2016 County Swing & Trend Maps

[Adam Griffin]

Tentatively, at least, and with a few states missing. I figure I might need to wait for the Western states. A few others are not showing up in Atlas yet.

Atlas has county swing maps available (click on "swing" on the main national page and then click on a given state). Obviously Atlas doesn't have the final counts, but after inspecting most of the states, the discrepancies are very tiny in terms of margin differences. I did a few of these by hand before I realized Atlas had them available.

Anyway, look on your works, Democrats, and despair...

Swing:



Trend:

[Bismarck]

So sad to see the Indy suburbs swinging away from the GOP. Hopefully Holcomb can revive the Mitch Daniels coalition and get us back on track. These counties still voted massively for Trump, but this is the first time the majority of the  rural counties have voted more republican than Boone, Hamilton, and Hendricks.

[libertpaulian]

So sad to see the Indy suburbs swinging away from the GOP. Hopefully Holcomb can revive the Mitch Daniels coalition and get us back on track. These counties still voted massively for Trump, but this is the first time the majority of the  rural counties have voted more republican than Boone, Hamilton, and Hendricks.

I told you Hamilton was becoming more Dem.

[Craziaskowboi]

Interesting things I noticed:


1. The entire Cleveland, Las Vegas, Providence, Hartford, Buffalo and Rochester metropolitan areas moved to the right. I imagine the entire Milwaukee metropolitan area did as well, though data from Wisconsin has not been completed on the map yet.

2. In the Philadelphia, Detroit, Baltimore, St. Louis, Kansas City and Virginia Beach/Norfolk metropolitan areas, the urban core moved to the right, while many of the suburban counties moved to the left.

3. The Dallas, Houston, Atlanta and Salt Lake City metropolitan areas all moved significantly to the left.

[Gass3268]

Interesting things I noticed:


1. The entire Cleveland, Las Vegas, Providence, Hartford, Buffalo and Rochester metropolitan areas moved to the right. I imagine the entire Milwaukee metropolitan area did as well, though data from Wisconsin has not been completed on the map yet.

2. In the Philadelphia, Detroit, Baltimore, St. Louis, Kansas City and Virginia Beach/Norfolk metropolitan areas, the urban core moved to the right, while many of the suburban counties moved to the left.

3. The Dallas, Houston, Atlanta and Salt Lake City metropolitan areas all moved significantly to the left.

Actually Milwaukee, Ozaukee, and Waukesha counties all swung towards the Democrats. Trump did not get the margins they usually get in the Milwaukee suburbs. This is the main reason why the state was so close, even though the county map looks like Walker's 2014 win.

[Craziaskowboi]

Interesting things I noticed:


1. The entire Cleveland, Las Vegas, Providence, Hartford, Buffalo and Rochester metropolitan areas moved to the right. I imagine the entire Milwaukee metropolitan area did as well, though data from Wisconsin has not been completed on the map yet.

2. In the Philadelphia, Detroit, Baltimore, St. Louis, Kansas City and Virginia Beach/Norfolk metropolitan areas, the urban core moved to the right, while many of the suburban counties moved to the left.

3. The Dallas, Houston, Atlanta and Salt Lake City metropolitan areas all moved significantly to the left.

Actually Milwaukee, Ozaukee, and Waukesha counties all swung towards the Democrats. Trump did not get the margins they usually get in the Milwaukee suburbs. This is the main reason why the state was so close, even though the county map looks like Walker's 2014 win.

Noted. That means Milwaukee is part of the second group I mentioned, with Philadelphia, Detroit, etc.

[Tender Branson]

The rustbelt sent its regards !

[Adam Griffin]

Trend:

[jaichind]

I assume the trend map will change over time as Clinton's PV lead grows over time as CA comes in.

[Adam Griffin]

I assume the trend map will change over time as Clinton's PV lead grows over time as CA comes in.

Yeah, I'll update them once they're fully done counting. I'll probably go back and double-check CO, WA & OR, too, just to be sure (the trend map was completed a few days ago, but just didn't bother posting until now).

[SingingAnalyst]

Interesting things I noticed:


1. The entire Cleveland, Las Vegas, Providence, Hartford, Buffalo and Rochester metropolitan areas moved to the right. I imagine the entire Milwaukee metropolitan area did as well, though data from Wisconsin has not been completed on the map yet.

2. In the Philadelphia, Detroit, Baltimore, St. Louis, Kansas City and Virginia Beach/Norfolk metropolitan areas, the urban core moved to the right, while many of the suburban counties moved to the left.

3. The Dallas, Houston, Atlanta and Salt Lake City metropolitan areas all moved significantly to the left.

Actually Milwaukee, Ozaukee, and Waukesha counties all swung towards the Democrats. Trump did not get the margins they usually get in the Milwaukee suburbs. This is the main reason why the state was so close, even though the county map looks like Walker's 2014 win.

Noted. That means Milwaukee is part of the second group I mentioned, with Philadelphia, Detroit, etc.

In Detroit, the working class areas moved sharply right (even Detroit moved a tiny bit right), while wealthy, ancestrally GOP suburbs moved left, in some cases giving Clinton a record or near-record percentage for a Dem.

[jaichind]

It seems the Trump swing/trend map looks like a force field around Saint Lawrence River and Great Lakes.  The closer you are to that set body of water the more likely you are to swing/trend Trump.

Kind of makes sense as that region was the heart of industrial America in the late 1800s and into the early mid 1900s and since the 1950s has been in economic decline. 

[ElectionsGuy]

Interesting things I noticed:


1. The entire Cleveland, Las Vegas, Providence, Hartford, Buffalo and Rochester metropolitan areas moved to the right. I imagine the entire Milwaukee metropolitan area did as well, though data from Wisconsin has not been completed on the map yet.

2. In the Philadelphia, Detroit, Baltimore, St. Louis, Kansas City and Virginia Beach/Norfolk metropolitan areas, the urban core moved to the right, while many of the suburban counties moved to the left.

3. The Dallas, Houston, Atlanta and Salt Lake City metropolitan areas all moved significantly to the left.

Actually Milwaukee, Ozaukee, and Waukesha counties all swung towards the Democrats. Trump did not get the margins they usually get in the Milwaukee suburbs. This is the main reason why the state was so close, even though the county map looks like Walker's 2014 win.

Noted. That means Milwaukee is part of the second group I mentioned, with Philadelphia, Detroit, etc.

Milwaukee County as a whole moved slightly to the left, but I definitely would think that's because many wealthy suburbs like Wauwatosa, Whitefish Bay, and co. swung hard toward Clinton, not because of any change in the city of Milwaukee.

[BaldEagle1991]

I think its safe to say blame the Rust Belt, not Florida.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't suppose anyone's made a county map of Obama 2012 vs. Clinton 2016 and Romney 2012 vs. Trump 2016 (in %age terms rather than raw votes)?  Either would be sort of like a swing map, but accounting for the fact that the 3rd parties got a larger share of the votes this time.