats. However, like races up the ticket, there were few major changes.

    However, Democrats seem to have had what few standout moments there were in the 2020 state-level elections. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper trounced Congressman Mark Meadows to win a second term, even as President Pence and Senator Thom Tillis both carried the swing state narrowly. In West Virginia, Jim Justice overcame a double-digit polling deficit in the spring to defeat well-funded U.S. Representative Evan Jenkins by four points in the deeply Republican state. And Lieutenant Governor Cyrus Habib of Washington, an Iranian-American who has been blind since the age of eight, is set to become the youngest Governor in the country at age 39.

    The 2020 elections were fairly dry. But sometimes dry is a good thing.

[BuckeyeNut]

Confused at why Pence did better in Maine than Trump. Nevada and Minnesota are also a bit odd, though I can rationalize NV, somewhat, because of course Pence would do better with Hispanics.

[The_Doctor]

Confused at why Pence did better in Maine than Trump. Nevada and Minnesota are also a bit odd, though I can rationalize NV, somewhat, because of course Pence would do better with Hispanics.

1. Maine. It was close in 2016 and LePage won it in 2014. It suggests there is some support for the GOP in this very white Northeastern state. I'm betting the Trump coalition + some moderate-right white voters push Pence over the top and remember, Mainers put LePage in the governor's mansion twice. (The second time with a bigger percent than his first time). I think Upper Maine will vote more heavily GOP and some areas that went narrowly to Clinton/split areas will go to Pence.

2. Minnesota. Minnesota came close to going GOP in 2016. Same explanation as Maine, really. It's a lily white state full of blue collar whites who have historically voted Democratic and are now attracted to the GOP's industrial message. I don't expect Pence to deviate that much from Trump and return to free trade orthodoxy that much, given the appeal of Trump. I expect Pence to integrate the Trump coalition into the GOP.

3. Nevada. Without the famed Reid machine and improving among Latinos marginally, the GOP prevails in Nevada narrowly.
 

[The_Doctor]

Meta Note, Author's Potpurri, Etc.

OK some notes. A huge thank you to Ted Bessell, Bass God of the West, for his great write up and help with these results! I was dreading this part and he really helped.

So, this is the bit that we've all been waiting for, the heart of the story, the Great Realignment. We've started in 2014 and now we're in 2021. Seven years later, and 4 more years to go. But it's time we talked about the big stuff to come.

So, we're in 2021. Pence is being sworn in for a second term. Much drama is about to erupt. I think we're now down to the final 8-10 articles (unless I chronicle the next President's first term). We're going to get into the crisis that I've alluded to and it's been lurking all this while. 

Getting this crisis right is probably a fool's errand. Realignments are rarely seen as realignment on Election Night, for that matter. It took a while for people to recognize Lincoln as a realigning President, Jefferson too (who had a competitive election in 1800). FDR was only seen as a realigning President in maybe the 1950s, because up to 1946, the GOP had this ambition to toss the New Deal. It took until 1994-2000 for Reagan to be seen as a realigning President and even today some liberals don't accept it.

Even more difficult is nailing the sequence of events that lead up to it. In hindsight, we all would have guessed the Civil War would radically reshape the country, and that stagflation and the cultural upheaval of the 1960s and 1970s would lead to the Reagan Revolution. But at the time, nobody saw the events coming and that's why nailing the Great Crisis is going to be so hard. (I'm going to point out that nobody got the stock market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression right, even though there were warnings in 1908 and 1920 that implied it).

Realignments are not easy events. They're Haley's Comets, they come around once every two generations. There's warning signs, leading up to it. But they're so slight that they can be mistaken as static noise. And a lot of times, events do wind up static noise. But some are realigning hints.

The interesting thing about past realignments is that the part of the electorate that shifted was the part that was least expected to ever shift. The Industrial North electorate went from swing to hard Republican from 1845 to 1860. African Americans went from Lincoln Republicans to Roosevelt Democrats while working class urban whites swung hard to the Democrats. The Baby Boomers went from hippies to Reaganauts.

I do have some ideas of who will shift hardest and why. I think it'll surprise you as much as it did me.

Pence's narrow victory of 49-47% is a hint. He barely wins the popular vote and while he comfortably wins the electoral college, he has this narrowness that suggests there's huge opposition to him and the Republican Party. It also suggests that the GOP is incapable of broadening its tent in substantial numbers barring a massive electoral loss because the GOP's ideological agenda is deeply polarizing. In other words, the GOP doesn't seem the party to break the 20 years of narrow electoral results and polarization we've had.

So that leaves the Democrats.

The backdrop to this is that the Democrats, functionally, have been the minority party since 1980. The Democratic White Houses have been negated by the GOP Congresses and political opinion. No liberal has truly reigned in the White House unchecked since the 1960s. Now, we're going to see how the Democrats reconfigure and reassess and come into its own. The process will be painful, arduous, and agonizing.

Meanwhile, the GOP fissures that began to emerge in '16 (much like the civil war of 1912) are going to be making a comeback. You'll remember that TR's famous fight against Taft had reverberations that were felt all the way to 1932. 

The crisis may not even be economic, mind you. The Civil War certainly wasn't. The Reagan Revolution and Jefferson's victory over Adams were cultural and political, in that order.

So...anyway, this is going to take a while to write up and I hope to be finished by March. Ask anything you'd like and I'll try to answer.

[GoTfan]

Looks like Bernie is being made into a progressive Barry Goldwater: Losing the election, but laying the groundwork for a similar ideology to triumph in a landslide in the future.

[Pericles]

Just read this TL-it is very good! I noticed that Mike Pence got the most votes of any presidential candidate in US history, raw vote wise. It is a very interesting and unique take on the Trump presidency and the next four years, and I look forward to seeing more of this. Keep up the good work!

[The_Doctor]

If you have ideas and suggestions for the Great Crisis, PM me. I'm taking ideas and doing my final outline and putting together the last 10 articles.

[The_Doctor]

Looks like Bernie is being made into a progressive Barry Goldwater: Losing the election, but laying the groundwork for a similar ideology to triumph in a landslide in the future.

Henry Clay, William J. Bryan, and Barry Goldwater were all major presidential losers who wound up impacting the realigning Presidencies of Lincoln, Roosevelt, and Reagan. History is quite clear that yes, there is a great loss that leads to eventual victory.

I just discovered that Lincoln spoke at Clay's funeral, and idolized him. Clay fits the model of not only foreshadowing figure (it's not perfect because he was never an opposition President) but also someone who had a connection to Lincoln indirectly. Roosevelt met with Bryan in the 1920s and sought to link himself with Bryan's populism, as well, famously in 1924. And everyone knows about Goldwater and Reagan.

I've neglected Bernie's long term game here but that's going to be discussed at some length. Like Goldwater and Bryan, he is a deeply ideological figure who is doomed in his time.

[MAINEiac4434]

Looks like Bernie is being made into a progressive Barry Goldwater: Losing the election, but laying the groundwork for a similar ideology to triumph in a landslide in the future.

Which I think was his IRL point for running, at least initially.