Oregon 2016 GE Pres Results

[NOVA Green]

So, here is the current status of my attempt to drive into greater detail on the 2016 Presidential Election Results in Oregon by County.



The counties in Gray are ones already covered, and there are 5/36 remaining, and a relatively small number of precincts yet to examine.

The numbers listed are the order of my posts regarding those individual counties....

So, initially when I first started this project, not only did I have somewhat limited access to certain types of data, but also did not provide certain types of data from socio-economic profiles, comparision with US Senate and OR GOV elections and the like.

Gradually as I was able to pull different data sets, I began to include more and more information, as I would roll through different counties.

Eventually, towards the end, I started to incorporate visual images of various communities, not only in order to break up what was visually a very massive and dense block of text, but also attempt to provide a visual representation of the various communities to help provide a greater context, for those who have never spent much time travelling throughout Oregon....

So, as the internal customers (Atlas Forum Members), and apparently there are quite a few of you out there judging by the thread views, and unfortunately I can't ask the same question of external customers (Those that lurk on Atlas or whom simply google something involving Oregon 2016 election results and the thread pops up sometimes), I am trying to figure out where to go from here....


1.) Continue punching through with the last remaining five counties in the East

2.) Go back and start updating some of my initial County Updates to include all of the additional precinct level election data sets that I now have available, and throw in a bit of Demographic stats and a few pictures to "spruce it up".

A.) So let me explain... I now have full precinct level Presidential data from 1988, 1992, 2000, 2008, as well as 2012 and 2016. I also have precinct level data at the Presidential level for over half the Counties in Oregon from 2004.

B.) This obviously does not include various other precinct level data for US Senate and OR Gov elections

C.) At this time, I will not be considering requests to include data for US House, Statewide Elections (Other than OR GOV), or OR-House/OR-Senate races, since there is plenty of work to do with the existing project.


So, here is a map of counties that I consider in need of the most improvement (Dark Red), Moderate Upgrade (Purple/Violet), Medium Upgrade (Gray), Minor Upgrade (Yellow).



Please provide feedback as customers, or any special requests so that I can strive to improve and upgrade the thread in various manners.

[StevenShu]

Maybe I haven't noticed, but did you do Lake County? Thanks!

[NOVA Green]

Maybe I haven't noticed, but did you do Lake County? Thanks!

Welcome to the Forum!!!!

I did hit Lake Count in Page 5 on the thread, and although with additional data available could certainly do with an upgrade, is a bit further down on my "upgrade list" than some of the other counties....

Still--- interestingly enough you are the 2nd person interested in Lake County results, so I'll likely bump it up a few notches, and with a relatively small number of precincts and fewer chances of precinct boundary changes, could well be more likely do an "apples to apples" comparison from '88 to '16....

I'll see what I can do.   

[NOVA Green]

Since I haven't seen any inputs, I have decided to take Executive Action and revamp some of my earlier contributions, before moving forward with completing the last five counties in the State.

Oregon County Update #1- Curry County





This small county both in terms of population and landmass in many ways more closely resembles Del Norte County California than anywhere in Oregon.

Pop 22.4k--- MHI $39.5k/Yr

(MHI is low mainly because of a large retired population where there is little income and assets are invested into real estate)

Ethnicity- 88.1% White, 5.8% Latino, 3.8% Mixed (Among people 45+ 95% White)

Age- One of the highest % of 65+ in Oregon (28-32%)

Education- Among individuals 25+ years only 28% have more than a High School Degree

The large retiree population within Curry County are a mixture of Southern Oregon and Northern California transplants, many of whom are of relatively modest means that love the opportunity to practice their fly-fishing and enjoy the peace and beauty of the Southern Oregon Coast.

It should also be noted, that the percentage of Military Vetarans in also quite high in this country, especially Vietnam Era Vets..

The economic profile of the county has changed dramatically.... timber is no longer king as it used to be in terms of occupations and industry back in the late '80s and early '90s. Still, 7% of the workforce in Curry County is still in the Manufacturing Sector, of whom the vast majority are likely employed in the last remaining Mill in the County in Brookings, South Coast Lumber.

http://www.currypilot.com/csp/mediapool/sites/CurryPilot/News/story.csp?cid=4280951&sid=919&fid=151

https://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2013/05/28/timber-counties/

Election Results:

US President:

1988: (45 D- 53 R)                  +8  R  (Aftermath of the Reagan Recession in traditional Timber Country?)
1992: (35* D- 35 R- 30 Perot)       +0+ D  (Disgust with both DNC and the Pub Pres is yet another recession?)
1996: (38 D- 44 R- 18 Others)  + 6 R  (Dole benefits more than Clinton from Perot '92 Voters)
2000: (36 D- 57 R)                  +21 R  (Perot Voters break overwhelmingly Rep?)
2004: (41 D- 57 R)                  +16 R  (Nader voters come back bcs of Iraq?)
2008: (42 D- 54 R)                  +12 R  (Marginal drop-off of Pub numbers bcs of Iraq & Econ?)
2012: (40 D- 57 R)                  +17 R  (W. '00/'04 voters come home, econ isn't improving in WWC areas in County)
2016: (34 D- 57 R)                  +23 R  (Dem Left defects with HRC as Nom. Pub numbers constant. Min crossover?)

US Senate:

1990: (49 D- 51 R)                  + 2 R (Downstate Oregonian running against the legendary Rep Senator Mark Hatfield)
1992: (37 D- 62 R)                  +25 R (Packwood running against a "Portland Liberal Dem"
2002: (40 D- 57 R)                  +17 R
2004: (55 D- 40 R)                  +15 D (Wyden proves his chops downstate)
2008: (37 D- 56 R)                  +19 R (Pop Incum Pub in Rural Oregon loses bcs of the War)
2010: (44 D- 51 R)                  + 7 R ('10 Backlash against Dems post ACA hits Wyden?)
2014: (46 D- 47 R)                  + 1 R (With Gordon Smith is out, Southern Oregon Dem does well)
2016: (44 D- 46 R)                  + 2 R (Pub ekes out marginal win, Working Family Party- 3%, Indie anti Free-Trade 4%, Green 2%)

Pubs haven't won more than 51% of the vote in US Senate elections since 2008, despite it being a 57% Pub County at the Presidential level?

OR GOV:

1990: (39 D- 48 R- 11 OCA)     +  9 R
2002: (40 D- 54 R)                  + 14 R
2006: (41 D- 53 R)                  + 12 R
2010: (39 D- 56 R)                  + 17 R
2014: (41 D- 54 R)                  + 13 R
2016: (40 D- 52 R)                  + 12 R

Overall Gubernatorial numbers have been remarkably consistent over the years and fairly inelastic.


Fundamental takeaway is that Pub numbers at a Pres level have held contstant since 2000, Dem numbers dropped in '16 bcs of the lack of popularity with HRC, meanwhile Dem Senators are keeping it to virtually a tossup scenario.

Next stop will be a more detailed of election results by city/precinct within Curry County, Oregon.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #1: Curry County- Part II

Here is a map that indicates the major cities within the County to provide a frame of reference, as well as a County Precinct Map.





One of the cool things about Curry County, is that voting precincts don't appear to have changed from '88 > '16, making it a bit easier to do an "apples to apples" w/o having to deconstruct precinct lines, as is the case with some other counties in Oregon.

The only thing that is a bit unusual for Oregon, is that in '88 and '90 absentee ballots were split out seperately, but let's discuss that bridge once we get there.

Because most of the County is publically owned forest land, the bulk of the population lives along the Coastal areas, with 37% of the voters (and population) in '16 coming from the immediate Brookings area and an additional 14% from two smaller cities along the Coast.

I should also note, before I get too far along, that this is a County with historically one of the highest turnout rates in Oregon, so definitely not the county to discuss "hidden Trump voters" or "AVR surge of Democratic voters".

So, let's take a more detailed look at the various communities within the county, and election results over the years....


1.) Brookings- Pop 6.3k- MHI $ 43.4k- (24.5% of County Vote in '16)



26% of the population is 65+ Yrs, and jumps to 36% once you include 60+ Yrs.

The City is still overwhelmingly White, but slightly less so than the county as a whole with a slightly higher number of Latinos & Mixed Ethnicity (Census Bureau defs).

Education level is slightly higher than County average with 29% having > than a HS Diploma.

Occupations & Industries- As the main "population center" of the County certain occupations and industries are a bit higher than Countywide averages, namely health care related items stand out, as does Law Enforcement (The only 24x7 cop place in the entire county!, as well as being right down the road from Pelican Bay State Penitentury (Del Norte County California), and other items such as repair, maintenace, and facility. Unlike many other parts of the Oregon Coast, tourism isn't a major employer here, because this area is so remote and removed from major population centers.

As noted on the previous page, manufacturing/production is a bit higher here (~10% of the workforce) because of the South Coast Lumber Company, which is still the largest employer in the City.

So in theory Brookings as a fairly WWC older population blue collar town with the Mill being the largest employer, as well as a large law enforcement workforce should be a place where one might imagine large swings towards Trump.

Let's role the numbers to see if that bears out.

Election Results:

US President:

1988: (43 D- 55 R)                   +12 R     (*** This doesn't include absentee ballots which at a county level went 43 D- 55 R, so likely n/c)
1992: (30 D- 37 R- 32 Perot)         + 7 R     (Perot placed 2nd and actually won Precinct #16 which was tied for the largest precinct in the City in '88)
1996: *** Missing Data from Curry County       (Feel free to send if you have it)
2000: (35 D- 59 R-  4 Nader)         +24 R     (So it looks like 4% of the voters switched from D>R between '88 and '00)
2004: *** Missing Data from Curry County       (Feel free to send if you have it)
2008: (41 D- 56 R)                   +15 R     (2-3% Rep Voters moving Dem between '00 and '08?)
2012: (38 D- 58 R)                   +20 R     (3% Dem voters swing back to Rep)
2016: (31 D- 59 R)                   +28 R     (Basically no gain for the Pubs just Dem drop off to 3rd Party Candidates)



So, this is one of those classic examples that I have used elsewhere in the thread, about how in somewhat similar type communities, there was no real gain for Trump in '16, but rather voters that would not vote Republican, but were not able to vote for HRC).

Essentially Pub numbers have been relatively stagnant in the 55-60% range since '88, and it's only the Dem numbers that have oscillated wildly, but looks like 38-41% is the standard range.

Had a bit of a panic attack on this one, since one of my major data source files for '08 was corrupt on this County, but then remembered I had an Excel spreadsheet of Oregon Pres Precinct results that Alcon had sent me back in the days. Miss Alcon's presence on the Forum and the good old days of swapping precinct data sets.  

Although Perot performed extremely throughout most of Oregon, some of his best areas were Southern Oregon "Company Towns" hit really hard around this time.

US Senate:

1990: (49 D- 51 R)                  + 2 R
1992: (34 D- 66 R)                  +32 R
2010: (41 D- 54 R)                  +13 R
2014: (45 D- 47 R)                  + 2 R
2016: (42 D- 47 R)                  + 5 R



So interestingly enough Pubs underperformed significantly in '90, '14, and '16 in the US Senate Races, while in '14 and '16 you start to see an increasing number of voters defecting to the Left. Brookings saw 3% vote for the Working Family Party candidate, 2% for the Greens (Pacific Party), and 4% for an independent (Anti-Free Trade Moderate Republican).

OR Gov:

1990: (35 D- 55 R- 9 OCA)          +20 R
1994: (35 D- 60 R)                 +25 R (Most of the Pub votes consolidates including OCA splinters)
2010: (37 D- 58 R)                 +21 R
2014: (41 D- 53 R)                 +12 R
2016: (39 D- 53 R)                 +14 R

Man--- this is an interesting data set right here, looks like even in an older Mill Town in Southern Oregon Dem numbers have actually grown from the 1990s, and Pub numbers dropping dramatically.... Ok- might sound exciting or depressing to some depending upon Partisan ideology, but here you have many voters defecting to the Right on Gubernatorial elections going Constitutionalist and Libertarian.

Still it should be noted that in '90 there was a Republican Civil War in Oregon, with the Oregon Citizens Alliance (OCA) running independent candidates on an Evangelical Christian platform with Anti-Gay and Anti-Choice being a key part of their movement (Part of the reason the Portland 'Burbs started swinging heavily against the 'Pubs around this time). OCA is a whole other story, but ultimately is a major part of the reason why Oregon became a heavily Democratic State over the past few decades....

As I have mentioned before Upstate/Downstate dynamics are key when looking at election results for Oregon Governor, or other statewide offices.

I'll either add Harbor (Uninc area of Brookings) to this Update, or provide as part of the next round, since spent a little time running new precinct level data and creating a few charts on this upgraded election update.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #1- Curry County- Part III

2.) Harbor--- Pop 2.0k- MHI $26.1k   (13.6% of County Vote- 2016)



Harbor is an unincorporated community located right across the Chetco River from Brookings, and there is a slight variance between the Census Designated Place (CDP) and the info from statistical Atlas, so some of the demographic data might be slightly off compared to precinct boundary lines, but it should still give us a pretty good indicator of the community.

The community has vigorously resisted attempts at annexation into the town of Brookings for years and it has long been the hottest local political issue in the Brookings area.

http://www.currypilot.com/csp/mediapool/sites/CurryPilot/Opinion/story.csp?cid=4321658&sid=922&fid=151

http://www.currypilot.com/csp/mediapool/sites/CurryPilot/News/story.csp?cid=4253837&sid=919&fid=151

The community is considerably older than even the City of Brookings (40% 65+ and 53% 60+ 69% 50+) with at least three mobile home parks, and a decent size RV Park home to many year around residents.

It is an overwhelmingly White community 93.2% with a small Mixed and Native American population.

Educational attainment: 21.7% (> HS Diploma)--- Lower than the County as a whole.

A majority of the population 25-64 is not in the labor force, as well as a fairly high unemployment rate, particularly for Males of that age range.

Relative Industries: Management (2.2%), Transportation (11.4%), Agriculture (10.1%), Hospitality (20.6%), Utilities (2.0%), Other Services (11.5%), Government (7.3%)

Relative Occupations: Law Enforcement (4.7%), Farming (7.9%), Food Service (18.2%), Facilities (9.2%), Health Techs+ Support (7.4%), Administrative (18.5%)

Hospitality/ Food Service likely tied to the restaurants/hotels in the Harbor area, Farming/Agriculture likely connected to Fishing in the Port Area, Law Enforcement/Government impacted by Pelican Bay State Pen down the road over the California line.

Election Results:

US President:

1988: (44 D- 53 R)                  + 9 R    (Excludes absentees--- County absentees went (43 D- 55 R so numbers should be close)
1992: (37 D- 34 R- 29 Perot)        + 3 D
2000: (36 D- 57 R- 5 Nader)         +21 R    (Roughly 3% of voters switch from Dukakis to W... Perot Voters mostly break W.)
2008: (41 D- 55 R)                  +14 R    (Nader voters return... 2-3% of Dukakis '88 voters go McCain)
2012: (39 D- 58 R)                  +19 R    (2-3% of Obama '08 voters move to Romney)
2016: (35 D- 59 R)                  +24 R    (So Trump only gained 0.2% off of Romney--- 3rd Party Votes roughly 2:1 (Bernie/Green vs Lbt)



US Senate:

1990: (57 D- 43 R)                  +14 D
1992: (39 D- 61 R)                  +22 R
2010: (41 D- 52 R)                  +11 R    (3% Working Family Party)
2014: (43 D- 50 R)                  + 7 R    (4% Libertarian)
2016: (43 D- 48 R)                  + 5 R    (8% Combined Working Family Party, Greens, Progressive Party)



OR Gov:

1990: (41 D- 49 R- 8 OCA)           + 8 R    (OCA= Christian Conservative Party)
1994: (40 D- 55 R)                  +15 R    (5% Libertarian/American)
2010: (37 D- 57 R)                  +20 R    (6% Libertarian/Constitutionalist)
2014: (39 D- 57 R)                  +18 R    (4% LBT/CON/Green/Progressive)
2016: (41 D- 52 R)                  +11 R    (7% LBT/CON/Independent)

So overall, Harbor is a relatively decent bellweather for the County as a whole in Presidential elections, voting within a point or so of the average for all of the elections covered, and a bit more Democratic than neighboring Brookings.

Interestingly enough, there wasn't really a net gain for Trump, despite the older and WWC profile of voters here. Overall Pub numbers have only marginally ticked up between '00 and '16 at the Presidential level,

What is really interesting is the decline in support for US Senate Republican candidates... this particularly stands out in 2016, considering that virtually all of the 3rd Party support was running well to the Left of Ron Wyden.

The Gubernatorial results are more predictable for downstate Southern Oregon, and actually fairly closely mirror the Presidential numbers, especially if you factor in the 3rd Party support, which skews Conservative in these elections here. That being said, the 3rd Party Candidate who received the most votes in '16 can't be definited as "Conservative", and it is notable how Democratic Senate/Gov candidates in '16 well outpaced HRC numbers.

3.) Gold Beach--- Pop 2.4k-  MHI $47.1k   (9.5% of County Vote in 2016)



Age: 22% 65+, 33% 60+, 48% 50+              (Quite a bit "younger" than the County at large)
Education: 28.9% Higher than High School Diploma
Race/Ethnicity: 90.8% White, 3.0% Mixed, 2.5% Asian, 2.3% Latino
Industry: 18.9% Hospitality, 11.9% Construction, 17.5% Retail, 4.3% Transportation, 4.2% Finance
Occupations: Construction 10.1%, Food Service 10.4%, Social Svcs 3.1%, Production 8.7%, Personal Care 5.8%

Interestingly enough despite being the seat of the County Government, the economic profile of Gold Beach is much more tied to tourism than elsewhere in Curry County. Starting in 1896 fly-fishing started to take off along the mouth of the Rogue River, and to this day remains a popular destination for fishing enthusiasts from throughout the region, and the United States.

The Rogue River has a wild and scenic river designation, where it moves down from the Mountains of the Kalmiopsis Wilderness Area all the way to the ocean. There is actually still a US Mail Boat the navigates the River delivering mail to rural residents in otherwise fairly rugged and inaccessible areas.

It is a hidden gem on the Oregon Coast, and if any of y'all are planning on heading down there, I would strongly suggesting taking a Week to properly enjoy the experience.

I was a bit surprised to see Construction as one of the highest relative industries & occupations, although it actually makes sense if you consider that being located roughly halfway along the counties coastline, it lowers your commuting time when bidding on construction gigs.

I'm not that surprised to see Production up there in terms of occupations, since it's only a 30 minute drive to the South Coast Lumber Mill in Brookings, which is not only the largest employer in the County, but also one of the better paying places to work.

So, although you have a town that has a much higher income than Brookings, 40% of the population still lives in households making <$30k/Yr, and as I noted previously the MHI data from the Brookings area is distorted because such a large % of the population are retirees.

Time to take a look at election results....

US President:

1988: (45 D- 53 R)               + 8 R
1992: (40 D- 36 R- 24 Perot)     + 4 D
2000: (38 D- 54 R- 5 Nader)      +16 R    (1% Dukakis Voters > George W. '00)
2008: (45 D- 51 R)               + 6 R    (Basically a reset to '88)
2012: (43 D- 53 R)               +10 R    (2% Obama '08 > Romney '12)
2016: (33 D- 57 R)               +24 R    (Here we def have a swing 4% Obama '12> Trump '16---- 5% voted Bernie/Green, 5% LBT)



US Senate:

1990: (38 D- 62 R)              +24 R     (Wowzers--- Pretty much the most Republican place in the County here!)
1992: (35 D- 65 R)              +30 R     (A couple points more Pub than the County at large)
2010: (50 D- 45 R)              + 5 D     (Now one of the more Democratic places in the County--- 2:1 Left-Right on 3rd Party)
2014: (44 D- 46 R)              + 2 R     (Interesting--- roughly 2:1 Right-Left on 3rd Party)
2016: (45 D- 43 R)              + 2 D     (Hmmm- Roughly 4:1 Left-Right on 3rd Party)



OR GOV:

1990: (39 D- 50 R- 11 OCA)      +11 R
1994: (42 D- 55 R)              +13 R
2010: (42 D- 53 R)              +11 R   (3rd Party CON/LBT)
2014: (39 D- 54 R)              +15 R   (3rd Party 50-50 Left-Right)
2016: (39 D- 52 R)              +13 R   (3rd Party Mixed)

So what to make of all this?

1.) Gold Beach appears to be a bit more elastic than Brookings/Harbor, likely because the population is not overwhelmingly dominated by retirees
2.) There was a significant increase in voters between '12 and '16, so in addition to Obama '12> Trump '16 voters, either voters that voted in '08, and not '12, did in '16 and swung heavily Trump, and possibly AVR played a factor. Any way you look at it, this is the best result for a Pub Presidential candidate here since '84.
3.) The town is increasingly shifting Democratic at the US Senate level, with Republican numbers stuck in the 43-46% range, and in '10 and '16 most of the defection is to the Left, meaning there must be a significant number of cross-over Republicans voting for Liberal Democratic US Senators.
4.) Not so surprised by the Gubernatorial results... Dem numbers stuck between 39-42%, Pub numbers 50-55%. What is interesting is the dramatic increase between '10 and '16 of the % of voters selecting 3rd Party Candidates.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #1: Curry County Part IV

So we have already covered 47% of the County votes in the preceding posts, and now it's time to take survey of some of the remaining areas.

4. ) Port Orford--- MHI $ 30.2k--- Pop 1.2--- (5.2% of '16 County Vote)




Age: 28% 65+ Years, ~40% 60+ Years
Education: 25.9% > HS Diploma, 12.0% No HS Diploma
Race/Ethnicity: 93.3% White
Employment/Food Stamps: 35.4% 24-65 Yrs Employed, 32.1% Food Stamps
Occupations: Farming 14.0%, Facilities 10.9%, Food Services 14.0%
Industries: Agriculture 21.5%, Government 11.9%

Port Orford is predominately a small commercial fishing town which is the mainstay of the local economy (Agriculture and Farming includes fishing related components), with tourism as an important secondary component.

It is also the most reliably Democratic Part of Curry County over the past 30 years, and unlike many other parts of Southern Oregon, the Timber Industry is a minimal component of the local economy. In fact, during the days of the "Timber Wars", fishing dependent communities along the Oregon Coast were generally strong supporters of modifying logging practices within the State, since there was a direct correlation between declining commercial (and recreational) fishing harvests along the Oregon Coast, as a result of damage to key watersheds caused by clear-cutting practices over preceding decades.

US Presidential Results:

1988: 425 Votes   (53.4 D- 43.1 R)                       +10.3 D
1992: 548 Votes   (41.1 D- 28.1 R- 30.8 Perot)      +13.0 D    (Perot places 2nd!!!)
2000: 601 Votes   (46.9 D- 44.6 R- 5.5 Nader)       + 2.3 D    (Improvements for 'Pubs over '88)
2008: 653 Votes   (55.1 D- 40.4 R)                       +14.7 D   (Voter Surge)
2012: 587 Votes   (50.9 D- 44.1 R)                       + 6.8 D
2016: 640 Votes   (46.1 D- 43.6 R)                       + 2.5 D    (+3.3% R Swing)

So looking at the data it appears that there was a significant # of Obama '08/ Trump '16 Voters, amounting to maybe 3% of the electorate. The "surge" between '12 and '16 doesn't appear to have benefited the Republican candidate in terms of raw %, since the swing already happened in 2012, a pattern I have commented on many times elsewhere on this thread.

The other thing to note is the ornery nature of the residents of the town, with relatively consistently high levels of support for 3rd Party Candidates.




US Senate Results:

1990: (56.8 D- 43.2 R)       +13.6 D           (Lonsdale ran partially on an environmentalist platform)
1992: (50.3 D- 49.7 R)       +0.6 D
2008: (48.2 D- 45.0)         + 3.2 D
2010: (54.5+ D- 39.5+ R)  +15.0 D
2014: (53.6 D- 36.9 R)       +16.7 D
2016: (54.4 D- 33.5+ R)     +20.9 D

Note how support for Republican US Senate candidates has been slipping dramatically each election over the past four cycles.




OR- GOV

1990: (48.0 D- 36.1 R- 14.1 OCA)   + 11.9 D        (OCA= Religious Right)
1994: (47.1 D- 44.7 R)                  + 2.4 D
2010" (50.3 D- 46.3 R)                  + 4.0 D
2014: (51.0 D- 40.5 R)                 +10.5 D
2016: (53.0 D- 38.8 R)                 +14.2 D

Interesting, so we see a similar trend at the Gubernatorial level, of the City shifting Democratic, which is actually a bit unusual for many parts of rural Oregon.




5.) Elk River---- (4.7% of County Vote '16)

Rural precinct outside of Port Orford. Detailed demographic details not available



US President:

1988: 358 Votes--- (58.7 D- 38.0 R)                      +20.7 D
1992: 491 Votes--- (41.1 D- 30.3 R- 28.5 Perot)     +10.8 D
2000: 527 Votes--- (44.4 D- 45.5 R- 7.6 Nader)      + 1.1 R
2008: 592 Votes--- (56.8 D- 39.4 R)                      +17.4 D
2012: 566 Votes--- (53.2 D- 42.6 R)                      +10.6 D
2016: 593 Votes--- (44.2 D- 43.8 R)                      +  0.4 D     (+9.2% R Swing)

So again similar pattern, bulk of Obama '08 swing happens towards Romney in '12. There was a marginal swing towards Trump in '16, as well, but he still fell short of W. '00 numbers




US Senate:

1990: (54.6 D- 45.4 R)        + 9.2 D
1994: (47.6 D- 52.4 R)       + 4.8  R
2008: (51.8 D- 43.0 R)       + 8.8  D
2010: (55.5 D- 40.5 R)       +15.0 D
2014: (55.9 D- 36.5 R)       +19.4 D
2016: (50.0 D- 36.4 R)       +13.6 D

At the US Senate level, this rural area has been increasingly shifting towards the Democratic Party, with Merkley outperforming Wyden's % if you compare '14 and '16 results.


OR Gov:

1990: (43.0 D- 35.2 R- 18.5 OCA)    +  7.8 D
1994: (44.5 D- 55.5 R)                    + 11.0 R
2010: (54.9 D- 42.2 R)                    + 12.7 D
2014: (50.0 D- 42.9 R)                    +  7.1 D
2016: (50.8 D- 42.5 R)                    +  8.3 D

So interestingly enough, this is a Democratic leaning rural precinct at the Gubernatorial level, which again makes Clinton's poor performance at the Presidential level noteworthy.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #1 Curry County: Part V

So what about the remainder of the County, since we still have 44% of the '16 Votes outstanding?

We have two precincts right outside of Brookings

6.) Harris Creek / North Chetco---    (5.5% County Vote 2016)



Census data not available. Because of their proximity to the Ocean, and real estate values, these precincts are likely to be even older and higher level income than Brookings or Harbor.

US Presidential Results:

1988:  528 Votes (40.9 D- 57.0 R)                  + 16.1 R (Worst performance for Dukakis in Curry)
1992:  685 Votes (27.4 D- 40.4 R- 32.1 Perot)  + 13.0 R      (Perot Places 2nd)
2000:  703 Votes (28.0 D- 65.6 R- 4.4 Nader)   + 37.6 R     (Wow--- look at those margins!)
2008:  717 Votes (40.9 D- 55.1 R)                    + 14.2 R
2012:  692 Votes (37.9 D- 58.1 R)                     +20.2 R   (+6.0% R Swing from '08)
2016:  699 Votes (32.6 D- 59.5 R)                    + 26.9 R   (+6.7% R Swing from '12)

US Senate:

1990: (43.3 D- 56.7 R)                   + 13.4 R
1992: (30.0 D- 70.0 R)                   + 40.0 R
2008: (34.0 D- 57.4 R)                    +23.4 R
2010: (40.1 D- 54.6 R)                   + 14.5 R    
2014: (44.6 D- 46.9 R)                   +  2.3 R      (+21.1% D Swing from '08 > Merkley)
2016: (43.7 D- 47.3 R)                   +  3.6 R      (+10.9% D Swing from '10 > Wyden)

So Liberal Dem Senators are quite popular here over the past few years....

OR Gov:

1990: (31.3 D- 56.5 R- 10.4 OCA)   + 25.2 R
1994: (31.9 D- 61.5 R)                   + 29.6 R
2010: (34.8 D- 60.0 R)                   + 25.2 R
2014: (41.9 D- 53.6 R)                   + 11.7 R     (+13.5% D Swing '10>'14)
2016: (38.5 D- 54.1 R)                   + 15.6 R     (+3.9% R Swing '14>'16)

So interestingly enough increasingly a slide in support for Republican Senatorial and Gubernatorial candidates since 2010, even as the 'Pub share of the Presidential vote has increased from '08>'16.

7.) Sixes---  (1.5% County Vote 2016)



There isn't tons of agriculture in Curry County, other than forestry and fishing, but this precinct is known for its Cranberry production. The price of Cranberries has collapsed 42% between 2012 and 2016, and many Cranberry producers attribute that to a dramatic increase in imports from Canada. In 2014 the Department of Agriculture rejected a request from the Industry for volume controls, and many of these small family farmers are suffering as a result of stagnant demand and excessive production. Most Oregon Cranberry producers are independents and not associated with the Ocean Spray Cooperative.

http://uscranberries.com/Images/News/GeneralFolder/EIReport20140814.pdf

US President:

1988: 166 Votes (44.0 D- 51.2 R)                         +  7.2 R
1992: 182 Votes (39.0 D- 35.2 R- 25.8 Perot)        +  3.8 D
2000: 184 Votes (33.2 D- 58.7 R- 3.3 Nader)         + 25.5 R
2008: 192 Votes (35.4 D- 58.3 R)                         + 22.9 R
2012: 165 Votes (30.3 D- 64.8 R)                         + 34.5 R     (+11.6% R Swing >'08)
2016: 179 Votes (29.1 D- 67.0 R)                         + 37.9 R     (+ 3.4% R Swing> '12)


US Senate:

1990: (41.2 D- 58.8 R)                                        + 17.6 R
1992: (39.2 D- 60.8 R)                                        + 21.6 R
2008: (28.6 D- 62.7 R)                                        + 34.1 R
2010: (36.1 D- 56.3 R)                                        + 20.2 R
2014: (41.7 D- 54.0 R)                                        + 12.3 R         (+21.8% D Swing> '08)
2016: (34.3 R- 56.0 R)                                        + 21.7 R         (+ 1.5% R Swing > '10)


OR Gov:

1990: (29.7 D- 36.5 R- 31.8 OCA)                        +  6.8 R  (Dem's place 3rd behind OCA)
1994: (30.7 D- 61.5 R)                                        + 30.8 R
2010: (31.6 D- 63.9 R)                                        + 32.8 R
2014: (34.1 D- 62.3 R)                                        + 28.2 R
2016: (30.9 D- 60.1 R)                                        + 29.2 R


I'm curious to see if there is a similar pattern in major cranberry producing areas in Wisconsin and Maine.... it is notable that Democratic Senator Merkley performed so well here in '14, compared to any other Democrat since Dukakis.

8.) South Chetco- (3.4% of County Vote- 2016)



Located in a sprawling precinct that covers significant acreage within the Southern Curry portion of the Siskiyou National Forest, much of the population of this precinct has current or historical connections between the logging industry of the region, or are private landowners that have increasingly filled the gap in Oregon Timber production with decreased harvests from publicly owned lands over the past 3-4 decades.

US President:

1988: (47.4 D- 49.6 R)                       +  2.2 R   (One of Dukakis best precincts)
1992: (28.7 D- 29.5 R- 41.8 Perot)      +  0.8 R   (Damn--- Perot got 42%?)
2000: (27.4 D- 65.2 D- 4.9 Nader)       + 37.8 R  (Worse than Clinton in '92???)
2008: (32.5 D- 64.4 D)                       + 31.9 R
2012: (33.2 D- 61.5 R)                       + 28.3 R  ( + 3.6% D Swing from '08???)
2016: (33.3 D- 56.9 R)                       + 23.6 R  ( +4.7% D Swing from '12???)

US Senate:

1990: (50.0 D- 50.0 D)                       +   0 D/R  (Dem Lonsdale did well in Timber Country)
1992: (30.8 D- 69.2 R)                       + 38.4 R
2008: (27.8 D- 65.8 R)                       + 38.0 R
2010: (33.8 D- 59.5 R)                       + 25.7 R
2014: (40.1 D- 53.5 R)                       + 13.4 R      (+ 24.6% D Swing from '08)
2016: (44.3 D- 44.1 R)                       +  0.2 D       (+ 25.9% D Swing from '10)


OR GOV:

1990: (30.9 D- 57.4 R- 10.3 OCA)    + 26.5 R       
1994: (26.6 D- 66.8 R)                    + 40.2 R
2010: (27.8 D- 66.1 R)                    + 38.3 R
2014: (37.0 D- 59.8 R)                    +22.8 R
2016: (40.6 D- 51.4 R)                    + 10.8 R

So here you have a rural, heavily logging dependent precinct that is rapidly swinging away from the Republican party, especially at the US Senate and OR- Governor level. Dem Presidential levels have remained stagnant, but the Pubs have lost 7.6% of their vote share since '08.

[Liberalrocks]

Nova, I am a guy from Los Angeles so I dont know much about Oregon. This read was very informative and I can tell you really researched this so I wanted to compliment you on this particularly work on Curry County. While I would not necessarily want to live there, the coastal pics are very beautiful, clean etc. It would be great to visit.

[NOVA Green]

Nova, I am a guy from Los Angeles so I dont know much about Oregon. This read was very informative and I can tell you really researched this so I wanted to compliment you on this particularly work on Curry County. While I would not necessarily want to live there, the coastal pics are very beautiful, clean etc. It would be great to visit.

Thanks Liberalrocks--- appreciate the feedback!!!

Oregon precinct results have been a hobby of mine for almost 30 years now, and happy that there are some people that are enjoying the work that I've been doing on this, especially now that I'm adding some additional data and context as part of a 2.0 version, as well as incorporating some visual elements to make for an easier read.

Regarding the LA area, I feel the same, I have always enjoyed visiting, and have some family living down there, but not really sure it's a place I would want to live....

[NOVA Green]

Ok-- So as part of this project, I am working through upgrades on some of my older postings to incorporate additional data sets and visuals, and decided to continue with a neighboring County in SW Oregon.

Oregon County Update # 5: Coos County





Pop 62.8k--- MHI 37.9k/Yr

As I posted on my initial update on Coos County, this was a classic New Deal Democratic County that remained so until very recently.

(This should hyperlink to the original post earlier in the thread, so I don't need to go through regurgitating my description of Coos County)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5413788#msg5413788

The International Port of Coos Bay was built during WW II as part of the War Effort. Afterwards, it was a critical link in a supply chain that would ship logs from Southwest Oregon to Mills throughout the West Coast and abroad.

The Coos Bay/ North Bend area accounts for a significant chunk of the County's population, but there is still a significant rural population involved in Non-Timber/Fishing related agricultural activities.

It is a County where younger people tend to leave for economic opportunities elsewhere, as the decent paying jobs in the Port and Mills have increasingly dried up, to be replaced by low paying jobs in retail, tourism, or the local Casino.

So let's see historically how the County has voted from 1932 to 2016 to get an idea of not only how dramatically the Republican share of the vote has grown since 2000, but perhaps even more importantly how much of a collapse Clinton experienced in 2016, the lowest support by far for a Democratic Presidential Candidate in 84 Years....



The only silver linings for Democrats is that Obama was able to keep Republican support at right around the 50% level in '08/'12, so I wouldn't consider Coos County completely gone at the Presidential level, despite the popularity of W. and Trump at the ballot box.

Here is the graph for '88 to '16:



Reagan barely won the County in '84, so this isn't an issue of the mythical WWC Reagan Democrats, but more about the failure of the Democratic Party at a Presidential Level to address the structural economic issues and concerns in communities like this across the United States.

So, here is a graph that shows the total vote for President from '88 to '16, to see how that has changed over time. The spike in '04 really stands out, as does a bit of a jump in '16.



So, let's take a look briefly at some of the demographic data of the County....

Age: (22% 65+,  31% 60+)
Race/Ethnicity: 86.5% White, 4.9% Latino, 3.6% Mixed, 2.7% Other (Native American)
Employment/ Food Stamps: 45.3% 24-65 Employed--- 22.4% Food Stamps
Relative Occupations:  1.3% Law Enforcement, 7.6% Personal Care, 3.5% Material Movement, 2.9% Farming, 3.3% Health Care Support, 4.7% Facilities, 5.2% Construction, 3.5% Repair, 3.9% Transportation.

Industries: 4.6% Entertainment, 5.2% Agriculture, 6.9% Gvt, 4.2% Transportation, 15.0% Retail.
Education: 26.2% > HS Degree, 12.0% No HS Degree

Ok--- so how has Coos County voted for US Senator over the past Decade or so???



So even as it has been moving Republican at the Presidential level, no Republican has gained over 50% of the Vote since 2002!

In fact both Ron Wyden won in '10 Jeff Merkley won in '14....  There was a swing towards the 'Pub Senate nominee in '16, but almost all of that was a defection to the Left against Wyden.

Oregon Gubernatorial results: 1994 to 2016:



So this graph perhaps represents best the gradual slippage of Democratic support in the County, especially with 2016 being a rare overlap Governor/Presidential election in Oregon, where in theory increased voter turnout should benefit down-ballot Democratic candidates.... There were some local issues that might have impacted Dem Gov performance in '16, so is Coos starting to solidly realign at the Gov level or was '16 a fluke?

Realignments don't happen overnight, and there is a good chance that many of the swing voters that went W. in '00 and '04/ Obama in '08/'12 and Trump '16, might well return back to the Democratic fold for the US Presidential and US Senate Elections in 2020.

Let's take a look at how Coos County voted for various Ballot measures over the past few Decades:

1988: Ballot Measure #8


Overturning Democratic Governor's ban on discrimination against LGBT State employees
Yes--- 46.3 %   No- 53.7%

This passed by Oregon Voters 53-47 YES....

Coos County voted against LGBT discrimination for State employees.

1990: Ballot Measure # 8: Prohibit Abortion With Three Exception (Rape, Incest, Medical)

Coos--- 67% No
Oregon--- 68 % No

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Prohibition_of_Abortion_and_Exceptions,_Measure_8_(1990)

1990: Mandatory Parental Notification for Minor's Performing Abortions

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Notice_to_Minor%E2%80%99s_Parents_Before_an_Abortion,_Measure_10_(1990)

Coos-- 52% Yes
Oregon- 52 % No

2004: Ballot Measure # 36: Amends Constitution "One Man One Woman Marriage"


https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Marriage_Measure_36_(2004)

Coos- 66 % Yes
Oregon- 57% Yes

2006: Ballot Measure #43- 48 Hour Parental Notification for Minors Receiving Abortions


https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Ballot_Measure_43,_Parental_Notification_for_a_Minor%27s_Abortion_(2006)

Oregon: 55 % NO
Coos:    49% NO

2008: Ballot Measure # 58: Prohibits teaching school kids in language other than English for > 2 yrs

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Public_School_English_Immersion,_Measure_58_(2008)

OR: 56%       NO
Coos: 50+ % NO

2010: Ballot Measure # 74- Establish Medical Marijuana Supply System and Limited Self-Use


https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Regulated_Medical_Marijuana_Supply_System_Act,_Measure_74_(2010)

OR: 56% NO
Coos: 61% NO

2010: Ballot Measure # 66: Increases Taxes on Households > $250k

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Tax_Hike_Vote,_Measure_66_(January_2010)

OR: 54% YES
Coos: 47% YES

2012: Ballot Measure #80: Legalizes Personal Use and Cultivation of Marijuana

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Cannabis_Tax_Act_Initiative,_Measure_80_(2012)

OR: 53% NO
Coos: 56% NO

2014: Ballot Measure #88 : Allows Oregon DL w/o Proof of US Residence


https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Alternative_Driver_Licenses_Referendum,_Measure_88_(2014)

OR: 66% NO
Coos: 79% NO

2014: Ballot Measure # 91: Legalize Marijuana

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Legalized_Marijuana_Initiative,_Measure_91_(2014)

OR: 56 % Yes
Coos: 54% YES

So, interestingly enough, Coos County is actually much more Liberal than Oregon as a whole, once you remove the three counties of Metro Portland, when it comes to social issues.

Foreign Policy wise it tends to be a dovish and Non-Interventionist, despite a pretty decent % of Military Veterans.

It's pretty clear that the swing towards the Republican Party over the past few decades is predominately caused by a perception that statewide and Democratic Presidential candidates are prioritizing the environment at the expense of jobs.

Although this is certainly a debatable proposition, the County has been fighting hard to get a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal at the Port of Coos Bay for years, that would add an additional ~170 permanent jobs plus ~400 construction jobs, and have met with resistance from both the Obama Administration, as well as the Democratic Government in Salem....

The Timber Wars are mostly over in Oregon, but the legacy still lives on in a localized form in Coos County, which just this past May voted overwhelmingly to allow the LNG terminal at the Port in order to move Natural Gas along the pipeline that has already been constructed between Coos Bay and Roseburg.







 

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #5: Coos County: Part II

Ok--- let's start with the largest population Centers...

1.) Coos Bay--- Pop 16.0k--- MHI $ 34.9k   (21.7% of County Vote--- 2016)



Coos Bay is the largest City on the Oregon Coast, which might come as a surprise to many Oregonians from the major population Centers of Metro Portland and the Willamette Valley more familiar with places like Astoria, Lincoln City, & Newport, and when you add in the neighboring sister city of North Bend, is actually a decent sized population Center in its own right.

As I mentioned previously, the local economy has historically, and still is, heavily tied to Port related activities, historically directly tied to exporting raw timber, and woodchips to international markets.

More recently, employment is increasingly connected to a large Casino along the Bay Front that attracts retirees from throughout Southern Oregon, as well as work in the medical sector with a large regional hospital.

The population of the City declined significantly between 1980 and 1990, and although population loss has stabilized, it's still a minimal growth region compared to most other cities in Oregon.

Let's take a look at the demographics of the City....

Age: 20% 65+, 26% 60+, 12% 18-22 (Slightly higher than average because of the Community College in town). Only 21% is in the critical 30-49 year range, likely because of the lack of decent paying jobs that can support a family.
Race/Ethnicity: 80.6% White, 8.1% Latino, 3.3% Mixed, 3.1% Black, 2.8% Other, 2.0% Asian
Employment/Food Stamps: 46.2% 25-64 employed; 28.5% Food Stamps
Relative Occupations: 5.3% Material Movement; 9.2% Personal Care; 3.5% Social Svcs; 5.7% Transportation; 4.0% Repair; 4.5% Facilities;
Industries: 7.5% Entertainment; 8.0% Gvt; 2.8% Information; 18.4% Healthcare;
Education: 29.3% > HS (22.0% BA or greater); 11.5% No HS Degree

Here's a pretty decent and succinct historical summary of the region for anyone interested in more reading of Coos County, and in particular the growing role of the Coos Bay & North Bend as an economic driver, but still closely linked to the rural economy...

http://www.partnershipforcoastalwatersheds.org/a-brief-overview-of-the-coos-bay-areas-economic-and-cultural-history/

So, time to take a look at election results in the City of Coos Bay....

Precinct boundaries remained unchanged from '88 through '00, and consolidated '02-'16.

US President:

1988: 5853 Votes    (57.5 D- 39.9 R)                         + 17.6% D
1992: 6854 Votes    (44.1 D- 30.6 R- 25.2 Perot)        + 13.5% D   (Turnout Spike)
2000: 6474 Votes    (45.2 D- 47.0 R-  5.7 Nader)        +  1.8% R    (Nader's Vote!)
2004: 7591 Votes    (48.2 D- 49.9 R)                         +  1.7% R
2008: 6853 Votes    (52.8 D- 43.1 R)                         +  9.7% D    (+11.4% D Swing > '04)
2012: 6236 Votes    (51.8 D- 44.1 R)                         +  7.7% D    (+2.0% R Swing > '08)
2016: 6921 Votes    (40.3 D- 48.9 R)                         +  8.6% R    (+16.3% R Swing > '12)

Here's a graph to put it into more of a visual format...



The 2016 numbers are catastrophic for Democrats, in what has remained to be somewhat of a Democratic stronghold over the past three decades.

HRC performing much worse than Al Gore here is not good news, in a City that is relatively Liberal on Social issues, centrist with Dovish strains on Foreign Policy, and strong populist progressive impulse on Economic Policy.

I suspect that this will be solidly reversed in 2020 with a different Democrat at the top of the ticket. The voters of Coos Bay want a major infrastructure investment in the Port, which is the best Pacific Ocean Port between the Bay Area in Northern California and Puget Sound in Washington State.

They don't care about "Trump's Wall", "God, Gays, and Guns" are minor issues here, and the last thing they want is destruction of Medicaid, which now accounts for 1/4 Oregonians Medical Insurance... It's all about decent paying jobs in a Port City, which has faced hard economic times over the past four decades.

US Senate:

1992: (45.0 D- 55.0 R)           + 10.0 R
2002: (40.8 D- 53.5 R)           + 12.7 R
2004: (59.6 D- 35.4 R)           + 26.1 D
2008: (45.0 D- 46.8 R)           +  1.8 R         (+11.9% swing towards the Dems '02>'08)
2010: (55.6 D- 39.1 R)           + 16.5 D
2014: (55.3 D- 36.0 R)           + 19.3 D         (+20.8% Swing towards Merkley '08>'14)
2016: (49.9 D- 38.7 R)           + 11.2 D         (+ 5.3% Swing towards Rep '10>'16)



OR GOV:

1994: (49.0 D- 44.4 R)         + 4.6 D
2002: (49.9 D- 43.8 R)         + 6.1 D
2006: (48.8 D- 43,3 R)         + 5.5 D
2010: (47.8 D- 47.4 R)         + 0.4 D
2014: (49.1 D- 44.0 R)         + 5.1 D
2016: (44.7 D- 46.7 R)         + 2.0 R



So, several things to observe... Wyden's numbers have been slipping every election since 2004. Much have that defection has been the Left, with almost 10% voting for the Working Families Party, Greens, and for an Independent in 2016, and Republican numbers have barely changed.

Looking at the '08 Senate numbers helps explain why Gordon Smith (R-OR) narrowly lost to Merkley in Oregon. Rejection of the "Moderate Republican" from ancestral working-class Democratic strongholds that had increasingly shifted Republican. Merkley's 2014 numbers are actually pretty interesting here, and indicate that a Progressive Economic populist message still resonates in many of these communities.

The Oregon Gubernatorial numbers are also interesting, mainly because of how relatively static they have been, even as the County at large has been shifting Republican. The '16 numbers were on the high end of a Republican here, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out in '18.

[The Govanah Jake]

Can you do Grant County next if you haven't done already?

[NOVA Green]

So, in order to make this thread easier to navigate, I have decided to compile an alphabetical list by County with a hyperlink to the County Updates, as an index and will try to pin to the front of the thread.

I started this as a small project, and it increasingly expanded as I located precinct data-sets, so tons of these need a reboot, not to mention a greater mix of visuals, graphs, with fewer large dense text blocks....

So here's a starting index.

Baker County---- County Update # 28:

Part I: Overview & Baker City
       
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5625521#msg5625521

Part II: Huntington & Rural

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5625617#msg5625617

Benton County: County Update # 3

Part I: Overview & Corvallis

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5411043#msg5411043

Part II: North Albany, Philomath, & Rural

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5411091#msg5411091

Clackamas County: County Update # 23:

Part I: Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5507795#msg5507795

Part II: "Inner Dem Suburbs" : Milwaukee, Gladstone, Oregon City

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5509677#msg5509677

Part III: "Wealthier Clack Suburbs": Lake Oswego, West Linn,

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5512900#msg5512900

Part IV: Exurban Clackamas County: Wilsonville, Happy Valley, Sandy, & Canby

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5514303#msg5514303

Part V: Uninc Clackamas County

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5517606#msg5517606

Part VI: Rural Clackamas County

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5522480#msg5522480

Clatsop County: County Update #4

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5412428#msg5412428

Columbia County: County Update # 7:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5417454#msg5417454

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5421432#msg5421432

Coos County: County Update # 5

Version 1.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5413788#msg5413788

Version 2.0

Part I: County Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5754596#msg5754596

Part II: Coos Bay

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5756302#msg5756302

Crook County: County Update #31:

Part I: Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5669616#msg5669616

Part II: Prineville

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5679492#msg5679492

Part III: Prineville Split Precincts

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5690476#msg5690476

Part IV: Rural Crook County

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5696081#msg5696081

Curry County: County Update #1:

Version 1.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5406140#msg5406140

Version 2.0

Part I: County Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5718684#msg5718684

Part II: Brookings

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5721386#msg5721386

Part III: Harbor & Gold Beach

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5723675#msg5723675

Part IV: Port Orford & Elk River

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5751373#msg5751373

Part V: Rural Curry

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5752827#msg5752827

Deschutes County: Oregon Update # 8:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5419852#msg5419852

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5419902#msg5419902

Douglas County: Oregon Update # 18

Part I: County Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5456195#msg5456195

Part II: Roseburg & Towns

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5457206#msg5457206

Part III: Rural Douglas

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5457681#msg5457681

Gilliam County: Oregon Update # 25

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5599316#msg5599316

Grant County: NOT YET COVERED

Harney County: NOT YET COVERED

Hood River County: Oregon Update # 11

Part I: Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5439329#msg5439329

Part II: Hood River City and Towns

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5439695#msg5439695

Jackson County: Oregon Update # 19

Part I: Overview & Medford

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5483203#msg5483203

Part II: Ashland

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5483403#msg5483403

Part III: Small Town Jackson County (Talent, Phoenix, Jacksonville, Central Point, Eagle Point, Misc)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5484972#msg5484972

Part IV: Rural Jackson County

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5486721#msg5486721

Jefferson County: Oregon Update # 9

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5423981#msg5423981

Josephine County: Oregon Update # 12

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5441608#msg5441608

Klamath County- NOT YET COVERED

Lake County- Oregon County Update # 22

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5505702#msg5505702

Lane County- Oregon Update # 14

Part I: Overview and Eugene-Springfield

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5447733#msg5447733

Part II: Uninc Eugene-Springfield

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5448704#msg5448704

Part III: Rural Lane County

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5449549#msg5449549

Part IV: Cottage Grove, Florence, Junction City, Oakridge

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5449775#msg5449775

Lincoln County: Oregon County Update # 13

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5442916#msg5442916

Linn County: Oregon County Update # 21

Part I: Overview & Albany

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5498005#msg5498005

Part II: Lebanon and Sweet Home

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5500112#msg5500112

Part III: Small Town and Rural

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5502334#msg5502334

Malheur County: NOT COVERED YET

Marion County: Oregon County Update #2

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5409873#msg5409873

Morrow County: Oregon Update # 26

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5608335#msg5608335

Multnomah County: Oregon Update # 10

Part I: County Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5428012#msg5428012

Part II: West Multnomah County (HD-27, 31, 33, 35, 36, 38)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5429385#msg5429385

Part III: Inner East Portland (HD-41, 42, 43, 44)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5432017#msg5432017

Part IV: Hollywood Area (HD-46)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5436138#msg5436138

Part V: East Multco (East Portland, Gresham, Troutdale)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5437199#msg5437199

Part VI: Most of Gresham

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5437205#msg5437205

Polk County: Oregon County Update #18

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5480145#msg5480145

Sherman County: Oregon Update # 24:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5597664#msg5597664

Tillamook County: Oregon Update #20:

Part I: Overview & Towns

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5492120#msg5492120

Part II: Rural Tillamook

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5494023#msg5494023

Umatilla County: Oregon Update #29

Part I: County Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5635818#msg5635818

Part II: Pendleton and Hermison

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5637515#msg5637515

Part III: Milton-Freewater and Umatilla City

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5644680#msg5644680

Part IV: Rural Umatilla

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5646265#msg5646265

Union County: Oregon Update # 30

Part I: County Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5648032#msg5648032

Part II: LaGrande

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5655612#msg5655612

Part III: Uninc Towns

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5658662#msg5658662

Part IV: Rural Areas

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5659758#msg5659758

Wallowa County: NOT YET COVERED

Wasco County: Oregon Update # 15

Part I: Overview and The Dalles

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5453027#msg5453027

Part II: Rural Wasco County

Washington County: Update # 17

Part I: Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5463343#msg5463343

Part II: Beaverton

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5465967#msg5465967

Part III: Tigard

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5467416#msg5467416

Part IV: Hillsboro

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5470211#msg5470211

Part V: Tualatin, Sherwood, Forest Grove

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5471478#msg5471478

Part VI: Uninc Washington County

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5472935#msg5472935

Part VII: Rural Washington County:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5474041#msg5474041

Wheeler County- Oregon Update # 27

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5616410#msg5616410

Yamhill County: Oregon Update # 6

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5415007#msg5415007

[Spamage]

I've been following this as you've been posting NOVA, great work! Your analysis of Washington County (where I'm from) is spot on. Truly interesting how much certain areas are changing.

[NOVA Green]

I've been following this as you've been posting NOVA, great work! Your analysis of Washington County (where I'm from) is spot on. Truly interesting how much certain areas are changing.

Thanks Spamage!!!!

I appreciate the feedback from a local resident of Washington County, and a fellow Oregonian....

Spent a bit of time myself out there over the decades, and remember back when Beaverton was a small town of some 15,000-20,000 and Washington Square Mall was mostly surrounded by fields!

It's actually insane thinking about it, that the County is on the verge on having its own House District potentially in the very near future.

Politically: Washington County is to Oregon what Fairfax County is to Virginia, albeit on a much smaller scale, and a decade or so later...

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #5: Coos County--- Part III

Before we roll into the next City, let's take a look at how the votes are distributed by place within Coos County. I have lumped all incorporated areas into one area of the chart, and we'll get into a more detailed breakdown a few posts later, about where exactly these votes are located.



Ok--- time to move onto the second largest City in the County....

2.) North Bend--- Pop 9.6k--- MHI $ 42.4k/Yr--- 15.1% County Vote 2016

Basically a sister City of Coos Bay, it is literally right across the Street, and many driving down Coastal Highway 101 don't even realize that they are technically in a different City.

Although both Cities share many similarities there are also a few subtle differences, demographically and occupationally.



Age: Pretty similar to Coos Bay, with slightly fewer 18-22 year olds (10%), 19% 65+, 25% 60+.

Race/Ethnicity: 84.2% White, 4.3% Latino, 7.2% Mixed, 2.6% Other (Slightly Whiter and less Latino than Coos Bay and with a higher number of Mixed Ethnicities,

Employment Status/Food Stamps: 52.7% 25-64 employed, 18.7% Food Stamps. Higher employment levels and less poverty than Coos Bay.

Relative Occupations: 3.1% Law Enforcement, 2.6% Legal, 3.4% Social Svcs, 4.0% Health Care Support, 19.5% Administrative, 15.4% Sales, 1.4% Fire-Fighting

Industries: 10.8% Gvt, 17.5% Retail, 4.5% Transportation,

More White Collar than Coos Bay, with a significant proportion of Cops & Firefighters

Educational Attainment: 33.3% > HS Degree (12.2% with Associates) and 8.8% with No HS Degree

Also, the site of one of the few new sawmills built in Oregon in recent years built by the Southport Lumber Company, which is heavily automated and employs few actual workers.... The plant received all sorts of taxpayer subsidies because it was suppose to have (300) direct hires, and yet the plant only operates on less than a third of that.

http://www.southportforest.com/history.html

https://www.ilwu.org/corporate-subsidies-for-anti-union-employers-are-taxpayers-are-being-hosed-in-coos-bay/

Ok--- so North Bend is a bit more Middle-Class and White Collar than Coos Bay, and higher rate of education (Mainly tied to associates degrees required for certain professional occupations--- health care, law enforcement, finance and real estate, etc...

How did North Bend vote in recent decades?

US President:

1988: (57.0 D- 40.9 R)                            +16.1 D
1992: (43.3 D- 31.9 R- 24.8 Perot)           +11.4 D    (Perot gained more from Dem '88 Voters)
2000: (43.6 D- 50.1 R- 4.4 Nader)            +  6.5 R
2004: (45.6 D- 52.0 R)                            +  6.4 R
2008: (50.0 D- 46.5 R)                            +  3.5 D    (+9.9% Dem Swing)
2012: (48.7 D- 47.9 R)                            +  0.8 D    (+2.7% Rep Swing)
2016: (37.4 D- 51.9 R)                            +14.5 R     (+15.3% Rep Swing)

So overall, North Bend leans a couple points more Republican than Coos Bay, and a couple points less Democratic, with the exception of 1988, when the two voted about the same.

You see a similar phenomenon with a large number of Dukakis '88 voters defecting to Perot in '92, many of whom stuck with the Republican Party in subsequent elections. Bush gained a few points between '00 and '04 (9/11 and Iraq War effect?). Significant swing towards Obama in '08 (W. '00/04 voters), only minor defection in '12 (Which I found a bit surprising considering what I've seen in similar communities), and huge collapse of Democratic support and major gain of Republican support in '16.

Trump only came 0.1% short of George W.'s 2004 peak here...

So here it doesn't appear that Middle-Class voters with vocational degrees swung any less for Trump than in more working-class neighboring Coos Bay.



US Senate:

1992: (43.5 D- 56.5 R)                     + 13.0 R
2002: (39.8 D- 54.7 R)                     + 14.9 R
2004: (58.9 D- 36.3 R)                     + 22.6 D
2008: (44.7 D- 47.5 R)                     +  2.8 R      (+12.1 D Swing from '02)
2010: (53.1 D- 42.4 R)                     + 10.7 D     (+11.9 R Swing from '04)
2014: (53.7 D- 38.8 R)                     + 14.9 D     (+17.7 D Swing from '08)
2016: (47.8 D- 41.5 R)                     +  6.3 D      (+ 4.4 R Swing from '10)

So, Democratic incumbent Senators tend to outperform other Democrats in North Bend....

What is notable is Merkley's (D-OR) strong performance in '08, and especially in '14 here. It helps having some working-class downstate roots, but still you can see the erosion of Republican support between '02/'08/'14 here, so the right kind of Democrat can actually perform quite well, even in a City that Trump won by 15% Points.

As I have commented elsewhere, Wyden is increasingly facing Democratic defection to the Left, especially in working-class downstate communities in Oregon, which you can observe by looking at the 3rd Party 2016 numbers.



OR GOV:

1994: (49.6 D- 44.0 R)                 + 5.6 D
2002: (47.7 D- 46.7 R)                 + 1.0 D
2006: (47.6 D- 44.2 R)                 + 3.4 D       (+2.4% D Swing)
2010: (46.1 D- 50.2 R)                 + 4.1 R       (+7.5% R Swing)
2014: (46.5 D- 47.4 R)                 + 0.9 R       (+3.2% D Swing)
2016: (41.3 D- 50.9 R)                 + 9.6 R       (+8.7% R Swing)

It does appear that the Trump "surge" here may have helped the Republican Gubernatorial Candidate, since generally Gubernatorial elections have been pretty static.

However if one looks at the trendlines in the graph below, it does appear that there has been a small gradual erosion of Democratic support, even if 2016 was an outlier. We'll know more in the 2018 Gubernatorial election.



What does this all mean?

Coos Bay/North Bend account for 37% of the County Vote. There is clearly both a solid base of Democratic Party support in both cities, as well as a number of ticket-splitting swing WWC voters.

If Democrats are winning these towns by 10-15 Points, they will have won any Statewide election, as well as Coos County by 3-5 %.

In order for Republicans to win US Senate or Gubernatorial elections, they will need to win places like this by significantly larger margins than they are currently, unless the Party is somehow able to make a comeback in Middle and Upper-Income communities in suburban Portland, Salem, Corvallis, and Eugene.

At a Presidential level, Coos County has clearly shifted into Republican territory, although it remains to be seen if Trump's '16 performance was a temporary variance from the norm in a place where economic populism and protectionism has long been popular from the days when these two cities were Union strongholds.

Now lest anyone think that Coos Bay/North Bend has become a stronghold of support for Trump, feelings are much more mixed, and hundreds of locals turned out in this community to demonstrate after his inauguration.

http://registerguard.com/rg/news/local/35212670-75/diesel-smoke-incident-at-coos-bay-womens-march-leads-to-citation.html.csp

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #5: Coos County- Part IV

Ok--- since I've already gone through the time intensive exercise of crunching precinct numbers for Coos County from 1988 to 2016, let's see if we can take a look at some of the other cities in the County.

Also, anyone liking the new Graph style I've been mixing in? I personally like the black background on the bar charts, since it contrasts better with the white background of the Forum....

Let's start with a map of the County that shows the cities to get a visual frame of reference...



3,) Coquille--- Pop 3.9k--- MHI $ 39.3k--- 5.8% of County Vote 2016

This small inland town of 4k was a significant timber mill town until 1990 when Georgia-Pacific (GP) shuttered its Mill throwing 320 people out of work blaming a "shortage of timber", although the US government blamed imports of Canadian wood products, while meanwhile GP was shifting its operations to the Southern United States.

In 1990, G-P closed a plywood and stud mill in Coquille, Oregon, putting about 320 people out of
work. 81 G-P blamed a shortage of timber, but the U.S. government blamed imports of Canadian wood products, and offered to pay for the workers' job retraining and relocation. Automation is key as well: in 1994, G-P reopened a mill in Coos Bay. G-P's Coquille plywood and stud mill had employed 320; the new $18 million, computer-packed sawmill, which can turn a log into lumber in 30 minutes, will employ only 85 people.    (Page 11 from the following article)

http://www.endgame.org/globaltimbertitans.pdf

The town lost almost 10% of its population virtually overnight, and population growth has remained stagnant ever since.



Even prior to the advent of large scale commercial logging in Oregon, Coquille was a prosperous inland merchant town that thrived transporting dairy from a major dairy producing region of Oregon on River Boats (The equivalent of the highway back in the early 1900s) down to Coos Bay and beyond.

The old GP site was just recently auctioned off, and the City has been trying to reinvent itself and discover new means of maintaining and sustaining economic opportunities, focusing on items such as healthcare for an aging population, tourism, and small-scale craft production.

http://www.cityofcoquille.org/document/docs/Coquille_EOA_FINAL__10_19_12_with_ack.pdf

A new Hospital was built in town in 2012, and a few tenants have moved into the old GP site, although obviously not providing anywhere close to the former number of employees at the old Mill.

http://theworldlink.com/news/local/two-projects-find-home-at-coquille-mill-site/article_0498625a-12c6-5f1a-aaa0-d3a930107e23.html

Coquille Demographics:

Age: 22% 65+ Years; 31% 55+ Years. Only 6.5% of the population is 18-24
Race/Ethnicity: 88.2% White, 5.4% Latino, 4.1% Mixed, 1.7% Other
Employment/Food Stamps: 47.6% 25-64 employed; 16.2% Food Stamps
Relative Occupations: 4.1% Law Enforcement; 19.0% Personal Care; 3.3% Science; 4.8% Farming; 8.3% Construction; 5.0% Repair; 2.4% Health Technicians
Industries: 7.8% Agriculture; 4.9% Entertainment; 1.9% Utilities; 10.0% Other Svs; 8.8% Gvt
Educational Attainment: 23.9% > HS Degree (4.5% Associates; 16.3% No HS Diploma

So--- let's roll the election numbers....

County Share of Vote has dropped 1.0% since '92 for the reasons mentioned above.

US President:

1988: (53.7 D- 43.5 R)                           +10.2 D
1992: (38.7 D- 35.4 R- 25.8 Perot)          + 3.3 D
2000: (37.5 D- 55.6 R-  4.1 Nader)         + 18.1 R         (+21.4% R Swing)
2004: (38.1 D- 60.2 R)                          + 22.1 R         (+  4.0% R Swing)
2008: (42.0 D- 54.8 R)                          + 12.8 R         (+  9.3% D Swing)
2012: (39.5 D- 56.3 R)                          + 16.8 R         (+  4.0% R Swing)
2016: (27.0 D- 63.0 R)                          + 36.0 R         (+ 19.2% R Swing)



Ok--- Looking at these numbers should tell you just about everything regarding the collapse of Democratic Presidential support in Coos County over the past few decades. Even in the Democrats worst years ('00/'04) they could capture somewhere in the high 30% of the Vote. The +6.7% gain for Republican candidate with Trump over Romney is pretty mind-blowing as well. Almost 1/10 voters were Obama '08/Trump '16 voters.

US Senate

1992: (39.3 D- 60.7 R)                      + 21.4% R
2002: (32.3 D- 61.2 R)                      + 28.9% R
2004: (51.6 D- 43.3 R)                      +   8.3% D
2008: (37.4 D- 54.2 R)                      + 16.8% R       (+22.1% D Swing from '02)
2010: (46.3 D- 48.7 R)                      +  2.4% R        (+10.7% R Swing from '04)
2014: (44.0 D- 48.4 R)                      +  4.4% R        (+12.4% D Swing from '08)
2016: (38.8 D- 50.0 R)                      + 11.2% R       (+  8.8% R Swing from '10)



So although Coquille tends to vote Republican at the US Senate level, (with the exception of the Wyden '04 landslide when he won 35/36 Oregon Counties), Republican numbers have been  held under 50% in '10/'14/'16.

There was a slight 'Pub bump in '16, but most of the drop-off in Dem support were voters going to the Left.

OR GOV:

1994: (44.2 D- 49.5 R)          +  5.7% R
2002: (39.7 D- 54.4 R)          + 14.7% R
2006: (40.0 D- 51.5 R)          + 11.5% R      (+ 3.2% D Swing)
2010: (36.1 D- 59.3 R)          + 23.2% R     (+ 11.7% R Swing)
2014: (37.3 D- 57.0 R)          + 19.7% R     (+  3.5% D Swing)
2016: (33.4 D- 59.0 R)          + 25.6% R     (+  5.9% R Swing)

So here if you look at it, the trendlines are even clearer in terms of the erosion of Democratic support and growth in Republican support in Coquille.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #5: Coos County- Part V

4.) Bandon- Pop 3.1k- MHI $ 35.8k- 5.6% of County Vote 2016

While most of the County has had relatively stagnant, or even declining population over the past few decades, the population of this town has increased 40% since 1990. Likewise, it's share of the County Vote has increased from 4.4% in '88/'92 to 5.5/5.6% in '12/'16.

Unlike most of Coos County, Bandon is definitely on the tourist radar because of the World Class Golf Resorts, the Port of Bandon Boardwalk filled with all sorts of small shops, the Marina, and very year around artsy type activities, as well as close proximity to some pretty cool Sand Dunes.



Bandon Demographics:

Age: 31% 65+ (Including >10% 80+ !!!), 44% 60+, 57% 55+.

Race/Ethnicity: 91.3% White, 2.1% Latino, 2.0% Other, 1.7% Mixed

Employment/Food Stamps: 44.5% 25-64 Employed, 18.1% Food Stamps

Relative Occupations: 6.3% Healthcare Support; 8.6% Transportation; 21.6% Sales; 6.5% Business; 4.1% Repair, 4.7% Facilities

Industries: 11.0% Transportation; 14.2% Hospitality; 22.9% Retail; 11.0% Professional

Educational Attainment: 31.9% > HS Degree (6.7% Associates); 8.9% No HS Degree

So, basically for all intents Bandon is predominately a retiree town, with the workforce either providing various services to the retiree population, or a large number of small business owners that are "semi-retired" in the hundred or so shops on the Boardwalk.

Although the MHI looks low, that is simply because there are so many older retirees without tons of income, so you have 43% of households making < $30k/Yr.

Let's take a look at how Bandon's been voting....

US President:

1988: (55.0 D- 42.6 R)                          + 12.4 D
1992: (44.7 D- 29.6 R- 25.7 Perot)         + 15.1 D
2000: (47.6 D- 44.9 R- 5.6 Nader)          +  2.7 D
2004: (52.7 D- 45.2 R)                          +  7.5 D       (+4.8% D Swing)
2008: (53.7 D- 43.4 R)                          + 10.3 D      (+2.8% D Swing)
2012: (52.3 D- 43.4 R)                          +   8.9 D      (+1.4% R Swing)
2016: (46.4 D- 44.7 R)                          +   1.7 D      (+7.2% R Swing)




So Bandon has moved from being more Republican than the County at the Presidential Level, to being more Democratic than the County. Generally there haven't been too many dramatic swings or shift of votes, with the Republicans running at the 43-45% range since 2000, and the Democrats at around 52-53%, just about every election, with some 3rd Party defections in '00 and '16.

US Senate:

1992: (50.1 D- 49.9 R)        +  0.2 D
2002: (43.4 D- 53.1 R)        +  9.7 R
2004: (62.2 D- 32.9 R)        + 29.3 D
2008: (49.5 D- 44.5 R)        +  5.0 D             (+14.7% D Swing from '02)
2010: (54.0 D- 39.9 R)        + 14.1 D            (+15.2% R Swing from '04)
2014: (55.9 D- 37.2 R)        + 18.7 D            (+13.7% D Swing from '08)
2016: (52.2 D- 37.8 R)        + 14.4 D            (+ 0.3% D Swing from '10)




So generally Bandon votes to the Left of Oregon for Senator, even voting against Packwood in '92, going for Merkley by 5% in a very close statewide election in '08, and even swinging narrowly towards Wyden in '16. This is even more remarkable considering in the past few cycles most the 3rd Party Senate votes have been for candidates to the Left of the Democrats.

OR: GOV

1994: (47.1 D- 47.0 R)            +   0.1 D
2002: (50.2 D- 45.2 D)            +   5.0 D
2006: (54.2 D- 39.6 R)            +  14.6 D     (+  9.6% D Swing)
2010: (49.3 D- 47.0 R)            +    2.3 D     (+ 12.3% R Swing)
2014: (54.1 D- 40.4 R)            +  13.7 D     (+ 11.4% D Swing)
2016: (48.2 D- 46.0 R)            +    2.2 D    (+  11.5% R Swing)



So what's going on with all of the crazy swings for Governor over the past ten years? What makes it even more unusual is that because of the age of the Population here, one would imagine that dramatic partisan swings would be less likely than among other populations....


4.) Myrtle Point-  Pop 2.5k--- MHI $ 33.2k- 3.7% of County Vote 2016



Another former Timber town that has lost about 10% of its population since 1990, and an even higher percentage if we go back to 1980, although at least the population loss has stabilized over the past few years.

There aren't really any large employers here, so residents commute to work in nearby communities, as well as some that still work in the woods of the nearby forests.

Demographics:

Age: 20% 65+ Yrs, 28% 60+ Yrs , 25% <18 Yrs
Race/Ethnicity: 83.6% White, 8.8 Latino, 3.6% Other, 3.3% Mixed
Employment/Food Stamps: 40.5% 25-64 Yrs employed; 25.6% Food Stamps
Relative Occupations: 3.5% Law Enforcement; 7.5% Facilities; 4.2% Material Moving; 8.7% Production; 4.1% Personal Care; 18.1% Administrative
Industries: 3,9% Entertainment; 5.9% Agriculture; 19.7% Healthcare; 6.4% Gvt;

US President:

1988: (53.1 D- 43.8 R)                              +  9.3% D
1992: (37.7 D- 33.8 R- 28.6 Perot)             +  3.9% D
2000: (33.1 D- 61.4 R- 3.4 Nader)             + 28.3% R
2004: (34.2 D- 64.6 R)                              +30.4% R        (+ 2.1% R Swing)
2008: (37.0 D- 59.2 R)                             + 22.2% R        (+ 8.2% D Swing)
2012: (36.3 D- 60.2 R)                             + 23.9% R        (+ 1.7% R Swing)
2016: (22.4 D- 70.5 R)                             + 48.1% R        (+24.2% R Swing)

So, one of the quickest collapses of Democratic support I've seen in Oregon. Between '88 and '00 there was a +37.6% R Swing.... then between '00 and '16 another +19.8% R Swing--- Wow.



US Senate:

So, also one of the most Republican precincts in US Senate races, although interestingly enough Republican numbers haven't really gone above 55% for some time.



OR GOV:

Again, one of the most Republican places in the County for OR-GOV, although things didn't really start to collapse until the 2010 election...




Next stop rural/Uninc parts of Coos County....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update # 5: Coos County Part VI- RURAL Coos County



Let's look at the 48% of voters in "Rural" Coos County in greater detail and compare that with the 52% of the voters in the "towns" of Coos County.

Presidential Election Results:

Rural Coos----



Towns in Coos County---



So, right here we start to see where Democratic Presidential support first started to collapse in Coos County.... Rural areas voted essentially the same as the cities/towns in '88....

We see the rural vote spike more significantly towards Perot in '92 in rural areas vs towns.

Hit 2000, and we start to see why Coos is becoming a Lean Rep County... getting killed by 20% in the "rural" areas and losing the cities/towns by 7%.

'04 offers goods news for 'Pubs at the Pres level in both the cities and rural areas, although interestingly enough Gore improved much more in rural Coos County than the towns/cities.

We get to '08 and Obama manages to keep it to a <10% margin in rural areas, and hold the cities by 3.5%.

Hit '12, and Dem numbers barely shift in the cities, but there is a 2% voter shift in rural areas towards the 'Pubs (+4% swing).

By '16 these numbers are even more lopsided and insane....HRC drops to only 29% of the vote in rural areas, and Trump pops out 62% of the vote....

Within the cities/towns, you see a similar phenomenon but to a slightly lesser extent....

Rural Coos obviously appears to account for a much greater variation over the decades, and accounts for a large amount of the 'Pub swing in Coos over the years.

US SENATE:

Rural Coos:



Towns Coos:




So 'Pubs have barely been able to crack 50% in rural areas, and managed to capture an amazing 50.2% in '16. Dems actually were running 44-46% in '10/'14.


OR GOV:


RURAL COOS:



COOS TOWNS:



GOV numbers are a bit more normal for downstate, with relatively even voting patterns. '10 and '16 appear to stand out as deviations from the norm, and I suspect that the Trump surge in Coos, is partially responsible for the '16 numbers in rural Coos.

I'll pull a few selective rural precincts on my next post on the thread, to examine in greater detail the 48% of County Voters in "rural Coos" not included in my previous analysis.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #5: Coos County Part VII- Rural Precincts

Here is a precinct map for Coos County:



Historical voting data for rural Coos is trickier, since they lost 70% of voting precincts after '00.

6. Barview- Census Designated Place (Precinct # --- 8.6% County Vote 2016

Precinct includes the uninc community of Barview, just a few miles from Coos Bay, and the small communities of Englewood and Libby South of Coos Bay.



Since most of the population of the precinct is located in Barview, it gives us a bit more demographic data to work with, than is the case for many rural precincts in Oregon.

The population of Barview is about 1.7k and tends to skew towards and older and/or retirees. About 22% of the population is 65+ and 40% 55+. It's about 93% White, and is classified as one of the poorest places in Coos County, with 55% of households making < $25k/Yr in income, and 30% on food stamps. The unemployment rate appears to be about 18% from the figures available, and only 32% of the working age population is currently employed. Those that are employed are heavily skewed towards lower paying occupations and/or part-time seasonal jobs such as food service and construction. Educational attainment only 26.2% with > HS Diploma and 12.0% with no HS Degree.

What are the voting patterns of this area?

US President:

2004: (49.0 D- 47.9 R)         +  1.1 D
2008: (51.9 D- 43.4 R)         +  8.7 D      (+ 7.6% D Swing)
2012: (48.3 D- 46.6 R)         +  1.7 D      (+ 7.0% R Swing)
2016: (31.9 D- 58.0 R)         + 16.1 R     (+17.8% R Swing)

Here you have a huge problem for Democrats... Older, poorer and reliably Democratic voters that swung hard towards Trump. Over 10% of the voters who backed Kerry/Obama/Obama that switched and voted Republican for a first time in over a decade. This is a much bigger problem than shifts on the margins of traditional swing voters in Mill Towns and rural areas of Oregon.

This is 10% of the County vote in a fairly reliably Democratic precinct.



US Senate:

At the US Senate level, we don't see the same wholesale collapse of Democratic support, although Wyden achieved the lowest level of support for a Democratic candidate since '02, and the 'Pubs achieved their 2nd highest result since '08. As mentioned elsewhere, much of the drop in support for Wyden in Oregon in '16 came from defections to Left-Wing parties on the ballot, and considering Merkley's respectable numbers in '08 and '14, I'm not anticipating an issue here in 2020.




OR GOV:



So here is where we do see a potential problem for Democrats.... Traditionally Barview had tended to be relatively consistent in its Party distribution of Oregon Gubernatorial elections. As is the case in many parts of downstate Oregon, Republicans tend to over-perform compared to other offices and Democrats tend to under-perform. That's par for the course in Oregon politics since the 1990s. However, what we see here is a massive swing towards the Republican Gubernatorial candidate, and Democrats that can usually expect somewhere around the 45% range of the vote saw their stocks plunge by 5%. This is not typical, and it appears that here at least there was a "Trump effect" at the Gubernatorial level.

7. Rural Bandon- Precinct #17--- (6.7% of County Vote 2016)



It is perhaps most accurate to consider this precinct predominantly an agricultural part of the County, from both an historical, social, economic, and political perspective. Almost 10% of the workforce, using the closest match to a US Census tract available, is directly employed in the agricultural sector, as well as an additional 7% in the transportation sector, closely linked with farming here, and 13% of occupations in Management, many of whom are basically small farm business owners.

This area was once famous for its dairy farms, and every Oregonian, as well as many others elsewhere in the country, are likely familiar with the Bandon cheese brand. Although Tillamook Cheese bought out Bandon Cheese in '02, a significant amount of the raw dairy products are still sourced from Coos County.

Sure, some of the agricultural sector workers are in sectors such as logging or fishing, but this isn't a major current timber producing region of the County, and not that many fishermen live along the agricultural producing river valley's of the precinct.

As I mentioned in my previous post on Curry County, Cranberry production is also a major agricultural commodity produced in this precinct, in the Cranberry bogs stretching along the Coastal areas of the precinct.

Both Dairy and Cranberry producers have recently hit hard times, because of a mixture of global overproduction, as well as increased foreign competition as producers have tried to export their way out of a dramatic drop in commodity prices.

Here are a few articles relevant to the Dairy Industry in Coos County, and some of the creative ways that Oregon farmers have been trying to adapt.


https://www.qualityinfo.org/-/oregon-dairy-production-grows-as-dairy-prices-stabilize

http://theworldlink.com/news/south-coast-strong/south-coast-climate-terrain-uniquely-suited-to-organic-dairy-farming/article_034e1740-fe73-5743-98b4-f516b7cdf54e.html

http://theworldlink.com/lifestyles/stories-no-dairy-farms/article_47de2a8c-3788-11e4-bdf9-001a4bcf887a.html

http://theworldlink.com/last-days-of-a-landmark-elements-wear-away-at-the/article_db9afb35-9cdb-5504-901e-1514aa8bf9b9.html

So demographics of the closest matching Census Tract---

Age: 30% 65+, 54% 55+ (Very Old population), 92% White, MHI $38.5k/Yr, 27.6% >HS Diploma, 11.0% No HS Diploma

Election Results ('02-16)

2004: (40.1 D- 58.6 R)          + 18.5 R
2008: (43.2 D- 54.1 R)          + 10.9 R     (+ 7.6% D Swing)
2012: (40.3 D- 56.1 R)          + 15.8 R     (+ 4.9% R Swing)
2016: (33.1 D- 57.6 R)          + 24.5 R     (+ 8.7 % R Swing)

So interestingly enough, most of the reasons for the swing between '12 and '16, was a result of drop-off support from the Democratic nominee towards 3rd Party candidates, and not a major gain for Trump. Now--- I am still interested in examining the subject of dairy farmers and the '16 Presidential election further, considering the similarities in agricultural production in many parts of Oregon with that of Wisconsin & ME-02 in terms of timber, dairy, and cranberries, but that will need to wait.



US Senate:

So, with the US Senate results, we see what is generally to be expected from an agricultural precinct that tends to lean Republican by about 3-4% points more than the County average.

Still it is noteworthy that not only can Republican candidates barely hit the 50% mark in recent elections, but that Democrats can typically hit around the 43% range. It doesn't appear that Trump's relatively decent performance in '16 was transferable in the US-SEN contest here.



OR GOV:

Again OR-GOV results appear to be pretty static from '02-'16 with both parties maintaining normal voting patterns, and maybe a 1-1.5% gain for the 'Pub nominee (Trump effect?)



8.) Rural Myrtle Point--- (4.6% of County Voters 2016)



Ok--- so now we are hitting a pretty rugged and remote part of Coos County, that encompasses a huge amount of square miles that are a mixture of privately and publicly owned Timber land.

In the old days, as in many similar parts of Oregon, the rule of thumb was if there was a "No Tresspassing" sign, it was best to observe that request from the property owner. You have a large population of Vietnam Vets, Marijuana Farmers (Before it became legal in Oregon), and frequently generally people that want to be left alone, and will literally shoot to kill if they feel threatened on their property, where it is not uncommon to have people with 100 acre lots, that part out a certain amount of Timber every so many years to cover their mortgage/property taxes and the like.

It's the kind of place where as soon as you get a car and a driver's license, you quickly come to learn every back-county logging road in the area, where you do the ritualistic keg party off the back of a pick-up truck as a coming of age ceremony. I might have a complete set of Pittmon maps of Oregon by County that shows every single logging road in 1x1 mile grids, but I won't know it like the back of my hand like the locals out here.

Simply put, this is logging country.

Closest match to Census Tract Demographics: Age- 23% 65+ 41% 55+. 89.5% White, 43% of working age pop employed, 22% Food Stamps, 13.7% Agricultural Industry (Forest Products), 20.9% > HS Diploma, 17.0% No HS Diploma

Ok--- let's look at election results.

US President:

So this has been a pretty heavily Republican part of the County for quite a few decades now. Obama only got 29% in '08 vs 66% for McCain..... Still HRC only capturing 19% of the voters and Trump wining almost 75% of the votes, makes this precinct look like something more out of the Deep South. Hell, Clinton even did better in most rural White parts of Appalachia than out here!



US Senate

So this is a bit interesting.... Dems still generally get slaughtered at the US-SEN level in this precinct in recent decades, but look at the '14 numbers. The Republican candidate only got 52.2% and Merkley captured 40.5%, the best performance for a Democrat here, other than when Ron Wyden won 35/36 counties in Oregon in a landslide, and even then he only got 40.6% here.



http://theworldlink.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/merkley-tackles-myriad-topics-during-coos-county-town-hall/article_797906c2-e65c-5832-8929-0c701ed10427.html

OR GOV:



Edited: Forgot to embed Rural Myrtle Point US SEN Map

[Keep cool-idge]

Dang Douglas and coos county are look like there going the way of West Virginia and northern Maine

[NOVA Green]

Dang Douglas and coos county are look like there going the way of West Virginia and northern Maine

Douglas County has long become much more Republican at every level than ME-02 (Northern Maine), but hasn't quite move into West Virginia territory (Yet)....  It's hard to believe it's the same county where Dukakis outperformed his national average in '88.

Coos County is a slightly different beast, and generally Pubs have only been able to keep it to about a 10-12% point margin in recent elections, and I strongly suspect that '16 was an aberration at the Presidential level, because of the unpopularity of HRC, and support for Trump's economic message among many protectionist voters in the County.

Also, Coos County has perhaps a more defined core of voters in North Bend / Coos Bay, and several other surrounding Unincorporated areas that tend to have a Democratic lean, that will typically offset to some degree the extremely heavily Republican margins in rural areas that moved Republican much earlier than the Cities....

Douglas County, although I haven't done the full v 2.0 treatment yet, has both a smaller "urban" component, and additionally the City (Roseburg) started to swing Republican much earlier than Coos Bay/North Bend.

Much of this has to do with the different economic profile of the two counties. Although they share a closely interconnected trading structure, Coos Bay has historically seen itself as more of Port City, rather than a Mill Town. The role of Industry and Government acceptance of Trade Unions in Coos Bay goes back to the New Deal and World War II. Although there have been demographic change in Coos County, the legacy and history of the Union Movement and Farmer Co-Ops still exists in both the cities and rural areas, that has tampered support for the Republican Party, in a way not seen in Douglas County. Unlike many other Mill Towns in Oregon, Roseburg never really had an extensive Union presence in the Mills, let alone rural areas.

The obvious similarity between both counties in the extend to which unemployment has been higher than almost anywhere else in Oregon every time we hit a recession.... The unemployment rate of Douglas County hit 15 % in 1/92 and 18.1% in 2/09.

In Douglas County, much of the locals ire was blamed on the environmentalist movement in '92, that led to an overnight shift in voting patterns within the County. Interestingly enough, the Great Recession was not blamed on the failed economic policies of Republican President George W. Bush, to the same extent.

One item that is often ignored is what happens when there is a catastrophic economic collapse within an industry/region. Individuals that are in the their '20s/'30s, or aren't necessarily tied down to mortgage payments, kids in school, etc, frequently drift down the road to other communities, where they have an established social network and jobs are more plentiful, with greater opportunities.

What this means practically, is that Coos and Douglas County are increasingly aging, the core "employment aged worker group" is shrinking. I know personally five individuals that left Coos County in their '20s/ early '30s some 15 years ago to move to the Central Willamette Valley.

In the case of Coos Bay and Roseburg, generally they are more likely to move to places like Eugene/Springfield or Grants Pass/ Medford, and sometimes further afield to Salem/Albany/Corvallis.

Some of the loss of a younger population in these areas, has actually contributed to Democratic vote gains in the Cities of the Rogue River and Willamette Valley....

The similarity between many of these communities in Coos/Douglas and parts of West Virginia and Maine cannot be understated. I would actually add many parts of upstate Wisconsin to the mix as well, where perhaps there is closer similarity to parts of Southern Oregon than WV or ME-02.

Still, there are few counties in Oregon, outside of Eastern Oregon, that I would consider "going the way of WV", but certainly Douglas County would be the one in Western Oregon that would most likely earn that title... (Although Josephine has traditionally been more Republican, it's offset by some surprisingly strong Democratic support in many rural areas, as well as greater demographic changes taking places in the largest population center Grants Pass, that potentially makes it a more elastic voter base. Especially now that there is no such thing as 24x7 law enforcement in Josephine County, and even the City of Grants Pass has almost no cop coverage at night, I wonder how long the anti-tax fervor among California retirees will last in the only place in Oregon that voted Goldwater in '64?


 

[NOVA Green]

Dang Douglas and coos county are look like there going the way of West Virginia and northern Maine

Dang Douglas and coos county are look like there going the way of West Virginia and northern Maine

Douglas County has long become much more Republican at every level than ME-02 (Northern Maine), but hasn't quite move into West Virginia territory (Yet)....  It's hard to believe it's the same county where Dukakis outperformed his national average in '88.

Coos County is a slightly different beast, and generally Pubs have only been able to keep it to about a 10-12% point margin in recent elections, and I strongly suspect that '16 was an aberration at the Presidential level, because of the unpopularity of HRC, and support for Trump's economic message among many protectionist voters in the County.

Also, Coos County has perhaps a more defined core of voters in North Bend / Coos Bay, and several other surrounding Unincorporated areas that tend to have a Democratic lean, that will typically offset to some degree the extremely heavily Republican margins in rural areas that moved Republican much earlier than the Cities....

Douglas County, although I haven't done the full v 2.0 treatment yet, has both a smaller "urban" component, and additionally the City (Roseburg) started to swing Republican much earlier than Coos Bay/North Bend.

Much of this has to do with the different economic profile of the two counties. Although they share a closely interconnected trading structure, Coos Bay has historically seen itself as more of Port City, rather than a Mill Town. The role of Industry and Government acceptance of Trade Unions in Coos Bay goes back to the New Deal and World War II. Although there have been demographic change in Coos County, the legacy and history of the Union Movement and Farmer Co-Ops still exists in both the cities and rural areas, that has tampered support for the Republican Party, in a way not seen in Douglas County. Unlike many other Mill Towns in Oregon, Roseburg never really had an extensive Union presence in the Mills, let alone rural areas.

The obvious similarity between both counties in the extend to which unemployment has been higher than almost anywhere else in Oregon every time we hit a recession.... The unemployment rate of Douglas County hit 15 % in 1/92 and 18.1% in 2/09.

In Douglas County, much of the locals ire was blamed on the environmentalist movement in '92, that led to an overnight shift in voting patterns within the County. Interestingly enough, the Great Recession was not blamed on the failed economic policies of Republican President George W. Bush, to the same extent.

One item that is often ignored is what happens when there is a catastrophic economic collapse within an industry/region. Individuals that are in the their '20s/'30s, or aren't necessarily tied down to mortgage payments, kids in school, etc, frequently drift down the road to other communities, where they have an established social network and jobs are more plentiful, with greater opportunities.

What this means practically, is that Coos and Douglas County are increasingly aging, the core "employment aged worker group" is shrinking. I know personally five individuals that left Coos County in their '20s/ early '30s some 15 years ago to move to the Central Willamette Valley.

In the case of Coos Bay and Roseburg, generally they are more likely to move to places like Eugene/Springfield or Grants Pass/ Medford, and sometimes further afield to Salem/Albany/Corvallis.

Some of the loss of a younger population in these areas, has actually contributed to Democratic vote gains in the Cities of the Rogue River and Willamette Valley....

The similarity between many of these communities in Coos/Douglas and parts of West Virginia and Maine cannot be understated. I would actually add many parts of upstate Wisconsin to the mix as well, where perhaps there is closer similarity to parts of Southern Oregon than WV or ME-02.

Still, there are few counties in Oregon, outside of Eastern Oregon, that I would consider "going the way of WV", but certainly Douglas County would be the one in Western Oregon that would most likely earn that title... (Although Josephine has traditionally been more Republican, it's offset by some surprisingly strong Democratic support in many rural areas, as well as greater demographic changes taking places in the largest population center Grants Pass, that potentially makes it a more elastic voter base. Especially now that there is no such thing as 24x7 law enforcement in Josephine County, and even the City of Grants Pass has almost no cop coverage at night, I wonder how long the anti-tax fervor among California retirees will last in the only place in Oregon that voted Goldwater in '64?

[Keep cool-idge]

Dang Douglas and coos county are look like there going the way of West Virginia and northern Maine

Douglas County has long become much more Republican at every level than ME-02 (Northern Maine), but hasn't quite move into West Virginia territory (Yet)....  It's hard to believe it's the same county where Dukakis outperformed his national average in '88.

Coos County is a slightly different beast, and generally Pubs have only been able to keep it to about a 10-12% point margin in recent elections, and I strongly suspect that '16 was an aberration at the Presidential level, because of the unpopularity of HRC, and support for Trump's economic message among many protectionist voters in the County.

Also, Coos County has perhaps a more defined core of voters in North Bend / Coos Bay, and several other surrounding Unincorporated areas that tend to have a Democratic lean, that will typically offset to some degree the extremely heavily Republican margins in rural areas that moved Republican much earlier than the Cities....

Douglas County, although I haven't done the full v 2.0 treatment yet, has both a smaller "urban" component, and additionally the City (Roseburg) started to swing Republican much earlier than Coos Bay/North Bend.

Much of this has to do with the different economic profile of the two counties. Although they share a closely interconnected trading structure, Coos Bay has historically seen itself as more of Port City, rather than a Mill Town. The role of Industry and Government acceptance of Trade Unions in Coos Bay goes back to the New Deal and World War II. Although there have been demographic change in Coos County, the legacy and history of the Union Movement and Farmer Co-Ops still exists in both the cities and rural areas, that has tampered support for the Republican Party, in a way not seen in Douglas County. Unlike many other Mill Towns in Oregon, Roseburg never really had an extensive Union presence in the Mills, let alone rural areas.

The obvious similarity between both counties in the extend to which unemployment has been higher than almost anywhere else in Oregon every time we hit a recession.... The unemployment rate of Douglas County hit 15 % in 1/92 and 18.1% in 2/09.

In Douglas County, much of the locals ire was blamed on the environmentalist movement in '92, that led to an overnight shift in voting patterns within the County. Interestingly enough, the Great Recession was not blamed on the failed economic policies of Republican President George W. Bush, to the same extent.

One item that is often ignored is what happens when there is a catastrophic economic collapse within an industry/region. Individuals that are in the their '20s/'30s, or aren't necessarily tied down to mortgage payments, kids in school, etc, frequently drift down the road to other communities, where they have an established social network and jobs are more plentiful, with greater opportunities.

What this means practically, is that Coos and Douglas County are increasingly aging, the core "employment aged worker group" is shrinking. I know personally five individuals that left Coos County in their '20s/ early '30s some 15 years ago to move to the Central Willamette Valley.

In the case of Coos Bay and Roseburg, generally they are more likely to move to places like Eugene/Springfield or Grants Pass/ Medford, and sometimes further afield to Salem/Albany/Corvallis.

Some of the loss of a younger population in these areas, has actually contributed to Democratic vote gains in the Cities of the Rogue River and Willamette Valley....

The similarity between many of these communities in Coos/Douglas and parts of West Virginia and Maine cannot be understated. I would actually add many parts of upstate Wisconsin to the mix as well, where perhaps there is closer similarity to parts of Southern Oregon than WV or ME-02.

Still, there are few counties in Oregon, outside of Eastern Oregon, that I would consider "going the way of WV", but certainly Douglas County would be the one in Western Oregon that would most likely earn that title... (Although Josephine has traditionally been more Republican, it's offset by some surprisingly strong Democratic support in many rural areas, as well as greater demographic changes taking places in the largest population center Grants Pass, that potentially makes it a more elastic voter base. Especially now that there is no such thing as 24x7 law enforcement in Josephine County, and even the City of Grants Pass has almost no cop coverage at night, I wonder how long the anti-tax fervor among California retirees will last in the only place in Oregon that voted Goldwater in '64?


 

So my grandmother lives outside reedsport so I know the whole coast area very well everyone on the river road probably voted for trump coos bay is becoming harder and harder for the democrats to win it's very white also I think there is a bit of coastguard there as well now when you do the redo Douglas county see if you can find the smith river road precinct also Winchester bay would be a good place to cover as well also I wonder if Lincoln county was a fluke or not with it becoming a swing county or just Hillary being the worst candidate ever.