SirMuxALot
Jr. Member
Posts: 368
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« on: November 10, 2016, 05:55:13 PM » |
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This is inverted from the conventional wisdom from 1980.
Networks called the race for Reagan at about 8pm ET. With polls still open in nearly all states in the other time zones.
There was anecdotal evidence of many voters standing in line to vote, hearing it had been called, and leaving and going home.
Some proposed that there was actually a "winner" effect, where Reagan voters felt a morale boost by the news and had a tendency to go ahead and vote anyway. While Carter voters went home, boosting Reagan's margin in many states.
Western states saw big dropoffs in overall turnout that year. Whether or not that tended to skew towards one candidate or the other is speculation.
Debatable, but that was the conventional wisdom from 1980. And the main reason networks hold off on declaring a winner until west coast states polls have closed.
If Clinton experienced depressed turnout due to expectations, it would be 99.99% due to the weeks of pre-election polling and projections saying it was over. Not exit polls.
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