Oregon 2016 GE Pres Results

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

It's been a while since I've contacted my cells in Klamath County, but I'm assured that they too are waiting for the right time to strike.

To me, the even more shocking thing about Wyden's strength is his support for the TPP (so much that the Working Families Party ran a candidate against him). Not necessarily sure what was on the minds of Trump voters in Lake County, but I'm guessing it wasn't trade.

Did the town of Paisley have any interesting results? It's always fascinating how such a small settlement can actually have a real city structure. Down south in CA, we have a few towns like that, but there's also large "towns" that are unincorporated.

I'd love to see the Republicans waste more money. Hell, my home district (CA-07) is almost a lost cause for Republicans these days. There was a shift in the vote though. Folsom (more educated and home of Intel and Aerojet facilities) trended Dem, while Citrus Heights (lower education on average) trended Republican.

People talk about realignment as if it happens over night, but it really doesn't. It took years for the area where I live to have a slight Dem tilt. Hell, it took a while until Denny Smith finally got the boot. One election isn't the tell-all. The other thing is that the parties aren't like parties in other countries. There's a huge amount of leeway as to what individual people campaign on, which can really throw a kink in finding realignments.

It might take a lot, but people can eventually be persuaded to vote for another party. I think that the Rust Belt was ground zero for that this year. Resource extraction counties had already been going Republican (see Southern Oregon and West Virginia) as Dems became more environmentalist (Nixon did sign a lot of pro-environment bills and Reagan wasn't completely terrible on he subject either).

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #23: Clackamas County---- Part V: Unincorporated Metro Portland 25.4% of County Votes

Deciding how to code unincorporated vs rural precincts was a bit problematic in this regard, since frequently there are overlaps in terms of expansion of population in rural areas, where newcomers might actually commute outside of the rural area and into the cities, suburbs, and exurbs.

Oregon perhaps make it a bit easier than some other states, because the comprehensive land use planning law essentially makes it extremely difficult to add/develop areas outside of the urban growth boundaries, and is designed to protect farmland and timber land against rampant urban sprawl.

Some of my decisions regarding which precincts to include as unincorporated vs rural might be legitimately debatable, but for starters everything located West and North of I-205 pretty clearly fits into this definition....

Additionally, I included areas East of I-205 North of the Clackamas Industrial Area/Mt Talbert (Areas around Happy Valley), and then stretched the map East to include the areas around Damascus and Sunnyside, more Exurban Uninc) North of the 224, cutting off around 242nd Ave and basically starting the area around Boring, Oregon as rural....

2012: 46,475 Votes (24.3% of County Votes)----(54D-43R)   +11 D
2016: 52,206 Votes (25.4% of County Votes)----(51D-38R)   +13 D(4%Write-In, 5% Lib, 2% Green)

So obviously we are talking about a pretty huge chunk of votes from just these areas, and a larger amount of raw votes than most counties in the State....

In a County as fiercely contested by both parties, the difference in just a few percentage points can make the difference between a W and an L.

1.) "Inner Uninc Areas"----

This basically includes the areas surrounding Lake Oswego, Milwaukee, Portland, Gladstone, & West Linn..... areas West & North of I-205.

2012: 27,807 Votes---   (57D-40R)     +17D
2016: 30,691 Votes----  (54D-35R)      +19D

So what happened here?

Generally these communities tended to mirror the voting trends/swings in their surrounding inner suburban communities...

A.) Precincts 280,282, & 283--- 2.2k Voters (Upper Income) swung heavily towards Clinton and Trump captured less than 1/3 votes.... Precinct 283 (Forest Highlands-Birdhill) saw one of the wildest swings between 2012 (52-47 D) and 2016 (62-27D), a +30D swing!!!  This precinct is also 16% Asian-American, (Roughly half Chinese-Americans) one of the highest percentages of Asian-Americans in Clackamas County....

Similar patterns around the leafy mansions of Rosemont Rd - Stafford Rd SE of Lake Oswego and SW of West Linn--- 1.1k Voters (Precinct 320). The results went from 2012 (47D-51R) to (52D-36R)....

B.) Uninc Areas around Milwaukee--- (Pcts 419,420,421, & 422)---- 7176 Votes (

We see a mixture of results with some swinging towards Clinton and some towards Trump (Compared to '12 baseline)....

The biggest swing towards Trump was in Precinct #420, which is basically a small precinct squeezed between SW Portland and Milwaukee....

2012: 510 votes (64D-32R)    +32D
2016: 568 votes (54D-33R)    +21 D

So really no increase in the Republican numbers, just a drop off of Democratic voters towards 3rd Party candidates (Libertarian- 6.7%).

If we look at the larger precincts, Overland Park (3.5k Votes) went from:

2012: (63D-33R)       +30D
2016: (55D-33R)       +22D

I can't tell for sure based upon the census tract level data I'm looking at, but it appears to have an MHI of only $39.4k/Yr and is 10% Latino....

So it looks like in the most working-class precincts of Uninc ClackCo, all of the drop-off was a defection to the Left and 3rd Party candidates, and no swing towards Trump at all!

Time to dip into the breadbasket of Uninc Inner Clackamas----

C.) Oak Grove / Jennings Lodge---- 16,340 Votes

This area tucked in from the NW side of Gladstone to the SW corners of Milwaukee is basically big enough to be it's own city in Oregon....

Precincts: 500, 501, 502, 503, 504, & 505....

83% White, 9% Latino, 2% Black, 4% Mixed----  MHI $55.1k/Yr...

Although generally it averages as a pretty Middle-Class "neighborhood" there are some dramatic differences with some areas only an MHI of $39k/Yr and others above $67k/Yr....

2012: 14,759 Votes (59D-38R)     +21 D
2016: 16,340 Votes (56D-33R)     +23 D      (4.0% Write-In, 4.7% Libertarian, 2.8% Green)

So again, looks like more of a swing towards the Left among 3rd Party Voters... in 4/6 of these precincts there was a swing towards Clinton, and in only 2/6 a swing towards Trump....

Precinct # 504 (Jennings Lodge-North) voted in 2012 (58D-39R) and in '16 voted (51D-36R).... meanwhile Write-Ins (Bernie?) got 5%, Johnson 5%, and Stein 3.3%....

2.) Outer Uninc Areas.... 21,515 Votes

Basically areas outside of Happy Valley and Damascus... many of these areas are more like Uninc Exurbia than Uninc Suburban....

2012: 19,402 Votes (49D-49* R)     +0 R
2016: 21,515 Votes (46D-44R)        +2 D   (3.7% Write-Ins, 5.1% Libertarian, 1.8% Green)

So even in a part of Uninc Clackamas that frequently votes Republican, we actually see Clinton narrowly eking out a win over Trump, with again a significant defection to the Left.

Now some of coding that for example included a rural/exurban precinct of Mulino and parts of Damascus, might be controversial when defined as "Uninc" vs "Rural", but it still illustrates the interesting swing towards Clinton that we saw in Clackamas County.....

So for example, we see Damascus swing towards Trump, with a decrease level of Dem support and Clinton capturing only 34-37% vs Obama's 38-44% in '12.... meanwhile Romney captured 54-59% vs Trump's 53-57%.

If we swing over towards Uninc areas of Happy Valley & Sunnyside, we see a net gain in margins for the Democratic candidate between '12 and '16, although like in many parts of Oregon, a significant defection to the Left.

[NOVA Green]

....

To me, the even more shocking thing about Wyden's strength is his support for the TPP (so much that the Working Families Party ran a candidate against him). Not necessarily sure what was on the minds of Trump voters in Lake County, but I'm guessing it wasn't trade.

Did the town of Paisley have any interesting results? It's always fascinating how such a small settlement can actually have a real city structure. Down south in CA, we have a few towns like that, but there's also large "towns" that are unincorporated.

....

Point #1- Bolded---- "the even more shocking thing about Wyden's strength is his support for the TPP (so much that the Working Families Party ran a candidate against him"

This is an interesting point, considering how well he performed not only in traditional "Liberal Democratic" stronghold counties but even in counties that have been trending Republican over the past decade or so (Coos, Columbia, and Linn spring immediately to mind), as well as within the "Farm Belt" of the Columbia River Valley (Look at Wasco, Sherman, Gilliam, Morrow, & Umatilla) and even down in places like Klamath County....

There were obviously a significant number of Trump/Wyden voters in many parts of the state...

Now, if we look at votes for the "Left" in 2016 Senate Race, we see three candidates that collectively captured 8.8% of the vote (Working Family Parties, Pacific Green Party, and Steven Cody Reynolds (Independent) who ran against the US-OR-House-CD01 Democratic candidate in '14....

http://oregonvotes.gov/voters-guide/english/stevencreynolds.html

It is actually somewhat amazing that Wyden performed as well as he did, considering this level of defection....

I voted for the WFP candidate in the OR Senate GE election, not mainly based on the Trade issue,  since Wyden has generally stood up for the interests of Oregonian workers and businesses alike when it comes to trade policy, and although it sounds like more of an Al Gore 2000 style Democrat "labor and environmental standards" yada... yada... yada.

I voted for a 3rd Party Candidate since he was part of the Democratic Establishment that tried to coronate Clinton as the Democratic Party nominee, before a single vote had been cast....

So, let's pull up a few example to see how the 3rd Party vote played out in Columbia County, which many were shocked as having voted for a Republican President for the first time since the New Deal...

Wyden bags 50% vs the Pubs 39%...

Meanwhile, the highest defection to the WFP candidate are in the Mill Towns in the county...

Clatskanie- 4.7%,
Rainier-     4.0%
St Helens---- 3.6% (?)

Let's roll to the highest level of support for the Independent Candidate (Former Pacific Green Party Opposed to TPP)

We see a mixture of support, with precincts in Deer Island bagging about 6% of the vote, Vernonia (Logging rural town/area) 5% etc....  Scappoose was the lowest level of support within the county running about 3%....)

Going into Coos County--- we see Wyden winning the traditionally Democratic Cities of Coos Bay & North Bend (That swung heavily towards Trump in the GE).... meanwhile we see the two main candidates from the Left (Navickas and Lewallen) capturing over 8%, even ignoring the Green Vote...

We can even go into Linn County, where Wyden captured 42% versus 47% for the Republican, and you see 7% voting for a combination of the WFP candidate and the "Independent" former Green candidate....

Anyway you look at it, it's clear that there is a yearning, even among many Republican leaning voters, as well as Democrats for a 3rd Party voice that stands up against both political parties on this subject.

It's also pretty clear, that there were many Republicans throughout Oregon that felt personally comfortable that Wyden would represent their broader interests, regardless of partisan ideaology, and certainly Oregon does benefit from grain exports to Asia... it still doesn't explain Wyden's performance in SE Oregon, other than just time on the clock and attentiveness to his constituents throughout the state.

2.) Paisley----  Not a particular expert on this precinct/community but here's a breakdown of recent results from '08 to '16

2008: President:          (21D-76R)
2008: US Senate:        (16D-77R)
2008: OR SoS              (19D- 67R)
2008: OR Treasurer      (21D- 60R)
2010: US Senate:        (32D-60R)
2010: OR Gov:             (18D-73R)
2012: President:          (15D-79R)
2012: OR Treasurer      (21D-64R)
2014: US Senate:        (23D-67R)
2014: OR Gov:            (15D-80R)
2016: President:         (13D- 82R)
2016: US Senate:        (27D-63R)


It does appear that Paisley has a pattern of traditionally supporting Democratic US Senators at a much higher level than Democratic Presidential and Statewide candidates....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #23: Clackamas County---- Part VI: Rural ClackCo (25.1% of County Votes)

Time to shift to the rural parts of the county .... These areas account for the second largest number of votes , only narrowly behind unincorporated areas in 2016.

This includes two incorporated small towns within this category Molalla and Estacada, as well as a huge amount of land area that is predominately farming or public/private timber land....
.
2012: 47,050 Votes (41.7 D- 55.3 R)      +13.6 R
2016: 51.585 Votes (34.3 D- 55.2 R)      +20.9 R    (3.8% Write-In, 5.1 Lib, 1.6 Green)

Towns:

1.) Molalla- Pop 8.2k-  (1.7% of County Votes- 7.0% of Rural Votes)

Race/Ethnicity- (88.3% White, 6.8% Latino, 3.7% Black).... One of the youngest cities in Oregon with 28% of the population <18....  with Latinos significantly overrepresented among both the youngest age group, as well as the 20-24 age bracket.

Median Household Income is $48.1k/Yr (towards the bottom of the County)

Occupationally: Administrative (14.2%), Sales (11.4%), Mgmt (7.8%), Construction (7.6%), Repair (7.4%), Production (7.2%), Material Moving (6.1%), Food Service (6.0%)

Relative Occupations---- Repair, Material Moving, Construction, Health Care support, Transportation, & production are disproportionately represented.

This history of Molalla has historically long been associated with the timber industry, and although today there are only two mills remaining, it is still an important part of the communities social and collective identity.

https://www.rsgfp.com/locations

https://books.google.com/books?id=nLLO_ythv_4C&pg=PA113&lpg=PA113&dq=molalla+oregon+timber&source=bl&ots=frScFDCJ64&sig=7Sd70YsMxbHqVzeLDsfMDqRE1Fk&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwify8Do5ovSAhUQS2MKHSx7Cw04ChDoAQg7MAk#v=onepage&q=molalla%20oregon%20timber&f=false

As elsewhere in Oregon, China is increasingly seen as one of the major causes of recent mill closures, and in just the past few days I saw tons of Oregon logs being loaded up onto a giant Cargo Ship "African Raven" in Astoria, Oregon, railroad car after railroad car loaded with logs along Hwy-30 heading to the Ports of the Columbia River, rather than being milled here in Oregon which would provide 3x as many jobs to hard hit Oregon Timber Mills...

https://blog.forest2market.com/pacific-northwest-mill-closures-industry-adapts-to-survive

(Scroll down to the "Changing Markets, Revenue, and Considerations" section of the industry blog)

Molalla Presidential Election Results....

1992: (37 D- 36 R- 27 Perot)      +1 D
2008: (43 D- 54 R)                     +11 R
2012: (37 D- 59 R)                     +22 R
2016: (28 D- 59 R)                     +31 R     (4% Write-Ins, 8% Libertarian, 2% Green)

Wow!----- So a 15 point drop in Dem support since '08 and a 20 point swing since '08....

Note, as I have observed elsewhere, as in many other similar communities in Oregon much of movement of Democratic voters towards Republican Pres candidates actually happened between '08 and '12, with the movement between '12 and '16 more a case of many Obama '12 voters opting for 3rd Party Candidates (No net Republican % increase).....

2.) Estacada- Pop 2.8k-  (0.7% of County Vote, 2.9% of Rural Vote)

Race/Ethnicity- (84.5% White, 10.1% Latino, 1.8% Black, 1.4% Asian).  If you look at ages between 10-18, Latinos make up roughly 20% of the population...

Median Household Income: $45.5k/Yr.... So still on the lower end of the rung compared to surrounding communities, as well as areas within "Metro Portland".

Occupations: Administrative (16.2%), Sales (13.8%), Construction (11.6%), Food Service (6.7%), Facilities (6.3%), Transportation (6.1%).

Relative Occupations: Construction, Material Moving, Transportation, Facilities, Social Services, and Repair all stand out as significantly over-represented compared to the statewide workforce.

Educationally: 15.9% with a degree higher than a HS degree (Including 2 year). 9.9% Bachelor Degree or Higher....

Similar to Molalla, Estacada had its roots as a logging/mill town, although the hydro dam & railroads came first and then the mills, and as a result of the railroad became a "weekend vacation" spot for Portlandiers.... As with Molalla, the decline of the Timber industry has caused the city/surrounding region major economic challenges.

https://oregonencyclopedia.org/articles/estacada/

Christmas Tree farming has increasingly supplanted Timber production in the surrounding areas, along with the cousin of Christmas Tree farming in Oregon, Marijuana production, which I heard first-hand from the son of one of the local residents of the area some ten years back in time.

There is still a mill in Estacada, owned by RSG, the same company that owns a mill in Molalla, as well as in several timber communities in SW Washington State.

Politically Estacada:

1992: (41 D- 31 R- 28 Perot)           +10 D
2008: (49 D- 47 R)                          + 2 D
2012: (48* D- 48 R)                        + 0 D
2016: (35 D- 54 R)                          +19 R  (5% Write-Ins, 6% Libertarian, 1% Green)

So here we clearly have a number of Obama '12/'16 voters that went for Trump (6% of Voters), so unlike Molalla, the Democratic dropoff happened between '12 and '16 vs '08 to '12. Pattern of massive defection to 3rd Party candidates remains the same.

3.) Rural Precincts Proper

So how to break these down becomes the challenge, since precinct boundaries do not easily overlap into Census Bureau tracts, precinct boundaries are not easily identifiable since I lack a Clackamas County precinct map from 2008 (Anyone that has one in their possession please send me a PM)....

What I can do is look at some of the most Democratic and Republican precincts in Clackamas and take a look at the swings between '12 and '16, throw in a mixture of census data that roughly corresponds to the '12/'16 boundaries, add in a dash of comparative numbers from '08 or possibly '92 (Where applicable) to see what we can read from the tea leaves of precinct level data, without some of the historical context to be able to see changes over the past few decades....

Let's start with a few of the heaviest Republican Precincts in 2016....

A.) Far Rural SE County- Precincts # 351 & 361-  (1.5% of County Vote, 6.5% of Rural Vote)

Located SE of Molalla (See above) the land mass of these precincts are overwhelmingly dominated by Federally owned Forest Land....

This region is heavily dominated by individuals who currently or previously worked in the forest products industries (Logging & Millworkers), as well as private land owners who own timber land that they sell to independent logging outfits, that outsource certain functions like trucking/transportation to independent operators, as well as many small business owners dependent upon the revenue that comes into their businesses from neighbors, friends, and family that work or have worked in the industry.

2012: 2,724 Votes (35.4% D- 61.3% R)        +26 R
2016: 3,030 Votes (25.0% D- 65.1% R)        +40 R   (Write-Ins 3.2%, Lib 4.9%, Green 1.6%)

So if we look at a few of the '08 precincts that look like they are a part of the current precinct (#356 Dickey Prairie & Liberal (#351) we see it more like a (38D-59R)....  I suspect that precinct #354 (Colton East) might also be part of the current precinct boundaries (42D- 54 R), but regardless, there was a clear trend towards Trump from Obama '12 voters, combined with 2-3% of Obama '08 voters switching over to Romney in '12.

B.) SW Clackamas- (Marquam Maple Grove- Pct # 352)- (0.9% County Vote, 3.6% Rural Vote)

Located SW of Molalla in the foothills of the Cascade Mountain Range, is still a region where agriculture generally is still associated with timber, and not Grass Seed or other agricultural products more common in the Willamette Valley proper....

2012: 1,670 Voters---  (31 D- 66 R)      +34 R
2016: 1,849 Voters---  (26 D- 65 R)      +39 R   (2.4% Write-Ins, 4.9% Libertarian, 1.7% Green)

ok---- Nothing too dramatic here, unlike in the more heavily rural timber regions to the East/SE.

C.) South and South East of Estacada (Precincts # 362 & 363).... (0.9% of County Votes and 3.8% of Rural Votes)

Located on the NW edge of the National Forests of the Coast Range, these precincts saw the greatest swings between '12 and '16.... Again, this is current and legacy timber country.

2012: 1,687 Votes (46 D- 52 R)     +6 R
2016: 1,779 Votes (32 D- 59 R)     +27 R       (3% Write-In, 4% Libertarian, 1% Green)

D.) East of Sandy (Bull Run-Cherryville)- Precinct # 370-  (1.1% County Vote, 4.4% Rural Vote)

Another area on the edge of the National Forests, this time on the Western Slopes the Northern part of the Cascade Mountain Range.....

2012: 2,071 Votes (44 D- 53 R)     +9 R
2016: 2,269 Votes (33 D- 56 R)    +23 R    (4% Write-In, 5% Libertarian, 2% Green)

E.) Sandy Rural South and SW- (Precinct # 371)

Again a fairly Democratic rural precinct.... (0.8% of County Vote, 3.2% of Rural Vote)

2012: 1,547 Votes (45 D- 52 R)    +7 R
2016: 1,664 Votes (36 D- 54 R)    +18 R     (4% Write-In, 4% Libertarian, 2% Green)

F.) Mt Hood---Brightwood/Welches/Government Camp (Precinct #373)- 1.5% County Vote, 5.9% of Rural Vote.

The most Democratic rural precinct..... A mixture of upper-income Portlandier retirees, some younger ski-bums, as well as to a lesser extent resource impacted communities.

2012: 2,269 Votes (55 D- 41 R)      +14 D
2016: 3,040 Votes (46 D- 41 R)      + 5  D   (4% Write-In, 5% Libertarian, 3% Green)

I could roll through a few more areas such as Beavercreek 2012 (43 D- 54 R) in 2016 (34 D- 55 R) with another 6% or more of the rural County vote, but with a few exceptions, there wasn't really much of a significant gain in Republican Presidential vote % numbers between '12 and '16, but rather a significant drop in Democratic support to 3rd Party candidates....

That being said, the collapse of rural Democratic support in Southern Oregon and Linn County didn't happen overnight either..... it was rather an incremental drop-off starting with a huge support for Perot in '92 and by 2000 and 2004, many of these voters were starting to abandon the Democratic Party for good at the Presidential level, although Obama in '08 was able to pull some of these ancestral Democratic voters back in....

Is the defection of Democratic voters in '16 towards 3rd Party candidates, and to a lesser extent Trump in rural Oregon and Mill Towns a temporary phenomenon relevant only in this one election, or is it a sign of something larger and more permanent?

[NOVA Green]

So here are the 2016 Presidential GE Results for the 100 largest cities in Oregon, by order of population....

Missing a few cities in certain counties, because of precinct issues, maybe RI or someone else could help with that, but it's a pretty comprehensive review of '12/'16 Presidential GE results for almost all of the population centers in Oregon...


1.) Portland- 594.7k---- 2016: (78-13 D); 2012: (79-16 D)         +2% Dem Swing
2.) Eugene-  157.3k---  2016: (66-23 D); 2012: (69-26 D)         +0% Swing
3.) Salem-    156.9k---  2016: (50-39 D); 2012: (54-42 D)         +1% Rep Swing
4.) Gresham- 107.2k--- 2016: (49-39 D); 2012: (55-42 D)         +3% Rep Swing
5.) Hillsboro-  107.2k--- 2016: (55-32 D); 2012: (56-39 D)        +6% Dem Swing
6.) Beaverton- 91.4k----2016: (63-25 D)2012: (62-34 D)           +10% Dem Swing
7.) Bend----     87.1k--- 2016: (52-36 D); 2012: (53-44 D)         +7 % Dem Swing
8.) Medford--   75.9k--- 2016: (39-51 R); 2012: (43-54 R)          +1% Rep Swing
9.) Springfield--59.7k--  2016: (47-40 D); 2012: (55-39 D)         +9% Rep Swing
10.) Corvallis-- 54.7k--  2016: (70-18 D); 2012: (69-25 D)        +8 % Dem Swin
11.) Albany---- 50.8k-- 2016:  (40-47 R); 2012: (46-49 R)         +4% Rep Swing
12.) Tigard---   49.0k-- 2016: (58-30 D); 2012: (56-40 D)          +12% Dem Swing   
13.) Lake Oswego- 37.0k- 2016: (63-26 D); 2012: (57-41 D)     +20% Dem Swing
14.) Keizer---   36.7k---   2016: (39-49 R); 2012: (45-53 R)       +2% Rep Swing
15.) Grants Pass-- 34.5k- 2016: (32-58 R); 2012: (39-57 R)      +8 % Rep Swing
16.) McMinville-- 32.2k--- 2016: (47-42 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +0% Swing
17.) Oregon City- 33.1k-  2016: (45-42 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +2% Rep Swing
18.) Redmond-- 26.2k--  2016: (31-58 R); 2012: (37-59 R)       +5% Rep Swing
19.) Tualatin-- 26.4k--    2016: (53-34 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +14% Dem Swing
20.) West Linn- 25.5k-- 2016: (60-29 D); 2012: (55-44 D)         +20% Dem Swing
21.) Woodburn--- 24.1k-- 2016: (51-40 D);  2012: (52-45 D)       +4% Dem Swing
22.) Newberg--- 22.1k--- 2016: (40-45 R); 2012: (43-53 R)         +5% Dem Swing
23.) Roseburg-- 21.2k--- 2016: (34-55 R); 2012: (41-55 R)          +7% Rep Swing
24.) Forest Grove-- 21.6k-- 2016: (47-39 D); 2012: (53-41 D)     +4% Rep Swing
25.) Klamath Falls--- TBD
26.) Milwaukie-  20.4k- 2016: (60-28 D); 2012: (65-32 D)             +1% Rep Swing
27.) Ashland--- 20.4k-- 2016: (79-12 D); 2012: (81-14 D)             +0% Swing
28.) Wilsonville- 19.6k-  2016: (50-38 D); 2012: (48-48* R)          +12% Dem Swing
29.) Sherwood--- 19.4k-- 2016: (47-39 D); 2012: (47-50 R)          +11% Dem Swing
30.) Central Point--- 17.3k-- 2016: (28-63 R); 2012: (34-63 R)      +6% Rep Swing
31.) Hermistion--- TBD
32.) Pendleton---  TBD
33.) Coos Bay---  16.0k-  2016: (40-49 R); 2012: (52-44 D)          +17% Rep Swing
34.) Troutdale--- 16k-     2016: (44-43 D); 2012: (51-46 D)          +4% Rep Swing
35.) Canby----    16.6k-  2016: (40-49 R); 2012: (42-55 R)           +4% Dem Swing
36.) Lebanon-     15.6k-- 2016: (31-54 R); 2012: (42-53 R)         +12% Rep Swing
37.) Dallas--- 14.7k-- 2016:  (34-55 R); 2012: (43-53 R)              +11% Rep Swing
38.) Happy Valley- 14.9k- 2016: (49-41 D); 2012: (46-53 R)        +15% Dem Swing
39.) The Dalles-- 15.3k-- 2016:  (42-45 R); 2012:  (50-47 D)        +6% Rep Swing
40.) La Grande--- TBD
41.) St Helens--- 12.9k-- 2016: (39-47 R); 2012: (54-41 D)        +21% Rep Swing
42.) Cornelius-   12.0k-- 2016:  (52-36 D); 2012: (54-41 D)        +5% Dem Swing
43.) Gladstone- 11.6k-- 2016: (49-39 D); 2012: (54-43 D)          +1% Rep Swing
44.) Ontario----  TBD
45.) Damascus--- Will need to look into further. 
46.) Newport---- 10.1k-- 2016: (55-35 D); 2012: (62-35 D)         +7% Rep Swing
47.) Baker City-  TBD
48.) North Bend--- 9.6k--- 2016: (37-52 R); 2012: (49-48 D)    +16% Rep Swing
49.) Cottage Grove--- 10k-- 2016: (39-49 R); 2012: (51-46 D)  +15% Rep Swing
50.) Sandy-- 9.7k-     2016: (36-52 R); 2012: (46-50 R)            +12% Rep Swing
51.) Monmouth--9.5k-- 2016: (52-34 D); 2012: (53-42 D)        +7% Dem Swing
52.) Astoria-- 9.5k--    2016: (59-29 D); 2012: (64-31 D)           +3% Rep Swing
53.) Prineville---- TBD
54.) Silverton--- 9.3k---   2016: (45-42 D);  2012: (51-46 D)     +2% Rep Swing
55.) Sweet Home--9.0k-- 2016: (26-63 R);  2012: (36-60 R)     +13% Rep Swing
56.) Fairview--- 9.0k---    2016: (52-38 D);  2012: (57-39 D)     +4% Rep Swing
57.) Independence--9.5k--- 2016: (48-39 D); 2012: (54-40 D)  +5% Rep Swing
58.) Eagle Point--- 8.5k--- 2016: (23-69 R); 2012: (31-67 R)    +10% Rep Swing
59.) Florence--- 8.5k-- 2016: (45-46 R); 2012: (50-46 D)         +5% Rep Swing
60.) Molalla--- 8.2k--- 2016: (28-59 R); 2012: (37-59 R)           +9% Rep Swing
61.) Lincoln City--- 7.9k-- 2016: (48-41 D); 2012: (59-37 D)    +15% Rep Swing
62.) Sutherlin--- 7.8k-- 2016:  (26-65 R); 2012: (34-62 R)       +11% Rep Swing
63.) Stayton--- 3.4k-- 2016: (30-58 R); 2012: (37-60 R)          +5% Rep Swing
64.) Hood River--- 7.2k-- 2016: (69-22 D); 2012: (69-27 D)     +5% Dem Swing
65.) Milton-Freewater--- TBD
66.) Umatilla--- TBD
67.) Scappoose- 6.6k--- 2016: (44-42 D); 2012: (53-43 D)       +8% Rep Swing
68.) Seaside--- 6.5k-- 2016: (50-38 D); 2012: (58-38 D)          +8% Rep Swing
69.) Brookings-- 6.3k-- 2016: (31-59 R); 2012: (38-58 R)         +8% Rep Swing
70.) Sheridan--   6.1k-- 2016: (32-57 R); 2012: (43-52 R)         +16% Rep Swing
71.) Talent--     6.1k-- 2016: (62-27 D); 2012: (65-31 D)            +1% Dem Swing
72.) Madras----   6.1k-- 2016: (35-51 R); 2012: (46-50 R)          +22% Rep Swing
73.) Junction City--- 5.5k--- 2016: (33-55 R); 2012: (42-52 R)    +12% Rep Swing
74.) Winston--- 5.4k-- 2016: (25-66 R); 2012: (35-62 R)            +14% Rep Swing
75.) Creswell--- 5.0k-- 2016: (35-53 R); 2016: (44-52 R)            +10% Rep Swing
76.) Warrenton- 5.1k--- 2016: (37-51 R); 2012: (47-49 R)          +12% Rep Swing
77.) Tillamook--- 4.9k-- 2016:  (38-47 R); 2012: (50-46 D)          +11% Rep Swing
78.) Philomath--- 4.6k- 2016: (48-36 D); 2012: (56-38 D)           +6% Rep Swing
79.) Veneta-----  4.6k-- 2016:  (35-53 R); 2012: (45-50 R)          +13% Rep Swing
80.) Phoenix--- 4.6k-- 2016: (48-43 D); 2012: (53-44 D)             +4% Rep Swing
81.) Reedsport-- 4.2k--- 2016:  (35-56 R); 2012: (45-52 R)         +14% Rep Swing
82.) Wood Village- 3.9k-- 2016: (50-37 D); 2012: (60-36 D)        +11% Rep Swing
83.) Coquille--- 3.9k-- 2016: (27-63 R); 2012: (39-56 R)             +19% Rep Swing   
84.) LaFayette--- Unknown. Split Precinct???
85.) Aumsville- 3.7k-- 2016: (24-64 R); 2012: (31-65)                +6% Rep Swing
86.) Harrisburg--- 3.6k-- 2016: (27-63 R); 2012: (35-62 R)         +9% Rep Swing
87.) Toledo--- 3.5k--- 2016: (38-49 R); 2012: (53-42 D)             +22% Rep Swing
88.) Myrtle Creek- 3.4k-- 2016: (23-69 R); 2012: (34-63 R)        +17% Rep Swing
89.) Mount Angel- 3.4k---2016: (38-50 R); 2012: (43-55 R)        +0% Swing
90.) Nyssa----TBD
91.) Boardman-- TBD
92.) Oakridge--- 3.2k--- 2016: (39-48 R); 2012: (50-42 D)      +17% Rep Swing
93.) Hubbard--  3.2k--   2016: (39-49 R); 2012:  (43-53 R)       +0% Swing
94.) Dundee--- 3.2k--- 2016: (42-45 R); 2012: (47-49 R)         +1% Rep Swing
95.) King City--  3.2k-- 2016: (57-36 D); 2012: (57-40 D)        +4% Dem Swing
96.) Jefferson--- 3.1k-- 2016: (28-60 R); 2012: (37-59 R)         +10 Rep Swing
97.) Bandon--- 3.1k... 2016: (46-45 D); 2012: (52-43 D)          +8% Rep Swing
98.) Shady Cove
99.) Burns-- TBD
100.) Jacksonville--- 2.8k--- 2016: (47-45 D); 2012: (45-53 R)   +10% Dem Swing

[NOVA Green]

Top 25 Most Democratic Cities/Towns (Municipalities in Oregon- 2016 of Top 100 in State by Pop):

1.) Ashland-            Pop 20.4-   (79-12 D)
2.) Portland-           Pop 594.7k (78-13 D)
3.) Corvallis-           Pop 54.7k   (70-18 D)
4.) Hood River-       Pop  7.2k    (69-22 D)
5.) Eugene             Pop 157.3k (66-23 D)
6.) Beaverton         Pop   91.4k (63-25 D)
7.) Lake Oswego     Pop   37.0k (63-26 D)
8.) Talent-              Pop     7.1k  (62-27 D)
9.) Milwaukie          Pop   20.4k  (60-28 D)
10.) West Linn        Pop   25.5k  (60-29 D)
11.) Astoria            Pop     9.5k   (59-29 D)
12.) Tigard             Pop   49.0k   (58-30 D)
13.) King City         Pop    3.2k    (57-36 D)
14.) Hillsboro         Pop  107.2k   (55-32 D)
15.) Newport         Pop    10.1k   (55-35 D)
16.) Tualatin         Pop    26.4k    (53-34 D)
17.) Monmouth     Pop     9.5k    (52-34 D)
18.) Bend             Pop    87.1k    (52-36 D)
18.) Cornelius       Pop    12.0k    (52-36 D)
20.) Fairview        Pop      9.0k     (52-38 D)
21.) Woodburn     Pop    24.1k     (51-40 D)
22.) Wood Village  Pop     3.9k     (50-37 D)
23.) Wilsonville     Pop    19.6k    (50-38 D)
23.) Seaside         Pop     6.5k     (50-38 D)
25.) Salem           Pop    156.9k  (50-39 D)

Top 25 Most Republican Cities/Towns (Municipalities) in Oregon of Top 100 Populated in State:

1.) Eagle  Point---   Pop   8.5k (23-69 R)
1.) Myrtle Creek     Pop   3.4k (23-69 R)
3.) Winston            Pop  5.4k  (25-66 R)
4.) Aumsville          Pop  3.7k  (24-64 R)
5.) Sweet Home     Pop  9.0k  (26-63 R)
6.) Coquille            Pop  3.9k  (27-63 R)
6.) Harrisburg        Pop  3.6k  (27-63 R)
8.) Central Point    Pop 17.3k  (28-63 R)
9.) Jefferson          Pop  3.1k   (28-60 R)
10.) Molalla           Pop  8.2k   (28-59 R)
11.) Brookings      Pop   6.3k   (31-59 R)
12.) Stayton         Pop   3.4k   (30-58 R)
13.) Redmond       Pop 26.2k   (31-58 R)
14.) Grants Pass   Pop 34.5k   (32-58 R)
15.) Sheridan       Pop  6.1k    (32-57 R)
16.) Reedsport     Pop  4.2k    (35-56 R)
17.) Junction City Pop 5.5k    (33-55 R)
18.) Roseburg       Pop 21.2k  (34-55 R)
19.) Dallas            Pop 14.7k  (34-55 R)
20.) Lebanon        Pop 15.6k  (31-54 R)
21.) Crewsell        Pop  5.0k   (35-53 R)
21.) Veneta          Pop 4.6k    (35-53 R)   
23.) Sandy           pop 9.7k    (36-52 R)
24.) North Bend   Pop 9.6k    (37-52 R)
25.) Madras          Pop 6.1k    (35-51 R)

Top 10 Democratic Swings ('12-16)

1.) Lake Oswego    +20% Dem Swing
1.) West Linn         +20% Dem Swing
3.) Happy Valley     +15% Dem Swing
4.) Tualatin            +14% Dem Swing
5.) Tigard               +12% Dem Swing
5.) Wilsonville         +12% Dem Swing
7.) Sherwood          +11% Dem Swing
8.) Beaverton          +10% Dem Swing
8.) Jacksonville        +10% Dem Swing
10.) Corvallis           +8% Dem Swing

Top 10 Rep Swings 2012-2016:

1.) Toledo-     +22% Rep Swing
1.) Madras-    +22% Rep Swing
3.) St Helens   +21% Rep Swing
4.) Coquille      +19% Rep Swing
5.) Coos Bay-   +17% Rep Swing
5.) Myrtle Creek +17% Rep Swing
5.) Oakridge       +17% Rep Swing
8.) North Bend   +16% Rep Swing
8.) Sheridan       +16% Rep Swing

Also tied for #10: Cottage Grove & Lincoln City- 15% Rep Swing


Note: This excludes some counties in Eastern Oregon notably Klamath, Umatilla, Malheur, Klamath, Union, Baker, Crook, and Harney counties where I will update when and if I receive detailed city level precinct results.

[NOVA Green]

So, if we look at the most Democratic towns in Oregon, we don't see too many surprises at the very top, Ashland and Portland have been in recent cycles overwhelmingly and the the top two most Democratic towns in the state at the Presidential level.

In fact there was relatively little swing between '12 and '16 in either of these cities, likely because the Democratic vote has become essentially maxed out. Now, there was a significant drop off to 3rd Party support in some of the most Democratic precincts within Portland, and a significant increase of Dem support in many Upper-Middle Class precincts, so in theory, there might actually be some room for the Dems to expand in 2020 in both cities.

Hood River is that surprising as well, looks like there wsd some marginal Democratic swing, likely as either/or/ and a combo of increased turnout and swings in a town with a decent sized Latino population as well as a fairly socially Liberal population and a base of upper-income voters swinging against the Trumpster.

Corvallis is a bit interesting, since although it is one of the most Democratic towns in the State, there was a significant swing between '12 and '16. Likely this is because, although there is a large college population, many of the students don't actually vote at Corvallis addresses, but rather at their home addresses elsewhere in the State (Or even out of state for undergrads). Meanwhile you do have a large upper-income population that resides in Corvallis where there are still a significant population of
"independent swing voters" that supported Romney in '12, who were not attracted to Trump's message.

Eugene- Democratic gains in upper-income precincts in North Eugene were offset by some swings towards Trump in precincts in Working-Class West Eugene, combined with a huge surge of 3rd Party support in the overwhelmingly Democratic precincts of Inner West Eugene/ South Eugene, and some of the Central Parts of Eugene and near the University.

What *IS* surprising, as a longer term observer of Oregon politics, is the extent of the Democratic Swings in relatively Upper-Income regions of the Portland suburbs.... (Although we now have some comparitive data showing that +20% Dem swings were not unusual in 2016, even in heavily Republican wealthier communities in Texas, Tennessee for example).

So seeing communities like Lake Oswego, West Linn jump into the "Top Ten Dem list is a big deal, especially if it turns to a point where Republicans can only clear 25-30% in statewide races... Happy Valley, is in a similar category, and as the fastest growing city in Oregon, is typically the type of Exurban communities where the Republican Party for decades has done very well.

Equally and perhaps more significant in the long term, are the types of swings we see in more Multi-Ethnic communities of Washington County (Beaverton, Tigard and Tualatin).... There is a large population of Asian-American voters that appear to swung "Hard-D" in Oregon, based upon Precinct data from Washington County, as well as a significant Latino population on the West Slope communities.

The swings towards the Republicans in 2016 in Newport and Astoria is definitely something to watch, since both of these cities are typically in the Top Ten most Democratic cities in Oregon.... Granted there was likely significant defection to 3rd Party voters from traditionally Democratic constituencies, but this is still potentially significant considering these are Democratic strongholds in historically Democratic counties in WWC Coastal Oregon. Realignment doesn't happen in just one or two election cycles, so we will see.

On the Republican, side not necessarily a ton of surprises in the "Top 25 List", although Myrtle Creek tying for #1 is definitely huge.

The dramatic collapse of Democratic support in North Bend certainly stands out, that allowed entry into the Top 25 list in terms of rankings.

However, overall the most interesting item are the Top Ten most Republican swings in 2016....

If you roll through the list, the #1 item is Toledo, where the largest employer is Georgia-Pacific (Now owned by the Koch brothers), that still has large Pulp Mill.

We scroll through the list of Top Rep swings and for the most part we see a similar pattern.... Historically heavily Democratic smaller cities and towns, that have resisted much of the realignment that we saw in the 1990s and 2000s in many other parts of rural small Mill Town Oregon....

Sheridan is perhaps the major exception to that list, but with a large state prison, much of that swing might be related to the Trump "Law and Order" message in a community with a high proportion of employees directly tied to the correctional industry, as well as those within the broader community that have friends, neighbors, and family members with decent paying jobs within the Prison Industrial Complex.

Lincoln City also stands out, since it has been quite some time since there has been any manufacturing related operations within the City....

This brings up the additional point to be added, is that there are a large number of retirees (65+) there, as well as in many of the other communities where we saw the greatest '12 to '16 Rep swings, so age is definitely an additional variable, but in itself is not sufficient to explain the dramatic swings towards Trump in these particular communities.....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #24- Sherman County

Pop 1.9k----   MHI $42.6k/Yr

90% White, 4.5% Latino



Sherman County is part of the Oregon Grain belt, that includes several other counties within the region, that I will cover shortly. Oregon ranks #14 in Wheat production in the entire US, basically from a handful of low population density counties along the Columbia River Gorge.... Unlike other segments of the agricultural sector, it is more machine intensive versus labor intensive, so the shortage of agricultural labor that has been a major item in the fruit and vegetable growing regions of Oregon is less of an issue, than in places that are much more dependent upon seasonal farmworkers, where there is a shortage of labor because of the legal residency/work status of the migratory agricultural workforce....

Basically, it's a lot more like North Dakota or Kansas, but with much of the Wheat product destined for international exports, as a result of close proximity to the Columbia River, where Grain Silos attached to rails and ports, allow an easy export of product to international markets (Especially Asian markets).

http://www.oregonlive.com/travel/index.ssf/2013/09/oregon.html

http://www.ipmcenters.org/cropprofiles/docs/orwheat.pdf

I'm still a bit confused as to the reason for the massive swings in the Grain Belt of Oregon, considering, that actually HRC and TPP is something would would be a net gain for larger agricultural producers that are increasingly reliant on international exports to maintain margins at a time of collapsing domestic agricultural commodity pricing in the domestic market...

Maybe, someone with more insights on this topic can jump in and explain....

Presidential Election Results 1988-2016:

1988: (43-55 R)                    +12 R
1992: (33-38- 20 Perot)        +5  R
2000: (31-64 R)                    +33 R
2004: (35-63 R)                    +28 R
2008: (37-61 R)                    +24 R
2012: (31-66 R)                    +35 R
2016: (20-72 R)                    +52 R         (+17% R Swing)

Relative Industries:   5% utilities, 16% agricultural, 8% wholesale, 7% transportation, 9% government

Relative Occupations: 10% Transportation, 21% Management, 6% Repair, Farming 3.3%

Education: 26.6% with a 2+ year degree

Age: 25% of the population is 65+  (Pop skews significantly older than most parts of Oregon)

Ok--- so the logical question is why would I spend a few hours looking at one small county , where there are much fewer voters than in a single precinct in places like Portland, Eugene, and other large Metro areas within the state.

Firstly---this is a project of passion and love dissecting Oregon Election results by county & Precinct.

Secondly--- I firmly believe that relative occupations and industries are extremely important when looking at the national picture, particularly within the context of the 2016 Pres GE. Much of the focus thus far has been on education, income, and age among White voters, but I don't believe that truly explains the swings towards Trump among various populations.

So, my theory is that we can look at particular industries and occupations to see patterns among White voters in particular, since it is easier to control for that variable in a heavily White state, and then start to match results between Dairy, Pulp/Paper Mills, wheat farmers with other states in our great nation with similar demographics to see if there is a trend regarding industries and occupations, among key voting blocks that created an electoral college victory for Mr Trump.

There aren't very many precincts in a small county of <2k Pop, but let's roll some numbers to see if there is granularity that is potentially transferable statewide or beyond...

Precinct #1--- Rufus--- Basically includes the narrow band of population along the Columbia River and roughly 17% of the county voting population...

Like many other WWC small towns along the Columbia River used to be heavily ancestral New Deal Democratic...

1992: (44% D- 27% R- 29% Perot)           +17% D
2004: (51% D- 47% R)                             +4%  D
2008: (49% D- 47% R)                             +2%  D
2012: (42% D- 56% R)                             +14% R        (+16% R Swing)
2016: (28% D- 66% R)                             +38% R        (+24% R Swing)



Precinct #2: Wasco:



So, here we so a relatively stable precinct that narrowly supported Bill Clinton in '92, swing heavily towards Trump in '16. (32.5% of County Voters)

1992: (35-34-31 D)          +1 D
2004: (36-63 R)                +27 R
2008: (35-63 R)                +28 R
2012: (32-65 R)                +33 R
2016: (23-72 R)                +49 R     (+16% R Swing)

Precinct #3: Moro

26.7% of County Vote....

1992: (29 D- 46 R- 25 I)      +17 R
2004: (32 D- 66 R)              +34 R
2008: (40 D- 58 R)              +18 R
2012: (33 D- 62 R)              +29 R
2016: (19 D- 75 R)              +56 R     (+27% R Swing)

Precinct #4: Grass Valley:

16.5% of County Vote

1992: (30 D- 34 R- 32 I)         +4 R
2004: (30 D- 69 R)                  +39 R
2008: (29 D- 69 R)                  +40 R
2012: (21 D- 77 R)                  +56 R
2016: (15 D- 79 R)                  +64 R      (+8% R Swing)

Precinct #5: Kent   (Ranching Country)

http://www.ghosttowns.com/states/or/kent.html

7% of County Voters

1992: (14 D- 55 R- 31 I)         +44 R
2004: (18 D- 76 R)                 +58 R
2008: (22 D- 70 R)                 +48 R
2012: (16 D- 84 R)                 +68 R
2016: (7  D- 91 R)                  +84 R      (+16% R Swing)

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #25:  Gilliam County

Pop 1,9k ---   MHI $44.7k/Yr

89% White, 8% Latino



Another small county in the Oregon "Grain Belt" that swung heavily towards Trump....

Relative Industries: 15% Agriculture, Utilities 3%, Transportation 11 %, Administrative 12%, Science 3%, Construction 10%, Government 6%

Relative Occupations: Farming 8%, Transportation 12%, Science 3%, Construction 9%, Repair 5%, material moving 4%, Facilities 5%


1988:  (46-52 R)        +6 R
2000:  (33-62 R)        +29 R
2004:  (33-66 R)        +33 R
2008:  (39-58 R)        +19 R
2012:  (35-60 R)        +25 R
2016:  (23-66 R)        +43 R

Let's roll into what exists for precinct level data to see if we can pick up any additional data...

1.) Precinct #1 appears to have combined the classic precinct of Arlington, as well as Olex, smaller i population and much more rural and possibly more ranching country than grain farmers ().

38.5 % of County Vote

1992: (34 D- 38 R- 28 Perot)         +4 R
2012: (29 D- 66 R)                        +37 R
2016: (21 D- 68 R)                        +47 R     (+10% R Swing)



2.) Precinct # 6 Condon East---- (26.7% of County Vote)

1992: (39 D- 36 R- 25 Perot)        +3 %  D
2012: (32 D- 65 R)                       +31% R
2016: (24 D- 69 R)                       +45 % R      (+14% R Swing)

3.) Precinct #7 Condon West---- (34.7% of County Vote)

1992: (36 D- 36 R- 29 Perot)        +0% D/R
2012: (44 D- 50 R)                       +6% R
2016: (26 D- 61 R)                       +35 % R      (+26% R Swing)



Idk... why "West Condon" was generally much more receptive to Obama in '12 and swung so hard towards Trump in '16 vs "East Condon"....

The only thing that springs to mind is a much larger ranching community in East Condon, and a bit more timber industry component in West Condon....

Maybe someone has additional insights here???

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #26: Morrow County



Pop 11.2k--- MHI $49.9k/Yr--- 64% White, 32% Latino

Relative Occupations: 14% Farming, 6% Material Movement, 5% Repair, 1 % Law Enforcement, 10% Production, 6% Construction, 1% Fire fighting

Relative Industries: 21% Agriculture, 15% manufacturing, 10% retail

1988: (46-51 R)              +5 % R
1992: (34-34*- 32 I)      +0 % R
2000: (33-62 R)             +29% R
2004: (33-66 R)             +33% R
2008: (35-62 R)             +27% R
2012: (31-65 R)             +34% R
2016: (24-65 R)             +41% R

Although I lump Morrow County into the "Grain Belt" along the Columbia River gorge of Eastern Oregon, in many ways it is more similar to Umatilla County to the East, in terms of the demographic profile and occupational composition of the population.

It has a much large manufacturing component, heavily concentrated in the food processing industry, as well as one of the largest Latino populations of almost all counties in Oregon.

In theory, one might have expected the 2016 "Latino surge" to hit heavily here, but the reality is that even excepting the foreign national guest worker component of the population, a significant majority of the Latino population is <18 years old, and actually over 40% of the population of the <10 age bracket.

As much as 50% of the county population is likely Migratory and season workers and family members under H-2B visas working in the agricultural and food processing industries....

Let's take a stroll through the precincts of Morrow County:

1.) Boardman--- Accounts for 25% of the voting population of the county and is 60% Latino.

The city economy is heavily dominated by potato processing manufacturing facilities....



This is the most heavily Democratic precinct in Morrow County...

Pres:

2012: (38-57 R)    +19 R
2016: (37-51 R)    +14 R   (+5% Dem Swing)

Note: Although the exact precincts might be slightly different, it is important to note, that Ross Perot actually won the City of Boardman in 1992:  (32 D- 33 R-34 I)

US Senate:

2010: (45-50 R)     +5 R
2014: (41-48 R)     +7 R
2016: (49-38 D)     +11 D

OR Gov:

2010: (31-62 R)     +31 R
2014: (35-58 R)     +23 R
2016: (40-52 R)     +12 R

Although it doesn't appear that a Latino surge made much difference at the Presidential level, in terms of increased support for the Democratic Pres candidate, it does appear that this played a factor at the US Senate and US Gov election level.... My suspicion is that Latino Millennials were more sympathetic to 3rd Party candidates at the Presidential level here, and that similar to another Latino majority city in Oregon, Woodburn, there was a significant dropoff in Republican support without a corresponding increase in Democratic support. Of course, some of that might be that Anglos that backed Obama in '12 swung towards Trump in these precincts and were offset by increased Latino support for Clinton.

2.) Irrigon---- Includes the City of Irrigon and possibly part of the surrounding area and is 33% of the Voting Population....

The City is in the NE part of the County along the Columbia River, and is a mainly a food and agricultural feed processing town.

Pop 2.1k.... 38% Latino... MHI $50.8k,

Relative Occupations: 11.6% Material Handling, 8.1% Farming, 2.8% Firefighting, 13.6% Production, 7.6% Transportation, 5.8% Repair.

Relative Industries- 14.5% Agriculture, 0.4% Oil/Gas/Mining, 10% Transportation, 25% Manufacturing, 1.4% Utilities, 5.9% Government, 13.9% Retail



US Pres:

2012: (34- 63 R)        +31 R
2016: (24- 66 R)        +42 R      (+11% Rep Swing)

So interestingly enough a complete collapse in Democratic support between '12 and '16, with only a marginal Republican gain....

Bonus--- 1992---  (34-27-38   Dem-Rep-Perot)

US Sen:

2010:  (44-49 R)        +5 R
2014:  (37-54 R)        +17 R
2016:  (40-48 R)        +8 R

US Gov:

2010:  (33-61 R)         +28 R
2014:  (31-63 R)         +32 R
2016:  (30-63 R)         +33 R

3.)  Lexington and surrounding areas----  (8% of County Votes)

Squarely located within the Grain Belt of Central Morrow County, it is not only much more heavily Anglo than the Columbia River parts of the County to the North, but additionally the area is not only less dependent upon a foreign national labor force (Mechanized farming vs labor intensive agriculture) but additionally grain as a commodity can at least be stored until market values recover, unlike more perishable products such as dairy and fruits/vegetables.

The collapse of domestic agricultural pricing and a glut of product within the domestic US Market, has led many farmers and agricultural producers (Particularly those on the West Coast of the US) to attempt to increase exports to the rapidly growing markets of Asia, which is why I am so perplexed at "Dairy Country" in particular swinging hard towards Trump, and to some extent the grain producing farmers as well throughout the country....



US PRES:

2012: (19-76 R)            +57 R
2016: (12-79 R)            +67 R     (+10% Rep Swing)

1992: (29-46-26)     D-R-Perot)201

So, just a few years after Dukakis did extremely well in the "Grain Belt" of America, including North-Central Oregon, the Dakotas, etc.... we still see a fairly decent Democratic Presidential chunk of the vote here....

US SEN:

2010:    (30-67 R)      +37 R
2014:    (21-69 R)      +47 R
2016:    (29-60 R)      +31 R


OR GOV:

2010:  (14-83 R)     +69 R
2014:  (15-82 R)     +67 R
2016:  (12-79 R)     +67 R

4.) Ione- 8% of County Vote

Similar story to Lexington and class small town iconic Americana as a local small town that supports a wider agricultural what producing region in terms of basic services and retail opportunities...



US PRES:

2012: (22-78 R)       +56 R
2016: (18-73 R)       +55 R

US SEN:

2010: (40-58 R)      +18 R
2014: (27-66 R)      +39 R
2016: (43-52 R)      +9 R

Wow---- So Ron Wyden actually significantly shrinks the gap here between '10 and '16, while the precinct is overwhelmingly supporting Trump, albeit with a 4-5% drop in both the Democratic and Republican Presidential candidates level of support.

OR GOV:

2010:  (18-81R)     +63 R
2014:  (20-77 R)    +57 R
2016:  (21-76 R)    +55 R

5.) Heppner--- This includes a town of about 1.1k, as well as much of the rural part of the county, so once you amalgamate both you are looking at 26% of the County Vote.

It is the county seat, and although I don't have access to exact precinct boundaries in Morrow County, it appears to be much more heavily "cattle country" than "grain country".

The town and rural areas are fairly heavily White, even by Oregon standards, but the myth of Cowboys being mainly White, which is also heavily reinforced by "New Country" singer-songwriters and Country Music in general, definitely doesn't recognize the significant and growing population of Latinos working as farmhands in the ranching industry in much of the Western United States.

I do have to admit Garth and Alan Jackson are some of my favorite "New Country" artists (and am definitely showing my age there), but anyways I'll save the real Rodeo for when I hit Pendleton Oregon and Umatilla County...



US PRES:

2012: (28-68 R)        +40 R
2016: (19-72 R)        +63 R       (+23% R Swing)

1992: (38-34-28   D-R-Perot)    +4 D

So, Democrats actually used to do extremely well in Cowboy Country in Oregon, barely over 20 years ago.... A 50% vote collapse between '92 and '16.

US SEN:

2010:  (47-50R)     +3 R
2014:  (37-57 R)    +20 R
2016:  (41-52 R)    +11 R

So Oregon Cowboys apparently generally are chill with Ron Wyden, and even if we look at the Merkley brand (He appeals more to mill workers and rural timber communities in Western Oregon), he still bagged 2x the vote that HRC did in '16.

OR GOV:

2010:  (24-73R)     +59 R
2014:  (24-69 R)    +45 R
2016:  (21-72 R)    +51 R

There is definitely a path forward for Democrats in Morrow County, that combines both restoring margins among the heavily food processing plants of the Columbia River communities of Boardman and Irrigon, with a rapidly growing Latino majority), as well as performing well in the "Cowboy Belt" in the Southern Part of the County....

This is NOT just an Oregon scenario, but if Democrats can actually play well in places like Morrow County, which is more akin to Eastern Montana than most parts of Oregon in many ways, this opens up a much more competitive scenario.

Democrats at a national level can either chose to focus on suburban and exurban voters and consign themselves to a permanent US House and Senate minority status, or actually fight for rural and small town America, where there is a deep yearning for political leaders of both parties to actually address the specific needs of communities that have been left behind for decades.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #27: Wheeler County



Pop- 1.3k, MHI $38.0k/Yr, 94.3% White, 2.6% Latino, 52% is 60+ Years Old

Relative Occupations: 9.8% Farming, 2.3% Law Enforcement, 8.6% Construction, 19.6% Management, 6.1% Transportation, 8.4% Education

Relative Industries: 1.9% Oil, Gas, & Mining, 18.9% Agriculture, 11% Government, 5.1% Entertainment, 11.7% Construction, 13% Education

Although most Oregonians tend to think of the area because of the John Day Fossil Monument, and tourist related activities, historically the backbone of the county economy was more logging up through the late '70s and early '80s, as well as non-forestry related agriculture, which is still a significant element of the counties economy and workforce. As is often the case in smaller isolated rural communities, government related employment is a disproportionate share of the counties workforce. Tourism is certainly a component, but is often seasonal with people drawn to fishing and water recreation on the John Day River, the Fossil Beds National Monument areas, and the annual Memorial Day Rodeo in Spray, Oregon.

Politically, in recent years it has tended to be a fairly Republican County in Presidential and Statewide elections.

US Presidential--- Wheeler County

1988: (41% D- 55% R)                      +14 R
1992: (32% D- 42% R- 27% Perot)    +12 R
2000: (24% D- 69% R)                      +45 R
2004: (28% D- 70% R)                      +42 R
2008: (35% D- 61% R)                      +26 R
2012: (31% D- 64% R)                      +33 R
2016: (19% D- 72% R)                      +53 R

Let's take a look at the three precincts in the county for greater detail:

Fossil--- 47% of County Votes



Includes the largest town in the county Fossil (Pop 450) and likely some rural outskirts. The town used to be heavily dominated by the timber industry, with a company-owned mill town of Kinzoa located about 7 Miles East of town that operated between 1927 and 1978. At one point Fossil had a population of 800 people, and after the mill closed down the population collapsed by close to 50%.

US Presidential:

1992: 379 Votes---- (31% D- 39% R- 30% Perot)          +8 R
2004: 406 Votes---- (32% D- 60% R)                           +28 R
2008: 352 Votes---  (43% D- 52% R)                            +9 R
2012: 400 Votes--   (38% D- 58% R)                            +20 R
2016: 382 Votes--   (22% D- 66% R)                            +44 R    (+24% R Swing)

US Senate

2004: (63 26 R)                                                       +37 D
2008: (32-59 R)                                                       +27 R
2010: (58-39 D)                                                       +19 D
2014: (47-47 Tie)                                                     +0 D/R
2016: (53-37 D)                                                       +16 D

OR-Gov:

2006: (37-49 R)                                                       +12 R
2010: (36-59 R)                                                       +23 R
2014: (38-57 R)                                                       +19 R
2016: (29-64 R)                                                       +35 R

Mitchell--- (25% of County Total)



2nd largest town in the county. It started as a stagecoach stop down back in the mid 1800s on a route between The Dalles and the gold mining areas of Eastern Oregon, and later shifted into being an agricultural and cattle area, along with a major logging company Hudspeth Land & Logging company being a major employer until the 1980s.

US Presidential

1992: 243 Votes (30 D- 44.0 R- 26 Perot)                        +14 R
2004: 267 Votes (27 D- 67 R)                                          +40 R
2008: 230 Votes (33 D- 63 R)                                          +30 R
2012: 232 Votes (32 D- 63 R)                                          +31 R
2016: 206 Votes (20 D- 74 R)                                         +54 R   (+23% R Swing)

US Senate:

2004: (49 D- 40 R)                                                          +9 D
2008: (26 D- 66 R)                                                          +40 R
2010: (37 D- 54 R)                                                          +17 R
2014: (41 D- 50 R)                                                          + 9 R
2016: (40 D- 56 R)                                                          +16 R

OR Gov:

2006: (29 D- 64 R)                             +35 R
2010: (29 D- 66 R)                             +37 R
2014: (29 D- 63 R)                             +34 R
2016: (22 D- 75 R)                             +53 R

Spray- Oregon (28% of County Vote)

Located along the John Day River, Spray is perhaps best known for its annual Memorial Day Rodeo. The local economy is heavily dependent on agriculture and livestock, and to a lesser extent tourism.



US Presidential:

1992: 229 Votes (34 D- 41 R- 20 Perot)                +7 R
2004: 243 Votes (18 D- 77 R)                               +59 R
2008: 230 Votes (24 D- 74 R)                               +50 R
2012: 226 Votes (19 D- 74 R)                               +53 R
2016: 230 Votes (12 D- 81 R)                               +69 R       (+16% R Swing)

US Senate:

2004:  (44 D- 42 R)          +2 D
2008:  (20 D- 71 R)          +51 R
2010:  (28 D- 69 R)          +41 R
2014:  (29 D- 57 R)          +38 R
2016:  (33 D- 60 R)          +27 R

OR Gov:

2006: (26 D- 64 R)           +38 R
2010: (18 D- 78 R)           +60 R
2014: (16 D- 75 R)           +59 R
2016: (16 D- 76 R)           +60 R


1.) So one of the items that is interesting about Wheeler county is the extent to which Democratic US Senate candidates outperform Presidential candidates. The one exception was 2008, when you had an incumbent Republican Senator from Eastern Oregon, who performed quite well throughout the region, although ultimately losing to Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley.

2.) The swing towards Trump was astronomical between '12 and '16 (23-24%) in both the most Democratic Precinct in the County (Fossil) as well as in Mitchell...

Fossil went from only +9 R in '08 to +44 R in '16.... considering the propensity of the largest precinct in the county to frequently back Democrats for the US Senate, the key question is was the performance of Obama in 2008 an deviance from the norm, or is simply that a rural/ small-town precinct doesn't feel that they are getting the attention and their interests represented by Democratic US Presidential candidates...  Jeff Merkley tied the precinct in 2014 in an off year election, so its pretty clear that populist progressive Democrats can play ball pretty well out here.

3.) As I have commented elsewhere, Democratic Gubernatorial results are generally abysmal in many rural parts of Oregon... That is the upstate/downstate dynamic always in play for those types of statewide elections...  the fact that HRC even did worse than the Democratic candidate for Governor of Oregon out here is pretty telling.

4.) Interestingly enough, there appears to have been a minor down-ballot impact for the US Senate race in the two more "Democratic" precincts in the County comparing Wyden's 2010 vs 2016 results, but in the most Republican precinct (Spray) there was actually a +14% D swing between '10 and '16.... Not sure exactly what to make of that, but it is certainly noteworthy.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update # 28: Baker County Part I---- Pop 16.1k



Baker County was essentially uninhabited until 1861, was the exception of small Native American population and travelers heading West along the Oregon trail, until the discovery of Gold led to a major population boom, with the historic ghost town of Auburn boosting 5,000 residents within a few years of the discovery.

Although the Gold Rush was short lived, there was still mining in the area, it led to a regional population boom as a transportation corridor starting with the statecoaches and later a major railroad line, and by 1900 Baker City had a population larger than that of Spokane or Boise within the "Inland Empire" region.

It is also worthy to note that Baker County is part of the "Mormon Belt" of Eastern Oregon, likely because the Oregon Railway and Navigation Company that built a line to Baker City, a few years later attracted the Oregon Lumber Company to Baker City. The company was owned by Mormons from Salt Lake City, and likely played a major role in attracting Mormons to the region over between the late 1880s and early 1920s. Currently almost 9% of Baker County are LDS members.

Today, Baker County still has a large agricultural component, and although logging is a pale shadow of what it was even 30-40 years ago, still is a part of the counties economy, as well as a mixture of tourism, government services, and hospitality related activities, as well as serving as a "regional" retail hub.

Ethnically: 92.3% White, 3.5% Latino

Income- MHI $41.5k/Yr

Age- 37% 60+ Years

Relative Occupations: 3.7% Social Svcs, 1.2% Law Enforcement, 2.1% Health Care, 2.7% Farming, 4.4% Transportation, 5.3% Construction, 7.0% Education, 1.2% Fire Fighting, 3.4% Repair, 11.7% Management, 5.1% Personal Care, 14.6% Administration

Relative Industries: 0.6% Oil, Gas, & Mining, 2.7% Utilities, 16.3% Agriculture, 3.4% Information, 6.1% Government, 12.9% Retail, 7.8% Hospitality, 5.7% Construction

Politically, at a Presidential and generally statewide level Baker County has been reliably Republican for quite a few decades, although this was not always the case.

1988: (42 D- 54 R)                        +12 R
1992: (32 D- 38 R- 29 Perot)         +6 R
2000: (27 D- 68 R)                        +41 R
2004: (29 D- 69 R)                        +40 R
2008: (32 D- 64 R)                        +32 R
2012: (28 D- 68 R)                        +40 R
2016: (20 D- 71 R)                        +51 R

So doesn't look like many McCain/Romney voters switching over to Clinton, but it does look like there were a number of Obama '08 and/or '12 voters that went Trump in '16. Again, most of the loss of the Democratic Candidate vote appears to have gone for 3rd Party candidates....

US Senate:

2002: (21-76 R)                       +55 R
2004: (50-46 D)                       +4 D
2008: (26-66 R)                       +40 R
2010: (40-55 R)                       +15 R
2014: (33-60 R)                       +27 R
2016: (39-54 R)                       +15 R

So note that with the exception of the '02 and '08 US Senate races where Republican Gordon Smith from Eastern Oregon was on the ballot, generally as a whole the county is much more receptive to Democratic US Senate candidates than Presidential or Gubernatorial Candidates. Also, Democratic Senator Merkley did not perform nearly as well as Wyden out here, he still exceeded the level of support of Democratic Presidential candidates from '92 to '16.

Let's take a look at some of the individual communities in the county...

1.) Baker City--- Pop 9.8k--- MHI $37.2k/Yr--- 55% of County Voters



One of the largest cities in Eastern Oregon both historically and to the present, Baker City's is now only the 3rd largest City in that part of the state, lagging behind Pendleton and La Grande.

It did place in the top two slot for "the coolest small town in America", because of the City's rich history, and proximity to some extremely rugged, remote and beautiful location's in the Western United States.

http://www.oregonlive.com/travel/index.ssf/2016/05/is_baker_city_the_coolest_smal.html

As a major regional center, it's occupations by industry are more heavily concentrated in health care, retail, and hospitality (43% of the workforce), and a smaller than statewide average, but growing manufacturing sector, with 4 employers with a total of 450 employees in the mfg sector.

US Presidential:

1992: (32 D- 38 R- 29 Perot)                           +6 R
2004: (32 D- 67 R)                                          +35 R
2008: (34 D- 60 R)                                          +26 R
2012: (31 D- 66 R)                                          +35 R
2016: (22 D- 68 R)                                          +46 R

US Senate

2004: (53 D- 43 R)                                          +10 D
2008: (34 D- 60 R)                                          +26 R
2010: (44 D- 52 R)                                          + 8 R
2014: (36 D- 56 R)                                          +20 R
2016: (41 D- 50 R)                                          + 9 R

OR Gov

2006: (37 D- 56 R)                                         + 19 R
2010: (30 D- 65 R)                                         + 35 R
2014: (30 D- 64 R)                                         + 34 R
2016: (26 D- 66 R)                                         + 40 R

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #28: Baker County--- Part II

So time to take a stroll through the other 45% of Baker County, which is pretty much all small town and rural to see what's going on in various other communities.

First stop, the most Democratic part of Baker County over the past few decades.

2.) Huntington, Oregon--- Pop 500--- 2.7% of County Vote



A small town right over the Snake River border between Oregon and Idaho in the SE part of the county on Highway I-84. For years the local economy was dominated by a local cement plant, which was built during the Great Depression to supply cement to the Owyhee Dam over the Snake River, and after for various other regional commercial purposes. That Mill was shut down in the '70s once the Limestone ran out, and a new plant was built a few miles West of Town, while the old one became both a DEQ and EPA hazardous waste site, as well as inspiring numerous legions of ghost hunters to investigate the mysterious happenings at this old facility.

http://archive.lyza.com/2009/09/29/weekend-abandoned-cement-plant-in-lime-oregon/

Tourism has always been an element of the local economy, mainly as a result of some pretty dank fishing to be had off of this portion of the Snake River, as well as "base camp" to explore some of the Wild & Scenic areas nearby.

Now Weed tourism is on the rise, since Huntington is the only place within 250 Miles, within Oregon where one allows recreational Cannabis shops, not to mention to constant stream of visitors from Prohibitionist Idaho, earning it the nickname, as the "busiest weed store in Oregon"

http://www.portlandmercury.com/cannabuzz/2017/03/15/18893138/a-small-oregon-town-triumphs-with-cannabis

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2017/03/pot_sales_to_idaho_residents_b.html

US Presidential:

1992: (44 D- 25 R- 30 Perot)           +19 D
2004: (45 D- 53 R)                          +8 R
2008: (41 D- 49 R)                          +8 R
2012: (41 D- 51 R)                          +10 R
2016: (19 D- 70 R)                          +51 R    (+41% R Swing).....   Damn!!! Biggest in Oregon???

US Senate:

2004: (66 D- 30 R)                          +36 D
2008: (41 D-49 R)                           +8 R
2010: (52 D- 40 R)                          +12 D
2014: (49 D- 42 R)                          +7 D
2016: (44 D- 37 R)                          +7 D

OR GOV:

2006: (44 D- 42 R)                         +2 D
2010: (33 D- 57 R)                         +24 R
2014: (40 D- 53 R)                         +13 R
2016: (29 D- 60 R)                         +31 R

3.) Pine Valley Rural--- 6.7% of County Vote



This is a rural precinct located in the NE part of the County, starting outside of the small town of Halfway, Oregon. It's basically a gateway to the Wild & Scenic Hell's Canyon area, and there is plethora of year round outdoor activities from white-water rafting in the Summer to snowboarding in the Winter.

It is a precinct that is sometimes more receptive to Democratic candidates than many others in the county, and appears to include both the small town of Halfway and surrounding area.

US President:

1992: (39 D- 28 R- 33 Perot)          +11 D.... Perot actually placed 2nd here which is notable
2004: (38 D- 60 R)                         +22 R     (2nd most Dem Pct in the County)
2008: (39 D- 59 R)                         +20 R
2012: (39 D- 57 R)                         +18 R     (2nd most Dem Pct in County)
2016: (28 D- 63 R)                         +35 R     (Most Dem Pct in cty)

US Senate:

2004: (53 D- 43 R)                        +10 D
2008: (35 D- 58 R)                        +23 R
2010: (40 D- 54 R)                        +14 R
2014: (44 D- 50 R)                        +6 R
2016: (43 D- 50 R)                        +7 R

OR GOV:

2006: (45 D- 50 R)                        +5 R   (Most Dem Pct)
2010: (40 D- 54 R)                        +14 R (Most Dem Pct)
2014: (37 D- 60 R)                        +23 R
2016: (29 D- 63 R)                        +34 R

ok.... time to take a peak at the most Republican rural precincts in the county....

4.) Durkee, Herford, Keating & Unity (4.6% of County Vote)

A. Durkee- Small community a few miles NW of Huntington, and home to Ash Grove Cement, where high levels of mercury in the concrete are a major Federal issue, likely caused by natural geological conditions.



US Pres:

1992: (37 D- 33 R- 30 Perot)            +4 D
2004: (16 D- 84 R)                           +68 R
2008: (8 D- 82 R)                             +74 R
2012: (7 D- 83 R)                             +76 R
2016: (5 D- 94 R)                             +89 R

US Senate:

2004: (40 D- 55 R)                          +15 R
2008: (13 D- 76 R)                          +63 R
2010: (19 D- 73 R)                          +54 R
2014: (14 D- 82 R)                          +68 R
2016: (13 D- 81 R)                          +68 R





B.) Hereford--- Ranching Country. Precinct named after local ranch



US PRES:

1992: (6 D- 68 R- 26 Perot)              +62 R
2004: (10 D- 86 R)                           +76 R
2008: (9 D- 79 R)                             +70 R
2012: (6 D- 86 R)                             +80 R
2016: (5 D- 89 R)                             +84 R

US SEN:

2004: (18 D- 78 R)                          +60 R
2008: (9 D-   79 R)                          +70 R
2010: (16 D- 82 R)                          +66 R
2014: (7 D-   87 R)                          +80 R
2016: (20 D- 71 R)                          +51 R



C.) Keating--- rural livestock & animal feed pct outside of Baker City



1992: (16 D- 50 R- 34 Perot)             +34 R
2004: (10 D- 88 R)                            +78 R
2008: (15 D- 83 R)                            +68 R
2012: (14 D- 81 R)                            +67 R
2016: (9 D-   81 R)                            +72 R

US SEN:

2004: (29 D- 67 R)                          +38 R
2008: (9 D-   90 R)                          +81 R
2010: (25 D- 72 R)                          +47 R
2014: (19 D- 78 R)                          +59 R
2016: (22 D- 73 R)                          +51 R

D.) Unity--- Small ranching community in the SW Part of the County



1992: (28 D- 42 R- 29 Perot)             +14 R
2004: (17 D- 83 R)                            +66 R
2008: (22 D- 70 R)                            +48 R
2012: (17 D- 75 R)                            +58 R
2016: (7  D-  91 R)                            +84 R

US SEN:

2004: (40 D- 61 R)                          +21 R
2008: (17 D- 81 R)                          +64 R
2010: (30 D- 65 R)                          +35 R
2014: (13 D- 85 R)                          +72 R
2016: (15 D- 81 R)                          +66 R

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #29- Umatilla County--- Pop 76.3k- MHI $ 48.4k/Yr



Many, myself included were curious to see what impact the large Latino population might have in the 2016 Presidential Election results....

The largest county by population located solely within the 2nd Congressional District of Oregon, other than Deschutes County.

It is county heavily dominated by agriculture, with 1,603 farms, roughly 60% cropland and 30% pasture land, with almost 50% of the farms less than 50 acres.

It ranks 3rd in Oregon for total value of agricultural products sold, 1st the State in terms of grains, 2nd for vegetables, and 4th for sheep/goats and horses.

Additionally, it has a large number of agricultural product processing plants that are a significant amount of both the labor force, and local economy, processing a wide variety of agricultural products from Eatern Washington, Eastern Oregon, and even the Snake River areas of Idaho.

Fully 10.4% of the jobs are in the agricultural industry, 7.3% in the Governmental industry, 5.1% in Transportation, and 12.9% in Retail.

In terms of relative occupations, 7% is farming, 2.2% law enforcement, 5.5% in material movement, and 5.2% in transportation.

Ethnically, it has one of the highest percentages of Latinos of almost any county in Oregon, 24% of the county, as well as a large Native American population centered around the Umatilla Indian Reservation East of Pendleton, and only 69% of the population is Anglo.

However, it should be noted, that it has an estimated 9.9k of Migrant/Seasonal Workers/Dependents in the county, the vast majority of whom are under H2-A Visas, as farmer and food processing facilities have expanded their requests to deal with a local shortage of labor for these jobs.

Also, a large number of Latino US Citizens are under the age of 18, as well as Adult Latino Citizens who work in the the fields frequently moving from region to region to harvest the crops, and much less likely to participate in elections as a result.

Umatilla County is also part of the "Mormon Belt" of Eastern Oregon, and almost 10% of the population are estimated to be LDS members, including the Last Republican Senator from Oregon, Gordon Smith, who is actually related to the family Udall political family of the Western United States with many prominent elected officials over the decades.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_H._Smith

Umatilla County will be interesting to watch over the next few decades, since although for the most part there is scant evidence of a massive Latino voting surge, as the next generation comes of age--- the sons and daughters of fieldworkers and food factory workers, to see how the county shifts politically.

Politically, although Umatilla County has shifted Republican at a Presidential Level since 1988, their vote share has also remained impressively stagnant all the way between 2000 and 2016.

So.... let's take a look at the "boring stuff" Presidential, US Senate, and OR Governor results at the County level going back a few cycles.... which most of y'all can look up on the Elections tab, but again I'll save everyone the trouble and just make a few lists, before delving into Precinct level data in Part II, and maybe even part III, since I just found a bunch of Oregon Precinct data that I thought I had tossed a decade or so back.

US President:

1988: (44 D- 54 R)               +10 R
1992: (35 D- 36 R- 29 Perot)     + 1 R
2000: (34 D- 61 R)               +27 R
2004: (34 D- 65 R)               +31 R
2008: (37 D- 60 R)               +23 R
2012: (35 D- 62 R)               +27 R
2016: (28 D- 62 R)               +34 R

US Senate:

1990: (43 D- 57 R)              +14 R

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Oregon,_1990

1992: (36 D- 64 R)              +28 R

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Oregon,_1992

2002: (24 D- 72 R)              +48 R
2004: (58 D- 38 R)              +20 D
2008: (24 D- 72 R)              +48 R
2010: (42 D- 54 R)              +12 R
2014: (36 D- 57 R)              +21 R
2016: (42 D- 48 R)              +6  R

OR GOV:

1986: (47 D- 53 R)             +6 R
1990: (40 D- 42 R- 16 OCA)     +2 R

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_Citizens_Alliance

https://oregonencyclopedia.org/articles/oregon_citizens_alliance/#.WQva5-Xyu00

2002: (38 D- 58 R)             +20 R
2006: (38 D- 56 R)             +18 R
2010: (32 D- 64 R)             +32 R
2014: (29 D- 65 R)             +36 R
2016: (32 D- 61 R)             +29 R

Bonus---

1990: Ballot Initiative #8: Banning Abortion with (3 exceptions)

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Prohibition_of_Abortion_and_Exceptions,_Measure_8_(1990)

36% Yes--- 64% No

1990: Ballot Initiative #10: Parental Notification for Minors performing Abortions

53% Yes--- 47% No

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Notice_to_Minor%E2%80%99s_Parents_Before_an_Abortion,_Measure_10_(1990)

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #29- Umatilla County--- Part II

Time to take a stroll around the neighborhood and take a look at what's going on in various precincts, cities, and communities.

This is a county where not so long ago, even within the past decade or so, that Anglos were frequently comfortable voting for Liberal Democrats for President and US Senate....

So, stop #1 on the Railroad:

1. Pendleton---- Pop 16.8k (23.9% of County Vote in '16).



Pendelton used to be the largest City in the County, and although it was just recently surpassed by Hermiston in total Population, still has significantly more voters, mainly since the local workforce isn't nearly as dependent upon Guestworkers under H2-A Visas, as in the the other cities in the County.

MHI- $47.1k/Yr, 83.0% Anglo, 8.1% Latino.

Relative Occupations: Law Enforcement (3.2%), Fire Fighting (2.1%), Legal (2.1%), Social Services (3.7%), Facilities (5.2%), Material Moving & Transportation bag another 8% of the workfore.

Relative Industries: Government (11.6%), Entertainment (3.4%), Hospitality (10.5%), Health Care (16.2%), Education (8.9%).

The largest employer is the Eastern Oregon Correctional Institution, and there still no privatized prisons in Oregon....ugh

Although many outside of Oregon associate Pendleton with the Pedleton Round-Up, one of the largest PRCA rodeos in the Western United States and mentioned in several the lyrics of serveral Country Music artists of the '90s, most Oregonians associate Pendelton more with the State Prison, which is the largest employer in the City

So let's take a look at various election returns in the largest "vote-bank" in the County....

US President:

1988: (46 D- 54 R)                +8 R
1992: (37 D- 38 R- 25 Perot)      +1 R
2000: (39 D- 56 R)                +17 R
2004: (38 D- 60 R)                +22 R
2008: (44 D- 54 R)                +10 R
2012: (41 D- 56 R)                +15 R
2016: (33 D- 56 R)                +23 R

US Senate:

1990: (39 D- 61 R)                +22 R
1992: (36 D- 63 R)                +27 R
2002: (26 D- 71 R)                +45 R
2004: (68 D- 29 R)                +39 D
2008: (24 D- 73 R)                +49 R
2010: (52 D- 45 R)                +7  D
2014: (43 D- 49 R)                +6  R
2016: (50 D- 40 R)                +10 D

OR Governor:

1990: (45 D- 42 R- 11 OCA)        +3 D
2002: (47 D- 50 R)                +3 R
2010: (39 D- 57 R)                +18 R
2014: (36 D- 58 R)                +22 R
2016: (37 D- 56 R)                +19 R

So interestingly enough the Democratic share of the Presidential vote has remained fairly consistently in the 40% range from 2000 onwards, and the Republican share running about 56%. About 2-3% of the voters appear to account for the various margin shifts over the years, with '16 being more notable for Democratic vote share going to 3rd Party voters and Republican support remaining at '12 levels.

I would have suspected Pendleton to potentially see a larger swing, since it is the Whitest City in the County, and the larger population of individuals employed at the State Prison, which was one of the groups that rhetorically Trumped addressed directly during the GE.

At the US Senate level, we see some pretty wild swings.... If anything the numbers seem to show it swinging more Democratic at this level.... There could potentially be a pro-incumabant slant going on here, and obviously in '02 and '08 having a local Republican Senator on the ballot explains some of those outliers.

At the Gubernatorial level, the Dems actually held a fairly impressive vote share in the 1990s and early 2000s, but from 2010 onwards it has held constant in the 36-39% vote range, as have the Republicans at the 56-58% of the vote range.

I suspect that the signifant presence of government related employment, and more specifically State employees is a factor here, since these workers are represented by collective bargaining agreements, and there is no such thing as a privatized prison in Oregon....

This is after all the home of the Prison Blues product line, which is likely the only source remaining of Blue Jeans proudly manufactured in the US, where inmates both earn a living wage, while also reduce the cost to taxpayers of incarceration.

http://www.prisonblues.net/

Stop #2 on the Railroad....

2.) Hermiston-  Pop 16.9k--- MHI $48.6k--- (18.9% of County Vote in '16)



Not only is Hermison now the largest City in the County, it is also 32.7% Latino and only 64.3% Anglo, so is definitely a place to watch going forward to see if and how Demographic changes in this part of NE Oregon (As well as similar type communities in Eastern Washington and Western Idaho) start impacting electoral coalitions and results.

Again, a large number of these people are <18, and are 32-35% Latino, and those 18-25 running 35-38% Latino, so its pretty clear that there are potential impacts moving forward, depending upon how much of this younger population is American Citizens versus the children of Foreign National Guestworkers filling employment gaps in the neighboring farms (Watermelons big) and food processing plants.

Economically, the largest employer is ConAgra Foods with 1.3k employees.... This was recently spun off and is by now likely a Lamb Weston Plant, that helps provide us with a range of frozen potato related products, harvested from throughout the wider region.

http://www.eastoregonian.com/eo/local-news/20160922/lamb-weston-on-track-to-split-from-conagra-foods

Because of its proximity to both North-South and East-West Interstate Highways I-82 and I-84, it not only has a significant number of individuals working in transportation related occupations and industries, but also a major Wal-Mart distribution Center, which appears to have about the same Gross Square Footage (GSF) as the distribution center that I currently work at elsewhere....

Relative Occupations: Farming (7.8%), Law Enforcement (2.2%), Material Movement (5.6%), Transportation (5.1%), Production (6.8%)
Relative Industries: Agriculture (11.8%), Utilities (1.4%), Government (7.1%), Transportation (5.1%), Retail (12.5%)

Hermiston also appears to have a significantly larger than average LDS population, compared to not only the County within the "Mormon Belt" of Oregon, but also compared to any other city within the county. Granted this data at a City level is virtually impossible to access, but it does make sense considering the strategic location, at a time where members of the Church facing pogroms in Missourri, and worried about a stable place to practice their religion, started to look at the Oregon Territory as a place where they could live without religious persecution.

Although from my limited research and historical understanding, and I did find a link somewhere to a pretty awesome eBook (Thinking it was about 1,000 pages) involving the history of the Mormonism in Oregon from a scholar a member of the faith, unfortunately it didn't go into as much detail as I would have liked regarding Eastern Oregon in particular...

However, from a few people I have talked to more acquainted with Church practices, the numbers below are pretty darn impressive for a town of 18k.... Would welcome any input on this matter

http://www.ldschurchtemples.com/statistics/unit/hermiston-oregon-stake/

http://tdn.com/lifestyles/mormon-food-storage-warehouse-sees-business-jump/article_dc06fdb4-35c6-59b8-b69b-d07e884158d4.html

So ok--- how did a fast growing city a 30 minute drive to the 4th largest Metro Area in Washington State (Tri-Cities) vote over the years?

US President:

1988: (48 D- 52 R)             +4 R
1992: (38 D- 32 R- 29 Perot)   +6 D
2000: (39 D- 56 R)             +17 R
2004: (37 D- 62 R)             +25 R
2008: (41 D- 57 R)             +16 R
2012: (37 D- 59 R)             +22 R
2016: (31 D- 56 R)             +25 R

US Senate:

1990: (46 D- 54 R)            +8 R
1992: (37 D- 63 R)            +26 R
2002: (27 D- 71 R)            +44 R
2004: (58 D- 38 R)            +20 D
2008: (28 D- 68 R)            +40 R
2010: (43 D- 52 R)            +9 R
2014: (40 D- 53 R)            +13 R
2016: (44 D- 45 R)            +1 R

OR GOV:

1990: (42 D- 36 R- 21 OCA)    +6 D
2002: (39 D- 57 R)            +18 R
2010: (35 D- 61 R)            +26 R
2014: (32 D- 62 R)            +30 R
2016: (36 D- 56 R)            +20 R

Hmmm, so this is pretty interesting...

So looking at the Presidential numbers, Hermiston was more Democratic than even Pendleton in '88 and '92, with a much larger level of Perot support.

The Republican numbers declined 6% between '04, almost faster than Jimmy Hoffa's concrete boots when he was tossed into the Joisey River....

So jokes aside, one must certainly wonder what 2020 will look like at the Presidential level, considering that it is extremely unlikely that Clinton will be the nominee, and deal with major 3rd Party voting among Millennials.

Latino Millennials are a huge proportion of the population here, so went to the same High Schools, played on the same sports teams, live in the same neighborhoods, and their parents work in many of the same large facilities

I don't see 41% at a ceiling anymore in Hermiston, I think it will likely closer to the floor for the next Democratic nominee...

At the US Senate level, you see a similar phenomenon as elsewhere within the county of insane margins for the home-town Republican in '02 and '08.... what is extremely interesting looking at the results, is the 40-44% Democratic results between '10 and '16...

In fact, I'm really wondering to what extent the backlash among some voters against Trump was responsible for the 8% towards Wyden in '16, or if '10 was more of a variance caused by a backlash against ACA/ "ObamaCare" and '16 was more of a realignment in favor of an incumbent Democrat, who is well known locally, and has paid attention to his local constituents on an annual basis.

The Gubernatorial results are likewise fascinating, with the Republican candidate performing at a lower level than even in '02....  this certainly makes one wonder if their was a down-ballot impact against Republican candidates, among infrequent voters (Latino voter impact???) many of whom don't vote except during GE years and either skip down-ballot races, or just go with name recognition... IDK, but still, something to ponder and take a closer look at.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update # 29- Umatilla County Part III

Milton-Freewater--- Pop 7.1k- MHI $33.1k/Yr-- (6.4% of County Vote)




The dry dusty town on the plains on the edge of the Blue Mountain Range in the Northeastern paper of the county has long been an agricultural and food processing region.

For awhile in the 1960s and 1970s, sweet pea canneries grown from local areas were the major employers in town, however these all closed down by the early '80s as a result of crop prices and decreased local production. The branding of the town was the annual Pea Festival which chnaged to the Corn Festival for a few years, before shifting to the "Muddy Frogwater Country" with an annual festival that included frog jumping contests.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/20/us/a-town-in-oregon-decides-it-is-going-to-the-frogs.html?_r=0

http://www.union-bulletin.com/news/local_governments/milton_freewater/rocks-upstages-muddy-frogwater/article_a40c131a-bf99-11e5-b7a9-0f362e91b22b.html

Vineyards are now rapidly becoming one of the major local area attractions, as well as a source of local employment.

The largest employers within the city was the Sykes Call Center, that not so long ago had 550 employees at their Milton Freewater facility, before a major layoff in 2010, and additional reductions in the past year.

http://www.oregonbusiness.com/article/archives-2006-2009/item/5642-hoping-for-the-best-ignoring-the-worst

http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/sykes-enterprises-to-close-oregon-call-center-but-let-employees-work-at/2195065


If we look at relative occupations, we see it is still heavily dependent on: farming (15.0%), food services (11.7%), material movement (4.6%), production (10.6%), entertainment (3.9%)

Relative Industries show a similar pattern: agricultural (13.1 %), administrative (7.6%), wholesale (5.0%), hospitaility (12.0%), retail (12.1%).

Ethnically, it has one of the highest percentages of Latinos in not only the region, but most places in Oregon as well (Woodburn excepting), many guestworkers under H2-A visas working in the farms and vineyards of the surrounding area.

44.1% Anglo, 53.4% Latino.

http://www.goodfruit.com/red-tape-keeps-some-workers-out/


Despite many Latinos being foreign nationals, and a large population under 18 of Latino US Nationals, and many adults seasonal without a fixed residency, this is still a place where we might still expect to see some Democratic swing in 2016


Ok--- time to roll the numbers to see how this city has been voting since 1988.


US President:

1988: (45 D- 55 R)                +10 R
1992: (38 D- 34 R- 28 Perot)      + 4 D
2000: (34 D- 61 R)                +27 R
2004: (34 D- 65 R)                +31 R
2008: (40 D- 59 R)                +19 R
2012: (38 D- 59 R)                +21 R
2016: (34 D- 54 R)                +20 R

US Senate:

1990: (41 D- 59 R)               +18 R
1992: (37 D- 63 R)               +26 R
2002: (25 D- 73 R)               +48 R
2004: (54 D- 43 R)               +11 D
2008: (31 D- 64 R)               +33 R
2010: (43 D- 51 R)               + 8 R
2014: (36 D- 56 R)               +20 R
2016: (41 D- 46 R)               + 5 R

OR GOV:

1990: (39 D- 51 R- 8 OCA)        +12 R
2002: (39 D- 58 R)               +19 R
2010: (36 D- 59 R)               +23 R
2014: (32 D- 62 R)               +30 R
2016: (39 D- 52 R)               +13 R

So, interestingly enough Trump appears to have captured the lowest percentage of support for a Republican Presidential candidate, since before 1988 in Milton Freewater, with the exception of the 1992 election, which was essentially virtually a three person race out here.

Although Clinton was not the net beneficiary due to a large 3rd Party defection, this should definitely be an area of concern for Republicans if this trend continues.

It also does appear that Trump's lack of popularity here may also have contributed to one of the lowest levels of support a Republican Senatorial candidate has received here in recent decades.

If we look at the Gubernatorial election results, a similar pattern appears, which really potentially looks like a "downballot" impact in levels of Republican Party support.


Umatilla City--- Pop 6.9k--- MHI $49.8k--- (4.2% of County Vote)




This sleepy town in the NW part of the County where the Umatilla River meets the Columbia River, has long been associated nationally and regionally with the nearby Umatilla Chemical Depot, which was one of only a handful of facilities within the United States that stored our vast arsenal of chemical weapons.

However, the actual economy of the city has long been dominated by transportation related activities, because of the Port of Umatilla and various transportation companies that are based out of the Port, agricultural workers that live here that work in the nearby watermelon & onion fields along prime agricultural land in the Columbia Basin, as well as manufacturing and food processing companies. Additionally, the Two Rivers Correctional Institution is also a major employer within the City.

Relative Occupations: Farming (19.3%), Material Movement (10.8%), Fire Fighting (2.4%), Transportation (7.7%), Production (13.3%)

Relative Industries: Agriculture (24.2%), Utilities (2.3%), Transportation (8.4%), Wholesale (5.8%), Manufacturing (19.8%).

As to be expected in this major agricultural producing region, there is a large Latino Population 24.3% of the Population according to US Statistical Atlas, and the US Census Bureau listing it at almost 44%.

I'm not sure the exact reason for the variance, although the US Statistical Atlas does list the "Non-White" population at 44%, so I would tend to go with the latter number and chalk the difference to the methodologies used to break down the data, and also individuals with mixed family heritage/identities.

If you look at the population under 18, it is over 50% Latino, but the population aged 35-55 is only about 20% Latino, and that number drops to a very small % for the 55+ aged group with a relatively large mixed/other category, which around here can indicate a significant Native American popoulation, which makes sense considering the relative proximity to the Umatilla Indian Reservation.

Also, I'm not exactly sure how the Census Bureau classifies inmates at correctional facilities, so that can also potentially skew numbers when you look at voter turnout vs population, as well as a large youth population, and large H2-A guestworker community.


So what does the City of Umatilla tell us when we look at election results over the past 30 years?

US Presidential:

1988: (47 D- 53 R)               +6 R
1992: (39 D- 28 R- 33 Perot)     +11 D    (Perot actually convincingly placed 2nd!!!)
2000: (40 D- 55 R)               +15 R
2004: (39 D- 59 R)               +20 R
2008: (43 D- 55 R)               +12 R
2012: (39 D- 57 R)               +18 R
2016: (34 D- 56 R)               +22 R

So overall Democratic numbers look fairly consistent in the 39-40% range between '92 and '12, with the exception of an Obama bump in '08.... A good chunk of the Dukakis '88 voters appear to have broke for Perot in '92 and drifted over to W. in 2000. If we look at the Republican numbers, Trump only performed about average for a Republican from 2000 to 2016, and the only shift in the margins was a significant drop off of Democratic voters towards 3rd Party candidates.

I'm kind of wondering if there was a bit of an offset here, with some swings towards Trump among Anglo Prison workers and Truckers/Transportation sector workers, and a swing towards Clinton among Latino voters, but with many of the younger Latinos breaking heavily for 3rd Party candidates, just as many other Oregonians under the age of 35.

US Senate:

1990: (47 D- 53 R)             +6  R    (Basically tracking the '88 Pres numbers)
1992: (61 D- 39 R)             +22 D
2002: (34 D- 63 R)             +29 R    (The most Democratic City in the County against a "hometown" favorite)
2004: (54 D- 42 R)             +12 D    (One of the least Democratic cities in the County)
2008: (31 D- 64 R)             +33 R    (One of the most Democratic cities in the county)
2010: (41 D- 53 R)             +12 R    (Tracking about avg for County in 'Pub "Wave Year")
2014: (38 D- 51 R)             +13 R    (One of the worst performances for a "Pub in Cities, with large 3rd Party support for Working Families Party candidate)
2016: (44 D- 42 R)             +2  D    (Best Dem/Worst "Pub" performance in city other than Pendleton)

OR GOV:

1990: (42 D- 37 R- 19 OCA)     +5  D    (One of the best performances for the OCA candidate in a city)
2002: (40 D- 54 R)             +14 R
2010: (34 D- 60 R)             +26 R    (Most "Pub" of the 4 largest cities in County)
2014: (33 D- 59 R)             +26 R    (2nd most Dem of the "Big 4" in County)
2016: (38 D- 51 R)             +13 R    (Most Dem of the "Big 4")

Hmm.... WTF is going on here?

So the 'Pubs clock their worst US Senate numbers ince '92, even though a significant number of Dems voted Working Families Party for US Senate, Republican support collapses to their worst levels since before '90 (When you combine the Republican and Oregon Citizens alliance numbers for '90).

Meanwhile Trump holds about average....

Thought is again that you some some frequently Dem Anglo crossovers for Trump, that voted Dem "down-ballot" for US Sen and OR Gov, combined with younger voters and Latinos that went 3rd Party in '16 voting Dem for US Sen and OR Gov...

Ok--- so now we have looked at the four largest cities in the county (Pendleton, Hermiston, Milton Freewater, and Umatilla), that collectively accounted for 53% of the total county vote in 2016, despite having about 60+% of the total population, and there are definitely potentially reasons for Republicans to be concerned in one of the largest population counties in Oregons 2nd Congressional District....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #29- Part IV

Ok--- some major issues for the Republican Party in the four largest population centers in the County.

Trump did not add any additional support in the largest voting center (Pendleton) with the highest percentage of Anglos in the County.... Large and growing Latino population in the other three...

It's pretty clear that the Millennial generation, which is heavily Latino in these cities rejected HRC and voted for 3rd Party candidates.

Although the "Big Four" only accounted for 53% of the County Vote in '16, despite having over 60% of the County population, it will likely represent 57% of the County Vote by '20, and 60% by '24, with the Latino share of the electorate much larger than it currently is....

So, let's take a look at the other 47% of the voting population in '16, starting with a few smaller towns and some various rural precincts....

1.) Stanfield, Oregon--- Pop 2.0k--- MHI $54.1k--- (3.6% of County Vote)



Stanfield is a small town located right off the I-84 highway a mile or so down the road from the Pilot Travel Center truckstop, not that many miles SE of Hermiston, which is off the Interstate.

Because of it's location, there is a significant amount of people employed in transportation related occupations, as well as at food processing plants nearby, including the potato starch plant that caught on fire just a few months back.


http://www.eastoregonian.com/eo/local-news/20170221/none-injured-at-industrial-fire-in-stanfield

Relative Occupations: Law Enforcement (3.2%), Material Movement (10.0%), Farming (6.6%), Fire Fighting (2.6%), Transportation (7.8%), Production (8.4%)
Relative Industries: Transportation (10.6%), Agriculture (10.5%), Government (9.2%), Retail (24.6%), Manufacturing (12.3%).

Ethnically: 31.1% Latino, 61.4% Anglo

Election Results:

US PRES:

1988: (52 D- 48 R)                +4  D
1992: (38 D- 30 R- 32 Perot)      +8  D    (Perot placed 2nd)
2000: (36 D- 60 R)                +24 R
2004: (33 D- 65 R)                +32 R
2008: (35 D- 62 R)                +27 R
2012: (33 D- 63 R)                +30 R
2016: (23 D- 66 R)                +41 R

So definitely looking like in Trucking country, Trump's message resonated, even with a 30% Latino population.  Although it's debatable what proportion of the electorate here is Latino, this is one of the only places in the county thus far where Trump actually exceeded George W.'s '04 numbers, indicating that not only was there a major swing towards Trump among Anglo voters, but also that there wasn't much of a swing towards Clinton at all among Latino voters.

Shoot, this is one of the few cities in the County that Dukakis won in '88, Perot actually came in 2nd vs Bush Sr, Gore did better than Obama, and Dems lost 10% between '12 and '16, or basically 1/3rd of their 2012 voters....

US SEN:

1990: (48 D- 52 R)               +4  R
1992: (38 D- 62 R)               +24 R
2002: (21 D- 76 R)               +55 R
2004: (56 D- 39 R)               +17 D
2008: (26 D- 69 R)               +43 R
2010: (39 D- 56 R)               +17 R
2014: (32 D- 62 R)               +30 R
2016: (37 D- 51 R)               +14 R

OR GOV:

1990: (40 D- 33 R- 24 OCA)       +7  D
2002: (35 D- 62 R)               +27 R
2010: (29 D- 66 R)               +37 R
2014: (26 D- 70 R)               +44 R
2016: (28 D- 62 R)               +34 R

So increase for Trump, but lowest level of support for Republicans for US Senate and OR Gov since 2002/2004....

Pilot Rock--- Pop 1.6k--- MHI $ 38.8k--- (2.2% of '16 County Vote)



Located 20 Miles South of Pendleton, not that far from the Blue Ridge Mountains, it is the first community in Umatilla County, where the Timber industry is a factor at all when it comes to the economy, employment, and social identity of the community.

The largest employer in the town is Kinzua Resources, which is actually a subsidiary of a major Forest Products giant Boise Cascade.

http://www.timberprocessing.com/boise-kinzua-sawmill/

There has long been logging in the Pine Forests of the Blue Mountain range of Central/Eastern Oregon, and in fact the sawmills in many small towns and rural areas East of the Cascade Mountain Range have worked in the Timber Industry, it has long had a completely seperate set of issues, compared to the logging industry West of the Cascade Mountain Range.

Relative Occupations: Law Enforcement (7.2%) !!!!, Repair (9.7%), Health Care (4.5%), Material Movement (6.8%), Health Care specialist (5.9%)
Relative Industries: Utilies (4.7%), Government (14.2%), Manufacturing (17.6%), Health Care (21.6%).

So... not sure why there are so many cops around here, maybe some people commuting 20-25 minutes to work in the State Prison in Pendleton, combined with County Sheriffs thst live here, and basically are responsible for patrolling the Southern section of the County, including a ton of publically owned land.

Meanwhile, ethnically Pilot Rock clocks at 86.7% Anglo and only 2.2% Latino, with 11% identifying as "Mixed".

So how has the "Whitest" community in the County been voting over the decades?

US President:

1988: (44 D- 56 R)                +12 R
1992: (29 D- 36 R- 31 Perot)      + 7 R
2000: (25 D- 70 R)                +45 R
2004: (27 D- 72 R)                +45 R
2008: (28 D- 69 R)                +41 R
2012: (25 D- 72 R)                +47 R
2016: (16 D- 75 R)                +59 R

US Senate:

1990: (44 D- 56 R)                +12 R
1992: (29 D- 71 R)                +42 R
2002: (18 D- 79 R)                +61 R
2004: (58 D- 37 R)                +21 D
2008: (16 D- 78 R)                +62 R
2010: (37 D- 57 R)                +20 R
2014: (30 D- 62 R)                +32 R
2016: (35 D- 55 R)                +20 R

OR Gov:

1990: (41 D- 33 R- 24 OCA)        +8  D
2002: (31 D- 65 R)                +34 R
2010: (27 D- 68 R)                +41 R
2014: (25 D- 69 R)                +44 R
2016: (20 D- 73 R)                +53 R

Let's take a look at some of the "Rural" Precincts now that we have covered the cities and small towns accounting for 60% of the '16 Vote....


Umatilla Indian Reservation--- (Pop 3.0k?)--- (4.7% of County Vote)



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umatilla_Indian_Reservation

http://ctuir.org/history-culture

Now firstly it is important to note that less than 50% of the Reservation is Native American, with a large White component, as well as a decent proportion of Latinos, so unlike for example the Warm Springs Reservation precinct in Jefferson County, we're only seeing a partial view of the Native American vote here.


The MHI varies wildly depending upon which Census tract you look at, but ranges from a low of $40k/Yr to a high of $65k/Yr, and overall it looks like the MHI actually exceeds the County average of $48.4k/Yr by a decent clip.

The Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation (CTUIR) is the largest employer (520 employees) within the precinct, as well as one of the largest employers in Northeastern Oregon.

Additionally, the Wildhorse Casino and Resort in nearby Pendleton employs 800 individuals, many of whom are Umatilla Tribal members that either live off-reservation, or commute down the Mountain to work in the Casino operated by the Umatilla Indian Reservation.

Within the reservation, much of the economy is small scale agriculture, livestock, and timber related activities, as is the case in much of the nearby areas outside of the Reservation.


US Presidential Elections:

1992: (41 D- 34 R- 25 Perot)      +7  D
2000: (44 D- 53 R)                +9  R
2004: (44 D- 55 R)                +11 R
2008: (48 D- 51 R)                +3  R
2012: (48 D- 50 R)                +2  R
2016: (37 D- 53 R)                +16 R

US Senate Elections:

1990: (41 D- 59 R)                +18 R
2002: (28 D- 69 R)                +41 R
2004: (69 D- 28 R)                +41 D
2008: (24 D- 72 R)                +48 R
2010: (51 D- 46 R)                + 5 D
2014: (45 D- 49 R)                + 4 R
2016: (53 D- 38 R)                +15 D

OR Gov:

1990: (42 D- 38 R- 18 OCA)        + 4 D
2002: (45 D- 52 R)                + 7 R
2010: (42 D- 55 R)                +13 R
2014: (38 D- 57 R)                +19 R
2016: (41 D- 53 R)                +12 R

So obviously a few things stand out here.... very consistent Dem/Pub Pres margins between 2000 and 2012, with a slight incumbent bump for W. in '04, and Obama making for a virtual tie in '08/'12.

There was a massive dropoff in Democratic support between '12 and '16, as was observed elsewhere in areas with large Native American populations, but only minor gains for the Republican nominee....

No doubt items like Natural Gas pipelines were on the minds of many Native voters, considering there is an outstanding issue with Natural Gas pipelines running underneath the reservation, that were never really agreed to by the First Nation, that had a few issues with massive explosions and fireballs sent 500 feet into the air in a prime forest fire zone of the state.

http://registerguard.com/rg/news/local/35052264-75/umatilla-indian-reservation-grapples-with-pipelines-in-northeastern-oregon.html.csp

So, let's take a look at the rest of the rural precincts to see what happened over the years....

These do not include precinct results from the Umatilla Indian Reservation, since this is an exceptional situation overall in terms of rural voting in the County...

Rural Areas--- 2000-2016

US President:

2000: (51% of County Vote)---- (30 D- 66 R)      +36 R
2004: (51% of County Vote)---- (31 D- 68 R)      +37 R
2008: (50% of County Vote)---- (33 D- 66 R)      +33 R
2012: (51% of County Vote)---- (30 D- 67 R)      +37 R
2016: (36% of County Vote)---- (21 D- 71 R)      +50 R

US Senate:

2002: (22 D- 77 R)        +55 R
2004: (54 D- 43 R)        +11 D
2008: (22 D- 74 R)        +52 R
2010: (37 D- 59 R)        +22 R
2014: (31 D- 63 R)        +32 R
2016: (35 D- 56 R)        +21 R

OR Gov:

2002: (33 D- 63 R)        +30 R
2010: (27 D- 68 R)        +41 R
2014: (25 D- 71 R)        +46 R
2016: (24 D- 69 R)        +45 R


So obviously the first thing that stands out is the dramatic shift in the composition of county voters between the cities and the rural areas.

It appears that the electoral composition has shifted dramatically from a 50-51% Rural (Non Res) to barely over 1/3 Rural votes in the County....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #30--- Union County- Pop 25.7k--- MHI $ 39.7k/Yr



This remote county in Northeastern Oregon was mostly a pass through zone in the early days of the Oregon Trail, and the first few non-Native settlements didn't begin appearing until 1861.

Even then, there was only minor population growth, because much of the modern day county's geography with the Grande Ronde Valley essentially surrounded on all sides by steep mountains.

It wasn't until 1883 when the railroad first started rolling through the area, that there was a significant expansion of population growth over the next three decades, with agriculture and livestock prevalent in the valleys, and timber industry expanding in higher elevation areas.

The population of La Grande boomed, as was the case of many other towns along the railroad line in Northeastern Oregon, as a major trading center with school enrollment going from 131 students in 1868 to 1,377 by 1900.

By 1930, the population of La Frande had boomed to 8,000, virtually tripling in population from 1900.

Starting in the 1950s there was a dramatic boom in timber harvests throughout the county, as a result of a large quantity of timberland on US Forest Service, land that covers a good chunk of the land mass of the county. Between 1957 and 1973 there were an average of around 120k thousands of Board Ft (MBF) coming out of the county, which actually increased over the course of the 1970s, until it collapsed to only 68k MBF in '82 at the height of the Reagan Recession in Oregon.

Interestingly enough the industry quickly recovered here hitting a peak of 231k MBF in '86 and maintaining about 140k MBF through '93, before dramatically collapsing in '94, and sinking down to only about 50k-60k MBF by the early 2000s.

Boise Cascade is still the largest employer within the county with some 500 employees working at their mill in La Grande, Oregon, although in general the timber industry around here has certainly seen brighter days.

http://www.lagrandeobserver.com/business/4821433-151/tour-highlights-issues-of-local-mill?referrer=carousel9

Although the local economy is still heavily dependent upon Forestry and Agriculture, there is also significant employment associated with Eastern Oregon University in La Grande, the Grande Ronde Hospital, and some Manufacturing jobs outside of the Forest Products Industry.

Relative Occupations: Farming (3.7%), Law Enforcement (1.1%), Facilities (5.6%), Science (1.6%), Social Services (2.7%), Transportation (4.7%), Repair (3.9%), Personal Care (6.0%)

Relative Industries: Agriculture (7.4%), Transportation (5.1%), Government (6.7%), Information (2.4%), Health Care (16.7%), Education (10.0%).

As in most of the surrounding counties, it has a fairly large Mormon population for Oregon, at 7.0%, and was the location of the first Church built in La Grande, and the first LDS Church within the State of Oregon, as part of early Mormon settlement patterns in Oregon when the Church leadership was looking at the Oregon Terretories as a potential location over Utah to avoid religious persecution and anti-Mormon violence.

Ethnically, unlike several nearby counties, it is overwhelmingly non-Latino White (90.3%) with a small Latino Population (4.1%), which is a bit more concentrated among people under the age of 18 (6%).

So how has the county been voting over the past few decades?


US President:

1988: (46 D- 50 R)               +  4 R
1992: (35 D- 37 R- 28 Perot)     +  2 R
2000: (30 D- 65 R)               + 35 R
2004: (33 D- 66 R)               + 33 R
2008: (37 D- 60 R)               + 23 R
2012: (33 D- 63 R)               + 30 R
2016: (25 D- 65 R)               + 40 R

US Senate:

1992: (33 D- 67 R)               + 34 R
2002: (24 D- 73 R)               + 49 R
2004: (58 D- 39 R)               + 19 D
2008: (27 D- 67 R)               + 40 R
2010: (46 D- 50 R)               +  4 R
2014: (38 D- 55 R)               + 17 R
2016: (42 D- 50 R)               +  8 R

OR GOV:

2002: (36 D- 59 R)               + 23 R
2006: (39 D- 54 R)               + 15 R
2010: (32 D- 64 R)               + 32 R
2014: (30 D- 64 R)               + 34 R
2016: (27 D- 67 R)               + 40 R


So, here you have a county where Dukakis performed better than anywhere else in "Eastern Oregon" in '88, many of whose voters jumped towards Perot in '92, trusting neither Bill Clinton nor Bush Sr on either economic or foreign policy matters, in a county that had only recently suffered dramatically at the height of the Reagan Recession.

Looking at the US Senate results once you separate the '02 and '08 Eastern Oregonian Repupblican Gordon Smith from the total, it's actually remarkable how poorly Republicans have performed in the County.

Merkley, the blue collar son of a mill worker from Southern Oregon, was able to hold the Republican nominee to only 55% of the county vote in '14, despite the (D) behind his name, while 'Pub Pres candidates were bagging between 60-65% of the vote from 2000-2016.

In terms of Gubrenatorial Elections, typical "upstate-downstate" Oregon dynamics apply, although it looks like in '16 the 'Pub candidate for Governor, likely was able to gain 3-4% of voters that swung towards Trump between '12 and '16.

Next stop, the cities of the county and more detailed precinct level breakdown. 

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #30- Union County- Part II

Time to take a look at the largest City in Union County, La Grande.




1.) La Grande--- Pop 13.1k---  MHI $42.5k/ Yr (43% of County Vote '16)

The city of La Grande basically encompasses clost to half of the voters in Union County, and once you start throwing in the rural areas directly outside of town closer to 60% of the County Vote....

This beautiful town nestled on the edge of the Blue Mountain Range in Northeastern Oregon, was settled early in the days at the time of the Oregon Trail, and became a City back in 1865 as part of the "Stagecoach Belt" of Northeastern Oregon, and a few decades later, the railroad that followed.

As with much of the rest of NE Oregon, Mining was the main attraction that created a local population boom, and the town expanded dramtically to provide various trading services to those in Union, Baker, and Wallowa counties during the height of the local Gold Rush.

Although Mining played a major reason in both the early economic development of both the County and City, the real population boom occurred as a result of Logging and Timber related activities in the US Government owned Forests in the surrounding areas.

Interstingly enough Union County, as well as neighboring Baker and Wallowa County voted for JFK in 1960, even as many other parts of Oregon voted heavily for Nixon.

Although there are various theories as to why Northeastern Oregon was so supportive of Democratic Party candidates in the 1960s. my suspicion is that the relatively large Mormon Population was more receptive to a fellow member of a long persecuted Religious Minority Population (Catholics), before many Working Class Mormons started shifting heavily towards the Republican Party as a result of the "Social Issue" Wars of the 1970s and 1980s.

Off-Topic aside.....

La Grande is home to one of only seven Public Universities in Oregon that offers a four year degree program.

There are approximately 1.7k students that attend classes in person at Eastern Oregon University annually, the vast majority of whom are from Eastern Oregon, and to some extent Eastern Washington, and Idaho.

Obviously, a lot of students are registered to vote in their home counties and states, but still it's important to note, since unlike just about anywhere else in Eastern Oregon, there is a decent sized University student population.

So, let's take a look at the economic profile of La Grande:

Relative Occupations: Farming (3.7%), Law Enforcement (1.1%), Facilities (5.6%), Science (1.6%), Social Services (2.7%), Transportation (4.7%), Repair (3.9%), Personal Care (6.0%), Fire Fighting (1.3%), Education (6.5%)

Relative Industries: Agriculture (7.4%), Transportation (5.1%), Government (6.7%), Information (2.4%), Health Care (16.7%), Education (10.0%),


Time to take peak at some election results from La Grande with some unfortunate gaps in my data set...


US President:

1988: (50 D- 47 R)                   + 3 D
1992: (40 D- 33 R- 26 Perot)         + 7 D
2008: (44 D- 52 R)                   + 8 R
2012: (42 D- 54 R)                   + 12 R
2016: (34 D- 55 R)                   + 21 R


So, what happened here? Sure Trump narrowly expanded upon Romney '12 'Pub numbers, but it doesn't explain the Democratic collapse in La Grande in '16....

If we look at the three precincts in La Grande, since the consolidation in early 2000, we see something like the following at the Presidential level....

Precinct #1- 2.1k Voters ('16)

2008: (51 D- 46 R)      +5 D
2012: (49 D- 46 R)      +3 D
2016: (44 D- 45 R)      +1 R (Meanwhile 5% Write-Ins (Bernie and a few McMullins), 5% Libertarian, 2% Green)

Precinct #2:

2008: (42 D- 54 R)      +12 R
2012: (38 D- 59 R)      +21 R
2016: (30 D- 59 R)      +29 R

Precinct #3:

2008: (38 D- 59 R)     +21 R
2012: (36 D- 60 R)     +24 R
2016: (25 D- 63 R)     +38 R

So within the most heavily University Precint, massive Dem drop-off to 3rd Party candidates, within the other two precincts roughly a 17% swing between '08 and '16...

So La Grande is not only the largest City in the County, but additionally Democrats tend to do quite well outside of the Presidential Level..

US Senate:

1992: (39 D- 61 R)     +22 R
2008: (34 D- 60 R)     +26 R
2010: (54 D- 42 R)     +12 D
2014: (47 D- 46 R)     + 1 D
2016: (48 D- 42 R)     + 6 D

OR GOV:

1994: (46 D- 49 R)    + 3 R
2010: (41 D- 56 R)    +15 R
2014: (39 D- 55 R)    +16 R
2016: (35 D- 58 R)    +23 R

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #30--- Union County Part III

So let's take a stroll through the incorporated cities in the County to see what's been going on there over the past (30) years.

1.) Elgin---- Pop 1.6k--- MHI $45.2k/ Yr  (6% of County Vote '16)



Elgin is one of the more remote places in a very remote part of Oregon.... Tucked into the Northern Part of the County, in a thick forested part of the Valley back in the days, the fur trappers and hunters used to have sled dogs deliver their provisions across the mountain.

One of the first European settlers here Mr Mckinnis is basically credited with building all of the original timber mills in the County, and one point in the early 1900s there were 35 sawmills operating in the Elgin area.

Although the days of that volume of timber being produced and processed here are long gone, Boise Cascade owns and operates a Mill in the city of Elgin, that has some 550 employees, making it the largest employer in Union County.

Boise Cascades purchase of the Kinzua Mill back in 2009 (At the height of the Bush W. recession) likely saved this facility from going down the same route of closures, that many other Timber Mills went through during that time period in NorthEastern Oregon.

If we look at the Occupational & Industrial workforce data, we can see the impact that this Plant currently plays in the economic health of the City and surrounding rural communities.

Relative Occupations: Repair (8.3%), Material Movement (6.9%), Farming (4.3%), Production (11.5%), Food Service (11.9%), Facilities (6.7%), Personal Care (8.1%)

Relative Industries: Manufacturing (26.7%), Hospitality (14.1%), Finance & Insurance (6.5%), Utilities (1.4%), Agriculture (4.7%).

So, Elgin is pretty clearly a "Company Town" where the local economy is overwhelmingly dependent upon one large employer, and various contractors and vendors that provide goods and services, as well as small business owners whose customer base and friends/families/neighbors are all closely tied to the continued existence of the Mill.

If we look at the racial/ethnic composition of the City, it's overwhelmingly "White" (86.9%), but interestingly enough 6.2% "Mixed", 3.5% Asian, 2.8% Latino.

Now, why is there such a relatively large Asian-American population in this City? Although I don't know the exact answer, it is noteworthy that there was an historically large Chinese-American population in this part of Oregon.... In fact there were large Chinatowns in places just down the Road in Baker City in the late 1800s, and large Chinese-American communities in La Grande around the same time period.

The Chinese Exclusion Act and Nativist resentment against Chinese-American immigrants effectively led to a huge exodus of the Chinese population from this part of Oregon, but there are still 58 individuals in Elgin that identify as Chinese-Americans in their ancestry, indicating that potentially individuals might have left neighboring cities when the Knights Of Labor was pushing hard on "Nativist" issues, and some people simply relocated to communities that were more accepting.

Anyways--- Time to take a look at election returns in Elgin....


US President:

1988: (36 D- 58 R)                       +22 R
1992: (30 D- 38 R- 31 Perot)             + 8 R      (Perot placed 2nd in the City)
2008: (28 D- 68 R)                       +40 R
2012: (25 D- 71 R)                       +46 R
2016: (15 D- 77 R)                       +62 R      (Damn 40% swing between '88 and '16)


US Senate:

1992: (25 D- 75 R)                       +50 R
2008: (19 D- 74 R)                       +55 R
2010: (44 D- 50 R)                       + 6 R
2014: (33 D- 59 R)                       +26 R
2016: (37 D- 52 R)                       +15 R

OR GOV:

1994: (26 D- 68 R)                       +42 R
2010: (23 D- 73 R)                       +50 R
2014: (21 D- 74 R)                       +53 R
2016: (19 D- 74 R)                       +55 R

So Interestingly enough Trump actually outperformed any Republican candidate on all of the Elections on the list, but still Democratic Candidates for US Senate can clock between 33-44% of the Vote between '10 and '16.


2.) Union, Oregon--- Pop 2.1k--- MHI $39.7k--- (8.9% of County Vote '16)



This small town is one of the oldest in the County, located in the far Southern corner of the Grande Ronde Valley and for decades in the Mid to late 1800s was engaged in a fierce rivalry with La Grande for location of the County Seat, as well as location from the prime railroad stop, with all of the attendent political and commercial power that went with that status.

Although the "war" was eventually won in La Grande's favor in 1902, after some extremely shady business, including a forceable secession of the "Pro Union Capitol" part of the County, a murder and subequent execution that happened, which to this day many local old timers believe was a framing, this town still has one of the best collections of old Victorian era buildings within the Region.

Like much the rest of the county, the local economy had a large agricultural and timber related component, as a regional small commercial center providing goods and services, but today it is increasingly a place that attracts a significant amount of tourist related activity, as one of the Gateways to the Hells Canyon region of the State, or a part of America also known as Little Switzerland.

There was an active proposal to build a 2nd Wind Farm in the County, only a few Miles down the Road from Union, and the Company ended up pulling out in '13 citing lack of "demand" for the product, but this was in the context of a highly politically charged County election and debates, etc, as to the environmental and scenic impacts in one of the most beautiful regions of Oregon.

Needless to say at the County level this was not seen as a divise partian issue, but rather more about local politics...

Relative Occupations and Relative Industries:

Relative Occupations: Fire Fighting (2.9%), Facilities (9.4%), Transportation (7.1%), Construction (6.9%), Farming (3.1%), Sales & Related (15.2%).
Relative Industries: Agriculture (8.8%), Utilities (2.0%), Transportation (7.8%), Information (4.1%), Construction (7.2%), Retail (14.8%), Health Care (16.3%)

Election Results----

US President:

1988: (45 D- 55 R)                 +10 R
1992: (36 D- 31 R- 32 Perot)       + 5 D     (Perot places 2nd)
2008: (35 D- 68 R)                 +33 R
2012: (32 D- 64 R)                 +32 R     (Interesting drop in 'Pub support here between '08 and '12)
2016: (19 D- 71 R)                 +52 R     (+20% Pub Swing and +7% from Romney '12 numbers)

US Senate:

1992: (34 D- 65 R)                 +31 R
2008: (26 D- 66 R)                 +40 R
2010: (46 D- 50 R)                 + 4 R     (Wow--- even better than Dukakis '88 numbers)
2014: (35 D- 54 R)                 +19 R     (Dem Merkley not running against a regional Rep incumbent)
2016: (39 D- 53 R)                 +14 R     (Interesting--- Trump coattails?)

Still no Republican candidate for Senate between '10 and '16 has beat Bush Sr's 55% numbers, even though at a Presidential Level, the City has been moving Republican.

OR Gov:

1994: (35 D- 58 R)                +23 R
2010: (27 D- 67 R)                +40 R
2014: (27 D- 66 R)                +39 R
2016: (23 D- 69 R)                +46 R     (Looks like some down-ballot going on here---- Note Trump's '16 numbers are the highest of any Pub on the list)


3. Island City--- Pop 1.0k--- MHI $52.6k/Yr (4.9% of County Votes '16)



Island City is basically a a small suburb of La Grande, just a mile or so down the Road, and as such is basically a bit of a Working and Middle-Class bedroom Community for families looking to buy their first home, or upgrade, without paying the higher premium that comes with buying a home in the County Capitol, and also a University Town.

So Island City, as to be expected like most of the Rest of the County is overwhelmingly Non-Latino White (~95%). It also has an extremely high percentage of the population <18/Yrs (24%), as well as 6.2% 18-24...

It is now important to note that almost 70% of the County Vote now comes from the City of La Grande, the suburbs of Island City, and the surrounding rural areas. In many ways this is a typical "Mountain West" scenario, where much of the population is clustered around core anchor population centers, and virtually no one lives in the surrounding "rural" areas.

Now, what do the actual workers in Island City do for a living?

Relative Occupations: Science (3.4%), Material Moving (4.5%), Construction (7.4%), Law Enforcement (1.1%), Personal Care (6.1%), Production (7.7%), Management (12.4%)

Relative Industries: Oil, Gas, & Mining (0.5%), Real Estate (6.1%), Utilities (1.8%), Government (8.7%), Agriculture (6.3%), Construction (7.4%).

So, classic Middle-Class Bedroom Community that combines a mixture of highly educated workers in White Collar occupations, as well as Blue Collar workers in Manufacturing and Construction related occupations.


Election Results:

US President:

1988: (47 D- 53 R)                             + 6 R (Only 16 Voters in this "town"
1992: (30 D- 40 R- 30 Perot)                   +10 R (Perot only narrowly loses to Bill Clinton for 2nd--- 409 voters)
2008: (34 D- 64 R)                             +30 R (553 Voters)
2012: (27 D- 71 R)                             +44 R (562 Voters)
2016: (22 D- 70 R)                             +48 R (629 Voters)

US Senate:

1992: (32 D- 67 R)                             +35 R
2008: (16 D- 81 R)                             +65 R  (Wow--- "hometown" Eastern Oregonian Rep from down the road, but...)
2010: (44 D- 54 R)                             +10 R
2014: (35 D- 58 R)                             +23 R  (Hmm.... Merkley does better than Obama in '08)
2016: (43 D- 50 R)                             + 7 R (Wow--- The 'Pub candidate had the lowest result since before '08)

OR Gov:

1994: (37 D- 58 R)                            +21 R
2010: (25 D- 72 R)                            +47 R
2014: (26 D- 69 R)                            +43 R
2016: (23 D- 71 R)                            +48 R

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #30- Part IV---- Rural Union

Ok--- so we've basically already covered a huge proportion of the '16 County Vote---

1.) Large City- La Grande                   (43 % of County Vote)
2.) Small Towns/Regional                    (20 % of County Vote)
    A.) Elgin                               (6 % of County Vote)
    B.) Union                               (9 % of County Vote)
    C.) Island City                         (5% of County Vote)

So we have a few other incorporated communities that I did not include (Cove, Summerville, and Imbler that add another 4% to the County Vote)....

I could break that into more detailed precinct level data by community, although it gets slightly more difficult because of split-precincts later on, but still.

1.) Cove--- Pop 550....

This small town is the 2nd wealthiest place in the County in terms of MHI, likely because of a concentration of professionals and those with advanced college degrees than just about anywhere else in Union County.

Not sure exactly why, but I suspect that the location because of it's location attracts a decent amount of Upper-Middle Class Voters, that wouldn't mind paying decent dollars for a place like this, in exchange for a commute to La Frande and other nearby communities...



So I'll skip the bottom-line numbers and just look at top-line numbers:

US Pres:
           
1988: (52 D- 48 R)                      +4 D
1992: (26 D- 43 R- 30 Perot)            +17 R   (Wow--- Crazy Swing and high Perot numbers, even for the County)
2008: (36 D- 61 R)                      +25 R   (Perot voters split roughly 2:1 McCain)
2012: (31 D- 65 R)                      +34 R   (Bit more than an avg bump btwn '08 and '12--- wealthier voter swings?)
2016: (24 D- 67 R)                      +43 R

Weird, you have a town that Dukakis won in a relatively educated and wealthier part of the County where the Democrats were oblitered even in '16?

2.) "Rural Union County"---- So once we take the 67% of the vote away from the larger population centers, we are left with the remaining 33%...

The vast majority of whom actually live in rural areas outside of La Grande, including a higher proportion of retirees, ranchers, and Upper- Middle Class folk that can afford a bit of acreage outside of town, or those who inherited it, but still are willing to deal with the commute for an honest and decent paying job in the surrounding area...

To put it simply, this where we might have expected to see a "city"/"rural" divide back in '88.

Exhibit A: Rural La Grande (13% of the County Vote in '88)

1988: (50 D- 47 R)                +3 D
1992: (34 D- 35 R- 31 Perot)      +1 R     (Note that Ross Perot won the majority in 1/2 of these precincts)
2008: (34 D- 65 R)                +31 R    (So where did all the Dems go starting with Bill Clinton?)
2012: (29 D- 68 R)                +39 R    (Ok--- so starting to see something here...)
2016: (22 D- 69 R)                +47 R

I could do an exhibit B, but is it really necessary, since the patterns and swings are the same?


So--- I don't know what to say, but tell me why a place where Dukakis won by 3% in '88 voted Trump by 47%?

We are not talking about an area that has been experiencing massive social and Demographic Change, we are talking about a realignment of the Democratic Party that historically had strong populist and progressive local roots, towards the Party that colluded with the Republicans agressively pursuing Free Trade Agreements, starting with MFN with China under Bush Senior, NAFTA under a Democratic President, where his own Party overwhelmingly saw it as a sell-out deal, and then further and further down the line.

If Democrats continue this trainwreck at a Presidential Level, they have only themselves to blame.

It is notable, that even in the "Heart" of Trump Country Oregon, that Liberal Democratic Senators still win reelections....

Old School Republican (My distinguished Oregonian collegue from across the aisle) might say as he will, but I have yet to see any coherent argument regarding the lack of support for Republicans in National Elections, and in particular Senatorial and Congressional Elections within our Great Home State of Oregon.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #31- Crook County--- Pop 20.9k--- MHI $38.8k/Yr



Crook County Oregon was for the longest time considered one of only a few bellweather counties in the US from 1884 until 1992, voting for every single winning GE Presidential Candidate for over 100 years.

It is currently the 2nd fastest growing county in Oregon as measured by % of population increase, namely because increasingly working and middle-class familities are being forced out of a rapidly increasing real estate and rental market in Deschutes County (Bend and surrounding), so commuting longer distances in exchange for being able to afford to buy or rent a home, has dramatically changed the local population base.

Overall, Crook County is still an overwhelmingly Blue Collar County... although the days when Crook County was an overwhelmingly Timber based County are several decades gone, which was the largest Ponderosa Pine producer in the Nation, it was less than 10 years ago when the County hit a 20% unemployment rate, after the Housing Crash and the George W. Bush recession. Agriculture is still a major part of the culture, employment and economy of the county.

It's still a heavily Blue Collar County, with a mix of people commuting long hours to work over in Bend and commuties in the surrounding area, but now there are some decent paying jobs appearing in the forms of both a Facebook and Apple Data Center that recently set up shop in Prineville.

http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2016/07/apple_facebook_give_timber_tow.html

If we look at the overall ethnic demographics of the County, it is overwhelmingly Anglo/White, but with a rapidly growing Latino population, especially among populations <45 years old.

(89.1% White, 7.2% Latino)

Interesting enough, the Latino population 18-19 years is 14% Latino, and 10% of the 25-29 year age group, so the ranks of Latino Millennials is starting to become a relatively significant chunk of that age cohort, which could presage future voting changes down the line potentially, considering that they went to same Public Schools, and work in the same jobs as many of their "Anglo" peers.

Let's take a look at relative occupations and industries, since as always I firmly believe that sometimes this helps define certain key components of individual identity, as well as greater understanding of the overall economic composition of various Census Designated areas.

Relative Occupations: Law Enforcement (1.7%), Fire Fighting (2.1%), Facilities (6.4%), Transportation (5.0%), Farming (2.9%), Health Care Support (3.2%), Repair (3.8%), Production (8.0%), Health Technicians (1.8%), Administrative (16.2%), Food Service (6.9%).

Relative Industries: Agriculture (7.7%), Government (6.1%), Utilities (1.1%), Other Services (6.0%), Retail (14.3%), Transportation (3.8%), Wholesalers (3.2%), Manufacturing (11.6%).

Les Schwab Tire Company is the largest employer in Crook County, with 425 employees, with 410 Stores throughout the Western United States, and the founder created a tire empire based out of Prineville and there is a major warehouse and distribution center in the City...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Les_Schwab

So, how has Crook County been voting in recent decades?

US Presidential Election:

1988: (46 D- 52 R)                 +6  R
1992: (35 D- 37 R- 28 Perot)       +2  R
2000: (30 D- 68 R)                 +38 R
2004: (30 D- 68 R)                 +38 R
2008: (35 D- 62 R)                 +27 R
2012: (30 D- 66 R)                 +36 R
2016: (22 D- 70 R)                 +48 R

US Senate:

1990: (44 D- 56 R)                 +12 R
1992: (32 D- 68 R)                 +36 R
2002: (23 D- 73 R)                 +50 R
2004: (57 D- 39 R)                 +18 D
2008: (27 D- 64 R)                 +37 R
2010: (41 D- 55 R)                 +14 R
2014: (37 D- 55 R)                 +18 R
2016: (40 D- 52 R)                 +12 R

OR Gov:

1990: (35 D- 55 R- 9 OCA)          +20 R
2002: (34 D- 59 R)                 +25 R
2006: (30 D- 64 R)                 +34 R
2010: (26 D- 70 R)                 +44 R
2014: (29 D- 65 R)                 +36 R
2016: (25 D- 68 R)                 +43 R

As we can see there was a dramatic shift against the Democratic Party at the Presidential level after '92, with the vast majority of Perot voters aligning themselves with the Republican candidates in subsequent elections. Obama was able to briefly improve the performance at the top of ticket in '08, and basically lost those same voters back in '12. There was a minor increase in Republican support between '12 and '16, but most of the reason for the margin changes were Obama voters defecting to 3rd Party Candidates.

Meanwhile, if you look at the US Senate results, between '10 and '16 Dems have been able to capture about 40% of the Vote, with Republicans stuck in the low to mid 50% range.

The only real outliers here were '02 and '08 when you had an incumbent Republican Senator from Eastern Oregon at the top of the ticket.

In terms of Gubernatorial Elections, these results are much more typical of "upstate"/"downstate" Oregon Political dynamics where Republicans tend to overperform most numbers because of resentment in many parts of rural and small-town Oregon, that feel that their voices are not represented in Salem (The state capitol).

It is interesting to note however, that in '16 the Democratic candidate for Governor actually outperformed Clinton, in her complete collapse in Crook County.

Of course, I don't believe that this part of Central Oregon will vote for a Democrat for President anytime in the foreseeable future, but Trump's coatails again are clearly not long enough to cover the top of his suit trousers out here in what is generally over the past few decades and overwhelmingly Republican County.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #31- Crook County Part II

So let's take a look at precinct level results for the County

1.) Prineville--- Pop 9.2k--- MHI $30.0k/Yr



One of the oldest towns in Central Oregon, the city was hampered economically by the lack of railroad connections until 1918, when the City decided to charter it's own shortline railroad, which led to a significant boom with four sawmills operating for decades in the city and surrounding area.

In the 1990s and early 2000s, the last of the two sawmills serviced by the railroad shut down, causing a significant local economic impact.

However, meanwhile the increasingly cost of living in nearby Bend and Redmond, helped facilitate a rapid growth in population, and Prineville was the 7th fastest growing "Micropolitan" area in the Country by percentage by 2015.

Les Schwab tires still has a large distribution center located in Prineville, although they shifted their corporate HQ down the road to Bend a few years back, with about 550 employees.

Additionally, you have two large Data Centers (Apple & Amazon) that set up shop in the City, which combined employ about 200 jobs which pay over 150% of the average local wage.

The downside is that the Data Centers huge demand for power, might well cause a large manufacturing facility not to open up in town, which would employ about 340 individuals.

http://www.oregonlive.com/silicon-forest/index.ssf/2015/09/facebook_greenlights_third_pri.html

http://www.oregonlive.com/silicon-forest/index.ssf/2017/01/prineville_is_running_out_of_e.html

The ethnic composition of Prineville is 86.7% White, 10.1% Latino, 1.7% Other (Mainly Native American). However there is a huge age gap, with only 3% of the population over 45 Latino, versus 16% of 25-29 year olds, and 32% of 18-19 year olds.

The education level is considerably lower than Oregon as a whole, and 18.8% of the City have no High School Diploma and only 17.8% have a degree higher than a High School Diploma.

As expected for a relatively affordable city in a very expensive part of the state, the occupational and industries are concentrated in more traditionally Blue Collar areas.

Relative Occupations: Firefighting 4.4%, Law Enforcement 1.5%, Transportation 5.7%, Facilities 6.0%, Health Care Support 3.8%, Farming 3.0%, Production 8.8%, Food Service 8.7%, Repair 3.9%, Material Moving 3.2%

Relative Industries: Agriculture 5.2%, Real Estate 2.8%, Other Services 6.4%, Manufacturing 13.8%, Government 5.3%, Information 2.2%, Hospitality 8.5%, Health Care 15.3%, Retail 13.0%


So how has Prineville been voting over the years?

The one challenge is that for the '88 General Election, Crook County reported it's absentee votes to a seperate precinct coding, so I'll need to include both the actual non-absentee voters and also try to weigh the absentee votes against the % of total county votes to estimate what the actual total votes were by place/precinct.
It's not perfect, since were more, fewer, or the same proportion of absentees from Prineville vs rural precincts and how did the % of Pres support level break down between the "City" and rural areas?

US President:

1988: (Non-Weighted 37.3% of County Vote)-    50.2% D- 48.0% R                    (+ 2.2% D)
1988: (Weighted)                              49.3% D- 48.7% R                    (+ 0.6% D)
1992: (34.9% of County Vote)                  38.4% D- 36.0% R- 25.1% Perot       (+ 2.4% D)
2000: (29.1% of County Vote)                  34.4% D- 60.1% R)                   (+25.7% R)
2008: (24.5% of County Vote)                  42.5% D- 54.0% R                    (+11.5% R)
2012: (23.4% of County Vote)                  38.0% D- 58.5% R                    (+20.5% R)
2016: (24.6% of County Vote)                  27.4% D- 62.9% R                    (+35.5% R)


US Senate:

1990: (Non Weighted)                          41.7% D- 58.3% R                    (+16.6% R)
1990: (Weighted)                              43.2% D- 56.8% R                    (+13.6% R)
1992:                                         34.3% D- 65.7% R                    (+31.4% R)
2008:                                         32.4% D- 58.6% R                    (+26.2% R)
2010:                                         49.1% D- 46.4% R                    (+ 2.8% D)
2014:                                         45.0% D- 44.1% R                    (+ 0.9% D)
2016:                                         47.1% D- 43.5% R                    (+ 3.6% D)

OR Governor:

1990: (Non-Weighted)                          36.3% D- 54.9% R- 8.4% OCA          (+18.6% R)
1990: (Weighted)                              36.4% D- 54.5% R- 8.7% OCA          (+18.1% R)
1994:                                         38.9% D- 54.7% R                    (+15.8% R)
2006:                                         35.3% D- 58.4% R                    (+23.1% R)
2010:                                         33.5% D- 61.9% D                    (+28.4% R)
2014:                                         36.0% D- 52.6% R                    (+16.6% R)
2016:                                         32.0% D- 59.4% R                    (+27.4% R)

So, here's where I have a bit of a problem, is why is a small City with 50% of the County Population only accounting for 25% of the County Votes?

Now there might be a few split precincts (Precincts 13 & 15 jumps to Mind), so of our experts that have better access to this data than myself, feel free to PM me. Regardless, I'll create a seperate category for potential split precincts around Prineville.

Ok--- now that we've shelved for the moment some rapidly growing suburban developments on the outskirts of the City, we can look at the results within the "City Proper" with the traditional precinct boundaries...

So we see a Liberal Democratic Presidential candidate winning narrowly in '88, a huge drop off of both Democratic and Republican support towards Perot in '92, a consolidation of Perot voters to George W in '04.


We hit the Obama era, and suddenly a ton of ancestral Democratic Voters come home, with at 14.2% swing between 2000 and '08, including a 6.1% drop-off among the 'Pub Pres %....

What happens in 2012 is what I have been describing throughout the Oregon thread.... Tons of WWC Obama '08 voters dropped off and voted Romney in '12.

In fact, the improvement in Republican Presidential performance was slightly greater between '08 and '12, than between '12 and '16 (4.5% vs 4.4%).

This is not to take away from Trump's impressive performance in Prineville, even beating George HW's % in 2000, however, it's pretty clear that over 50% of the Dem drop-ff between '12 and '16, were voters that went to 3rd Party Candidates, in a City, where Latinos are becoming an extremely large chunk of the Millennial population.

Ok---Let's take a look at US Senate elections in Prineville in 2010, 2014, and 2016.... Democrats win a plurality of the vote, and Republican Senate candidates are stuck between 44% and 46 % of the Vote. The interesting thing about this, is that the Working Family Party candidate and "Liberal Republican" running against Free Trade agreements, managed to bag the vast majority of the 3rd Party Vote, as was the case in many other former Mill Towns in Oregon...

Nothing too surprising with the Gubernatorial Elections, but the Democratic bottom line even in the "Upstate-Downstate" scenario that is elections for Governor in Oregon will typically hit 32-36% of the vote in Prineville....

Clinton managed to achieve an impressive 27% of the vote in '16, setting a record low for a Democratic candidate running for a high profile office in the City...

I don't believe that this will be the case in 2020, and obviously if Prineville will vote for Liberal Democratic Senators like Wyden and Merkley by narrow margins, it is not inconceivable, that even without an Oregonian at the top of the ticket, that a Dem Pres Candidate could hit 45% here, if they actually talk bread-and-butter economics....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update # 31- Part III

Reason for discrepancies between the pop of Prineville vs County %vs the voting population.

Multiple precincts that were outside of City limits in '88/'92/ and '00, that are now split precincts.

As one of the fastest growing cities in Oregon, these precincts account for a significant share of the County Vote...

Let's start with the largest precinct within Crook County, that falls within that category:

2.) Precinct # 17--- (Stearns)---- (Split Precinct)-  17.9% of County Vote (2016)



A decent chunk of Prineville, including one of the Data Centers, exurban areas outside of the Urban Growth boundary, and a significant chunk of rural areas SE of Prineville.

Hard measure MHI and Ethnicity, but looks to be ~90% White and ~ $40k/MHI.

Election Results:

US President:

1988: 388 Votes                 (54% D- 45% R)                    + 9% D
1992: 670 Votes                 (45% D- 27% R- 29% Perot)         +18% D      (Perot Placed 2nd)
2000: 1127 Votes                (35% D- 57% R)                    +22% R
2008: 1789 Votes                (39% D- 56% R)                    +17% R
2012: 1803 Votes                (32% D- 64% R)                    +32% R      (+15% R Swing)
2016: 2173 Votes                (21% D- 71% R)                    +50% R      (+18% R Swing)


US Senate:

1990: 391 Votes                 (57% D- 43% R)                    +14% D
1992:                           (41% D- 59% R)                    +18% R
2008:                           (32% D- 59% R)                    +27% R
2010: 1573 Votes                (45% D- 50% R)                    + 5% R
2014: 1590 Votes                (36% D- 55% R)                    +19% R      (+8% D Swing from '08)
2016: 2144 Votes                (41% D- 52% R)                    +11% R      (+6% R Swing from '10)

OR Gov:

1990:                           (43% D- 43% R- 13% OCA)           +0.5% D
1994: 599 Votes                 (39% D- 51% R)                    +12%  R
2006: 1372 Votes                (32% D- 61% R)                    +29%  R
2010:                           (30% D- 67% R)                    +37%  R
2014: 1647 Votes                (28% D- 63% R)                    +35%  R
2016: 2156 Votes                (25% D- 69% R)                    +44%  R

So---- what to make of all of this?

Pop of the pct has doubled since '00, and from '12 and '16 there was a 20% increase in voters.

If you look at the '08/'12/'16 Pres numbers, there was a net 33% swing between '08 and '16, that can't be explained by a pop increase within the pct.

Dem's lost 18% and the Pubs gained 15% , in what Atlas would call a ground Zero WWC precinct. That fact that Trump was able to get a record modern era % of the 'Pub vote of any Republican here over the past 30 years speaks for itself.

Dem's have consistently overperformed at the US Senate Level since '08, and the Pubs have been stuck between 50-55% of the Sen Vote.

Gov Elections less interesting in "Downstate Oregon", but it does look like Trump downballots had an impact here.

The challenge is to determine the breakdown of this sprawling precinct, but I would estimate that roughly 35% live within City limits, 25-30% "exurban" and roughly 35-40% Rural.

If the Dems ever want to win the only Partisan County Election in Oregon (County Commissioner) in Crook County, let alone make a run at flipping OR-CD-02, this would be a "Ground Zero" type precinct, because it encompasses such a wide range of voters.


3.) Precinct #5--- (Barnes Butte Elementary)--- Prineville area (Split Precinct)- 13.8% of County Vote (2016)



Includes a significant population within the City limits, as well as some unincorporated areas outside the urban growth boundary, and rural areas East of the City.

MHI appears to be around $43k/Yr for the Prineville City and uninc areas, with a median age of 56.7 years old, and 12% unemployment rate, 78% White, and 19% Latino.

The more rural areas to the East look to be about 25% of the precinct, with an MHI of $58k/Yr, median age of about 52 yrs old, 21% unemployment rate, and about 92% White, and 6% Latino.

Election Results:

US President:

1988: 418 Votes                 (43% D- 56% R)                    +13% R
1992: 628 Votes                 (31% D- 45% R- 24% Perot)         +14% R
2000: 887 Votes                 (25% D- 72% R)                    +47% R
2008: 1419 Votes                (33% D- 64% R)                    +31% R
2012: 1457 Votes                (28% D- 70% R)                    +42% R     (+11% R Swing)
2016: 1682 Votes                (21% D- 69% R)                    +48% R     (+ 6% R Swing)


US Senate:

1990: 433 Votes                 (42% D- 58% R)                    +16% R
1992:                           (27% D- 73% R)                    +46% R
2008:                           (27% D- 66% R)                    +39% R
2010: 1252 Votes                (40% D- 57% R)                    +17% R
2014: 1176 Votes                (33% D- 61% R)                    +28% R     (+ 9% D Swing)
2016:                           (40% D- 53% R)                    +13% R     (+ 4% D Swing)

OR GOV:

1990:                           (37% D- 55% R- 8% OCA)            +18% R
1994: 547 Votes                 (32% D- 63% R)                    +31% R
2006: 1061 Votes                (33% D- 66% R)                    +33% R
2010:                           (25% D- 72% R)                    +47% R
2014: 1234 Votes                (24% D- 67% R)                    +43% R
2016:                           (24% D- 70% R)                    +46% R  

Ok--- so here we have a precinct with a greater % within City Limits, a relatively high number of working-class Whites & Latinos, and much lower % of rural and exurban voters than in the previous precinct....

So, interestingly enough Trump actually lost support vs Romney '12 numbers here, which might well suggest a bit of a backlash among Latino voters who supported Republican candidates in the past.

If we look at the '10-'16 US Senate numbers for incumbent Dem Ron Wyden, this could well indicate some movement around the margins related to demographic changes of VAP within this precinct.

Also, there was no real change in Gubernatorial results between '14 and '16, as opposed to Precinct #17, where there appears to have been a significant down-ballot impact.

4.) Precinct #13 (McKay Road--- Prineville Area)---  5.7% of County Vote (2016)




Includes a neighborhood within the City of Prineville, areas outside of City limits within the Urban Growth boundary, as well as some exurban and rural areas NW of the City and Urban Growth Boundary

The areas within the City limits look to have an MHI of only about $20k/Yr, and the areas within the Urban Growth boundary and rural areas look to be around the $43k/Yr range.

Areas within the City look to be about 89% White and 10% Latino, areas outside about 86% White, 6% Latino, and 8% Multi-Race.

Avg age of those within the City is 32, outside 44 Years old

Areas within the City 20% Unemployment and outside 5%....

The precinct looks to be maybe roughly 60% within City limits and 40% outside.

Election Results:

US President:

1988: 391 Votes---              (44% D- 53% R)                    + 9% R
1992: 556 Votes---              (33% D- 37% R- 30% Perot)         + 4% R
2000: 579 Votes---              (29% D- 66% R)                    +37% R
2008: 600 Votes---              (30% D- 68% R)                    +38% R
2012: 586 Votes---              (24% D- 70% R)                    +46% R     (+ 8% R Swing)
2016: 688 Votes                 (17% D- 75% R)                    +58% R     (+12% R Swing)


US Senate:

1990: 379 Votes---              (39% D- 61% R)                    +22% R
1992: 513 Votes---              (28% D- 72% R)                    +44% R
2008:                           (21% D- 68% R)                    +47% R
2010: 540 Votes                 (40% D- 57% R)                    +17% R
2014: 500 Votes                 (38% D- 57% R)                    +19% R     (+28% D Swing)
2016: 670 Votes                 (41% D- 52% R)                    +11% R     (+ 6% D Swing)


OR Gov:

1990:                           (33% D- 59% R- 9% OCA)            +26% R
1994: 516 Votes                 (30% D- 62% R)                    +32% R
2006: 506 Votes                 (26% D% 69% R)                    +43% R
2010: 534 Votes                 (20% D- 77% R)                    +57% R
2014: 524 Votes                 (28% D- 65% R)                    +37% R
2016: 676 Votes                 (21% D- 72% R)                    +51% R

So--- this precinct nearly as sexy, since although the population has increased only 150% since '88, and overall is only a relatively small proportion of voters within both the City of Prineville and surrounding area, and is not a particularly large sized precinct.

Still, in many ways it exemplies the dramatic collapse of WWC Democratic support at a Presidential Level between 2000 and 2016, precisely because it is not a precinct, nor neighborhoods that have experienced dramatic social, economic, and demographic changes.

We see the Dem Pres numbers constant in '00 and '08, we see the Pub numbers barely shifting.... We see a massive drop-off in Obama support between '08 and '12, with neglibable Pub improvement on the margins (A pattern I have described elsewhere in rural and small town areas within Oregon).

Now, it's pretty damn clear looking at the '12 to '16 Pres numbers that Trump was able to capture the bulk of Obama '12 drop-off supporters, as to opposed to many other parts of Oregon.

Meanwhile Dems appear to be able to hold onto a consistent 40% of the US Senate Vote, with in fact a swing towards the Dems in the past two US Senate elections.... Pubs can only capture 52-57% of the US Senate Vote running against Liberal Democrats in a precint that went 75% Trump?

Gov Race typical upstate/downstate and def some Trump coatails going on there (+14% R Swing)

So next stop a few more precincts that are "mixed precincts" within Prineville, and taking a brief tour into a handful of "Rural Precincts" proper.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update # 31- Crook County Part IV

So many might ask, "Why are you still continuing to post on this thread?", "Surely the '16 Election is over, and Oregon wasn't even  in play in any major election in '16?"

Although it is true that I don't foresee Oregon being particularly close at the level of US President nor US Senate Elections for quite some time, generally OR GOV elections tend to go down to the wire, the Pubs have a fairly recent history of being able to make US Senate races fairly close, places like Crook County Oregon are actually somewhat major deciding factors in close statewide elections, since usually that means that the Pubs are performing especially well in Portland and the 'Burbs, and Dems are frequently outperforming in the small cities that make up over 50% of the County Vote in places like Baker, Umatilla, Union, and Crook County.

Additionally, once Greg Walden retires, I suspect that the Dems might actually have a decent run at OR (CD-02), considering where the population growth is taking place.

By that I mean that the Dems should be able to run up extremely strong numbers in Ashland, Bend, & Hood River, and if Jackson and Deschuttes County (Outside of Bend and Ashland) vote heavy Dem, the votes in places like Umatilla County, as well as the margins in Baker City, La Grande, and Prineville start to become key towards a winning majority.

So regardless, to briefly summarize....


1.) Prineville (Non-Split Precincts)- 23-25% of County Vote between '08 and '16- went from +11.5% R in '08 to +35.5% R in '16. There was a 4.5% loss of Obama '08>'12 voters to Romney. In '16, Trump added another 4.4% to the Rep margins, which only accounted for about 1/3 of the drop-off in Clinton'2 numbers. Meanwhile Dem Senate candidates win with 1-3% of the Vote between '10 and '16.

2.) Prineville (Split Precincts)- 49-51% of County Vote between '08 and '16. Went from +26% R in '08 to +52% R in '16.... There was a 5.5% loss of Obama '08>'12 McCain. In '16 Trump added another 4.7% to the Republican Margins, which accounted for about 50% of the drop-off of Dem Pres voters between '12 and '16. Meanwhile the Pubs win by 13% in '10 and '16 while only capturing 53-55% of the total Vote.

Now, what obviously complicates the split precincts is trying to determine the City/Exurban/Rural ratio in these precincts.

Typically the areas outside of the City and Urban growth boundary tend to be older, wealthier, and Whiter than the parts of the precincts within the City.

Still, it appears pretty clear that the Republican ceiling is only somewhere between 53-57% of the Vote at the US Senate level in the fastest growing areas within Crook County.

So before I close the chapter on Crook County, now that we've covered 75% of the Voters, I think there might be a few minutes remaining to take a brief stroll and look at some unincorporated/rural communities outside of the Prineville area.

1.) Powell Butte (Precinct #11)---  13.8% of County Votes in 2016



This is the wealthiest precinct within the County (MHI $71.2k/Yr), and is centered around an upscale resort https://www.brasada.com/  developed in '05 that caters to upper-income tourists and year around residents, and is a bit well less known than several similar resport residential communities in Deschutes County.

The population is overwhelmingly White (95%), older (36% 60+ Yrs), and more educated than any other precinct within the County.

Ok--- let's roll the election numbers from over the years....

US President:

1988: 447 Votes  (43% D- 57% R)                +14% R    (The 3rd Most Pub Precinct in the County)
1992: 698 Votes  (25% D- 43% R- 32% Perot)     +18% R    (Perot places 2nd)
2000: 1020 Votes (24% D- 71% R)                +47% R
2008: 1352 Votes (30% D- 67% R)                +37% R
2012: 1345 Votes (28% D- 70% R)                +42% R
2016: 1678 Votes (23% D- 70% R)                +47% R


US Senate:

1990:            (41% D- 59% R)                +18% R
1992:            (27% D- 73% R)                +46% R
2008:            (23% D- 72% R)                +49% R
2010: 1178 Votes (36% D- 62% R)                +26% R
2014: 1252 Votes (32% D- 63% R)                +31% R
2016:            (35% D- 59% R)                +26% R   (The Most Pub and Least Dem Precinct in the County other than a few with <300 Voters)

OR GOV:

1990:            (27% D- 61% R- 12% OCA)       +34% R    (The Most Pub Precinct in the County >100 Voters)
1994:            (32% D- 62% R)                +30% R
2006: 1134 Votes (28% D- 67% R)                +39% R
2010:            (24% D- 74% R)                +50% R
2014:            (25% D- 68% R)                +43% R
2016:            (22% D- 74% R)                +52% R

So what to make of all this?

Here you have one of the fastest growing precincts in Central Oregon, that similarly to Sunriver and Black Butte in Deschutes County are rapidly become the playgrounds of wealthy retirees.

I only expect this trend to continue, because of the appeal of the dry heat and beautiful landscapes of Central Oregon, to not only Oregon retirees leaving the Metro areas, but also California retirees, and those from without other West Coast States.

Some of the population increase in resort communities like this, are also likely a result of local working families that jumped in and bought property at the right time before the Real Estate market went through the roof.

Still, what is intersting here is that in terms of relative income, one might actually expect a swing towards Clinton in '16, considering income and education levels. That did not happen. Although the Republican Pres numbers have remained flat since 2000 (Trump actually performed worse than W. in 2000), there hasn't been any real corresponding Dem gain, other than a 6% Dem bump with Obama in '08.

Also, if we look at the US Senate numbers, these older, wealthier, and educated voters are still sticking solidly by Pub Us Senate candidates....

Needless to say, it will be interesting to see how this precinct, and similar ones in the neighboring County, start moving in the next 10-20 years...

Is this now the Oregon equivalent of "Gated communities" and part of the reason why the area is increasingly unaffordable for local working and Middle-Class families?

Honestly IDK, since I don't have a spare $2k to spend for a week at a luxary resort, where I can happily spend my time golfing with a bunch of older dudes, before taking my wife to the massage/spa amentities, and then an over-priced steak dinner....

To each their own, but it is one of the only precincts in the County where Trump didn't add Republican votes from '00/'12/'16, which is interesting in of itself.

As a Native Oregonian with 40+ Years on the Clock, I still find these types of communities baffling, although I have spent a Night here or there in a timeshare on the Parents of the Brides dime for a few weddings...

OK--- now we are getting close to 90% of precincts reporting and feel like I'm running out of time....

So let's pull up a few random heavily Republican rural precincts to see what else is out there in places that have not experienced the same level of population and demographic change unlike most of the rest of the County.

2.) Precinct #9 (SE Crook County)   1.3% of County Votes 2016

Although I can't really find any major population center, appears to be mainly ranching country...

US President:

1988: 99 Votes    (42% D- 57% R)                +15% R
1992: 158 Votes   (27% D- 41% R- 32% Perot)     +14% R   (Perot Places 2nd)
2000: 179 Votes   (23% D- 72% R)                +49% R
2008: 168 Votes   (27% D- 72% R)                +45% R
2012: 148 Votes   (16% D- 80% R)                +64% R
2016: 161 Votes   (15% D- 82% R)                +67% R

It's actually somewhat interesting that Trump performed better among White voters in Alabama and Mississippi than in ranching country in Eastern Oregon....

3.) Precinct #7  (NE Crook County)   2.2% of County Vote 2016



This more logging country than ranching country.... The Ochoco National Forest provided the logs for decades to feed the largest Mills of Prineville, as well as smaller mills in the local area.

So what do election results look like here?

US President:

1988: 69 Votes   (54% D- 45% R)                 +9% D
1992: 143 Votes  (50% D- 24% R- 26% Perot)      +26% D   (Perot places 2nd)
2000: 163 Votes  (25% D- 72% R)                 +47% R
2008: 199 Votes  (19% D- 79% R)                 +60% R
2012: 223 Votes  (21% D- 75% R)                 +54% R
2016: 264 Votes  (13% D- 80% R)                 +67% R


So, this is pretty interesting.... there has actually been a signifant increase in population growth over the past 16 years....

Now, who are these individuals moving in... are they retirees from within the County, from within the Region, from within the State, or from elsewhere?

Regardless, it appears that the newer inhabitants of the precinct tend to identify with an historic local population that was once strongly receptive to the Democratic message, but got turned off dramatically starting in 2000.

Even if we look at the 2016 US Senate results, this was one of Wyden's worst precincts in the County, where here the results were (32 D- 62 R). Interestingly enough, that was an improvement from 2010, where it was (25 D- 71 R) in the same precinct....

Maybe checks and balances on Trump played a factor here?

So, I think that this is pretty much a wrap on this one....