Did the exit polls discourage late voters?
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  Did the exit polls discourage late voters?
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Author Topic: Did the exit polls discourage late voters?  (Read 260 times)
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« on: November 10, 2016, 05:12:02 PM »

Given that Clinton supporters were more likely to believe polling than Trump voters, would many non-voters (especially the minorities in urban areas who notoriously didn't turn out) have come out to vote if they didn't think that Clinton had had it in the bag (as exit polls suggested)? Honestly, given that the earliest returns (when the exit polls might not have had as much of an effect) were good for Clinton, I buy this completely.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2016, 05:26:21 PM »

How many people are motivated enough to delve into exits to extrapolate a winner but unmotivated enough to be kept from voting because it looked like Clinton was going to win by 3%?  If anything the general feeling that Clinton was going to win due to pre-election polls might have kept some soft Clinton supporters away. Obviously a lot of Americans had a negative view of both Clinton and Trump, but in the end Clinton won that group overwhelmingly, and that was the difference. Perhaps a lot of those who didn't like either but were slightly more inclined for Clinton decided not to vote because they thought she was going to win so they didn't have to 'hold their nose' and vote.
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SirMuxALot
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« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2016, 05:55:13 PM »

This is inverted from the conventional wisdom from 1980.

Networks called the race for Reagan at about 8pm ET.  With polls still open in nearly all states in the other time zones.

There was anecdotal evidence of many voters standing in line to vote, hearing it had been called, and leaving and going home.

Some proposed that there was actually a "winner" effect, where Reagan voters felt a morale boost by the news and had a tendency to go ahead and vote anyway.  While Carter voters went home, boosting Reagan's margin in many states.

Western states saw big dropoffs in overall turnout that year.  Whether or not that tended to skew towards one candidate or the other is speculation.

Debatable, but that was the conventional wisdom from 1980.  And the main reason networks hold off on declaring a winner until west coast states polls have closed.

If Clinton experienced depressed turnout due to expectations, it would be 99.99% due to the weeks of pre-election polling and projections saying it was over.  Not exit polls.
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drwho1
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« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2016, 08:03:54 PM »

Yeah, the 99% chance of Hillary (huffpo and NYT) winning made Democrats in urban areas complacent and they stayed home. 
If Philly and Detroit knew their votes mattered, they would have voted.
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