Oregon 2016 GE Pres Results

[NOVA Green]

Interesting....I always knew Ashland was liberal, but I'm surprised it is that overwhelmingly Democratic, especially being in an otherwise very Republican part of the state. As you say, it would seem to be the most liberal city in Oregon, even moreso than Portland.

What do you mean by "major data issue" for the 2008 numbers?

1.) So regarding Ashland being the most Democratic City in Oregon....

1992:

A.) Ashland          (62D- 22 R- 17 Perot)
B.) Warm Springs (60D- 19R- 21 Perot)  Not a city, but rather much of the Warm Springs Reservation
C.) Portland (59 D- 22 R- 18 Perot)
D.) Eugene (58 D- 24 R- 18 Perot)
E.) Corvallis (53 D- 28 R- 19 Perot)
F.) Cannon Beach (51 D- 28 R- 21 Perot)
G.) Astoria (50 D- 27 R- 23 Perot)

2008:

A.) Ashland (84 D- 14 R)
B.) Portland (81D- 16 R)
C.) Warm Springs (74D- 12 R)
D.) Corvallis (72 D- 25 R)
E.) Eugene (72 D- 25 R)
F.) Hood River (72D- 26 R)
G.) Cannon Beach (71D- 28 R)

2012:      Ok--- although I have access to precinct level results, I haven't completed all counties

A.) Warm Springs (86D- 12 R)
B.) Ashland          (81D- 14 R)
C.) Portland         (79 D- 16 R)
D.) Corvallis         (69D- 25 R)
E.) Eugene          (69D- 26 R)
F.) Hood River      (69D- 26 R)

2016:

A.) Portland         (78D- 13 R)
B.) Ashland          (77D- 12 R)
C.) Corvallis          (69D- 18 R)
D.) Hood River      (69D- 22 R)
E.) Warm Springs  (68D- 12 R)
F.) Eugene            (66D- 23 R)

So in order of ranking, Clinton received 77.88% of the Democratic vote in Portland in '16 versus only a  piddling 77.34% in Ashland in '16..... Now if we look at total margins, Clinton did win Ashland by 65.88% versus Portland by a mere 65.09%....    So Portland is definitely now a contender....

Now the Warms Spring drop-off from a top contender between '12 and '16 surprised me a bit, along with seeing Hood River rapidly climbing up towards the top of the Oregon municipal leader board....

2.) Now, regarding the "major data issue" with the '08 Jackson County numbers, initially it looked like a discrepancy between county level precinct data versus Dave's database. After review, it appears that the error was actually on an open-source database that I initially pulled the '08 numbers from....

I'll go back and edit my OP with a strikethrough and correction---- should have known better than to think I identified an error in Dave's database, and will happily munch down on humble pie...

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #19- Jackson County--- Part III: Small City JackCo

Small towns in Jackson County account for a significant % of County votes.... (24.6% in '16).

These include a mixture of a heavily Democratic town, several Democratic leaning towns, some heavily Republican towns, and some historic blue-collar mill towns....

If we amalgamate the small town vote we see the following from '08 to '16....

2008: 23.2k Votes (43D- 55 R)   +2.6k R Vote Margins
2012: 23.0k Votes (41D- 56 R)   +3.5k R Vote Margins
2016: 26.8k Votes (35D- 56 R)    +5.7k R Vote Margins

So, although we don't see overall a significant increase in Republican % numbers versus '08/'12, we do observe a major drop in Democratic % numbers, combined with a significant increase in total voters, that add +3.1k R vote margins between '08 and '16, and +2.1k R vote margins between '12 & '16....

So where did this change occur and does it add further data points when looking at the Democratic/Republican coalitions between the Obama era and the Clinton/Trump elections?

This is a tale in three parts---- 1.) Democratic '16 towns; 2.) Traditionally Republican towns; 3.) Smaller historic Mill towns....

1.) Democratic '16 Towns (Talent, Phoenix, and Jacksonville)

A.) Talent---- (Pop 6.1k)--- 88% White, 4% Latino---- MHI $ 34.8k/Yr

Located a few miles NW of Ashland, although relatively close to Medford as well, has increasingly become a bedroom community of Ashland, where both students and those that work in the city either can't afford to live in Ashland, or chose to trade-off a cheaper cost of living in what has become one of the most expensive cities in Oregon. (39% have higher than an HS degree and 28% Bachelors or Higher of the pop 25+ yrs....

1992: (43D- 34R- 23 Perot)    +9 D
2008: 2.8k Votes (65D- 34R)    +31 D
2012: 2.7k Votes (65D- 31R)    +34 D
2016: 3.2k Votes (62D- 27R)     +35 D

B.) Phoenix--- (4.6k Pop)--- (80% White, 13% Latino)---- MHI--- $37.6k MHI

Located a few miles SE of Medford is actually a town that has one of the highest % of the population living in poverty, basically as a result of having the 2nd highest number of the population in the county living off of their retirement incomes (Social Security), combined with an extremely high number of single parent income generating households within the County.

Major occupations include Sales & Administration with Material Moving & Production accounting for a significantly larger than average share of the workforce....

Health Care and Manufacturing are the largest industries.

28% of the adults +25 have more than an HS diploma, and 16% have a Bachelors or higher....

1992: (36D- 39R- 25 Perot)
2008: 2.3k Votes (52D- 45 R)    +7 D
2012: 2.2k Votes (53D- 44R)     +9 D
2016: 2.4k Votes (48D- 43R)     +5 D

C.) Jacksonville--- (Pop 2.8k)---- (93% White)---- MHI $40.7k/Yr

An historic gold mining town a few miles NW of Ashland (Worth checking out if anyone on the Forum is in the area) is the type of small town that is extremely attractive to older professionals and not just those involved in tourist related services in the small shops lining the historical Western district off of "Main Street"....

Main occupations are in Sales/Managment/Entertainment, with a disproportionate level in science, entertainment, and Health Care....

51.4% of the population over 25 has a post HS degree, and 45% Bachelors or higher....

1992: (35D- 40R- 25 Perot)
2008: 1.9k Votes (48D-50R)   +2 R
2012: 1.9k Votes (45D- 53R)  +8 R
2016: 2.1k Votes (47D- 45R)  +2 D

2.) Traditional Republican Towns (Central Point & Eagle Point)

A.) Central Point (Pop 17.3k)--- (86% White, 9% Latino)--- $47.4k MHI

Increasingly a bedroom community a few miles down the highway from Medford.... Back in the late '70s when my wife lived down here, it was a community that was considered predominately rural in nature, where the average property had between 3-7 acres, and horses were a common site on larger properties, and chickens on smaller lots....

These days are long gone....

The major occupations are now in administrative, health care, & transportation.

The largest industries are Health Care (20%), Retail (15%), Transportation (7%), Government (7%).

Only 24.7% has an education higher than an HS Degree, and 18% a Bachelors or Higher.

It is also home to the largest LDS Temple between Portland and San Francisco, that provides services and support to an entire region, in one of the highest LDS counties in Western Oregon (Jackson County 4%+ Mormon).

1992: (33D- 43R- 25 Perot)    The 13th most Republican City in Oregon in '92
2008: 7.7k Votes (38D-61R)   +23 R
2012: 7.6k Votes (34D-63R)   +29 R
2016: 8.7k Votes (28D-63R)   +35 R

B.) Eagle Point--- (Pop 8.5k)---- 90% White, 3% Latino--- MHI $46.0k/Yr

Located a bit North of Medford, is actually a bit older and upper middle-class than the MHI numbers suggest, although the data is a bit mixed....

There is a relatively new Golf Course and some luxury retirement areas near here, and although if we look at the occupational and industrial sectors it distorts the data since it appears to be a bit more "pink" and "blue" collar than is the case....

Regardless:

1992: (28* D- 45 R- 28 Perot)     The 7th most Republican city/town in Oregon
2008: 3.6k Voters (35D- 63 R)    +28 R
2012: 3.6k Voters (31D- 67 R)    +36 R
2016: 4.4k Voters (23D- 69 R)    +46 R

So regardless of how one chooses to slice and dice, it definitely appears that this city has been trending R, since even Pre-Obama days, and the numbers keep stacking up.

3.) Historic Smaller Mill Towns--- White City, Rogue River, & Gold Hill

In theory the population of these towns don't add up to a ton of voters, but the impact of timber mills closing impacts more than just the towns in which they are located, but entire surrounding communities, where people commute from rural areas outside of town, and small businesses in town have seen first hand the impact of mill closures on their communities.....

A.) White City---- (Pop 8.0k)---- (74% White, 28% Latino)--- MHI $30.8k/Yr

Seven different plants have closed down or laid off employees between '90 and 2010, with some (600) direct jobs gone....  I have seen estimates of a 14% unemployment rate, although I am slightly skeptical of how current these numbers are. Regardless the VA Hospital in the City, that is also a major employer doesn't necessarily have the best overlapping skills for many of the skilled workers that have lost their jobs in the mills.... Even though there is a Vet preference on hiring, in a region where there a large number of military veterans, it's tough to get a job at the VA regional facility in White City, and I have been spending a ton of time looking at the job boards in recent months...

1992: (36* D- 36 R- 29 Perot)      Perot's 45th best community in Oregon
2008: 2.0k Votes (40D- 58 R)   +18R
2012: 2.1k Votes (39D- 56 R)   +17R
2016: 2.7k Votes (30D- 60R)     +30R

Now bonus precinct, since Oregon doesn't have any military base precincts....

VA Dorm----

2008: 66 Votes (55D-44 R) +11 D
2012: 28 Votes (79D- 21R)  +58 D
2016: 41 Votes (27D- 68R)   +41 R

Make of that what you will, and extremely small sample size, but still interesting especially considering Trump's emphasis on Veteran Care issues, in a region of the state with a larger than national average Vet population....

B.) Rogue River----

1992: (34D- 43R- 23 Perot)             14th most Republican City/Town in Oregon
2008: 1.0k Voters (40D-57R)    +17 R
2012: 0.9k Voters (38D-58R)    +20R
2016: 1.1k Voters (29D-61R)     +32 R

C.) Gold Hill

1992: (42D- 26 R- 32 Perot)        50th most Democratic city/town in OR, 19th most Perot town in OR
2008: 0.6k Voters (46D-53 R)    +7 R
2012: 0.5k Voters (42D-54 R)    +12 R
2016: 0.6k Voters (30D-62 R)    +32 R

Hmmmm..... so a +14D Clinton '92 becomes a +32 Trump '16? WTF is going on here?

Next stop rural Jackson County....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #19- Jackson County--- Part IV: Rural JackCo

So... for anyone that hasn't been following, my standard caveat and definitions apply:

Rural areas are defined as unincorporated areas outside of recognized city boundaries, as per the Oregon Land Use planning laws/policies that go back to our late and great Governor Tom McCall (R-OR 1966-1974)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_McCall

Although I have made a few exceptions in the cases of Metro-PDX to try to identify and code unincorporated areas within urban growth boundaries, and whenever possible tried to identify areas that fall outside of urban-growth boundaries where there is an overlap of voters/population tied directly to the cities within the county....

Back on topic....

Even in a Republican County, Democrats were able to perform relatively well even in recent years, even in rural areas...

2008: 31.3k Votes--- (42D-56 R)     +14 R   31.4% of County Vote    +4.4k (R) Vote Margin
2012: 30.1k Votes--- (39D-57R)      +18R    31.0% of County Vote    +5.6k (R) Vote Margin
2016: 32.6k Votes--- (33D-58R)      +25R    29.8% of County Vote    +8.1k (R) Vote Margin

Elections are won and lost on the margins, and a -9% decrease in Democratic percentages and a +2% increase in Republican % added a net +4k Republican vote margin in Jackson County....

So interestingly enough, it doesn't appear that there was a "rural surge" in Jackson County towards Trump, and in fact the Republican improvement between '08 and '16 appears minuscule on paper....

Where to start?

1.) Democratic Rural Precincts (Obama '08 precincts)....

25% of rural precinct votes were cast in '08 Obama precincts....

Democratic rural strongholds are precincts # 18 (Rural Ashland) , # 21 (Pinehurst-SE County), #80 (Talent Rural)....

Additionally, we have a few marginally Democratic precincts # 87 (Phoenix Rural) and # 115 (Applegate) in SW County on the Foothills of the Kalmiopsis Wilderness Area...

So in the case of the first three rural Dem Precincts, we see the Greens capturing slightly over 6% of the vote.... with roughly 3% Write-Ins (Bernie?) and 3.5% Libertarian....

The Republican share of the vote has been steadily collapsing in both Rural Ashland and Talent since '08....

Applegate and Phoenix Rural both narrowly flipped Republican in '12, with a narrow Republican gain in both between '08 and '16, with the former having a more dramatic swing than the latter, which is a much larger precinct with 2.8k Voters....

So overall in the Obama '08 Rural precincts we see a net +1.4D Vote margin go to a net 1.1k D vote margin, combined with the Democratic share of the vote only increasing 101% from '08 (Enthusiasm Gap?)

2.) Republican Rural Precincts---

A.) Shady Cove--- Rural--- +134% Vote Increase '08-'16

2008:  1.4k Voters (33D- 62R)    +29 R      +450 R Vote Margins
2012: 1.7k Voters  (30D-66R)     +36 R      +610 R Vote Margins
2016: 1.9k Voters  (22D-71R)      +49 R     +920 R Vote Margins

Long known as a stronghold of the "survivalist" movement within the region, it is perhaps not surprising to see some of the most dramatic swings within the county.... Still, regardless of the oddballs out in the woods, Bill Clinton did narrowly beat Bush Sr in '92 with 37% of the vote, and Perot bagging 33% within the city was certainly interesting in and of itself....

B.) Eagle Point--- Rural--- (83% of voter turnout '08 to '16)

Heavily Republican Precinct (1.9k Voters '08):

2008: (30D-69R)   +39 R    +720 R Vote Margin
2012: (26D-71R)    +45R    +670 R Vote Margin
2016: (21D-72R)    +51R    +800 R Vote Margin

IDK why the Rep turnout numbers collapsed, but suspect perhaps the large LDS population in the community might have not been particularly enthused at voting in '16....

C.) Jacksonville Rural (Precincts & 73&74)--- 2.6k Voters 2016

2008: (37D-61R)    +24 R    +620R Vote Margin
2012: (35D-62R)    +27R     +700R Vote Margin
2016: (33D-58R)     +25R     +670R Vote Margin

Not quite sure exactly what happened here, but I suspect that some of the wealthy socially Liberal/Fiscally Conservative California transplants living out in the hills with some acreage weren't too fond of the Trump train, although they weren't so crazy about Clinton as the Obama v.02 either...

D. Ruch---- SW Rural JacksCo (Pct #77)--- 2.6k Voters 2008

2008: (45D-52R)     +7R        +190R Vote Margin
2012: (43D-55R)     +12 R     +220R Vote Margin
2016: (38D-52R)     +16R      +330R Vote Margin   (Green 3%, Write-Ins 3%, LBT 4%)

E.) Gold Hill Rural and Rogue River Rural that between them had 4.6k votes in '08, saw a significant drop-off in Democratic support between '08 and '16 (Roughly 37% Obama in '08) to Clinton only garnering 27% in '16.... meanwhile Trump gains a 5-6% net Republican increase from McCain '08 numbers and a 3% increase in the Republican % of the vote from Romney '12, so Republican Presidential % goes to roughly 64.5% of the vote...

Between these two precinct alone, it went from a +1,031 R total vote lead in '08 to a +1,887 R total vote lead in '16.... additionally, next to Shady Cove, these two rural precincts, that are not experiencing a major population boom saw their total vote numbers increase 115% from '08 numbers....

If this is where you literally want to see hidden Trump voters coming out of the woods it is here....

Any Democrat living in a Metro area, that has never lived in small-town and rural America, needs to pay attention to these results...

I had Jackson County on my Oregon County flip-list, but like many others I underestimated the Trump impact among many rural voters that have long felt abandoned by both major political parties, and many parts of Southern Oregon are very similar to Northern Maine and parts of Wisconsin and elsewhere.... A solid populist Democrat could easily have flipped Jackson County back from a narrow Obama '08 win to a '16 win....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #20- Tillamook County--- Pop (25.3k Pop)

Although much of the attention on Atlas was focused on Columbia County, that voted Republican for President for the first time since 1928 (!!!), meanwhile Coos County flipped Republican in 2000, despite having supported McGovern in '72, flipped to Reagan in '80 & '84 and back to Clinton in '92/'96.

In many ways Tillamook County is actually likely more representative of rural parts of the Northern Oregon Coast, than places like Coos & Columbia Counties that historically have had much more of a Blue Collar Industrial Manufacturing sector.

Tillamook is still an overwhelmingly rural county, even in the "City" and small towns....

Tillamook County does not have the economic foundations of Tourism & Commercial Fishing, that the neighboring counties to the North (Clatsop) and South (Lincoln) have....

It is simply too remote to experience the Tourist industry from those that live in the cities of the Willamette Valley, there are no major commercial fishing industries (Although it is an awesome spot for Sports Fishing for anyone interested).....

The Timber Industry used to be a major player, but since a massive series of fires destroyed most of the Old-Growth timber back in the late '30s/'40s (One of the latter incidents suspected as originating from the "Fire Balloons" that Japan would occasionally fire-off during WWII), the Timber Stock of the Tillamook National Forest, made it much less active than other regions in Oregon, despite the historic giant mill community of Garibaldi.

Dairy has always been a big player out here..... anyone who buys a giant log of Tillamook Cheese is not only supporting local dairy farmers, but also the largest Private Sector employer in the County, and plus arguably the consistently best cheese in the county other than perhaps Bandon (Also located in Oregon although I might take some hits on that from my friends from Vermont and Wisconsin  ....

All being said, this has been a fairly heavily rural Democratic County since the New Deal that has flipped back and forth over the past 30 years in Presidential Elections....

Despite all of this, Tillamook was actually the 7th most Democratic County in Oregon way back in '88...

1988: (55-43 D)    +12 D
2000: (47-47* R)   +0R
2004: (48-52 R)     +5 R
2008: (53-43 D)    +10 D
2012: (50-45 D)     +5 D
2016: (43-49 R)     +6 R

Because it is such a Rural County, it is a bit more difficult to slice and dice the numbers, than many other counties in Oregon....

But, in my mind we need to call out the "large city", the "Coastal Towns", the Non-Coastal Inland areas, and those precincts that fall more squarely around the Pacific Coast Mountain Range....

Tall order, considering that much of "Coastal towns" Tillamook is actually more inland and centered around two awesome Bays that anyone who wants to fish without crossing the Bar into the Pacific Ocean can happily enjoy practically year-round fishing

1.) The largest City Tillamook (Pop 4.9k)--- 13.4% of total '16 Presidential Votes....

(84% White, 13% Latino)---- (MHI $43.7k/Yr

Home of the the Tillamook Cheese Factory, in a county heavily dependent upon the dairy industry, but additionally a significant number of decent paying manufacturing jobs, that help bring us some of the best Cheese, Ice Cream, Butter, and Sour Cream in the entire United States.... (Sure I'm a little biased, but anyone who lives in Oregon or plans to visit really should swing by the Factory for a free tour and sample all of the awesomeness that is the Tillamook brand....

Occupationally, 14.4% of the workers are employed in Production, 13% in Admin, and 11% in Food Services....  Law Enforcement, Production, Material Handling, Repair, and Food Service are represented in disproportionate numbers.

In terms of industrial sectors, 16.3% work in manufacturing, 15% in Health Care, 13% in Retail, 13% in Hospitality, 8% in Government, 7% in Construction.....

1992: (45D- 31R- 24 Perot)      +14 D
2008: (53D- 44R)                     +9 D
2012: (50D- 46R)                     +4 D
2016: (38D- 47R)                     +9 R

Hmmm.... (7% Libertarian, 5% Write-Ins (Bernie?), 3% Green)....

So although obviously the Obama popularity did not rub off on Clinton at all, although Republican numbers have been creeping up since '08, there was not a major "Trump Surge", although there were likely a small number of Obama '12/Trump '16 crossover voters, and a few more Obama '08/Romney'12/Trump '16 voters....

How to break down the rest of the county to meaningfully interpret the results? It's a bit tricky since 87% of the voters live in "rural" areas, and most of the small incorporated towns also include rural areas surrounding the towns (split-precincts). It's probably best to split off the incorp cities/surrounding rural, since they are all concentrated on the Coastal Areas/Bays.....

2.) "Coastal/Bay Inc Towns & Surrounding" (32.7% of County Votes)----

Basically includes the split "cities" and surrounding areas of Bay City, Garibaldi, Manzanita, Nehalem, Rockaway Beach & Wheeler....

These include a mixture of historically working-class communities (Garibaldi), a more artsy "alternative" town Manzanita, and a "tourist" town Rockaway Beach, where the tourist season only lasts about 3-4 months, and most local small businesses depend on patronage from local residents for their annual incomes, with the tourist money in the Summer helping to keep their business afloat....

By and large these communities are defined as being significantly older than the Statewide average, a much proportion of retirees (generally Working/Middle Class Oregonians), and also more Democratic than the County/State at large....

2008: 4.1k Total Votes (60-36 D)   +24 D    +1.0k (D) Vote Margin
2012: 3.9k Total Votes (57-38 D)   +19 D    +730 (D) Vote Margin
2016: 4.6k Total Votes (51-37 D)    +14 D   +610 (D) Vote Margin (4% Write-In, 5% LBT, 3% Green)

So here, in the most Democratic part of Lincoln County, we see a significant defection of Obama supporters towards 3rd Party voters, that apparently includes a significant number of older voters, contrary to the CW and stereotype of younger voters were responsible for much of the drop in Clinton's '16 vs Obama '12 Democratic percentages....

Let's break this down into a bit more detail, to see what happened in the most Democratic parts of Tillamook County....

A.) Manzanita---- Most Democratic town in the County

1992: (55D-25R-21 Perot)     +30D
2008: (68D-29R)                  +39 D
2012: (65D-30R)                  +35 D
2016: (62D-28R)                  +36 D

B.) Rockaway Beach

1992: (54D-22R- 24 Perot)    +32 D
2008: (58D-39R)                   +19 D
2012: (57D-39R)                   +18 D
2016: (47D-43R)                   +4 D    

So not only a 10% drop from Obama '12 margins, but a +4% increase in Republican margins....

If you look at Rockaway Beach on the map, or have the pleasure of spending a week or so there, as I did right before the '16 General Election, you will see that it is closely connected to the surrounding towns of Bay City and Garibaldi (Where there used to be one of the largest timber mills in the region)...

Anecdotal story, but me and my wife spent a few hours in one of the small corner bars on the main drag, and I had the pleasure of conversing with a older gent (+20 on me) and his younger Mexican-American buddy Jerry  in his '40s (Nicknamed after Jerry Garcia)....

After a few beers, and taking some "Bad Beats" on the Video Poker machine, we start chatting politics, once the Baseball World Series game was over, and he starts telling me about his community from an old timer perspective....

Timber Industry, he reaches into his wallet to pull out his old IWA (International Woodworkers of America) union card....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Woodworkers_of_America

He literally spat on the floor of the bar when he brought up Ronald Reagan that he perceived as destroying the American Middle-Class, and responsible for Union Busting activities not only in the Timber sector, but in other industrial sectors as well....

Not a big fan of George Sr. nor Bill Clinton, somewhat neutral on Bush Jr, but had issues with the Iraq War, and yet another Bush screwing up the American economy, neutral on Obama (Positive & Negatives), and I didn't ask about his opinions of Trump, since obviously not the best extended conversation to get into a week or so before the Election.....

C.) Garibaldi----

Lovely town located on the Northern part of the Bay, and although Timber is mostly dead and gone in terms of total employment in the region/town, it is still an historical center of once what was one of the largest mills within the entire region....

https://oregonhistoryproject.org/articles/the-timber-industry-climax/#.WIrNEBsrLIU

1992: (46D-27R-27* Perot)       +19D    Perot's 20th best city/town in Oregon
2008: (51D-45 R)                      +6 D
2012: (47*D- 47 R)                    +0 D
2016: (40D-46R)                        +6 R

Hmmm....

So we have a town where Bill Clinton captured 46% of the vote, and George Sr placed 3rd behind Ross Perot that went for Trump in '16?

D.) We can roll through a few more, but I think we're starting to see a pattern...

Bay City---

1992: (43D-25R- 31 Perot)                +18D
2008: (57D-39R)                               +18D
2012: (48D-47R)                               +1D
2016: (42D-43R)                               +1 R

Not quite sure how to explain the '12/'16 numbers.... What happened between '08/'12 that would explain that dramatic shift? It's a fairly older Working/Middle-Class retiree population, but those numbers are still odd.... If we look at '16 and 3rd Party candidates we actually see the Libertarian grab 7% of the total precinct vote!!!!

I'll pull up Rural Uninc precincts in Coastal Tillamook on my next update....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #20- Tillamook County--- Part II

So to recap, the largest City Tillamook with (13.4% of county votes) is a bit of a barometer in terms of the County at large, and swung significantly towards Trump....

Coastal Tillamook in the small towns (32.7% of C;ounty Votes) is the most Democratic part of the county, did not see a significant gain in Republican support compared to historical levels, but rather a major defection of Democratic support to 3rd Party Candidates.

Update:

Rural Coastal Tillamook (18.8% of the '16 Voters)

The second most historically Democratic part of the County....

It includes the unincorporated communities of Oceanside, Pacific City, Netarts, Neskowin, and Point Meares.....

1992: 2.0k Votes (50.2% D- 26.3% R- 23.4% Perot)       +470 (D Votes)                   +24 % D
2008: 2.5k Votes (59D- 38R)                                           +540 (D Votes)                   +21 % D
2012: 2.3k Votes (57D- 40R)                                           +390 (D Votes)                   +17 % D
2016: 2.6k Votes (49D- 40R)                                           +245 (D Votes)                    +9  % D

So missing 3rd Party votes from '08 to '16... Bernie bags 4-5% of the vote and ties with the Libertarian nominee, and the Greens capture about 2%....

Very similar pattern to small town Coastal areas, and although Trump basically maintained the Republican '12 base ....

4.) Let's roll into "Cheese Country", the agricultural and dairy farming regions of the County (13% of the County Vote), that go back historically towards a "Socialist" experiment known as Farmer Co-ops, that went mainstream during the great days of FDR and the New Deal....

(Precincts 06, 07, 15, 26, 27 & 28)---- Interested if any one can pull up better precincts more representative of the dairy industry in Tillamook, but I think this is a pretty decent attempt)

2008: (39-54 R)    +15 R
2012: (37-59R)     +24 R
2016: (26-61 R)    +35 R

Wow! So what happened here???

Obviously some major issues in Dairy Country (Anyone want to check out similar precincts in Wisconsin for a comparison???) 

It looks like almost 5% of the voters wrote in Bernie, and the Libertarian candidate bagged close to 7%....

Regardless, Trump added a significant number of Obama '08/'12 Voters, and many of the Dairy Farmers/Families/Employees in these precincts

What I suspect might be occurring in Dairy Country, is a swing towards Trump from older voters (Including many Vets), in an area where most of the local Drug-Free local boys don't want to bail hay, or work a 3rd Shift job in a dairy farm, and migrate down the road to the bright lights and big City of Tillamook... Millennials around here are heavily Latino and the sons and daughters went to the same public schools together.... Maybe I am totally wrong, but it is interesting to see a dramatic swing towards 3rd Party candidates here...

It could also be that the Obama administration didn't act to bail out dairy farmers, and HRC got caught in the crosshairs.... IDK

Regardless, it made a big impact in terms of Tillamook County '16 election margins.....

http://dailycaller.com/2016/07/29/congress-asks-usda-to-bail-out-dairy-industry/

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/tillamook/2015/07/dairy_done_right_landscape.html

http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/opinion/readers/2015/05/07/preserving-tillamook-countys-dairy-industry/70959238/

Here is a list of the top farm subsidized businesses in Tillamook County....  Curious to see how Trump will address the issue that is causing major economic hardship in Dairy Country....

https://farm.ewg.org/top_recips.php?fips=41057&progcode=totalfarm

5.) Rural Mountains--- (3.1k votes)---- (22.1% of County Votes)

Basically, this includes precincts located within the Oregon Coastal Mountain range... Although the Census Bureau lists "Agriculture" as the main occupational sector, really we are talking about loggers and not farmers (Marijuana excepted)....

This is a place, like many other relatively remote parts of Oregon, where if you see a "No trespassing" sign, you learn at a young age not to jump a fence, because you might accidentally get shot by a local property owner that suspects the worst and shoots first and asks questions later....

Rugged remote and almost everyone owns guns, regardless of political ideology or partisan identity....

2008: 3.1k Total Votes (46D- 50R)           +110 (R) Vote Margin     +4 % R
2012: 2.9k Total Votes (44D- 52R)           +250 (R) Vote Margin      +8 % R
2016: 3.1k Total Votes (31D- 57R)           +820 (R) Vote Margin     +26% R

So WTF happened to the Democratic Party between '12 and '16 when it came to the top of the ticket?

How could Obama have captured almost 50% of the vote in both '08 and '12. and then in '16 Clinton only is able to capture < 1/3 Votes???

Was it just that Trump has/had a unique appeal, or a backlash against the "LDC" win of the Democratic Party going back to the days of Bill Clinton and finally had enough of the stale regurgitated platitudes of the '90s?

Was it a fundamental rejection of both major political parties, that for far too long have appeared more interested in what is happening in Wall Street than Main Street?

Needless to say, it is absolutely clear that Tillamook County is a perfect example of the flaws in not just Hillary Clinton the candidate, but additionally the very concept of nationalization of elections that the Democratic Party has been pursuing for over 20 years.....

FDR built the modern Democratic Party coalition with both Urban and Rural elements as a foundation of the New Deal....

Johnson expanded this in many ways, and provided electricity and indoor plumbing to places from the Hill County of Texas to Appalachia, and also the larger cities of America....

Somehow the Democratic Party has forgotten the legacies of the New Deal and Great Society, and in the barren wasteland left behind ceded the ground to Trumpism, who in many ways is an extreme rejection of traditional Republican Party orthodoxies (Although I think he will get reined in by the House and Senate Republicans)

 

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

If I may make a request, could you do Lake County next? Keep up the good work!

[NOVA Green]

If I may make a request, could you do Lake County next? Keep up the good work!

Finishing up Linn County, as we speak, I can definitely pop over to Lake County next, although because there are relatively few precincts, which makes it a bit more difficult to slice & dice numbers it's harder to drill down to a level of detail, but it is certainly interesting to see such a dramatic swing towards Trump in a part of the state, where many observers had considered the Republican vote virtually maxed out over the past decade or so, but apparently that was not the case at all....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #21- Linn County--- Pop 118k

Arguably the most currently Republican County West of the Cascade Mountain Range, located outside of Southern Oregon.....

In many ways it exemplifies the collapse of rural, small-town, and even support within the cities of "White Working Class" America for Democratic Presidential Candidates decades prior to the arrival of Donald J. Trump....

(87% White, 8% Latino)---- MHI $46.9k/Yr....  Occupations are disproportionately concentrated in Blue Collar occupations and sectors such as production/manufacturing, Construction, Transportation, Repair & Maint, as well as well as "Pink Collar" jobs in Administration and Health Care....

In many ways a significant population of the County is a giant Bedroom Community, where people commute to Corvallis or Salem for employment, in order to be able to afford a starter home in a fairly expensive part of the state....

I have family members living in Albany for that very reason, many former co-workers that commuted to Corvallis to work for Samaritan Health Services (SHS) or Hewlett-Packard....

Lebanon is a similar gig, but is a much further commute, so that depends on how much "house" you can afford to buy and how long you want to drive each day to pay for your house, not to mention other individual decisions such as the quality of the local schools, access to medical centers, etc....

Additionally, in Linn County, you have one of the only zoned "Heavy Industrial" areas between Eugene and Salem, right outside of Millersburg, not to mention easy access to I-5 for construction contractors and Maint/Repair Techs, and an easy swing down the State Highway towards Sweet Home to essentially service most of the population centers of the County.

Agriculture is also big.... billboards greet you when you roll into Linn County that it is the "Grass Seed Capitol of the World".... There is probably still a local backlash from grass-seed farmers about the ban on "field burning", which was a practice where grass seed farmers would routinely burn their fields every Summer, but after a (100) car pile-up on I-5 with multiple fatalities back in the late '80s/early '90s, there were major restrictions on grass seed burning anywhere close to a Highway or major population centers....

There are other types of agriculture within the County, quite a bit of Dairy and Sheep farming, and obviously a decent amount of Timber, particularly once you start heading into the Foothills of the Cascade Mountain Range to the East....

So what can we discern based upon historical voting patterns in LinnCo?

1988: (47-51 R)                      +4 R
1992: (34D-37R- 29 Perot)      +3 R
2000: (38-57 R)                      +19 R
2004: (38-60 R)                      +22 R
2008: (43-54 R)                      +11 R
2012: (40-56 R)                      +16 R
2016: (31-57 R)                      +26 R

So we see Linn County shift from a slightly Republican leaning County in '88 and '92 (Albeit with one of the highest percentages for Perot in any County in Oregon), to George W. managing to bag most of the Perot voters in '00 and '04. Obama was able to reverse the pattern somewhat in '08 and '12, but then Democratic numbers collapse completely in '16..... What gives?

In order to look at the results, we obviously need to start with the larger cities first, before delving into the small towns and rural areas.....

This is made a bit more difficult in the case of Linn County, since both precinct level results and maps are not easily accessible.... unfortunately I tossed a comprehensive manually compiled data-set spanning from '82-'90 for virtually all precincts in Oregon for Federal, Statewide, Initiatives, etc.... away about ten years ago, thinking I was never going to get back into looking at precinct level returns.

1.) Albany Oregon---- Pop 51.6k- 2013----  34.7% of '16 Voters (LinnCo Portion only)

(81% White, 13% Latino)----- (MHI  $47.6k/Yr)

If we look at occupations and industries, we see Health Care, Manufacturing, and Retail disproportionately represented, along with Information, Hospitality, as well as a disproportionate % employed in law enforcement and fire fighting.

Note---- roughly 10% of the population is located in Benton County, as part of an annexation in the early '90s, so any election results are specific to the Linn County portion only.

Albany is not the most visually attractive city in Oregon in many regards, because it is a regional shopping center for box stores that have been zoned out of other local communities, the heavy industrial area just North of the City in Millersburg used to create a smelly haze when there was a Southward wind from the Pulp Mill, and less restrictions on residential development by the City than in neighboring Corvallis.

Regardless, Albany actually does have a smaller city charm, and actively engaged civic community, with lovely parks that stretch along the Eastern banks of the Willamette River, that every Summer attracts thousands to see major musical artists for free from all genres, one of the best amateur Community Theaters in the region, one of the older historical districts of any city in Oregon, the famous "Timber Carnival" that is still running today which started in 1941, featuring activities such as "log rolling" and "axe throwing" as well as the largest Veterans Day Parade in Oregon, which I participated in one year as a Teenager with one of my friends and his Dad as part of the "Vietnam Veterans Against the War" contingent that was right behind the Desert Storm Vet contingent....

Economically, the base of Albany was long time heavy industry, as well as a large International Paper pulp mill, that shut down seven years ago....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wah_Chang_Corporation

http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/oregon-metallurgical-corporation-history/

http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2009/10/paper_mill_to_close_near_alban.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdznDtvqFs8

Albany is also the proud home of multiple United Steel Worker Unions that have been standing tall and proud against various attempts by the operators to gut wages, benefits and conditions that go back to a somewhat adversarial Labor-Management relationship in a major and strategic Defense Plant in the US...

I remember, as do many members of the community the strike of '02, where workers,families, and members of the community volunteered to keep the picket lines rolling at all of the entrances to the facility...

http://www.themilitant.com/2002/6601/660163.html

Another labor situation (A total lockup of employees in multiple states), where the company tries to "divide and conquer" by trying to force individual plants to fold, to pit worker against worker, plant against plant....

https://nwlaborpress.org/2015/12/albany-steelworkers-locked-out-but-standing-proud/

http://www.sojwj.org/home/2015/12/11/belts-tighten-as-ati-lockout-of-union%E2%80%88steelworkers-enters-fourth-month/

http://www.peoplesworld.org/article/long-ati-lockout-ends-with-steelworkers-win/

YES!!!----

Albany Oregon Presidential Election Results '92-16 (Linn County Only)

1992: (37D-35R- 29 Perot)     +4 D
2008: (49- 47D)                     +2 D
2012: (47-49 R)                     +2 R
2016: (39- 47R)                     +8 R       (5% Write-Ins (Bernie?), 7% Libertarian, 3% Green)

So actually it appears that Albany has been a narrowly Democratic bent, and that the -8% in drop-off of '12 > '16 Democratic support might well have been predominately a factor of Obama '08/'12 voters moving to the Left, or rejecting Clinton, rather than any increase in support for Trump, considering he was only able to match McCain '08 numbers as a percentage of the total vote....

Time to drill down into the precincts to see what's going on in further detail....

The most Latino & WWC precincts in Albany includes (01, 03, 05, 08, 11, 14, 84, 91, 105, & 106)..... 20-25 % Latino, MHI ~ $30k/Yr....

I have Grandchildren in the public schools in this part of Albany, and it is an affordable area with a decent number of younger families...

2008: 5.9k Votes (33% of City Total)     (54D-42 R)                                                          +12 D
2012: 5.8k Votes (33% of City Total)     (53D-42R)                                                           +11 D
2016: 6.8k Votes (33% of City Total)     (41D-43 R)  (5-WI (Bernie?), 7% Lib, 3% Green)    +2 R

So, if there was a Latino surge here, it appears to have gone heavily towards 3rd Party Candidates and/or Anglo WWC younger voters swinging 3rd Party and/or Trump....

Regardless, it is actually remarkable that Trump won these precincts, and attests to the failure of the Democratic Candidate connecting to working-class voters in the most Democratic precincts of Albany.

The two wealthiest precincts in Albany (MHI $67k/Yr), #16 and #96.... SW Albany around the historical district....  (7.2% of City Votes)

2008: 1365 Votes (52D-44R)     +8D
2012: 1360 Votes (49D-47R)     +2D
2016: 1468 Votes (44D-43R)     +1D    (Write-Ins 4%, Libs 6.5%, Greens 2.3%)

There were actually only a handful of precincts in Albany where Trump cracked over 50%.... most notably precinct #95 that includes some areas in NE Albany, where there is one of the largest trailer parks in the city with a significant number of older Anglo retirees...

2008: (43D-53R)                     +10R
2012: (41D-55R)                     +14R
2016: (31D-57R)                     +26R

We could also look at precinct #93 in the far NE part of the City by the Airport, where there have been a number of new homes built in the past 5-10 years....

2008: (44-53R)     +9 R
2012: (43-54R)     +11 R
2016: (35-52R)     +17R

So again, appears more of a repudiation of Clinton than an endorsement of Trump in Albany Oregon....

Will follow-up with a few of the other cities in the county on the next segment (Lebanon & Sweet Home).

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #21- Linn County--- Part II

Time to shift to several of the other larger cities within the County to examine their voting patterns over the past few election cycles, to not only explain the results from November, but also look at the shifting political patterns and electoral coalitions within Linn County....

1.) Lebanon---- Pop 15.6k---- 12.6% of '16 County Vote

88% Non-Latino White, 4% Latino, MHI $ 44.3k/yr (Bit lower than County average).

Occupationally & economically the predominate industries for residents are Health Care (18.6%), Manufacturing (14.8%), Retail (14.3%), Construction (9.5%).....

Men are most concentrated in the Manufacturing Sector (23%) & Construction (15%), 29% of women are employed in the Health Care sector.

Educationally, 24% of the population has a degree higher than a HS Degree, and 15% a four year degree or above....

Major employers: Lowes (Major distribution Center), Wal-Mart (Super Walmart built about 10 years ago), a local Medical Center, and Entek a "Hi-Tech" company that manufactures precision plastics for battery separators....

The unemployment rate went from 14% in '09 to 7% today.

Politically:

1992: (37D- 35R- 28 Perot)       +2 D
2008: (44D- 52R)                      +8 R
2012: (42D- 53 R)                     +11 R
2016: (31D- 54R)                     +23 R   (5% Write-Ins (Bernie?), 7% Libertarian, 3% Green).

So, what is important to note here, is the firstly, the Republicans were the major beneficiaries of the Perot '92 voters between '92 and '08....

Obama was relatively competitive, keeping the Republican voting share barely above 50%....

Clinton was overwhelmingly unpopular, but that vote did not really translate to a gain in Republican votes between '08 and '16....

Unfortunately I don't have the '00/'04 detailed precinct level results, but I suspect that George W. actually performed significantly better in Lebanon than McCain/Romney/Trump for a Republican candidate....

Anyone that has access to those data files, please shoot me a PM, since Linn County precinct numbers are some of the hardest to obtain in Oregon.

2.) Sweet Home--- Pop 9.0k--- 6.2% of County Vote (2016)

One of the "Whitest" parts of Oregon 96% White, 2% Latino.... MHI $ 34.1k/Yr

Occupationally & Economically the collars are overwhelmingly "Blue" and "Pink"....

17% of the population is employed in the manufacturing sector, 17% in Retail, 14% in Health Care, 12% in Education....

18% of workers are classified as administrative by occupation, 10% production, 8% Sales, 6% Food Service, 6% personal care, 6% repair, 6% material moving....

Fully 6% of residents of Sweet Home are employee in Law Enforcement and Fire Fighting....

Sweet Home was one of the hardest hit Timber Based communities in the 1980s, starting with the Reagan Recession of the early '80s, and a bit later on as a result of locally owned mill closures unable to afford the capital to retool later in the decade, with a mixture of foreign competition, automation, and environmental regulations that protected endangered species in Old Growth forests of the Cascade Mountain Range, creating a major local economic collapse....

It is a city local in a very beautiful part of Oregon and the US, close to majestic Mountain Forests and Cascade Foothill lakes, that very much feels like a town in decay, even from when I was young in the 1980s....

There used to be a time not too far back (1980s), when this was a reliably Democratic City, when the Democratic Party was perceived as a party that represented farmers, mill workers (Non-Union here), and mainstreet small businesses... In Sweet Home that is increasingly a fading dream of the past, and just as in other similar communities in the Ohio River Valley, Coal Country in Appalachia, the Corn and Dairy Countries of Wisconsin/Iowa, and elsewhere....

Politically:

1992: (37.2% D- 35.1% R- 27.7 % Perot)       + 2D
2008: (41D-55R)                                             +14 R
2012: (36D-60R)                                             +24 R
2016: (26D-63R)                                             +37 R    (4% Write-Ins, 5% Libertarian, 3% Green)

So here we see a clear pattern.... Perot '92 voters realigned towards McCain in '08, although Obama was able to at least capture 41% of the vote, roughly 1/20 voters that supported Obama in '08 voted for Romney in '12..... Now you see Clinton losing 10% of the Obama '12 Democratic %, and Trump gaining 3% off of Romney '16, and 8% off of McCain '08!!!!

The question for Democrats, is are these numbers reversible? Trump does not appear to have created the trend towards the Republican Presidential candidates, but certainly was best positioned to exploit it politically.

Neo-liberal Democrats are not particularly popular out here, and the downward spiral appears to directly coincide with Bill Clinton's administration, although it is possible that the local politics of Timber might have pushed that along a bit, during a time of extensive Mill Closures in Sweet Home and the surrounding regions.....

Next stop, some of the smaller towns and rural communities, based upon the best data that I have available....

Edit: Meanwhile I neglected to mention the impact of drug addiction & Mexican Cartels that Trump used as part of his campaign stump speech (Although more targeted on Heroin addiction in the Eastern US)..... Meanwhile out in Sweet Home (Like in many parts of small town and rural Oregon), we have a major Crystal Meth problem, and although I am sure Clinton had detailed plans to combat drug addiction, it didn't get any coverage from the MSM (That I can recall) during the GE....

These are LOCAL news stories that Oregonians are seeing regularly, particularly in the hardest hit communities.

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2015/06/new_drug_report_paints_a_less-.html

https://www.dea.gov/pubs/states/newsrel/seattle070706.html

http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/crime/2016/08/05/stolen-guns-meth-seized-linn-county-drug-bust/88296342/

http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/crime/2016/09/19/8-arrested-25-pounds-meth-seized-drug-busts/90714656/

http://www.kptv.com/story/28636631/linn-county-deputies-arrest-6-seize-drugs-worth-80k

http://katu.com/news/local/albany-pd-drug-bust-nets-8-arrests-25-pounds-of-meth-113k-cash

Now---- It's all great that we are making progress in taking down labs and distribution networks across the state, but where was Hillary Clinton on the campaign trail talking about substance abuse?

[GoTfan]

If I may make a request, could you do Lake County next? Keep up the good work!

Finishing up Linn County, as we speak, I can definitely pop over to Lake County next, although because there are relatively few precincts, which makes it a bit more difficult to slice & dice numbers it's harder to drill down to a level of detail, but it is certainly interesting to see such a dramatic swing towards Trump in a part of the state, where many observers had considered the Republican vote virtually maxed out over the past decade or so, but apparently that was not the case at all....

This actually a pretty good analysis. Thanks for this (even if it is a bit tedious)

[NOVA Green]

If I may make a request, could you do Lake County next? Keep up the good work!

Finishing up Linn County, as we speak, I can definitely pop over to Lake County next, although because there are relatively few precincts, which makes it a bit more difficult to slice & dice numbers it's harder to drill down to a level of detail, but it is certainly interesting to see such a dramatic swing towards Trump in a part of the state, where many observers had considered the Republican vote virtually maxed out over the past decade or so, but apparently that was not the case at all....

This actually a pretty good analysis. Thanks for this (even if it is a bit tedious)

Thanks for the feedback GoTfan!

Agreed that the format makes it a bit tedious to wade through all of the layers of text....

My preference would be to supplement the text backed format with precinct maps, with visual reference notes on census data overlaps and a few charts and tables to break it up a bit, but unfortunately I don't have access to all precinct maps and software abilities to add more of a "visual element"

For those interested in checking out the works from an individual whose work that I profoundly admire, who combines both insightful analysis and detailed breakdown of Oregon politics, combined with a visual based format....

If you open the link and once you read this excellent extensive article, next step would be to click on his name and pull up many of this other blog postings that provide a similar high quality level of analysis on other Oregon related items....

For any Republican, Indie, and 3rd Party avatars out there, ignore the fact that these works are posted on Daily Kos, but rather review the actual content based nf the analysis itself.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/1/16/1620845/-Oregon-2016-election-results-by-legislative-district

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #21- Linn County--- Part III- Small Town & Rural Linn

So what about the 46% of the voters that don't live in the three largest cities?

This population obviously accounts for a significant population of the county voters, and any shift, even around the margins will have a significant impact on total county percentage results....

This task is slightly more difficult as it includes multiple "split-precincts" that include both smaller towns and some of the surrounding "rural areas".

Additionally, precinct boundaries have shifted around a bit that makes it a bit harder to do direct "apples-to-apples" comparison between '08 and '16, but we can still pull a relatively decent and reasonable comparison over the years....

The "Towns" include the following communities (Sodaville, Halsey, Harrisburg, Mill City, Waterloo, Idanha, Scio, Millersburg, Brownsville, Tangent, Gates, & Lyons).

1.) Small Towns----   13.5% of '16 County Vote

Note that although this includes a variety of communities, generally these are fairly established small population centers, that provide commerce to the surrounding areas, from local feed/agricultural supply stores, diners, and shopping, and in some of these towns there are jobs tied to manufacturing, such as the Pulp mill in Halsey, Grass Seed plants in Tangent, heavy Industry in Millersburg (Connected to Albany as a predominately "Heavy Industrial" zoned community), Harrisburg--- multiple mfg employers)

2008: (39D-58R)      +19R
2012: (34D-63R)      +29 R
2016: (26D- 65R)      +39R        (3% Write-Ins, 5% Libertarian, 2% Green)

Needless to say, these are completely awful results for a Democratic Presidential candidate, and additionally, as have observed in some other small town/rural parts of Western Oregon, the major swing against the Democratic Party occurred in '12, although Trump did manage to increase the Republican vote totals by 2%, which is not insignificant....

Although most of these towns have historically tended to lean slightly Republican, but there are variations, and some of these cities used to have a Democratic lean back in the '80s and early '90s.

I don't have the '88 precinct results available anymore, but it is unfeasible to see Dukakis not having won the majority of the vote in these towns....

If we roll back to '92, we see 5/50 top towns in Oregon for Perot on this list....

Of the top 50 Republican cities/towns in Oregon 3/5 pop up on this list...

Scio:   Not to far from the old Pulp Mill in Millersburg that recently was self-imploded....

1992: (36% Perot- 35% Bill Clinton- 29% Bush Sr)        +6D
2008: (47D- 49R)                                                         +2D
2012: (43D-54R)                                                           +11 R
2016: (23D-63R)                                                           +40R  (2% WI, 9% LBT, 2% Green)

Halsey: Site of a large pulp mill.... I remember way back in '88 Jesse Jackson showed up to a Union Rally during the strike of '88 during the Oregon Democratic primaries)

1992: (37D-34R- 29 Perot)                                            +3 D
2008: (32D-65R)                                                          +33 R
2012: (23D-73R)                                                          +50R
2016: (14D- 77R)                                                         +63R

Meanwhile the mill just got bought out in 2010, after a well respected local company (Pope & Talbot) went bankrupt in '08 in order to sell pulp to China...

http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2010/02/hong_kong_corporation_buys_ore.html

Hmmm....

Brownsville-

1992: (36D- 32R- 32 Perot)                    +4D
2008: (41D-57R)                                   +16R
2012: (38D-59R)                                    +21R
2016: (32D-57R)                                    +25R   (4% WI, 5% Lib, 2% Green)

Harrisburg-

1992: (32D- 40R- 28 Perot)                  +8R
2008: (40D-58R)                                  +18R
2012: (35D-62R)                                  +27R
2016: (27D-63R)                                  +36R     (4% Write-Ins, 5% Lib, 2% Green)

I could roll through more, but I think y'all are starting to get the point....


2.) Rural Linn County-----  33.1% '16 County Vote

So here we see some similar dramatic swings between '08 and '16, and in fact the swings between '08 and '12 are likely understated, because of how some of the rural precincts were split from towns between '08 and '16, and possibly a few annexations outside of Lebanon and Sweet Home....

2008: (37D-60R)                +23R
2012: (34D-62R)                +28R
2016: (25D- 64R)               +39R   (3.9 Write-Ins, 5.1 Lib, 1.9 Green)

Breaking down the rural vote is a bit complicated, considering that Linn County is one of the most difficult counties in Oregon to obtain precinct level data and maps from, but let's make a decent stab regardless...

A.) Lacomb- The largest rural precinct in the County (1243 voters in '16)--- 2.1% of County Total and 6.4% of rural votes....

2008: 1.1k Votes (37D-59R)           +22R
2012: 1.1k Votes (36D-59R)           +23R
2016: 1.2k Votes (25D-65R)           +40R    (4% Write-In, 5% Lib, 2% Green)

B.) Pct #86 Rural E. of Lebanon    (1,158 Voters in '16)--- 2.0% of County Total and 6.0% of rural votes

2008: (35D-62R)                +27R
2012: (31D-66R)                +35R
2016: (22D-66R)                +44R     (4% Write-In, 5% Lib, 1% Green)

Let's take a peak at the top Democratic '08 rural precincts....

C.) Precinct # 44 (Rural Corvallis)...  1.5% County Vote, 4.0% of Rural Vote

Although the name indicates that it is part of Corvallis, it is actually a rural precinct, much more so than North Albany is for example, but the proximity has made it more attractive for those that work in the City, and it is also part of the 509J School District...

1992: 780 Votes (42D-36R- 23 Perot)        +6D
2008: 830 Votes (49D-47R)                       +2D
2012: 800 Votes (49D-47R)                       +2D
2016: 860 Votes (45D-43R)                       +2D    (6% Write-Ins (Bernie?), 4% Lib, 3% Green)

So relatively consistent margins between '08 and '16, but a significant defection to the Left in '16...

D.) Precinct # 47 (Rural SE of Corvallis)---- (0.5% of County Vote)-  (1.4% of Rural Vote)

2008: (51-47D)   +4D
2012: (44-52R)    +8R
2016: (34-56R)    +22R    (5% Write-In, 4% Lib, 2% Green)

E.) Precinct # 19 (Riverside)--- 1.2% of County Vote, 3.8% of Rural Vote

Used to be infamous as one of the primary dope growing regions located on the Eastern banks of the Willamette River between Corvallis and Albany....

1992: (31D-37R- 33 Perot)    +6R
2008: (41D-55R)                  +14R
2012: (40D-54R)                   +14R
2016: (34D-53R)                  +19R    (3% Write-Ins, 8% Lib (!!!), 2% Green

Now, there are a lot more Republican voting rural precincts than Democratic precincts by far, so let's take a look at some of their top performing areas in '08...

So if we eliminate precincts w/o significant populations we see the following:

F.) Precinct # 75 (Union Point) ---- (1.5% County Votes)---  (4.5% Rural Votes)

2008: (30D-66R)            +36R
2012: (31D-66R)            +35R
2016: (23D-66R)            +43R    (4% Write-In, 4% Lib, 2% Green)

Not quite sure exactly what is going on here, but this community outside of Brownsville appears have been settled by an Abolitionist Preacher back in the 1840s, that tried to establish a religious colony, which might explain not only its strong ancestral Republican tendencies, but also the lack of any swing towards Trump, which is a bit unusual in rural Linn County.

G.) Other precincts---

We could start rolling through various rural precincts that are more typical such as # 53 (West Scio) that was (32-64R) in '08, (29-66R) in '12. and (21-70R) in '16 or #54 Shedd (35-61R) in '08, (33-64R) in '12, and (23-65R) in '16....

Green Peter in the far Eastern corner of the County (Logging Country): (40-56R) in '08, (37-57R) in '12, and (26-64R) in '16.....

So to summarize, it doesn't appear that Trump was able to significantly expand the Republican base in Small Town and Rural Linn County between '08 and '16, other than adding a few points to the margins, but more a case of a major drop in the Democratic share of the vote between '08 and '12 in these communities, combined with a massive defection of Obama '12 voters towards 3rd Party Candidates in these same areas in 2016.....

The key question for both Democrats and Republicans, is will these same voters drift back towards the Democratic Party in 2020, or is this a precursor towards the rejection of the Democratic brand itself, rather than one particular candidate?

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #22: Lake County---- Pop 7.9k

(87% Anglo, 8% Latino)--- (MHI $33.6k/yr)--- the lowest income by household in Oregon--- one of the older counties in Oregon (56% of the Population 45+)--- one of the lowest proportions of the population with an HS degree or above in the state.

This county is a bit harder than most, as it is one of only five counties in Oregon that I have never had the pleasure to experience...

Located within the high desert region of SE Oregon, known as the "Oregon Outback" on the NW edge of the Great Basin, the history of the county has been heavily defined by the the timber industry, where there used to be an extensive supply of logs from the Fremont National Forest in the Northern part of the County, as well as agricultural and livestock industries....

Lodgepole Pine in particular was one of the earliest foundations of the county economy, and for many decades was a significant region for production of hardwood timber, especially when the first railroads rolled into the region in the 1890s....

http://www.foresthistory.org/ASPNET/Publications/region/6/fremont/intro.htm

Although timber is only a relatively minor component of the current economy, it is still relative as part of the social history and collective identity in a part of the state where most of the population has ancestry and family history in that industry, in an county that is increasingly aging with a slow amount of external population growth.

Ranching & Livestock is also a major anchor of the Counties economy....

With the increased ranching settlement of the region, a series of "range wars" erupted between Cattle and Sheep ranchers, that frequently pitted Irish against the Basque immigrants, that had recently started to migrate to this part of Oregon.

https://oregonhistoryproject.org/articles/historical-records/central-oregon-range-wars/#.WJKm4BsrK00

Additionally, you have a major history of mining within the County, including massive Uranium Mine cleanup activities, as well as potential mining opportunities underground for various natural resources...

http://www.oregongeology.org/sub/milo/ohmi-lake.htm

http://www.sandia.gov/caps/lakeview.htm

http://www.oregongeology.org/sub/milo/archive/MiningDistricts/LakeCounty/LakeviewDistrict/LuckyLassMine/LuckyLassMineReports.pdf


All the history and that aside, time to take a look at the voting patterns in Lake County over the past 10+ years at precinct levels, and throw in a few historical county level results going back to '88...

Lake County Election Results (1988-2016)

1988: (36D-62R)                                     +26R
1992: (27D-47R- 26 Perot)                      +20R
2000: (19D-76R)                                     +57R       (3% Nader)
2004: (21D-78R)                                     +57R
2008: (26D-72R)                                     +46R
2012: (21D-76R)                                     +55R
2016: (16D-77R)                                     +61R

There is absolutely no way shape or form that you can discern any silver linings whatsoever for Democratic Presidential candidates since '92 (And even that is an iffy proposition).

Regardless, it actually looks like Trump's numbers have been relatively consistent for a Republican Presidential nominee since 2000, with the exception of the '08 "Obama Bump".

Time to break down Lake County election results in greater detail:

1.) Lakeview---- (Pop 2.3k)---- (35.4% of the County Vote)

93% White/Anglo, 2% Latino--- MHI $37.9k/Yr

Lakeview is basically a regional center that provides commercial, medical, and governmental services to much of the county, in one of the more remote parts of the state....

So it is not surprising to see a much larger than average concentration in occupations such as administrative, sales, health care support, as well as governmental occupations such as law enforcement & firefighting (6+ % of workers in the city!).

Politically, like the overwhelming majority of the county it is heavily Republican, although occasionally Democrats can perform surprisingly well in Lakeview itself, if they are attentive to the local county concerns and needs.

1992: (29 D- 44R- 27 Perot)                      +15 R (8th most Republican City in Oregon '92)
2008: (28D-70R)                                       +42 R
2012: (21D-76R)                                       +55 R
2016: (18D-75R)                                       +57 R   (4% Libertarian)

So interestingly enough, although Obama was only able to match Bill Clinton's '92 numbers in a three person contest, most of the drop-off in Democratic support actually happened between '08 and '12, and not so much between '12 and '16, which is a similar pattern that we have seen in many other rural communities in Oregon (Although most of my focus thus far has been in Oregon Counties West of the Cascade Mountain Range, and not so much in Eastern Oregon (Excepting Central Oregon a few counties along the Columbia River).

Now what does a potential Democratic ceiling look like in Lakeview?

These might slightly understate the level of Democratic support in Lakeview, since I don't have access to precinct maps might have included a relatively small, but overwhelmingly Republican precinct (#14) into the Lakeview numbers based upon 2008 definitions....

So let's look at how Lakeview votes recently for US Senate elections, with Liberal Democrats on the ballot....

1.) 2016 US Senate (40D-54R )         +14R    
2.) 2014 US Senate (32D-55R)          +23R
3.) 2010 US Senate (40D-55R)           +15R
4.) 2008 US Senate (19D-71R)           +62R  

So, it appears clear that Liberal Democrats can actually perform quite well, even in a Republican stronghold in Eastern Oregon when running for the US Senate as incumbents.... '08 was a bit of an odd year since Merkely was running as a Democratic challenger against an incumbent Republican Senator from Eastern Oregon, so there was a huge gap between communities in the Eastern and Western parts of the state for that particular election.

Ok--- time to take a peak at the "rural" parts of Lake County, which accounts for some 65%+ of the total County vote.... This is a bit challenging, without precinct maps, but I'll make a stab at it to the best of my abilities based upon the precinct names and locations within the County.

2.) "Democratic" friendly precincts.... Not a lot to choose from here (Outside of a few precincts in Lakeview), which I will define as precincts where Obama '08 captured >40% of the vote.

Summer Lake is basically a small resort with natural hot springs, and a natural lake with a ton of migratory birds....  I have no idea exactly what the deal is with New Pine Creek, but there is an interesting story regarding how the small community is in a limbo zone, because of some surveyors error over (100) years ago....

So if Trump wants to investigate illegal voting, maybe he should take a look out here to see if people are voting both in Lassen County California (Trump's strongest County in Cali) and also in Lake County Oregon....

This article is worth checking out for the humor value alone, and has nothing to do with elections...

http://articles.latimes.com/2005/jun/26/local/me-bordertown26

This accounts for a minute 4.5% of the County Vote and 6.5% of the rural vote:

Summer Lake: Precinct #2

2008: (40D- 51R)   +11R
2012: (32D- 57R)    +25R
2016: (24D-67R)     +43R    (6% Libertarian)

New Pine Creek: Precinct #15

2008: (46D-52R)    +6R
2012: (37D-61R)    +24R
2016: (16D-76R)     +60R      (6% Write-Ins)

So if we look at the US Senate races in '10/'14/'16 we see:

2010: (Summer Lake--- (41D-52R))---- (New Pine Creek (42D-50R) )
2014: (Summer Lake--- (49D-43R))---  (New Pine Creek (47D-44R))
2016: (Summer Lake--- (33D-56R))---  (New Pine Creek (33D- 55R))

Let's take a look at the most Republican precincts in rural Lake---

3.) Warner Valley--- (Precincts # 5 & 6)--- 3% of County Vote, 4.6% of rural Vote)

Once again, a beautiful part of Oregon (Please Google it if you don't believe me) and hopefully I'll be able to make it out there sometime in the next few years, as part of a SouthEast Oregon roadtrip vacation.... This is overwhelmingly ranching country, where local farmers benefit from utilization and subsidies in publicly owned land (BLM land).

2008: (12D-88R)       +76R
2012: (11D-87R)       +76R
2016: (8D- 91R)        +83R

How did Cattle country vote for US Senate races?

2010: (28D- 64R)       +36R
2014: (21D-74R)        +53R
2016: (29D-75R)        +46R

4.) Now that we have taken a peak at the most Democratic and Republican parts of Lake County, time to look at a few places where rural voters reside....

A.) Christmas Valley- (17.9% of County Voters, 27.7% of rural voters)...

This is predominately an agricultural precinct (Hay Farming and some smaller scale cattle ranching) with a local commercial center, that used to have a US Air force facility until '02.... The small town was initially the pipe-dream of an ambitious real estate personality, that tried to shop the development to the area in the late '50s and early '60s....

http://www.christmasvalley.net/page9/page9.html

https://christmasvalleyproperty.com/about/christmas-valley-full-history

Politically Presidential Returns:

2008: (28D-68R)     +40R
2012: (27D-68R)     +41R
2016: (18D-76R)      +56R    

Senate:

2010: (35D-55R)    +20R
2014: (30D-54R)    +24R
2016: (31D-57R)     +26R

So maybe a bit of a Trump effect here, but it does look like Liberal Democratic Senators significantly outperform Democratic Presidential Candidates in general...

So overall, this should provide a pretty decent level of detail on Lake County, although there are a few odd anomalies that I discovered....

Why did Liberal Dem Senator Ron Wyden capture 42% vs 50% the Republican candidate in '16 in the Cogswell Creek Precinct, that went (16D-76R) for President in '16, despite a history of traditionally voting 3:1 Republican in just about every other election in recent years???

If anyone can provide me with an answer to that question, I would be most fascinated....

[NOVA Green]

Ok---- for a recap here are the counties in Oregon that I have covered to date, although a few of the earlier ones will need a revamp (Marion County in particular)



I'll be rolling in with Clackamas County next to complete the Western part of the State, and then likely move rapidly through the rest of the Eastside, since most of these counties have a small number of precincts (Umatilla and Klamath as the outliers).

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #23: Clackamas County---- Pop 381k

Clackamas County is the 3rd largest county in Oregon in terms of population, and is a classic "swing" or indicator county for Oregon, since it includes a mixture of working-class communities in places like Milwaukie and Oregon City, as well as some of the wealthiest Cities in Oregon and Metro Portland (Lake Oswego/ West Linn), as well as a significant number of unincorporated urban/suburban/exurban communities, and throw in a large dash of heavily rural precincts and communities in the Southern/Eastern parts of the County....

This is basically a county that if a Republican candidate doesn't win for a Statewide election (Federal or Local), they have exactly a 0% chance of winning period....

Every election where Republicans have come close to winning, thinking a Gubernatorial and Senatorial race, they have been able to win by a decent margin in Clackamas, while also keeping the race close in Washington County, combined with racking up huge margins downstate, and minimizing Democratic margins in Multnomah, Lane, and Benton....

(84% Anglo/White, 8% Latino, 4% Asian)---- (MHI $64.4k/Yr) that makes it by far the highest household income county in Oregon....

Occupations gravitate most heavily towards White Collar occupations (Administrative/Sales/Management).... Relatively, Legal/Mgmt/Construction/Sales/Repair/Business stand out even stronger...

Politically, Clackamas County has long voted to the Right of Oregon in general, although it is increasingly shifting a bit more Democratic over the years...

1988: (48D-52R)                    +4 R
1992: (39D-34R- 25 Perot)     +5 D
2000: (47D-48R)                    +1 R
2004: (49D-50R)                    +1 R
2008: (54D-44R)                    +10D
2012: (50D-46R)                    +4D
2016: (48D-41R)                    +7D      (4% Write-Ins, 5% Libertarian, 2% Green)

So, at least here it appears that overall Clinton was able to maintain the Obama '12 coalition, and that the support for the Republican Party with Trump as the figurehead, has managed to bring the level of support for the Republican Party ever, with the exception of '92 when you had Perot grabbing a full 25% of County Voters....

I'll start rolling through some of the cities in Metro PDX on my next update....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #23: Clackamas County---- Part II

So, as I alluded to previously, one of the key challenges with Clackamas County, is how to methodically break down the County into logical components, since unlike Washington County,  the other major suburban County in the Tri-County Area (The three counties that define metro Portland---- Multnomah, Washington, & Clackamas--- ) there aren't really any major single cities that help define the "identity" of the County, combined with a significant number of unincorporated and rural areas....

My thought to break down WashCo is something along the following lines:

1.) Traditionally Working-Class established  "inner" communities (Milwaukie, Oregon City, Gladstone)--- 17.1% of County Votes.

2.) Traditionally Upper-Income suburbs (West Linn & Lake Oswego) ---- 18.6 % of County Votes

3.) Relatively newer suburbs located close to I-5 that used to be considered more Exurban, where a rapid growth in box stores, retail jobs, and affordable apartments has changed the composition of the communities (Wilsonville, Tualatin, Rivergrove)---- 6.9% of County Votes

4.) Exurban & Small Cities that identify as predominately rural in character.... (Estacada, Sandy, Molalla, Canby, and Happy Valley)---- 13.4% of County Votes.... this is a bit problematic, since in many ways I think Happy Valley doesn't fit the mold of the rest of these cities, and plus several fall more into a rural category than anything remotely approaching exurban.... Will likely rethink this one, but regardless, need to start somewhere....

5.) Unincorporated areas--- these are areas that clearly fall within the Tri-County Urban Growth Boundary, that do not appear to exhibit a significant rural characteristic. This is also tricky---- 25.4% of County Votes.

6.) Rural----  Areas that appear to be outside the urban growth boundary, and with some exceptions appear to exhibit more of a rural character, although again this is tricky in some cases----- 22.6% of County Votes.

So... let's start with the most  "Inner" working-class suburbs first and then go from there....

1.) Milwaukie- (Pop 20.4k)--- (85% White, 5% Latino, 3% Black, 4% Asian)- (MHI- $51.6k/Yr)--- 5.6% of County Vote

Milwaukie is in many ways more similar to the working-class precincts/neighborhoods of inner SE Portland than anywhere in Clackamas County, but with a lower "Blue Collar" component and fewer "hipsters", and more of a classic bedroom community, with a lovely downtown...

Occupationally, is heavily dominate by "Pink Collar" working-class occupations (Administrative 19%, 13% Sales, 8% food services, 8% mgmt, 7% production).....

If I would have bet on the most Democratic City in Clackamas in '16 Milwaukie would have likely been at the top of my list:

1992: (46D-29R- 25 Perot)                    +17D
2008: (65D-34R)                                   +31D
2012: (65D-32R)                                   +33D
2016: (60D-28R)                                   +32D    (4% Write-In, 5% Lib, 3% Green)

This is a place, where in theory Trump might have been able to make some small inroads, but instead he performed worse than George Bush Sr did in '92 in a competitive three person race....

2.) Gladstone--- (Pop 11.6k)--- (84% White, 8% Latino,  2% Black, 3% Asian)--- (MHI- $54.4k/Yr)

Occupationally, 25% of the labor force is in Administrative jobs, 10% Sales, 8% food service, 7% transportation, 6% mgmt)... Transportation, Administrative, Health Tech, Food Service, Construction, and Repair are disproportionately represented, likely as the result of being an affordable part of town right off the 205 and within close proximity to the I-5....

One could argue that this is not a "traditional suburb", however basically the population growth rate has been virtually flat since 2000, which is a bit unusual for most of Metro Portland....

Regardless, it is a key part of the working-class Democratic coalition in the Portland suburbs of Clackamas County for over thirty years...

1992: (42D-32R- 27 Perot)       +9D
2008: (56D-41R)                      +15D
2012: (54D-43R)                      +11D
2016: (49D-39R)                      +10D    (4% Write-Ins, 6% Lib, 2% Green)

Hmmm...

3.) Oregon City--- (Pop 33.1k)--- (86% White, 8% Latino, 1% Black, 2% Asian)--- (MHI--- $60.2k/Yr)

Occupationally, again heavily dominated by Blue Collar and Pink Collar occupations--- (17% Administrative, 12% Sales, 10% Management, 7% Construction, 5% Production). If we look at relative occupations represented disproportionatly within the labor force we see Law Enforcement, Construction, Repair, Fire Fighting, Health Techs, and administrative in that order....

I specifically called out Oregon City during the Democratic Primaries as a place that Clinton was likely to fail, because her message was not resonating in a heavily well compensated but Blue Collar City in Oregon, which used to vote overwhelmingly Democratic....

Meanwhile, we see the classic pulp mill in Oregon shuttering it's doors as a result of unfair trade competition from China in the Pulp and Paper industry...

When the Blue Heron Mill shut down in Oregon City in 2011, it was more than just an economic blow to the community, it was a massive hit to the very social identity of the entire City itself, regardless of some new employers in the Tech sector that set up shop in recent years...

http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016/01/china_is_killing_oregons_paper.html

http://www.oregonlive.com/oregon-city/index.ssf/2011/02/historic_oregon_city_paper_mill_to_close_losing_175_jobs.html

http://www.pamplinmedia.com/cr/26-features/332280-210404-oregon-city-author-robert-bresky-tells-story-of-local-paper-mills-in-new-book

Be that what it may---- Oregon City has moved from a solidly Democratic stronghold, to a marginally Democratic City in '16....

1992: (43D- 28R- 29 Perot)          +15 D    (37th most Democratic City in Oregon)
2008: (54D-43R)                          +11 D
2012: (51D- 46R)                         +5D
2016: (45D- 42R)                         +3D     (5% Write-Ins, 6% Lib, 2% Green)

Lest anyone on the Atlas Forum misconstrue, Oregon City is not filled with a bunch of racist Trump loving bigots, but rather just another working-class community that has been left out under the "New Economy" that both Democrats and Republicans alike have been pushing for decades....

Increasingly as housing and rental prices have shot through the roof in Central areas of Portland, working families are moving further out, in order to pay their rent and deal with longer commutes to support their families (To far Eastside Portland, parts of Clackamas County, and even into Washington County), like my friends Earl and Dianna, that chose to relocate to Oregon City for housing, and although Earl is "Black" and Dianna is "White", they never thought twice nor have ever said anything negative about living and raising their children in Oregon City...

Back onto topic--- if we look at the traditional "Democratic Inner Communities" of Clackamas, we see Milwaukie, Gladstone, and Oregon City basically holding their own, although it appears that likely 3rd Party Voters would have broken harder towards the "Anti-Trump" Democrat had the candidate not been Hillary Clinton.

Still, the traditionally Democratic Cities of Clackamas County do not explain why Clinton was actually able to improve on Obama '12 margins within the County....

Next stop, traditionally Upper-Income "Inner Suburbs" of ClackCo....

[tomhguy]

How do you make county maps?

[NOVA Green]

How do you make county maps?

I do it the low-tech way for county level maps by state....

1.) Download Paint.Net
2.) "Google" or whatever search engine you use for example" Idaho Blank County Map"....
3.) Test some different maps to see what works best in terms of resolution and avoiding county bleed-over when you are painting
4.) Crop/Edit whatever you are trying to do to make it as visually appealing as possible, trying to use somewhat standard Atlas Political Party colors and shading
5.) Go to Atlas and click on "Gallery" and upload your map "Add Picture" ---
6.) Once you have uploaded it to your gallery, click on my images...
7.) Select the image you want to Insert
8.) Scroll down to the very bottom to the "Image Linking Codes" and do a "Control C" after highlighting the entire text within that box....
9.) Go back to whatever thread you are posting on, and do a "Control P" to insert the link to your image file into the appropriate section of your post....

Honestly, this is the Po' Boy version of creating a County Map by State on Atlas, and there are a ton of individuals on this Forum much better versed on this matter than  myself, but this thread helped

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=193009.0


There are more complicated ways, involving GiS software, but so far I haven't seen where this process has been sufficiently explained for us lay-people.   

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=134891.0

If we really want to get into it, there is software out there that can help convert even precinct level data into awesome and amazing maps (Assuming that such data is publicly available for a given county/Metro Region/ etc)....  This is a secret process of the Atlas alchemists and wizards that do not share with the uninitiated, since it evidently involves a Multiyear apprenticeship program, as well as a significant amount of blood, sweat, time, and tears....

Cue someone jumping in a providing a link or update in any of the mapping threads so that I can possibly pull some nice precinct level maps of Oregon to embed into the thread?   Pretty please...

[RI]

Cue someone jumping in a providing a link or update in any of the mapping threads so that I can possibly pull some nice precinct level maps of Oregon to embed into the thread?   Pretty please...

Are you wanting a particular Oregon map?

[NOVA Green]

Cue someone jumping in a providing a link or update in any of the mapping threads so that I can possibly pull some nice precinct level maps of Oregon to embed into the thread?   Pretty please...

Are you wanting a particular Oregon map?

Sent you a PM.... basically any map in a freeware file format that can be painted....

My focus in on the traditional "swing" or elastic Oregon Counties at competitive statewide elections (Washington, Clackamas, Marion, Jackson, and Deschutes)....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #23: Clackamas County---- Part III- (Wealthy Inner Clack- 18.6% of County)

So basically we are talking about two cities---- Lake Oswego and West Linn Oregon....

Both cities were some of the fastest growing cities in Oregon between 1990 and 2004, with the population growth rate having leveled off, in what are essentially cities with a small land area, and no room for expansion, and many residents that don't favor a "high density" model...

Two of the wealthiest communities in not only Metro-Portland, but the entire state of Oregon as well in terms of Median Household Income and Per Capita Income....

These are both cities that used to be key indicators of Republican performance in the State, since they exemplified the model of fiscally conservative and socially liberal model that allowed Republicans to own both Senate seats and a majority of the House Congressional delegation, even with Dukakis winning the state by 6% in '88 when Bush Sr was winning nationally by 8%.

Even to this day, the major reason why Republicans haven't been able to win a competitive Gubernatorial Election is because of places like Lake Oswego and West Linn, despite solid performance downstate....

So, please do me the favor and google statistical Atlas, click on the "Household Income by Place" and you will see the top five areas pop up (Bethany and Cedar Mill--- Uninc WashCo and covered under a previous post, Happy Valley--- to be covered in another post, and West Linn and Lake Oswego #4 and #5 wealthiest communities in Oregon)

Time to shift to Election Results:

1.) Lake Oswego--- Pop 37.0k--- MHI $83.6k/Yr---- 87% White, 4% Latino, 7% Asian)

Occupationally: 18% Management, 15% Sales, 10% Administrative, 9% Business

Relative Occupations compared to statewide average: Legal, Health Care, Business, Management, Engineering, and Entertainment

Age: Significantly older than the statewide average, with a significantly lower population 18-39, and a significantly higher population 44-66.

Education: 71.4% Higher than an HS Degree, 66% with a Bachelor Degree or Higher

Politically:

If anyone would have told me 25-30 years ago that Lake Oswego would be the most Democratic City in Clackamas County in 2016, I would have scoffed at them, and called them a fool for making such a crazy prediction...

1992: (41D- 39R- 20 Perot)       +2 D
2008: (63D- 36R)                      +27D
2012: (57D-41R)                       +16D
2016: (63D-27R)                       +36D     (4% Write-In, 4% Libertarian, 1% Green)

+20 D swing '12 to '16....

Obviously a ton of Romney '12/ Clinton '16 voters here...

Let's take a peak at a few of the wealthiest precincts in Lake Oswego:

Precincts # 156 & 157 (South Lake Oswego)-- 24% of City Votes--- MHI $110-$140k/Yr ---- Overwhelmingly White and Non Latino/Asian precincts...
(25% of City Votes) in just these two precincts....

2012: 5,167 Votes (54D-44R)   +10 D
2016: 5,311 Votes (62D-29R)   +33 D


+23 D swing from '12 to '16....

Precinct #153 is the most heavily Asian-American Precinct in Lake Oswego (15.3% Asian).... It's a bit more "Middle-Class" by Lake Oswego Standards---  (MHI $89.7k/Yr)


2012: (58D-40R)     +18D
2016: (64D-25R)     +39D        (4% Write-Ins, 5% Libs, 1 % Green)             

+21 D swing from '12 to '16...

Precinct #158- SW Lake Oswego--- 13% Latino--- MHI $63.6k/Yr

So... here we have the lowest income precinct in the City and the most Latino precinct in the City, so let's see if there was a Latino "surge"....

Note this is not sarcasm, but in all my precinct level data analysis in Oregon, I have yet to see any real evidence of this, although as I mentioned before I will need to examine Marion County in more detail, and in particular the first Latino majority State House district....

2012: 1,697 Votes (54D-43R)    +11 D
2016: 1,864 Votes (60D-29R)     +31 D     (4% Write-In, 6% Libertarian, 1% Green)

+20D Swing from '12 to '16

So what has happened is that one of the most Middle-Class precincts in the County, which in recent years tilted a bit more Republican than the City average, has now become one of the least Democratic precincts in the County, and some of the most Republican Precincts are now getting extremely close to some of the traditionally marginally Democratic Precincts on the North Side of the Lake....

2.) West Linn--- Pop 25.5k--- MHI $84.5k/Yr--- 87% White, 4% Latino, 5% Asian

Occupationally: 20% Management, 17% Sales, 13% Admin, 7% Business, 6% Education
Relative Occupations: Mgmt, Business, Sales, Legal, Health Care, Health Tech

Education: 62.4% Bachelors Degree or Higher

1992: (40D-36%- 25 Perot)    +4D
2008: (59D-39R)                    +20D
2012: (55D-44R)                    +11D
2016: (60D-29R)                    +31D    (4% Write-In, 6% Libertarian, 1% Green)

+20D Swing from '12 to '16.....

I could tell a story about someone that I vaguely knew in college who came from West Linn back in '93, but I came from the other side of the tracks, and downstate Oregon to boot, and plus our personalities, interests, and backgrounds were so diametrically opposed that we never became close to friends, even in a small College way out in Ohio with only a few Oregonians represented.

Reap them and weep both Clinton and Trump supporters alike...

These two cities are where the Clinton strategy of appealing to Upper-Income Anglos/Whites clearly played well "Big League" or is it "Biggly" ()....

As I have demonstrated elsewhere in this thread, the gains among these voting blocks did allow Clinton to obtain Obama '12 margins in Oregon, but at the cost of massive defection of Blue Collar and Working-Class voters in many other parts of the state.

Obviously the key question for Republicans, is will they be able to regain many of these Romney '12 voters that defected to Clinton and 3rd Party Candidates in the General Election, and the key question for Democrats is will they be able to move these voters into the Democratic column in the long term to keep locking down the two Senate seats and Statewide races in Oregon?





 

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #23: Clackamas County---- Part IV: Exurban Cities

The very definition of Exurbs is a bit problematic, and is increasingly subject to debate, although for the purposes of this thread, I will rely on the relative lack of proximity to the defined "core" urban and suburban cities, with a relatively higher rate of education and income, where much of the population commutes to jobs outside of the "exurban city" as part of a trade off for potentially "more house for less dollars", intangibles such as more of a "small town feel", etc....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commuter_town

So, I will include the cities of Wilsonville, Canby, Happy Valley, and Sandy within this definition--- although there are some significant differences between these four cities, and in some ways Sandy is slightly arguable in this category....

Again, Unincorporated parts of Metro-Clackamas will be covered seperately, which will likely give me a major migraine trying to deconstruct, but oh well....

These are four of the fastest growing cities in Oregon with over 5,000 residents (2010-2014).....

#1: Happy Valley---  (12.6k > 15.7k)  +24.7%
#3: Sandy---           (8.9k  > 9.9k)      +12.2%
#4: Canby---           (15.4k > 16.9k)    +9.3%
#10 Wilsonville---    (18.9k > 20.3k)    +9.3%

* These population numbers are likely understatements following 2015 Census Data that I have seen...

Let's start with the largest Exurban City----

1.) Wilsonville---- (77% White, 14% Latino, 4% Asian)-   (MHI- $56.4k/Yr)

Located a bit South of Portland and straddling I-5 on both sides in a relatively undigified manner, but also close to the suburbs of SW Washington County, but still relatively close to the I-205 for commuters migrating into Clackamas Proper, is actually in many ways more of a traditional older Exurb.... Most of the population growth in recent years has occurred in the Western side of the City around the Villebois area, where there was an urban renewal project to build upon the grounds of a former State Hospital....

It's changed a heck of a lot since the days when I was a kid, in the early/Mid '80s and my Dad would do the reverse commute down the "Five" (Interstate-5) from a modest starter home in the hills of West Portland, to work at the former Tektronix plant, and virtually the only people that lived in Wilsonville were the wealthy boat homes and condos along the South Bank of the Willamette River....

http://www.oregonlive.com/front-porch/index.ssf/2015/09/wilsonville_crushing_single-fa.html

Educationally: 45.7% a degree Higher than an HS Degree, and 40.7% Bachelor Degree or Higher.

Occupationally: Mgmt (14.4%), Admin (13.7%), Sales (12.1%) Business (6.1%)
Relative Occupations by order:  Law Enforcement, Engineering, Health Care, Health Techs, Legal, Mgmt, Repair & Maint, & Business are represented in disproportionate numbers.

Politically: This used to be one of the most Republican cities in Oregon.... I no longer have me '88 Oregon Pres Precinct level results, but I seem to recall Wilsonville giving 70% of the vote to Bush Sr.

1992: (34.3% Clinton, 42.6% Bush, 23.1% Perot)       +9 R    (#15 most Republican City in '92)
2008: 8,006 Voters ( 52D-46R)                                    +8D
2012: 8,438 Voters ( 48.3D- 48.4R)                             +1R
2016: 11,049 Voters (49.6D-37.9R)                             +12D

Wilsonville actually voted to the Left of Oregon as a whole in '16, after voting to the Right of Oregon in both '08 and '16....

So where did these votes change?

Not a ton of precincts to look at, since there are only four precincts in the City....

Let's take a peak at Pct # 203: Charbonneau District--- (19% of the City Vote)- (98% White)- Older retirees (34% of the population is 70+ !!!!)---- (MHI--- $62.5k/Yr)--- This is to be expected in an upper-income retirement community, the MHI is dragged down a bit...

2008: 2,043 Votes (47D-52R)          +5R
2012: 1,968 Votes (43D-56R)          +13R
2016: 2,112 Votes (48D-45R)           +3 D

+16% Swing....

Bop over to West Wilsonville----the most Latino precincts in town 13-21%.... On paper appears to be relatively Middle/ Upper- Middle-Class, but the census tracts don't align with city limits.

Still, Precinct #201 gives us something to work with....

2012: 2,671 Voters (50D-48R)    +2D
2016: 2,743 Voters (53D-35R)    +18 D     (5% Write-Ins, 5% Libertarian, 2% Green)

+16D Swing.....

So interestingly enough the Democratic swing was equal in both the Oldest/White/Wealthy/Retiree precinct as it was in the most Latino and relatively working/ Middle-Class precinct West of I-5.... in the case of the overwhelmingly Anglo Precinct there was a huge gain for Clinton vs Obama '08/'12, and on the Westside there was a gain for Clinton, but greater drop-off of the Republican Vote and increased support for 3rd Party Candidates....

2. Happy Valley--- (69% White, 6% Latino, 18% Asian)---- MHI $ 92.8k/Yr

Korean and Vietnamese-Americans account for 43% of the Asian-American Population, with Chinese-Americans accounting for an additional 14.7%, and "Other" 17% of the community by ancestry,

Education: 58% HS Degree or Higher, 47% Bachelors Degree or Higher

Occupationally: Sales (18%), Management (14.4%), Admin (12.2%), Health Care (6.5%), Business (6.4%), Education 6.3%

Relative Occupations: Health Care, Sales, Law Enforcement, Management, Business, Computers & Math

Age: Population heavily concentrated in the 39-54 yr range, with a significantly lower population of Seniors and those in their '20s, but above statewide average in terms of kids (<18 yrs old)

Politically: Blip on the radar back when I was a teenager in the late '80s.... basically the equivalent of one larger rural precinct....

1992: 1,069 Voters (32D-46R- 23 Perot)      +14R
2008: 5,895 Voters (50D-49R)                     +1D
2012: 6,813 Voters (46D-53R)                     +7R
2016: 9,583 Voters (49D-41R)                     +8D

So +15 D Swing between '12 and '16 and overall looking closer to the Statewide Democratic margins than anytime in the modern history of Oregon Presidential Elections....

Precinct #103 has one of the highest concentration of Asian-Americans in the City

2012: 2,469 Voters (44D-54R)     +10R
2016: 2,966 Voters (47D-44R)     +3 D

Still difficult to break down the Asian-American vote in Happy Valley, considering that the population is relatively equally distributed across the city...

3.) Canby----(72% White, 24% Latino)--- (MHI- $57.9k/yr)

Education: 34% Higher than an HS degree, 27% Higher than a Bachelors Degree

Occupations: Administrative (14%), Sales (11%), Management (9%), Production (7%) Food Services (7%), Education 7%, Construction (6%)

Relative Occupations: Farming, Material Movement/Handling, Construction, Transportation

Is Canby "Exurban" or a rapidly growing commercial center supporting a local rural economy?

IDK---but there is definitely a significant influence and population growth caused by a local demand for labor in the surrounding communities, and I think it probably would fit into this category, regardless of a significant economic and job environment tied to the local rural communities surrounding the city...

1992:  4,466 Votes (34D-40R- 26 Perot)      +6 R
2008: 7,287 Votes  (46D-52R)                     +6R
2012: 7,130 Votes  (42D-55R)                     +13R
2016: 8,069 Votes  (40D-49R)                     +9R    (4% Write-In, 6% Libertarian, 2% Green)

So again, as in many similar communities in Oregon, it doesn't appear that there was a "Latino Surge" towards Clinton, but likely many younger voters defecting to 3rd Party candidates....

4.) Sandy---- (89% White, 6% Latino)--- (MHI $57.0k/Yr)

One could certainly make a strong argument that Sandy is in many ways more of a rural population center than an exurban community, but I will defer to the regional understandings rather than try to reinterpret...

1992: 1,830 Votes (36D- 37R- 27 Perot)     +1R
2008: 3,862 Votes (50D-47R)                     +3 D
2012: 4,004 Votes (46D-50R)                     +4R
2016: 4,853 Votes (36D- 52R)                    +16 R   (4% Write-In, 6% Libertarian, 2% Green)

These results look more typical of a small-town city that is much more rural than exurban, but at the same time there has been a major population growth that is more typical of Exurban communities than anything else.... Anyone more familiar with Sandy want to fill in the blanks on this one???

Regardless, Clinton's performance in the Exurbs (Wilsonville & Happy Valley) definitely appear to have played a role in her outperforming Obama-Romney '12 margins in Clackamas.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Thanks for doing Lake County!

[twinpines]

Very interesting results. Thanks!

[NOVA Green]

Thanks for doing Lake County!

Any time Comrade....

In Lake County, our cells are latent and usually are more similar to the three person cells, much like the Resistance Cells in France and Italy in the 1930s and early/late '40s, unlike places like Hamburg, Bremen, & Berlin, where we adopted larger cell structures as part of the resistance (more akin to the Portland, Eugene, Corvallis, and Ashland?)

Ok--- all joking aside, it is still fascinating that in the most "Trump" county in the state, that Liberal Democratic Senator Ron Wyden was able to perform so well, not just in the "Big City" of Lakeview, but even in rural Cattle precincts within the County.

Meanwhile, I saw a report today the the RNC is now targeting two congressional districts in Oregon CD-04 and CD-05, solely because Trump actually did extremely well (Although the Pub candidates significantly under-performed Trump)....

I will need to roll some numbers on the Congressional results and variance against the Presidential results, but currently my theory is that in both districts you had a significant defection to the Left among typical Democratic constituencies, combined with a defection to the Right on the Presidential level among voters that have voted Democratic for the past four election cycles in rural and WWC Mill towns in Oregon....

Regardless, let the RNC sink a ton of wasted money into trying to swing OR-04 and OR-05, in the case of the former we have a Progressive Democratic US Rep (DeFazio) that has actually deliberately poked a stick in the eye of environmentalists at times with logging issues, stood up for both workers and environmentalist alike when it comes to fundamental Labor Rights and Global Warming, a key Leader of the Progressive Caucus in the US House, and strongly opposed outsourcing of Oregon Forests being shipped overseas, where the products are milled out of state, so that we can buy some cheap TP at our neighborhood Walmart.

CD-05 is a bit trickier..... in theory it should be a more Republican district than it actually is....

One of the first political campaigns that I worked on was in the late '80s/early '90s and the goal was to take the 3-2 Oregon Republican US Rep majority to a 3-2 Dem majority (At that point it was assumed that OR-01 would be Republican because of the dominance of Upper-Income voters in WashCo).

The target was Denny Smith "aka Reagan's Robot", who would consistently support every extremist policy platform (Foreign, Social, and Economic) regardless of the opinions of his constituents....

The wealthy Portland suburbs of Clackamas were ground zero---- hammer him on extremely unpopular voting positions on environmental policies in places like Lake Oswego and West Linn.

Build the base in WWC Democratic strongholds of Oregon City, Gladstone....

Increase the turnout and support levels in the relatively Liberal cities Corvallis & Salem...

Create a tie in Albany/Keizer Oregon....

Minimize the losses in the rural precincts and do a compare/contrast on economic policy....

Although the Trumpistas might have dominated in Lake County, and similar communities in Southern and SE Oregon, I'm not convinced that this is a transferable voting characteristic, although certainly I am the first to admit and have pointed out on several occasions cities/precincts/counties where there was a downballot effect (Coos County springs to mind).... This is still a subject that needs further review.