Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Party registration by state sometime in the 2040s. Democrats hold an overall lead, and shades represent margins.

[GlobeSoc]

Rushed out adding Illinois because I am not going to be able to access my current device for a couple days and I want to be able to download it from the gallery on an alternate

[_]

R+3?

[GlobeSoc]

R+3?

Possible, but I'd think that it would be D+2 to R+2. A 'true' toss up in a close election.

[Gone to Carolina]

So last night we were discussing the potential realigning presidents in the discord, and I was looking at the North Carolina Governorship, as I had previously noticed that had Roy Cooper vastly outperformed Clinton in Appalachia. In fact in the Southwestern Counties he outperformed her by as much as 10%, the Trump-Cooper voters in this region in effectively gave Cooper several times his margin over McCrory.

Well I decided to look at the trend map for the gubernatorial election, and behold, nearly all of the Appalachian counties trended Democratic. I'm not really sure why this happened, but I wonder if this has any relevance to the idea of Appalachian whites returning to the Democratic Party. In Southwestern North Carolina, at least at the local level, somewhere between 30~45% of people seem willing to vote for the Democrats at this time.

[Blackacre]

One quick observation about the rise and fall of these majorities is that it seems like the longer (and possibly weaker) the majority is, the worse the crisis that ends it AND the worse it does in the start of the next alignment.

The Jefferson/Jackson majority was ended by a civil war that resulted in its home party getting completely shut out of everything, enough so that the new Lincoln majority being able to force through constitutional amendments on a party-line vote.

The Lincoln/McKinley majority ended in the Great Depression, an economic catastrophe that lasted around 12 years. The party that housed this majority became so thoroughly shut out of power that the Roosevelt Democrats maintained a 2/3s majority in the Senate after the 1938 midterms, and the 1934 midterms were a complete reversal from what we expect midterms to be like.

The Roosevelt majority only lasted 48 years, but it ended much more softly, with a foreign policy kerfuffle, protests, and stagflation. That all sounds bad, but it pales in comparison to the Depression and to the Civil War. Also, while the Democrats left their majority earlier than previous majorities ended, the Reagan Republicans didn't actually start their era with a Trifecta! Indeed, they never got anything remotely close to the majorities enjoyed by the past three majorities.

Finally, if TD's timeline as written is correct, the Reagan Majority lasts 44 years and ends with a financial explosion. There's a bit of an idiosyncrasy here. On the one hand, the crisis itself, once again, isn't nearly as bad as the Civil War and Great Depression. It lasts 6 years, from 2021 until 2027, or about half the length of the Great Depression. Cordray, like Reagan, is able to steer the economic ship of state before re-election.

On the other hand, the Republicans end up much worse than Roosevelt's Democrats, losing the House and the Senate by substantial margins. However, they don't end up as badly as Lincoln's GOP did. The Cordray Dems only have a 2/3s Senate majority (and the ability to change the constitution) for two years, and the 2030 midterms actually affect things by giving the GOP the ability to filibuster again.

So, when it comes to majorities, the longer they are, the harder they fall?

[GlobeSoc]

With the addition of Maryland it became really obvious that most of the suburbs of the BosWash form a GOP stronghold(except for the DC metro)

[BuckeyeNut]

Sorry to TD, but it looks like Cordray has passed on running.

[Blackacre]

Sorry to TD, but it looks like Cordray has passed on running.

aw well, TD himself admitted that he's better with the what and the why than the who.

[_]

Eggman, what's Maryland's PVI here?

Also the South is coming up yay!!!

[GlobeSoc]

My map isn't dead, I've just been busy and unable to work on it.

I'll post an update Soon^TM

[GlobeSoc]

[The Govanah Jake]

I know Oklahoma would still have a republican PVI but i wonder how much due to Democrat gains in the Southeast (Which is nice and looks better then all republican all sweep of county's in present Oklahoma). Same with Virginia due to Republicans regained strength in the suburbs of the southeast and partially the north and center regions though that is in exchange for more rural and poor southwestern and south center county's. I assume it is either a small D PVI like a D-1/2 however it could just as well be a even one and possibly though unlikely a small R PVI of like D-.25-1%.

[GlobeSoc]

I know Oklahoma would still have a republican PVI but i wonder how much due to Democrat gains in the Southeast (Which is nice and looks better then all republican all sweep of county's in present Oklahoma). Same with Virginia due to Republicans regained strength in the suburbs of the southeast and partially the north and center regions though that is in exchange for more rural and poor southwestern and south center county's. I assume it is either a small D PVI like a D-1/2 however it could just as well be a even one and possibly though unlikely a small R PVI of like D-.25-1%.

VA is a modestly republican state, R+1 to R+3

[The Govanah Jake]

I know Oklahoma would still have a republican PVI but i wonder how much due to Democrat gains in the Southeast (Which is nice and looks better then all republican all sweep of county's in present Oklahoma). Same with Virginia due to Republicans regained strength in the suburbs of the southeast and partially the north and center regions though that is in exchange for more rural and poor southwestern and south center county's. I assume it is either a small D PVI like a D-1/2 however it could just as well be a even one and possibly though unlikely a small R PVI of like D-.25-1%.

VA is a modestly republican state, R+1 to R+3

Yea i see that now. I didn't zoom in on NOVA when i said that. I now see that Fairfax is close and the Republicans win Alexandria and republicans are getting 60%< in some of those upper Virginian county's too. I assume this is do to wealthier suburbs of both white and minority stature coming home to the republican party post realignment. The same could be said in the Southeast and in the center regions where republicans retake the democratic gains there. How about Oklahoma though? I'm going to say anywhere from R+5/10 to R+15.

[GlobeSoc]

I know Oklahoma would still have a republican PVI but i wonder how much due to Democrat gains in the Southeast (Which is nice and looks better then all republican all sweep of county's in present Oklahoma). Same with Virginia due to Republicans regained strength in the suburbs of the southeast and partially the north and center regions though that is in exchange for more rural and poor southwestern and south center county's. I assume it is either a small D PVI like a D-1/2 however it could just as well be a even one and possibly though unlikely a small R PVI of like D-.25-1%.

VA is a modestly republican state, R+1 to R+3

Yea i see that now. I didn't zoom in on NOVA when i said that. I now see that Fairfax is close and the Republicans win Alexandria and republicans are getting 60%< in some of those upper Virginian county's too. I assume this is do to wealthier suburbs of both white and minority stature coming home to the republican party post realignment. The same could be said in the Southeast and in the center regions where republicans retake the democratic gains there. How about Oklahoma though? I'm going to say anywhere from R+5/10 to R+15.

For the record, that map isn't 100% literal.My system is is

>40%=tilt/lean
>50%=likely
>60%=safe

I'd imagine that a lot of safe counties might be in the upper 50s in actual vote %, for example.

[GlobeSoc]

[ltomlinson31]

The Democrats finally win counties in Oklahoma!

[PoliticalShelter]

Is South Carolina now a swing state in this alignment?

[The Govanah Jake]

I know Oklahoma would still have a republican PVI but i wonder how much due to Democrat gains in the Southeast (Which is nice and looks better then all republican all sweep of county's in present Oklahoma). Same with Virginia due to Republicans regained strength in the suburbs of the southeast and partially the north and center regions though that is in exchange for more rural and poor southwestern and south center county's. I assume it is either a small D PVI like a D-1/2 however it could just as well be a even one and possibly though unlikely a small R PVI of like D-.25-1%.

VA is a modestly republican state, R+1 to R+3

Yea i see that now. I didn't zoom in on NOVA when i said that. I now see that Fairfax is close and the Republicans win Alexandria and republicans are getting 60%< in some of those upper Virginian county's too. I assume this is do to wealthier suburbs of both white and minority stature coming home to the republican party post realignment. The same could be said in the Southeast and in the center regions where republicans retake the democratic gains there. How about Oklahoma though? I'm going to say anywhere from R+5/10 to R+15.

For the record, that map isn't 100% literal.My system is is

>40%=tilt/lean
>50%=likely
>60%=safe

I'd imagine that a lot of safe counties might be in the upper 50s in actual vote %, for example.

Oh I know. All I'm noting is in some northern Virginia counties I could see in some of those safe republican 60% and more for the republican nominee whomever that may be on average. Also I find it strange how they would lose Prince Williams County in this scenario. It seems perfect for this Republican Party: College Educated, Surburban, Filled with Wealthier Minority's and Whites.

[GlobeSoc]

I know Oklahoma would still have a republican PVI but i wonder how much due to Democrat gains in the Southeast (Which is nice and looks better then all republican all sweep of county's in present Oklahoma). Same with Virginia due to Republicans regained strength in the suburbs of the southeast and partially the north and center regions though that is in exchange for more rural and poor southwestern and south center county's. I assume it is either a small D PVI like a D-1/2 however it could just as well be a even one and possibly though unlikely a small R PVI of like D-.25-1%.

VA is a modestly republican state, R+1 to R+3

Yea i see that now. I didn't zoom in on NOVA when i said that. I now see that Fairfax is close and the Republicans win Alexandria and republicans are getting 60%< in some of those upper Virginian county's too. I assume this is do to wealthier suburbs of both white and minority stature coming home to the republican party post realignment. The same could be said in the Southeast and in the center regions where republicans retake the democratic gains there. How about Oklahoma though? I'm going to say anywhere from R+5/10 to R+15.

For the record, that map isn't 100% literal.My system is is

>40%=tilt/lean
>50%=likely
>60%=safe

I'd imagine that a lot of safe counties might be in the upper 50s in actual vote %, for example.

Oh I know. All I'm noting is in some northern Virginia counties I could see in some of those safe republican 60% and more for the republican nominee whomever that may be on average. Also I find it strange how they would lose Prince Williams County in this scenario. It seems perfect for this Republican Party: College Educated, Surburban, Filled with Wealthier Minority's and Whites.

You are right, I'll adjust it to 50% R

[Blackacre]

in this county map, which candidate is winning? Or is this for a hypothetical election of 2044, where the PV is pretty much tied?

[GlobeSoc]

in this county map, which candidate is winning? Or is this for a hypothetical election of 2044, where the PV is pretty much tied?

Supposed to be tied, if it seems like it isn't once I'm done, I'll tinker with it until it is.

[Calthrina950]

From these maps, it looks as if the Republicans still win the majority of counties nationwide. That doesn't seem like much of a realignment to me, merely a shifting (or tinkering) of today's voting patterns.

[GlobeSoc]

I just had a weird thought: what if the alt-right are the closest thing to this alignment's hippies? There are differences, but history rhymes, I guess?

Similarities:
-Small, yet vocal minority of the last pre-realignment generation
-An ideologically impure offshoot of the majority party(A lot of the New Left became economic centrists)
-Being a major pain to the majority party in various primaries, yet achieving little success(Trump is arguably the alt-right's only major politician, and even that's a stretch)
-Drags the mainstream in the opposite direction to their faction by being blatantly disruptive/offensive to 'normal' discourse(Of course you could argue this point about SJW's, but luckily for the dems, the lense is magnified by the context of our times on the nominally nationalist Trump, weakening focus on them. Low-info apathetic people will only see Trump falling on his face.)