Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[The_Doctor]

Note: A bit of a throwback but essential reading. Last throwback article and then we’ll move on to the GOP and Democratic Conventions in 2020. It’s a minor (relatively) story about how Trump disabled the North Korean nuclear regime and marks one of the few successes in the Trump era. It will be referenced by the 2020 GOP Convention so we should talk about it.  Yes, we’re retconning Giuliani and putting in Tillerson. Normally I wouldn't do that but Tillerson's unique background makes it hard to put in a politico like Giuliani.

Trump strikes at North Korea Regime; Disables Nuke Program

(October 2017) -- (Washington, D.C.) -- President Donald Trump struck at the North Korean regime in a surprise attack at dawn (Pyonyang time) and disabled the nuclear program that the regime had built. After months of warning and negotiations between the United States and China, the Americans had decided to unilaterally disarm Kim Jong-Un’s nuclear capabilities.

President Obama had advised his successor that the North Korean nuclear program would need to be seriously curtailed or else the region faced imminent danger. Soon after President Trump was inaugurated, the United States held high level secret talks with the People’s Republic of China. They put pressure on Beijing to rein in Pyonyang and to force Kim Jong-Un to dismantle his program. The Chinese stalled, angry at the United States’ economic retaliatory measures and for months, talks dragged out without resolution.

In early September, the National Security Council convened to draw up plans to take out the Korean nuclear missile program unilaterally. In a series of limited strikes, the United States would attack and take out North Korea’s missile program - the first time any military power had taken action against another military power for the express purpose of destroying its nuclear program. The President, not usually a man prone to military action despite all his bravado, approved the limited strikes and advised his Council that the Chinese would need to be onboard with the program.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson shuttled between Washington and Beijing, brokering a high level deal where the Chinese agreed to turn over intelligence regarding the program and to refuse to come to North Korea’s aid in the aftermath. In response, the United States would give in on key concessions regarding China’s dominance in the South Pacific. Japan’s Abe Shinzo was also appraised and signed off on the mission as did the South Korean government.  

In early October, the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan was sent to the naval base in Yokosuka, Japan and prepared for the mission. In final secret negotiations, Kim Jong-Un refused to give up his nuclear warheads and Washington walked away. Believing that the talks would continue on the North Koreans were in the dark.

On the morning of October 12, 2017, U.S. bomber planes flew over the secret facilities and struck them, decisively and with precision. Before a single nuclear warhead could be fired, U.S. warplanes had taken out the facilities, rendering North Korea without the capabilities to take out South Korea or Japan. Shortly after the 8:00 bombing runs, the Chinese Ambassador to North Korea notified the government that China would not help in any retaliation against the United States - and indeed, were action to be taken to that end, China would respond with military action against the regime.

Furious, Kim Jong-Un tried to rally the military for an armed invasion of South Korea. But without the nuclear warheads and with the USS Reagan sitting offshore,  the regime’s leader was not in much of a position to argue. He reluctantly agreed, within 48 hours, to allow the United Nations to investigate freely any nuclear facility within the country, and to allow international inspectors free rein. The regime was seriously destabilized by the attack and Kim Jong-Un’s power was under siege. Within a few years, the North Korean regime would fall and Kim Jong-Un would be forced to flee overseas for his personal safety.

At home, the Trump Administration was applauded for its decisive action on the North Korean nuclear program. China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea all lauded the White House for decisively ending a threat to regional stability and for a time, the President would be praised as a decisive leader.

[The_Doctor]

Note: Please see the North Korean story here.

2020 Conventions: Brown/Malloy v. Pence/Haley

(July 2020) -- (New York, New York & Detroit, Michigan). The Republicans and the Democrats convened for the 2020 Presidential elections in two very different cities. The Democrats chose New York City, while the GOP chose Detroit, Michigan. The contrast was studied; the Democrats took a major Eastern city that was the home of the 45th President and was in the state of the 42nd President. The GOP chose their newfound Midwestern beachhead to hold their Conventions.

First, the Democrats.

Senator Sherrod Brown arrived in New York City, having announced northeastern liberal Gov. Dannel P. Malloy (D-Ct.) to be the Vice Presidential nominee. The Connecticut Governor was a sign to the eastern liberals that the Democratic nominee would not merely be an economic but social liberal. The Democratic Party’s wings were solidly liberal; the major issue had been corporate v. grassroots, not ideology. The grassroots wing had triumphed, as they had in the GOP in 2016.

Senator Brown was acclaimed as the party’s answer to the loss of 2016 in the Midwest. With his fiery populist message, many Democrats went into the Convention feeling confident of a November victory. Gov. Malloy was furthermore seen as a reason for social liberals to turn out in the traditional blue states and the major cities. For the Democrats, they needed to energize their urban base to turn out while winning back Obama white voters in the Midwest. Ergo, the calculation of the Democratic ticket.

From Day 1 to 4, the Democrats promoted a theme of economic populism married to social liberalism, and a grassroots frustration with the corporate GOP. Governor Malloy, a fiscal moderate, gamely signed onto Senator Brown’s populism. The Democrats roundly attacked the GOP ticket’s “big corporate give aways” and “1% agenda,” language that was directly lifted from Bernie Sanders in 2016.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was of course given a major speaking slot. So was former President Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Vice President Joe Biden (D-De.) They remained the three most popular Democratic stars in the Party and the country at large. Senator Sanders, playing the long game, saw Sen. Brown echo his themes of economic progressivism and the need to level the playing field for the forgotten Americans. President Obama and Vice President Biden did much the same, although the former President offered a more nuanced defense.

The  differences between Obama and Sanders were striking, tonally and stylistically. Obama had cast himself as a technocratic reformer with a scalpel while Sanders was a sledgehammer of populism. Splitting the difference was Biden, who blended both men’s styles and delivered one of the convention’s most popular addresses. (Many in the audience wished Joe Biden had run in 2016).

Secretary Hillary Clinton and former President Bill Clinton gave speeches, of course, but it was no longer their Democratic Party. Unlike past conventions, the mood was that they were revered figures from a bygone age - the halycon 1990s, where the Democratic Party had moderated to win in the post-Reagan 1980s paradigm. Indeed, while they were both well received, the delegates reserved their loudest applause for the Sanders and the new Democratic message.

The newly elected Governors and Senators from 2018 had prominent speaking slots. Gov. Richard Cordray (D-Ohio), Gov. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), Gov. Gavin Newsome (D-Calif.), Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), Gov. Alex Giannoulias (D-Ill.) and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) were among the party’s stars. So was former Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander (D-Mo.) among others. Were Sen. Sherrod Brown to fall short in November, many of these speakers would addressing the delegation in 2024. They promoted their own brand of populist progressivism and reform.

The Democratic Presidential nominee himself, Sherrod Campbell Brown, addressed the delegates to raucous cheers. The Democratic nominee lambasted the “Trump-Pence” years, tying the President to his disgraced predecessor. He also tied the President to the top 1% and said the GOP had reneged their promises to renegotiate unfair trade deals. “The moment is now,” he exhorted, “for a new deal for the American people, a real deal that will help the people!” Casting the election as between a 1% President beholden to the corrupt practices of his predecessor and unable to deliver for the American people and the reform-minded Democratic campaign who would “clean house” and “put Washington to work for Main Street,” the Senator attempted to lure back white voters who had voted Trump and to maintain the Clinton coalition.

The Democrats had not ideologically much changed since 2016 - or for that matter, maybe, since 2000. They might have moved to the left but any Democrat in 2000 would have felt comfortable at the 2020 rostrum.

The Republican Convention was a very different affair.

President Pence and Vice President Haley arrived to accept their nomination and it was a historic first for the GOP ticket. The first minority put on the ticket, Vice President Haley - former U.N. ambassador - would represent the G.O.P’s outreach to the coalition of the ascendant.

The GOP had come to Detroit with a different set of goals and considerations. President Trump had won 46% of the vote in 2016 by rallying white voters and a slight uptick among minorities to his banner. His scorched earth strategy, however, had ended up yielding a popular vote loss of nearly 3 million. The GOP strategists wanted to rebrand the Party to both appeal to those who had turned out in 2016 and recapture voters who were open to voting GOP but didn’t want the harsh tones of 2016. The GOP also needed significant minority outreach to win the popular vote in 2020. Ergo, Haley. And ergo, a GOP Convention that was much less raucous, more orderly, and designed to set the nation at ease. The President himself, not much of a negative campaigner, happily signed onto the new tone.

The GOP Convention's slogan was “Peace, Prosperity, Unity,” which was the point of their campaign. They wanted to reassure Americans that after the tumultuous Bush and Trump Presidencies that they were in good hands with the Republicans. They wanted to recreate the magic of the Reagan - Bush 41 era where the GOP had been regarded as the stable and quiet party.

Unlike 2016, most of the Republican office holders attended the GOP Convention and spoke. President Pence was widely popular within the Party and was a far more adroit politician than former President Trump. Former Govs. Rick Snyder (R-Mich.), John Kasich (R-Ohio), Bob McDonnell (R-Va.), Susan Martinez (R-N.M), and Pat McCrory (R-N.C.) all spoke at the Convention, as did sitting GOP Governors like Gov. Doug Ducey (R-Ariz.). Senators like Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), and other swing state senators (notably, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) spoke at the GOP Convention.

The message was simple. The Republicans had kept us safe, they had kept America fairly prosperous, and they had guided the United States through stormy times. Changing horses in midstream for a radical politician would be unthinkable, at least, according to them. “Let America remain the land of opportunity!” thundered Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) at the rostrum and it encapsulated the GOP’s basic message.

The Vice President went after the Democrats with the sharp wit that had made her a legendary figure in South Carolina politics. Going for the jugular, she mocked Senator Brown and Governor Malloy for their “radical budget busting” ideas (ignoring that the Republicans were running a deficit, per usual). She also lambasted them for their “divisive identity politics” and argued the GOP would be “America’s party.” Strong language, but it carried the day at the GOP Convention.

The President himself arrived in Detroit, the figure of unity. Hewing to his decades long practice of avoiding negative campaigning, the President extolled “America’s greatness,” an implicit nod to the 2016 Trump - Pence slogan. He talked up the economy, talking about how the economic prosperity was generating jobs and “broad based prosperity,” and how the United States was at peace and “had turned the corner on the ugly recession.”  The message was clear: Pence was the candidate of stability and the United States shouldn’t fix what wasn’t broken.

Left unsaid in all this of course was the fact that the economic recovery had begun under Barack Obama and that much of the Trump - Pence economy had its underpinnings in the Obama era. But the GOP was happy to lay claim to the credit, and the Democrats were happy to rail against the Pence Administration. But as Americans listened, they were not in the rebellious mood of 2016. The Democrats would need to galvanize them, and the Republicans would need to lose control of the narrative.

As the two parties adjoined for a brutal fall campaign, the stage was set for the 2020 Presidential election. President Pence held a 48-47% lead going into the fall campaign, and it was anyone's guess who would win.

[Mike Thick]

I assume Malloy's approvals in Connecticut have recovered?

[MRX]

I need a ghost writer. This will all equal 85 - 90 articles when done.

Can I be your ghost? Looking to get back into the game on here.

Sure, PM me. We can collaborate.

Check your messages.

[The_Doctor]

Pence v. Brown: A Brutal Fall Campaign

(November 1, 2020) -- (Washington, D.C.) The race for the White House unfolded in the fall with ferocity, as the two sides waged a brutal  fight for the White House. The incumbent Republicans reprised their playbook attacking the Democrats as radicals who would put in danger the U.S. economy and the country. The Democrats lambasted the GOP as the party of the rich, and the 1%.  The difference from past campaigns, one might say, is that the Democrats were actually liberal and populist. The most fiery liberal nominee since Walter Mondale in 1984, Senator Brown was an unapologetic liberal who made no bones about it. Conversely, the President was the most radical conservative in forty years, since Ronald Reagan. The two ideological visions for America were stark, and reflected the gap between the two parties. There were no liberal Republicans left and there were no real conservative Democrats left, on the national stage. Both parties held a monopoly on their side of the ideological divide.

Television advertisements had been discredited since the 2016 campaign. Ever since former President Trump had demonstrated that ad campaigns no longer had the power to sway minds as much as energized grassroots movements and dominance on social media (and communications platforms), the two parties had taken that lesson to heart and designed their campaigns around reaching their most fervent supporters, with language designed to rally the most fervent partisans. Long gone were the days of appealing to the broad middle, the bipartisan independents, and the swing voters. In were rallying the urban minority vote, and the rural white vote, and turning out supporters in the suburbs. The battleground regions were white suburban and urban minority voter dominated.

The Democrats needed to turn out Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Madison, Miami, Raleigh, Detroit, and Pittsburgh. The Republicans needed to sweep the rural and suburban counties that had lifted them to power. The Democratic roadmap went through recapturing Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and taking Florida. The GO had to hold onto their gains of 2016 and somehow win a mandate in the popular vote.

For most of the fall, the incendiary language by both sides had inflamed an intense and close fall campaign. Neither man had been able to put away crucial battleground states although handicappers said the GOP had an edge electorally with the popular vote being a jump ball. Analysts compared it to the 1984 campaign between Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale - with the caveat that the 2020 electorate replaced the 1984 one.

Senator Brown campaigned as a Sanders liberal who was tasked to win with the Obama coalition. Campaigning as if he were John Kennedy to revive the Roosevelt-Truman coalition, Brown laid out a progressive platform. These included universal college tuition, reining in Wall Street (reinstating Glass-Steagall, for starters), single payer, ending of voter ID to vote, a hawkish soft power foreign policy that entailed reining in Russia and others through using the soft power arsenal of the United States, immigration reform, fair trade policies that included renegotiation of NAFTA, and other planks. The aim was simple: revive the great Obama coalition and invigorate the Bernie voters to go for him.  His strategists viewed his map as Obama’s map in 2012 plus North Carolina and Arizona.

The Democrats essentially put their eggs in the basket of the coalition of the ascendant and hoped to add to them white working voters that went for Obama and Trump.

The President for his part wanted to assemble the Bush-Trump Republican coalition. Namely, the GOP strategists wanted to repair the party’s image among minorities (ergo Haley), and to assemble a winning coalition that looked a lot like W’s in 2004. The President campaigned extensively in minority communities, which might have looked odd since he came from a very white state (Indiana). But the President also wanted to keep Trump 2016 voters, so he made noises about challenging China and to keep the Trump trade policies in place.

The Republicans needed to keep places like Luzerne, Pennsylvania and turn out even more GOP voters in 2020. The GOP coalition would be Perot-minded independents who backed Trump plus traditional Republicans and Republicans and conservatives who had voted for others (or stayed home) instead of the GOP ticket.  And they would include more minorities - of that part, nobody believed that they could survive forever without winning more minorities.

The Presidential debates were basically a draw. Senator Brown won the first debate, the President rebounded in the second, and they tied for the third debate. On the economy, both men tied (Clinton had won that argument). On the topic of change, Brown had an edge and Pence had an edge on foreign policy (being the sitting President).  Pence held an approval rating of anywhere between 45 and 51% during the fall campaign, with disapprovals ranging from 44 to 49%.

All campaign long, President Pence had held on by a range of a tie to 3 points. Brown had trailed consistently, but his strategists believed that like Trump in 2016, he could pull an inside straight and win the White House -- and that the coalition of the ascendant would pull him across the finish line.

Time would tell on November 3, 2020, who would be the winner.

[The_Doctor]

====================

ELECTION NIGHT 2020 COVERAGE

====================

[The_Doctor]

7:00 PM - ELECTION NIGHT

Bill: “Good evening, this is Bill Montague and joining me is Gloria Shoestall and Brett Favot. Welcome to Election Night 2020 and we have numbers for you at the outset at the 7:00 PM hour. We’re making a couple of projections.”

Gloria: “We’re projecting that Indiana - the President’s home state - goes Republican, and joining Indiana is Kentucky and South Carolina. As in 2016, Georgia is too early to call, and so is Virginia. Vermont goes to the Democratic column.”

Bill: “That makes for 28 electoral votes for the incumbent, and 3 for the Democratic challenger. Stay tuned.”

Brett: “And a few Senate calls. Mitch McConnell cruises to re-election, with 57% of the vote. Kentucky has become a predictably red state on the Presidential level. Conversely, Mark Warner, not taking re-election for granted, given his very close call in 2014, also taking 55% of the vote, reflecting that Virginia has become a bluer state. We don’t have word on David Perdue in Georgia, and Pat Leahy wins re-election in Vermont.”

NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE (2% in):

Pence/Haley (Republican): 1,247,151 - 53.84% - 28 electoral votes
Brown/Malloy (Democratic): 1,003,787 - 43.33% - 3 electoral votes
Others: 65,476 - 2.83%

Totals: 2,316,414 votes cast  | 10.51%

[The_Doctor]

7:30 PM - ELECTION NIGHT

Bill: “And with the polls closing in Senator Brown’s home state and North Carolina, we are projecting both states are too close to call. West Virginia, however, goes to the President. Democratic Governor Jim Justice wins a second term in the Mountain State, however.

Democratic Governor Roy Cooper has won re-election in North Carolina, by a healthy 55-43% margin, over the Republicans.

The President holds a lead 33-3 in the electoral college…”

[The_Doctor]

8:00 PM - ELECTION NIGHT

Bill: “And now for some pretty major calls.”

Gloria: “Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Tennessee to the President. You’ll see on the TV he won them all easily. Meanwhile, Senator Brown won Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Washington DC.”

Bill: “And that puts the electoral college at 76-65 Pence. Ohio is too close to call at this hour.”

Brett: “Over in the Senate, the Maine Senate race between Republican Bruce Polinquin and Democrat Phil Bartlett continues to be razor tight. Republican Susan Collins retired this cycle and the fight to replace her was a momentous one. “

Julia: “On the other hand, Jeanne Shaheen is winning re-election after a very close 2014, and is doing surprisingly well against GOP State House Speaker Shawn Jasper. We’re now projecting Shaheen wins New Hampshire’s United States Senate race. And of course Dick Durbin wins another term as Illinois’ senior United States Senator.

NORTH CAROLINA - 31% of precincts reporting

Pence/Haley (Republican):  931,066 - 50.97%
Brown/Malloy (Democratic):  818,130 - 44.79%  
Others: 77,438 - 4.24%

Totals: 1,826,634 - 6.18%

GEORGIA - 44% of precincts reporting

Pence/Haley (Republican):  924,387 - 49.95%
Brown/Malloy (Democratic):  837,443 - 45.26%
Others: 88,647 - 4.79%

Totals: 1,850,477 - 4.70%

Bill: "As of this hour, the popular vote is, with 11% of precincts nationwide reporting ..."

NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE (11% in):

Pence/Haley (Republican): 7,646,627 - 51.85%
Brown/Malloy (Democratic):  6,714,002 - 45.53%  
Others: 386,427 - 2.62%

Totals: 14,747,056 - 6.32%

[The_Doctor]

8:30 PM - ELECTION NIGHT

Bill: “We’re now projecting the state of Arkansas for the President. We’re projecting that Arkansas goes to the incumbent. And --”

Julia: “Bill, if I can just interrupt, we’re hearing word that we can now project the state of Georgia. We’re now projecting that the President has won Georgia, Georgia will remain Republican.”

Bill: “What’s the numbers?”

Julia: “With 56% of the vote, Georgia seems set to stay Republican.”

Brett: “And David Perdue seems set to return to the U.S. Senate for a second term, against Kasim Reed. A few numbers on the board - and the available numbers suggest that Perdue will clear the 50% to avoid a runoff …”

Bill: “And the electoral college stands at 98-75 Pence.”

GEORGIA - 55% of precincts reporting

Pence/Haley (Republican):   1,276,534 - 52.91% - WINNER
Brown/Malloy (Democratic):   1,027,771 - 42.60%
Others:  108,347 - 4.49%

Totals: 2,412,652 | 10.31% margin

GEORGIA - 54% of precincts reporting

David Perdue (Republican):  1,232,516 - 50.29% - WINNER  
Kasim Reed (Democratic):   1,103,902 - 45.04%
Others: 114,257 - 4.66%  

Totals: 2,450,674 | 5.25% margin

[The_Doctor]

9:00 PM - ELECTION NIGHT

Bill: “And with the 9:00 PM hour upon us, we have more results. Julia?”
   
Julia: “Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are too close to call. Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Wyoming go to the Republicans, while New York and New Mexico are Democratic. That’s our major news.”

Brett: “And we have no Senate results yet.”

Julia: “How are we looking at Governors wise? I know the Indiana, Montana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Vermont governorships are up for grabs.”

Brett: “North Carolina is going Democratic, as you know. Indiana looks like a second term for Eric Holcolmb, Republican. Vermont seems to be electing a Democrat tonight, to succeed Phil Scott, a Republican. No word on Montana, as the polls have not closed there.”

Bill: “How about the national popular vote with Pence and Brown?”

Julia: “Coming on the board. 24% of the vote in, roughly 33 million now.”

NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE (24% in):

Pence/Haley (Republican): 16,683,550 - 50.53% - 120 electoral votes
Brown/Malloy (Democratic):   15,442,204 - 46.77% - 109 electoral votes
Others: 888,783 - 2.69%

Totals: 33,014,537 | 3.76% margin

[The_Doctor]

9:30 PM EST - ELECTION NIGHT

Bill: “And we’re now going to show you some major results. North Carolina, now projected for President Pence, who has defeated Senator Brown there. Governor Roy Cooper won re-election as you know but the Presidential race was bit closer.”

Brett: “And Senator Thomas Tillis, re-elected United States Senator. We’ll show some numbers later, but the GOP victory in North Carolina has helped the Senator overcome a tough re-election bid.”

Julia: “And we have some Ohio numbers.”

Brett: “On the board, then.”

NORTH CAROLINA - 61% of precincts reporting

Pence/Haley (Republican): 1,535,001 - 50.95% - WINNER
Brown/Malloy (Democratic):   1,340,823 - 44.51%
Others: 136,655 - 4.54%

Totals: 3,012,480 | 6.45% margin

NORTH CAROLINA - 61% of precincts reporting
 
Thomas Tillis (Republican): 1,459,510 - 53.37% - WINNER
Deborah Ross (Democratic): 1,204,468 - 44.05%
Others: 70,605 - 2,58%

Totals: 2,734,583 | 9.33% Margin.

OHIO - 34% of precincts reporting

Pence/Haley (Republican): 921,032 - 48.19%
Brown/Malloy (Democratic):  941,526 - 49.26% 
Others: 48,614 - 2.54%

Totals: 1,911,172 | 1.07% margin

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Out of curiosity who are the third party candidates? I need to know if I'm rooting for Pence or not 🤔.

[The_Doctor]

Out of curiosity who are the third party candidates? I need to know if I'm rooting for Pence or not 🤔.

Eh, use your standard Gary Johnson/Jill Stein people.

[The_Doctor]

Electoral College Map as of this hour (9:45 PM EST)

Pence/Haley: 135
Brown/Malloy: 109

[The_Doctor]

Note: Last post before I finish tomorrow. I'll post an updated EC and pop vote for Pence/Haley then go to bed. Tomorrow, I'll finish this off.

ELECTION NIGHT - 10:00 PM EST

Bill: “And as the 10:00 PM hour comes up, we have a few more calls. Montana, Utah go to the Republicans. And now two major, major calls.”

Julia: “One, actually. We’re unsure on Florida, but we’re projecting Iowa for Pence/Haley and that Joni Ernst has won re-election to the U.S. Senate in Iowa.”

Brett: “And on the board…”

FLORIDA - 74% of precincts reporting

Pence/Haley (Republican): 3,805,883 - 49.46%
Brown/Malloy (Democratic):  3,670,915 - 47.71%  
Others: 218,172 - 2.84%

Totals: 7,694,970 | 1.75% Margin

IOWA - 53% of precincts reporting

Pence/Haley (Republican): 450,141 - 52.91% - WINNER
Brown/Malloy (Democratic):  376,118 - 44.21%
Others: 24,462 - 2.88%

Totals: 850,722 | 8.70% Margin

IOWA - UNITED STATES SENATOR - 53% of precincts reporting

Joni Ernst (Republican):  518,087 - 60.53% - WINNER
Patty Hogg (Democratic): 316,731 - 37.01%
Others: 21,037 - 2.46%

Totals: 855,856 | 23.53% margin

[The_Doctor]

10:15 PM EST Electoral College Map and Popular Vote

Pence/Haley (Republican): 26,415,621 - 50.17% - 150 electoral votes
Brown/Malloy (Democratic): 24,841,807 - 47.18% - 109 electoral votes
Others: 1,391,139 - 2.64%

Totals: 52,648,567 | Margin: 2.99%

[The_Doctor]

ELECTION NIGHT - 10:45 PM EST

Bill: “And now we can project the state of Florida.”

Julia: “Mike Pence will carry the state of Florida, for President. This is a major, major projection. There are simply not enough votes left in Broward, Miami, and Palm Beach to help the Democrats.”

Florida - 85% of precincts reporting

Pence/Haley (Republican): 4,545,916 - 49.72% - WINNER
Brown/Malloy (Democratic):  4,307,207 - 47.11%
Others: 289,759 - 3.17%

Totals: 9,142,882 | 2.61% Margin

Pence/Haley (Republican): 179
Brown/Malloy (Democratic): 109

[The_Doctor]

ELECTION NIGHT - 10:55 PM EST

Brett: "We're now projecting the state of Michigan for Sen. Gary Peters, who narrowly is running ahead of the Democratic ticket in the state. We're projecting that the Wolverine State will go to Senator Peters."

MICHIGAN - UNITED STATES SENATOR - 72% of precincts reporting

Candice Miller (Republican): 1,671,710 - 45.20%
Gary Peters (Democratic): 1,984,533 - 53.66% - WINNER
Others (Independent): 42,410 - 1.15%
         
Totals …   3,698,653 | Margin: 8.46%

SENATE MAP 2020

[Frodo]

So it looks like the Republicans hold on to the White House another four years...  

Could this be the year Minnesota finally votes Republican?  Along with the GOP taking the rural congressional districts in that state that voted for Trump last time? 

[The_Doctor]

ELECTION NIGHT - 10:58 PM EST

Bill: "So we have some updates from across the Midwest. We're putting them up on the board and we'll have some analysis on these numbers.

MICHIGAN - 76% of precincts reporting
         
Pence/Haley (Republican): 1,937,625 - 50.55%
Brown/Malloy (Democratic): 1,727,162 - 45.06%
Others (Independent): 168,542 - 4.40%
         
Totals …       3,833,329 | Margin: 5.49%

Minnesota - 61% of precincts reporting
         
Pence/Haley (Republican):   1,459,510 - 47.67%
Brown/Malloy (Democratic):  1,454,452 - 47.50%
Others (Independent): 148,043 - 4.83%
         
Totals …       3,062,005 | Margin: 0.17%

Wisconsin - 59% of precincts reporting      
         
Pence/Haley (Republican):   924,800 - 48.60%
Brown/Malloy (Democratic): 935,409 - 49.15%
Others (Independent): 42,797 - 2.25%
         
Totals …   1,903,006 | Margin: 0.56%

Pennsylvania - 58% of precincts reporting         
         
Pence/Haley (Republican):   2,121,114 - 49.19%
Brown/Malloy (Democratic): 2,082,287 - 48.29%
Others (Independent): 108,681 - 2.52%
         
Totals …   4,312,082 | Margin: 0.90%

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

It's interesting to see Pence holding together Trump's coalition (as I can see thus far) despite returning to relatively bland GOP orthodoxy.

[The_Doctor]

ELECTION NIGHT - 11:00 PM EST

Bill: "And we have some more projections on the board. California, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, all for the Democratic nominee. For the incumbent Republicans, Idaho, Texas, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Arizona."

Julia: "And at this hour, we're able to project the state of Virginia, going to the Democratic nominee, Senator Brown."

Brett: "And the Colorado Senate seat goes to Jared Polis, Democratic nominee, who unseats Cory Gardner in a major upset, even as the Presidential race in Colorado remains too close too call."

Julia: "And the electoral scoreboard is 227 for the President, 187 for the Senator."

VIRGINIA - 89% of precincts reporting

Pence/Haley (Republican): 1,706,586 - 45.93%
Brown/Malloy (Democratic): 1,882,317 - 50.66% - WINNER
Others (Independent): 127,046 - 3.42%
         
Totals …   3,715,949 | Margin: 4.73%

ARIZONA - 77% of precincts reporting         
         
Pence/Haley (Republican): 1,153,390 - 51.21% - WINNER
Brown/Malloy (Democratic): 1,011,653 - 44.92%
Others (Independent):    87,186    3.87%
         
Totals …       2,252,230 | Margin: 6.29%

COLORADO - United States Senate - 64% of precincts reporting

Cory Gardner (Republican): 861,394 - 47.84%
Jared Polis   (Democratic): 922,402 - 51.23% - WINNER
Others (Independent): 16,650 - 0.92%
         
Totals …       1,800,446 | Margin: 3.39%

NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE (56% in):

Pence/Haley   (Republican): 41,708,875 - 50.01% - 238 electoral votes
Brown/Malloy   (Democratic): 39,612,611 - 47.49% - 200 electoral votes
Others   (Independent):   2,086,708 - 2.50%
         
Totals …   83,408,194 | Margin: 2.51%

ELECTORAL MAP

[The_Doctor]

ELECTION NIGHT - 11:15 PM EST

Brett: "And with further returns, here is our Senate map as of this hour."

With Maine outstanding, we are projecting as of this hour that the Senate GOP will have a minimum of 54 seats in the next United States Congress. We are projecting the Senate GOP will be the majority party at this hour, with a Democratic pickup in Colorado and Maine remaining too close to call.

Bill: "The House GOP is at 204 seats, with the House Democrats at 161 seats. We'll have more updates, but the GOP looks favorably in the U.S. House."

[The_Doctor]

ELECTION NIGHT -- 11:25 PM EST

Julia: "With Congress remaining in GOP hands and Pence/Haley holding a steady lead all night long, what do we attribute to the GOP strength? Just a year ago, it looked like the Democrats would be poised to take it all, with the resignation of former President Trump. Why is the Trump coalition holding together?"

Bill: "A lot of this is because of polarization and that we're estimating that about 60% of whites voted Republican, along with 34% of Latinos and 38% of Asians. That in itself is allowing Pence to stay afloat at this hour. Why they're voting Republican - I mean, Latinos and Asians, is of interest to everyone at this hour."

Brett: "I think a lot of it is purely because of the incumbency factor and the stable economy. A lot of voters were upset in 2016 and Pence has emerged as a stabilizing leader who can hold together the Trump voters and as a result, a lot of people are satisfied with that. Trump was the loose cannon; Pence is very much the stability minded Republican."

Julia: "A lot of Democrats simply assumed that nominating a Bernie Democrat would bring back the Midwestern white vote home. And that's increasingly not the case, which suggests that there is clear movement towards the GOP among these whites in the Midwest, at least for President, at least in a certain set up. We saw two years ago that the Democrats won a lot of governorships in the Midwest, but that increasingly looks like that these voters were picking and choosing..."

Bill: "And tonight, they appear to be choosing the President. They want stability, they voted pocketbook issues, and the economy's doing alright. The GOP has proved that it's not the radical bogeyman that the Democrats have painted it to be, so they're winning a lot of votes tonight on that basis."

Brett: "A lot of the assumptions about the minority vote is that they would be forever Democratic, unto the thousand year reign. And what we're finding is that no, minority voters are highly sophisticated voters who are able to cast a vote based on their pocketbook, much like the rest of the electorate. The new America might not just be a racially polarized America but a true heterogenous pool of voters who vote on the same old priorities voters in the past have done; whether the incumbent party is doing a good job, whether their lives are better or not."

Julia: "54% of voters are saying their lives have been better the last four years, and Mike Pence is very much the beneficiary of that sentiment. He's very much a stable figure so ..."

Bill: "And we have more calls coming up."