Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

This will be fun. I was late last night working on an outline for a possible Trump timeline on AH.com but I'm too busy with school and another project to get into it at this moment. I made the map last night since the EVC wasn't updated yet, figured I'd share it since I won't be using it and save you the trouble.

2016

Businessman Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Governor Mike Pence (R-IN): 306 Electoral Votes, 47.17% of the popular vote.
Former Secretary of State Hilllary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA): 232 Electoral Votes, 47.54% of the popular vote.
Former Governor Gary Johnson (L-NM)/Former Governor Bill Weld (L-MA): 3.24% of the popular vote.
Mrs. Jill Stein (G-MA)/Mr. Ajamu Baraka (G-DC): 0.97% of the popular vote.
Mr. Evan McMullin (I-UT)/Mrs. Mindy Finn (I-TX): 0.38% of the popular vote.
Mr. Darrell Castle (C-TN)/Mr. Scott Bradley (C-UT): 0.14% of the popular vote.
Others (Reform, Socialism & Liberation, Legal Marijuana Now, Prohibition): 0.56% of the popular vote.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I see that Trump apparently does not remain in office. Will be interesting to see as to why.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I see that Trump apparently does not remain in office. Will be interesting to see as to why.

Check it out again - it's November 2024. Not 2020. But we'll discuss Trump, in great detail. He's Part I of this story, and it's quite a story (that I think will actually play out in real life).

Said "prevailed against the incumbent office holder" so I assumed that.

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I'm surprised the fields so small.

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The opioid epidemic has hit my family like millions of others, so I'm excited to see what Trump/Pence does to stop it. Rubio is apparently pretending to be a Senator again and is making waves.

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Out of curiosity who are the third party candidates? I need to know if I'm rooting for Pence or not 🤔.

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It's interesting to see Pence holding together Trump's coalition (as I can see thus far) despite returning to relatively bland GOP orthodoxy.

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I guess I'd be down with that. Yay?

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You ought to try your hand at another project here! This was among the best timelines we've ever had. I didn't always one hundred percent agree with your predictions, but more or less this is an incredibly well written and well thought out timeline.

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What exactly happens to the deficit/debt in the Cordray era? Both in terms of raw numbers/shares of GDP and as political issues

Hard to gauge but they need to grow the economy considerably and to reduce the debt to GDP ratio. Both for the country's and average Americans' bottom line. That's the key. Cordray will need to stimulate a major economic boom in the 2020s to erase the crisis.

What if he fails.....just in time for 2032!

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What happened to Trump post Presidency? I can't imagine he goes quietly. How would he be remembered among the base?

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It's on the To Do List, as I'm working through Rick Perlstein's trilogy of the conservative movement between 1964 and 1980. (Thanks to Ted Bessell). Foundation is next.

Wait, wait, wait, you haven't read the Invisible Bridge and Nixonland and still know all of this?!?

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You have any other timelines in the pipeline? Your depth of historical knowledge is conducive to other projects. I'd love to see more TD timelines in the future!

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YAS GOVERNOR RILEY!

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I don't see Palm Beach County going Republican.

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I don't see Palm Beach County going Republican.

Wealthy, white, suburban. I might actually upgrade it to Safe R, now that you've reminded me of Palm Beach's existence.

Wealthy, white, and staunchly Democrat. I'm from there. The Republican base just isn't strong in PBC. In fact under these circumstances it might be even more Democratic.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I want to preface this post by again praising your excellent work. Your analysis is based in facts and logic, not wish fullfillment, which has made this timeline particularly interesting. I agree with a vast majority of what you have said, but I think you are making the mistake of underestimating Trump's tact or mistaking it for mental instability.

I highly recommend you check out "The 48 Laws of Power" if you haven't done so. I read it in 2013 and I suspect Trump has done so at some point as well. He frequently employs a number of these rules, particularly Law 21: play a sucker to catch a sucker. Mainly in terms of his rhetoric on Twitter and at his rallies.

I'm not arguing that Trump will win reelection (though I confess the odds are more likely than his opposition cares to admit - especially if Russiagate continues to dominate the discussion rather than focusing on bread and butter issues), but I have to disagree with you on that last post. I think Trump will be around long after Spring 2018. I'll give my reasons below:

First of all, the circumstances surrounding the alleged dossier are very murky, and that is putting it gently. There remains no evidence to support it's contents actual existence (ie, the "piss tape"), which until now lends some credence to the theory that it was used to obtain a FISA to spy on Trump's campaign. The fact that it was funded by a Clinton connected lawyer and an anti-Trump conservative paper does not help in legitimizing the dossier.

There are enough questions surrounding the FBI's role in investigating both Clinton and Trump (the lack of an interview before Clinton's exoneration, allegations that Mueller was involved in a possible coverup of Uranium One, etc) that support for a second special prosecutor is growing. Here in FL alone, Congressmen Matt Gaetz and Ron DeSantis have been among the more vocal voices in favor of appointing a second prosecutor, which could both compromise Mueller's position by exposing his possible impartiality. This can happen twofold; number one, his role in Uranium One, in which he allegedly allowed Clinton off the hook. Or two, people like Andrew McCabe let slip before Congress that they were indeed "concerned" (to use a diplomatic term) about Trump's fitness for office. We've seen this play out on a small scale level recently. A second special prosecutor - ostensibly directed at Clinton but in reality going after Mueller - could bring this Russia probe to a very disappointing close by this spring.

Of course there are hurdles in the way. Trump might have to find a way to get rid of Sessions, and firing him isn't an option at present. I have a feeling that if/when Tillerson departs, they'll move Sessions to the State Department as a figurehead William Rogers-lite figure while Haley plays the role of Kissinger 2.0. That opens the top position at the Justice Department, which Trump will probably try and fill with an outsider, probably a relatively unknown but well tested New York lawyer. Rachel Brand, the Solicitor General, is also an option. But Trump always manages to find a way to slip by.

This is Law 3 of the 48 Laws of Power: operate in the cloak of darkness. Trump, in reshuffling his cabinet, will do whatever it takes to distract. Distraction is his modus operandi. He sends out tweets out of the blue, such as the one we saw this morning about Pakistan, that stir minor controversies across the globe. Or he moves the US Embassy to Jerusalem at random. Or he calls Collin Kaepernick "a son of a bitch." The attack dog media freaks out, CNN has multiple panels consisting of Ana Navaro shouting hysterically, and all the while, Trump laughs all the way to the bank. My younger brother, who is totally apolitical, thinks that Trump is a combination of a madman and troll. It is worth noting that people like my brother also do not vote. In other words, Trump washes away the chaff but never the crop.

Personally, I think Trump won't even need to fire Mueller. I think he'll force his hand and be exonerated. Flynn can be won back over with the promise of a pardon (all they have on him is lying to the FBI - the most notable person I can think of guilty of the same offense is Martha Stewart), while the other small fry players like Papadawhatever, Carter Page, and so on will likely take the fall. After all, a lot of them did have meetings with Russians.

Another factor to consider, guilty or not guilty, is the fact that Trump does not leave a paper trail. He is computer illiterate. He even dictates his tweets. Whatever investigators may find in the Trump campaign's electronic communications, it is likely that there will be little to work with in regards of tying Trump to the matter. At the worst, they might be able to bag Kushner. I actually have this harebrained theory that Kushner might have been at the center of any "collusion" in order to obtain loans from Russian banks, steering unwitting dopes like Carter Page into Putin's orbit as a return. We do know that he has worked to establish back channels with Russian officials, which is actually business as usual for the most part. Yet that still doesn't explain how Kushner is so deeply connected to Russians. So it is a possibility.

Now, I'm not going to predict the long term future because I'm not nearly as intelligent as you are nor have all of my prior predictions been exactly true. It is very possible that if, say, Trump were to be reelected in 2020 that he'd be forced from office due to a yet unknown scandal over his business dealings in NYC. If such revelations surfaced (and I'm not saying they will or will not), it is very possible that he could be forced to resign in 2021/2022. I definitely agree that McConnell and Ryan don't feel any loyalty to the President - they might even fear him. But I don't think Russiagate in particular makes Trump's position precarious enough to collapse his administration. Not this time around, at least.

Anywho, this timeline is immaculate. Regardless if I'm wrong or right about this, it has been an entertaining and informative (and largely accurate) read. Keep up the great work! Sorry for the rambling, relatively off topic post. I'd love to hear your thoughts further, if you have the time and energy of course!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Feel free to leave questions or topics you want me to address, if anything. 

What are your thoughts on the Cleveland Steamer?

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God I hope you're wrong, but you're probably not at this point

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Again, as I've said, the question is: "What is the deal cut?" I think that at some point, with the myriad array of investigations into Trump, the big question is how that all goes away and Trump is allowed to become a former president without having to be hounded. As long as he is president, that will never stop (mostly because of his own stupidity). I fully expect McConnell, Pelosi, and Pence to negotiate this one. Remember, the Governor of New York is a Democrat, and so Pelosi has to be involved actively to decide how Trump leaves. Trump needs not only a federal pardon but also the New York Democrats to stand down on investigating him. Ergo, Pelosi's role. I think this deal is cut between the House impeachment and the Senate trial.

If there is a deal for Trump to avoid prosecution, congressional Democrats should push for a hard bargain in which Donald Trump and his family self-exile to any country of their choosing (preferably for them, one that doesn't have an extradition treaty with the United States), and give up their US passports and citizenship upon arrival.    

West Palm Beach and Mar-A-Lago are not foreign countries. None of that is going to happen. Trump will retire, loudly of course, to Mar-A-Lago and will spend his final days golfing and hosting supporters. It'll become the Graceland of the MAGA movement.

This is America, not some Latin American dump. We don't "exile" our leaders. Hell, Richard Nixon was praised as a statesman when he died and people lined up for miles to see his casket.

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Keep in mind, he’s still the POTUS. That happened. Jailing Trump isn’t going to change the fact that he knows every national security secret, all his predecessors dirty laundry, and so forth. He’s got the keys to the file cabinet. If Trump were exiled (lmao really Frodo) it locked up he’d sing like a bird, and I’d listen to everything he said. So will the rest of us who voted for him. He’s a bigger risk behind bars then he is on Palm Beach Islamd.

I suspect that Mar-A-Lago will end up being opened to the public on occasion for everyday admirers like yours truly to be received by him. It’s an ego thing. He’ll be like one of those decrepit old actresses from the Golden Age of Hollywood who invite the public into their dusty mansions to meet them and listen to stories. Ayn Rand did that too after she alienated most of her cult members before she died. Lefties will sneer and call it sad, but it’ll be pretty cool for the actual people. He has a habit of stopping his motorcade to greet supporters when he comes into town (I’m in Boynton, a suburb of WPB) and I know people who have literally been picked up in Secret Service vans to see him just because he saw their group a mile up A1A from Mar-A-Lago. It’s well documented, just google “Trump surprises supporters at Mar-A-Lago.” I’ve seen like three WPTV stories like this.

In the meantime, he has his business endeavors, buxom blondes, and golf outings to keep him busy. He’ll still keynote the RNC in 2024, he’ll still tweet his every inane thought, and will pump out ghost written books on the deep state conspiracy that he exposed or whatever.

Trump is always going to win one way or another. Even if he doesn’t hold on to office, he’s gonna live out his days truly believing he won in the end. And he’ll be right.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Keep in mind, he’s still the POTUS. That happened. Jailing Trump isn’t going to change the fact that he knows every national security secret, all his predecessors dirty laundry, and so forth. He’s got the keys to the file cabinet. If Trump were exiled (lmao really Frodo) it locked up he’d sing like a bird, and I’d listen to everything he said. So will the rest of us who voted for him. He’s a bigger risk behind bars then he is on Palm Beach Islamd.

I suspect that Mar-A-Lago will end up being opened to the public on occasion for everyday admirers like yours truly to be received by him. It’s an ego thing. He’ll be like one of those decrepit old actresses from the Golden Age of Hollywood who invite the public into their dusty mansions to meet them and listen to stories. Ayn Rand did that too after she alienated most of her cult members before she died. Lefties will sneer and call it sad, but it’ll be pretty cool for the actual people. He has a habit of stopping his motorcade to greet supporters when he comes into town (I’m in Boynton, a suburb of WPB) and I know people who have literally been picked up in Secret Service vans to see him just because he saw their group a mile up A1A from Mar-A-Lago. It’s well documented, just google “Trump surprises supporters at Mar-A-Lago.” I’ve seen like three WPTV stories like this.

In the meantime, he has his business endeavors, buxom blondes, and golf outings to keep him busy. He’ll still keynote the RNC in 2024, he’ll still tweet his every inane thought, and will pump out ghost written books on the deep state conspiracy that he exposed or whatever.

Trump is always going to win one way or another. Even if he doesn’t hold on to office, he’s gonna live out his days truly believing he won in the end. And he’ll be right.

I don't care whether or not he believes he won in the end, but to actually say that it's right that he'll have won in the end is laughable, simply by virtue of the humiliation that is being forced out of office.

That’s not the point I was making, though. My point is that he’s going to be living freely and more luxuriously than all of his critics. He’s gonna get the last laugh.

Consider Nixon. By August 9th, 1974, his support had totally crumbled. He made an impressive comeback considering this. Trump will still have a third of the country supporting him at the bitter end. It’ll be harder to craft the Nixon narrative around him because of him. A more apt analogy is Thatcher.

Actually when Trump dies we’ll probably see a very similar reaction to when Thatcher died now that I think about it.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

One can dream.... 


By the way, what does BTM stand for? 

I think first, Trump is now firmly on the path to impeachment/resignation. I think the Bill Taylor testimony was highly detailed and probably has given enough evidence to nail the President on a quid pro quo on the Ukraine matter. The irony, Trump was probably on track to a second term defying BTM before this.

God I hope you're wrong, but you're probably not at this point

I hope he is wrong about realignment but not about Trump being impeached . The best way for that to happen in my opinion is for the Democrats to narrowly win in 2020 while they fail to take the senate or if they do , take it with Manchin being the deciding vote.

Then in 2024 the Republicans can come back with Haley or DeSantis

They're not events in isolation. A Trump impeachment is part of the realignment process. The underlying factors in both are the same. There's a reason the Republican Party is weakening and has been so since 2008. (It's like, the entire logical chain of BTM from 2017 to 2025).

Between Two Majorities.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I just started reading, and I can't wait to see what happens!

This may be one of the best timelines ever written, you're in for a fun read!