Oregon 2016 GE Pres Results

[NOVA Green]

i just see the Oregon web page, very good they give also precints results
but now they give a turnout of 79,73% higher of your 77,2%
Your analisys s very detailled but maybe did too early?

Yesterday was the final deadline for the counties to certify their results, so all of the precinct level data that I am using is from the final county numbers precinct numbers from the county websites, also called the "Canvass of Votes", or "final certified canvass returns" or something of that nature.

Not all counties post precinct level returns on their county websites, and some counties that do post final precinct level returns haven't yet uploaded the data files, but should in the near future.

The Oregon Secretary of State webpage is pretty cool, but there is a bit of a lag between final numbers getting updated, and although there is a cool precinct level zoom in feature if you click on the county, it doesn't include all counties, and is also slow to update.

So essentially the data that I have used for the county level analysis, are the final numbers, and it's mainly a question of their time in updating the info, and my time pulling all available precinct level data into spreadsheets, consolidating by cities, reviewing the precinct maps, checking against census data, and adding my own observations as someone who has spent many years of my life living in Oregon.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Something is wonky with Benton County on Atlas right now. It has over 120k votes total; write ins are almost beating Trump.

Keep up the good work and hopefully we can get detailed write in data soon.

[Sbane]

I just wanted to stop by and say this is an excellent thread!

Have you looked into the differences between the Presidential vote and the Senate vote?

[NOVA Green]

Something is wonky with Benton County on Atlas right now. It has over 120k votes total; write ins are almost beating Trump.

Keep up the good work and hopefully we can get detailed write in data soon.

I just wanted to stop by and say this is an excellent thread!

Have you looked into the differences between the Presidential vote and the Senate vote?

Firstly, thank you both for the kind words, it's more of a labor of love than anything else, plus it's been a bit of a hobby since I was a teenager back in the late '80s, when I needed to go to either county election offices to manually write-in the data, or to the capital in Salem to go through boxes and boxes of archived data to write-into my notebooks.... unfortunately I tossed all of those in a move some years back, so hundreds of labor hours lost in detailed Oregon County returns from 1980-1992..

@ sbane..... yes I have been looking at the US Senate results as I wade through precinct level data, as well as looking at CD-04 returns in particular, and it's actually quite fascinating that even in heavily Republican Counties @ Presidential and Statewide levels, Wyden performed quite well in many areas, and even our "Liberal Democratic Senator from Portland" actually won decisively in many cities and towns that I would not have expected.

I actually meant to add some of the data for CD-04 and the US Senate Race, as well as Statewide elections starting in my Coos County thread, but got distracted and was trying to wrap the post up.... might need to do a follow-up and summarize some of the city level info contrasted with Presidential returns as I move forward with the Project, but it's pretty clear that many Trump voters are perfectly fine with sending a Liberal Democratic Senator to Washington, and these gaps are most apparent in rural and small-town Oregon, especially in places with a strong ancestral Democratic Party DNA, and where Indies swung hard towards Trump.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #6: Yamhill County

Yamhill County is an historic part of Oregon from the early days of the Oregon Trail, where settlers drained the swamps of the prairies to create profitable small farms, built their New England style Protestant churches, and a bit later on moved further West towards the Eastern foothills of the Pacific Coast Mountain Range to harvest the timber.

It has long been a Republican County, from the early days after the Civil War, even into the Great Depression, the post WW II economic boom, and even into the present day.

Although technically it is considered a part of the census designated Vancouver-Portland MSA, this is pretty bunk, since less than 30% of the County has anything to do with the economy of Metro-Portland proper, although there is a fast growing Exurb in Newberg and a few of the surrounding areas, most individuals that live in Yamhill County work in the County.... there are much quicker and easier commutes for those that want to have the feel of "country" or "small town" living in order to commute to jobs in places like Tigard, Beaverton, Hillsboro, let alone the beast of a commute into Downtown Portland.

Yamhill County (Pop 99.2k) is like much of Oregon overwhelmingly "White" (85.4% in 2010) with a rapidly growing Latino Population (14.7%) as well as a Native American Population (1.5%) with a significantly higher concentration in the Southwest part of the County near the Grande Rhonde Reservation.

Economically, the economy overall is fairly decent in terms of unemployment, household income, and cost of living, with a significant sector involved in agriculture (One of the top wine producing counties in Oregon... try some of the Pinot Noir from one of the local vineyards!), forestry (mainly in the Western Part of the county), manufacturing (Cascade Steel in McMinville, A-Dec in Newberg, etc...), as well as education (Linfield and Chemeketa Community College in McMinville) and (George Fox and PCC-Newberg in Newberg).

Politically, I had it on my potential Oregon County flip list because 55% of the population lives in basically two cities, it has a relatively high educational level, compared to many other counties in the state, a decent size and growing Latino population, and doesn't have the same issues with chronic unemployment and the "boom-bust" cycle of the Timber industry, and although there is a significant "rural" population, this includes a mixture of semi-retired "hobby farmers" that have bought some land and farm Christmas Trees, over 80 wineries and 200 vineyards....

Honest disclosure I have had friends that have worked on the X-Mas tree farms, and lived and worked on owners properties in the vineyards, and no one is worried about their coworkers next to them speaking in a mix of Spanish and English, and anyone that has children in public school in most parts of the county knows the parents of their kids friends that are Latino. Regardless of how Yamhill voted, it was certainly not for a "Build The Wall" mandate.

So back on topic:

Politically Yamhill County has been gradually trending Democratic since 2000....

Here is the Presidential Voting Results from 2000-2016:

2000: (54-40 George W.)   +14 R
2004: (57-42 George W.)   +15 R
2008: (49-48 McCain)       +1 R
2012: (51-45 Romney)      +6 R
2016: (48-40 Trump)         +8 R

So although on paper it appears that Trump is starting to reverse that trend, in actuality he has received the lowest percentage that a Republican Presidential candidate has received in 20+ years.

In terms of the city and precinct level results here is the breakdown that helps explain these changes.

1.) McMinville--- (Pop 32.2k) or almost 30% of the voters in the county is a moderately Democratic City, that is not only the location of the County Seat, but also Linfield University (2.2k student enrollment), has a Latino population of 20.6% of city residents (Up from 14.6% in 2000) and is relatively well off in terms of unemployment and household income, and has a fairly high educational level.

It is definitely NOT a part of Metro Portland, and is essentially the "big city" for most of the county residents.

2008: (53-43 Obama)
2012: (51-46 Obama)
2016: (47-42 Clinton)

Although Trump as able to hold onto almost a McCain % of the votes, it was the lowest level in decades for a Republican nominee.... Clinton was only able to win the city by 700 votes, as opposed to the 1.2k vote lead that Obama garnered in '08, with over 900 votes for Green/Bernie Write-Ins, as well as over 800 for Libertarians.... It's clear that 3rd Party voting hurt Clinton significantly in McMinville.

2.) Newberg (Pop 22.1k) or 22% of County voters. A fast growing exurban city that IS part of Metro-Portland, where individuals might commute to jobs in Washington County in exchange for somewhat cheaper prices for housing, and relatively decent schools, but still a decent proportion of the locals actually work in the surrounding area rather than deal with a longer commute....

There is a decent sized Medical Center located in town, George Fox University, a large privately owned dental equipment manufacturing firm A-Dec that employs >800 individuals. There was a large paper mill that was privately owned that was bought out by a multinational that mothballed the facility back in November of '15 and sent 200 employees to the streets which was ruled a layoff directly impacted by the new company shifting jobs overseas as part of a Department of Labor finding...

Honestly, I'm not sure what impact this had if any on the local election results, but on one hand it made a splash in the community, and Trump was certainly one raising the issue of "Free Trade" more than Clinton in the General Election, so it might have had some small impact on the margins.... IDK

2008: (51-46 McCain)      +5 R
2012: (53-43 Romney)   +10 R
2016: (45-40 Trump)       +6 R

Newberg actually had the biggest swing towards the Democrats of anywhere in Yamhill County between '12 and '16, and was part of the reason that I had this county on a "flip watch list"....

15% of the city voted for 3rd Party / Write-In candidates with almost 600 write-ins alone, the vast majority Bernie ballots....

3.) Sheridan (Pop 6.1k including inmates)---  and accounts for about 3.5% of the county votes. As I alluded to in my pop description, it is home to a medium and high security Federal Correctional Institution (FCI) with 2k inmates, and is basically a community heavily dependent upon income related to jobs tied to the prison.

This city had the biggest swing towards Trump, and locals that don't have jobs or family members employed by FCI-Sheridan, are likely to commute 20-25 minutes West to work at the Casino of Spirit Mountain.

2008: (48-47 McCain)   +1R
2012:  (52-43 Romney)  +9 R
2016:  (57-32 Trump)    +25 R

There is absolutely no question that there was a significant number of Obama '08/ Trump '16 voters here, and it is difficult to believe that Trump's "Law and Order" message wasn't a factor.

It would be interesting to see if anyone else can pull data from smaller communities with a large Prison sector workforce to see if this is an isolated phenomenon, or a pattern.

4.) Willamina- (Pop 2.1k) or 1% of County voters.  Although this is a very small community with only 480 voters in 2016 it is somewhat representative of the SW part of the county. The city is 9% Native American, and is right next to the Grand Rhonde Reservation, houses a large timber mill, and many residents work at the local Spirit Mountain Casino....

2008: (50-43 McCain)    +7 R
2012: (51-39 Romney)   +12 R
2016: (59-25 Trump)      +26 R  (!!!)

Although there is a large Native population, it is still overwhelmingly Non-Latino White, and is a relatively poor and working-class rural community where Trump's message resonated, in one of the more economically depressed parts of the County.

5.) Rural Yamhill---- Accounts for 40% of the countywide vote, and there was roughly an equal drop-off of support for both major party candidates between '12 and '16.

2008: (52-44 McCain)    +8 R
2012: (55-41 Romney)  +14 R
2016:  (53-38 Trump)    +15 R

Obviously these include many different parts of the county, but what stood out to me were the results from Amity and surrounding rural areas (58-31 Trump), NW Yamhill County (57-32 Trump), and SW Yamhill County (58-27 Trump).... considering the dramatic swings from 2008. NW Yamhill County was only a (50-45 McCain) precinct in '08, and although the other two are reliably Republican rural precincts, it was unusual to see the floor completely collapse under the Democratic nominee.

So, I was wrong on my Yamhill potential flip prediction both underestimated the Democratic defections to Green and Bernie in McMinville, saw a greater swing towards Clinton in Newberg than was the case among moderate Republicans and Indies, and also underestimated the dramatic swing in some rural parts of the county....

Still despite all of that Trump still managed to achieve a record low percentage in a reliably Republican County for over two decades or more, and we will see what happens in 2020.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #7: Columbia County

Columbia County (Pop 49.4k 2010), one of the earliest counties in Oregon to experience a significant settler population, as a result of its location on the Lower Columbia River downstream from Portland with the advent of riverboats in the 1850s, and later the railroads, voted Republican for President in 2016 for the first time since 1928.

It is a county shaped by the early Pioneer settlers and Timber and related products were long a dominant part of the economy from the state of the art "world class" mill in Vernonia  that closed in the late 1950s to the pulp and paper mills of cities like St. Helens, Scappoose, and Clatskanie, with both Vernonia and St Helens being referred to as "payroll cities".

The New Deal brought electricity to much of the region as a result of Hydro-Electric dams along the Columbia River (Several classic Woody Guthrie songs such as "Roll on Columbia, Roll on" talk about). Other federal programs benefited the county as well: massive shipbuilding during WW I (St Helens), the large Beaver Army Terminal (Munitions Depot) from WW II until 1964, which was the largest employer in Clatskanie, and the Trojan Nuclear Power Plant in Rainier.

Technically is a part of the Vancouver-Portland MSA, the reality is that outside of a small number of people around Scappoose, there are few that commute into Portland to work. People commute to Longview, WA, to work in the Port, Warehouse, and mfg jobs, and Columbia Co is more like Cowlitz Co, WA (Also Trump flip) than PDX.

Politically, it has voted Democratic for President for decades, the 2000 and 2004 elections were fairly close, continues to support Democrats for the US Senate and House, and not unusual for Columbia Co to support Reps for statewide offices.

Here is how the county voted for President 2000-2016:

2000: (49-44 Gore) +5 D
2004: (50-48 Kerry) +2 D
2008:  (54-42 Obama)  +12 D
2012:  (50-45 Obama)  +5 D
2016:  (38-50 Trump)   +12 R

Meanwhile in 2016 Columbia County voted to reelect Liberal US Senator Ron Wyden (50-39) with an additional 10% of the US Senate vote going to Left-Wing and Green Parties!!!! (The Oregon Progressive Party, Pacific Green Party, and Working Families Party).

Columbia County support a Democrat for US CD-01 (49-46).

Although it backed Republican Bud Pierce for Governor, it was only a 50-42 margin.

The collapse of support for a Democratic Presidential nominee was unprecedented, even in reliably Democratic precincts (Trump on 31/33 precincts in the county).

Although Trump only improve +2 of George W. Bush's 2004 48%, Clinton's support dropped 12% from Kerry's '04 50%, and a similar 12% from Obama's '12 percentage (50.3%).

I have been grappling with the question of what caused this collapse, in a county where there has not been any major demographic change, issues like immigration and terrorism are not major local hot topics, no major local environment/jobs conflicts, overall the unemployment rate and household income level are doing better than many similar parts of the state, there's not a large and vocal evangelical community pushing "Culture War" type issues, and Democrats hold an 8 point voter registration edge (36 D; 28 R- 29 NA; 7 Other).

After a significant review of local newspaper articles, the economic profile of various communities within the county, I think that I have identified the major cause of collapse in Democratic Presidential support in Columbia 2016, as well as similar communities in Washington State, Northern Maine, and even parts of Wisconsin (Looking at you Green Bay area).

The county is less dependent on Forest Products than decades ago, there is still a significant amount of jobs still tied to paper mill related products, that impacts every community in the county, where decent paying union jobs are increasingly difficult to find and two recent mass layoffs caused massive shock ripples throughout the County, as well as neighboring Clatsop County.

1.) The closure of the Georgia-Pacific (Owned by the Koch brothers) Wauna Mill near Clatskanie, Oregon caused an estimated layoff of 900 employees, many of them Union members, and as a result of a Federal finding, workers were eligible for additional support due to "shift in production to another country".

http://media.oregonlive.com/mapes/other/OutrageInOregonFinal2.pdf

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/10/30/263832/-

http://www.camaspostrecord.com/news/2014/apr/01/g-p-mill-navigates-global-local-issues/


2.) Boise Cascade shut down of their mill in St. Helens Oregon, laying off  ~(300+)  heavily union employees at the onset of the Great Recession. Although Cascade Timber ended up buying the mill and has resumed operations, as well as in the process of building another facility down the road in Scappoose, it's unclear if the new owners have a union plant, what the total employment is, and what the new compensation and benefit levels are for grandfathered former employees.

http://tdn.com/business/local/boise-inc-to-cut-jobs-at-st-helens-paper-mill/article_2e7c66ee-b87c-50d1-9587-750ec230384c.html

Regardless of the specific outcomes for individual workers at these facilities, there has been a fundamental argument that Trade Unions in the paper industry have made (In particular the "recycled paper industry" as opposed to the "newsprint" paper mills), that unfair foreign trade competition in particular, has been one of the major reasons for the massive wave of pulp and paper mill closures throughout the United States over the past ten years....

China in particular has been identified as a major reason

http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016/01/china_is_killing_oregons_paper.html

http://mainemeetsworld.bangordailynews.com/2015/12/14/home/where-the-paper-industry-went/


I am 100% convinced that this the major reason for the '16 swings here.

Trump was seen as more authentic on foreign trade issues than Clinton....

Here is a brief summary of city level results from '12/'16 but there are fewer dramatic swings between cities/precincts than I had expected from smaller-cities, small towns, and rural areas....

1.) St. Helens (12.9k Pop)--- (22.8% of County Vote).  

Economy and labor force heavily dominated by manufacturing (22%), construction (16%), retail (11%), transportation and warehousing (10%). Aside from the former Boise Cascade (Now Cascade Timber) plant that I mentioned earlier there are several other large mfg employers, including Armstrong World Industries (Mfg of ceiling tiles) and a company that does metal machining and customized forklift heads for a variety of major Fortune 500 Companies (Including Cat. and Toyota). Each employees ~ (200) employees.

2012: (54-41 Obama)   +13 D
2016: (39-47 Trump)    +8 R

This is a traditional Democratic stronghold, and it is noteworthy that they went heavily Democratic for US Senator, US Rep for CD-01, and even Dem for Governor and most other statewide down-ballot races.

2.) Scappoose- (Pop 6.6k)--- (14% of the county vote).

Although as I mentioned before this county is considered part of Metro-PDX, this is really the only city, as well a few rural precincts South of here, where anyone really considers commuting to Portland via Hwy 30.... there is some local manufacturing remaining, as well as construction starting on a new Cascade Timber paper facility with an estimated (200) construction jobs until the plant opens in Spring of '17 with maybe around (80) permanent FTE.

Likely as a result, the only part of the county to stay Democratic, albeit with a narrow plurality....

2012: (53-43 Obama)  +11 D
2016: (44-42 Clinton)  +2 D

Note the drop-off of both Democratic and Republican Party support.

Still stayed safely Dem for US Senate, CD-01, and statewide elections.

3.) Columbia City--- (Pop 2k 2010)--- (4.8% of county voters).

Essentially a sister city right next door to St. Helens and mirrors trends, but slightly more Republican... Interestingly enough it didn't swing as hard Rep as St. Helens

2012: (53-44 Obama)   +9 D
2016: (44-47 Trump)    +3 R

4.) Vernonia--- (Pop 2.2k)....  (4.1% of county voters).

Once the home of one of the most modern and largest timber processing mills in the United States, that virtually eliminated all of the Old Growth in the Northern Oregon Coast range between 1930 and 1960, it is now a small town that still relies on logging (>120 jobs directly tied to about five small family owned logging companies based in town). As was typical of many small towns and rural communities that relied primarily on logging during the days of Timber Wars of the late '80s and early '90s, it swung Republican, while many of the Mill Towns continue to remain reliably Democratic.

2012: (40-54 Romney)   +14 R
2016: (28-57 Trump)     +29 R

These types of numbers are NOT typical, even for smaller logging based communities in this part of the state....

5.) Rainier-  (Pop 1.9k)--- (3.4% of County Vote)----

Right across the river from Kelso and Longview in Washington State (See Cowlitz County 2016 Presidential Election returns).... and basically the only bridge across the Columbia River between Astoria and Portland, which if you look at it on a map actually means a hella' a lot of mileage for people that work for the factories, ports, and warehouses on either side of the river, let alone business services.... It used to be most well known as the home of the Trojan Nuclear Power Plant (The only one in Oregon) and subject to numerous protests, environmental litigation, etc.... until the facility was closed as a result of a design flaw. The closure of the plant did cause a temporary economic impact in the city (Full disclosure---- when I was in college I met the son of one of the former plant managers who was enrolled in the OSU Nuclear Energy program, and shifted to an economics major), however it has since recovered.    

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trojan_Nuclear_Power_Plant


2012: (50-44 Obama)  +6 D
2016: (38-50 Trump)   +12 R

6.) Clatnaskie--- (Pop 1.7k)---- (2.9% of county population in '16 down from 3.2% in '12).

As I mentioned before, this is the site of a massive layoff from Koch brothers owned Georgia-Pacific, that impacted both Clatsop and Columbia counties, as well as the city itself....

The city and surrounding rural areas, and taxpayers footing the bill for the Koch Brother bailout are still trying to recover....

2012: (46-50 Romney)   +4 R
2016: (34-53 Trump)     +19 R


6.) Rural Columbia County--- (48.2% of County Vote)

2012: (49-47 Obama)   +2 D
2016: (37-52 Trump)   +15 R

Although rural Columbia County swung significantly towards Trump, it was actually only slightly more than the countywide average....

[Nym90]

Thank you for an extremely detailed and informative analysis. I feel as though I know these towns and counties through and through now.

[Dr. Arch]

Has anyone noticed that, according to our database, Write-ins won Polk County?

[RI]

Has anyone noticed that, according to our database, Write-ins won Polk County?

Dave's been having some trouble with Oregon lately. He had write-ins besting Trump in Benton County for a while.

[Skye]

Has anyone noticed that, according to our database, Write-ins won Polk County?

Dave's been having some trouble with Oregon lately. He had write-ins besting Trump in Benton County for a while.

The Oregon SOS site shows those results. It's not Dave's fault. Though I wonder why?

[NOVA Green]

Has anyone noticed that, according to our database, Write-ins won Polk County?

Dave's been having some trouble with Oregon lately. He had write-ins besting Trump in Benton County for a while.

The Oregon SOS site shows those results. It's not Dave's fault. Though I wonder why?

Oregon did update to a new county>state reporting interface for the 2016 General Election, and although I didn't notice any issue with Benton County on the state website, this could be part of the reason for the glitch with Polk County numbers.

I generally work off of the data on the county websites, since I can get raw precinct level data more quickly, and export into spreadsheet software and also many counties don't participate with the precinct level data part of the software yet (Fingers crossed that this will go statewide in 2018).

I do like the fact that for some counties you can get a visual representation of precinct data, and since we don't have a uniform GiS, Shapefile system, I haven't been able to provide graphical representation to the precinct level data I've been reviewing, so for some of the counties I've covered (Clatsop, Columbia, Coos, Benton, Marion, and parts of Yamhill, you can review the precinct maps on the website after checking my city level breakdowns and descriptions if interested.

 

[NOVA Green]

Thank you for an extremely detailed and informative analysis. I feel as though I know these towns and counties through and through now.

Thanks Nym---- much appreciated!

More to come....

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

What's striking about fine-grained results in the Northwest is the degree to which working class voters opted for third party candidates rather than voting for Trump, which reminds me of a similar tendency that occurred in 2000. As far as I can tell, there's some sort of correlation between support for third party candidates and the degree to which a community/precinct is working class, at least in Spokane but it appears that this tendency is present in Eugene as well. There are plenty of precincts where the two-party vote share sits at around 80%...

Another striking tendency is the degree to which all sections of the working class, including dirty bohemians/neo-hippies, swung away from Clinton. Trump's support didn't really erode in the section of Eugene that's dirt poor but known for left-wing activist and bohemian lifestyle choices. On the other hand, Clinton's vote share took a beating. This also occurred in Brown's Addition in Spokane, which has a similar feel to it. On the other hand, in Portland, the more bobo parts nearby Hawthorne clearly swung towards Clinton.

Keep up the good work! This is very interesting and revealing stuff, a reminder that Democratic strength in the Northwest stems from the unusual stability of the working class' support for Democratic candidates. Even in this darkest of years, the erosion of Democratic support in the Northwest looks mild in comparison to the rest of the country.

[MarkD]

Has anyone noticed that, according to our database, Write-ins won Polk County?

Dave's been having some trouble with Oregon lately. He had write-ins besting Trump in Benton County for a while.

The Oregon SOS site shows those results. It's not Dave's fault. Though I wonder why?

Oregon did update to a new county>state reporting interface for the 2016 General Election, and although I didn't notice any issue with Benton County on the state website, this could be part of the reason for the glitch with Polk County numbers.

I generally work off of the data on the county websites, since I can get raw precinct level data more quickly, and export into spreadsheet software and also many counties don't participate with the precinct level data part of the software yet (Fingers crossed that this will go statewide in 2018).

I do like the fact that for some counties you can get a visual representation of precinct data, and since we don't have a uniform GiS, Shapefile system, I haven't been able to provide graphical representation to the precinct level data I've been reviewing, so for some of the counties I've covered (Clatsop, Columbia, Coos, Benton, Marion, and parts of Yamhill, you can review the precinct maps on the website after checking my city level breakdowns and descriptions if interested.

It isn't just Polk County; Lincoln County has impossible-to-believe data about write-in votes too, according to the Sec. of State's website. In fact because of Lincoln and Polk Counties having clearly over-stated data about write-in votes, the Sos is now reporting 124,988 write-in votes, which is greater than Gary Johnson's votes.

[NOVA Green]

Has anyone noticed that, according to our database, Write-ins won Polk County?

Dave's been having some trouble with Oregon lately. He had write-ins besting Trump in Benton County for a while.

The Oregon SOS site shows those results. It's not Dave's fault. Though I wonder why?

Oregon did update to a new county>state reporting interface for the 2016 General Election, and although I didn't notice any issue with Benton County on the state website, this could be part of the reason for the glitch with Polk County numbers.

I generally work off of the data on the county websites, since I can get raw precinct level data more quickly, and export into spreadsheet software and also many counties don't participate with the precinct level data part of the software yet (Fingers crossed that this will go statewide in 2018).

I do like the fact that for some counties you can get a visual representation of precinct data, and since we don't have a uniform GiS, Shapefile system, I haven't been able to provide graphical representation to the precinct level data I've been reviewing, so for some of the counties I've covered (Clatsop, Columbia, Coos, Benton, Marion, and parts of Yamhill, you can review the precinct maps on the website after checking my city level breakdowns and descriptions if interested.

It isn't just Polk County; Lincoln County has impossible-to-believe data about write-in votes too, according to the Sec. of State's website. In fact because of Lincoln and Polk Counties having clearly over-stated data about write-in votes, the Sos is now reporting 124,988 write-in votes, which is greater than Gary Johnson's votes.

Although there was an historic volume of write-ins for a modern Presidential election, this is obviously directly tied to some bugs with the new county uploading system.

Overall write-ins will likely end up around 3.5% of the statewide vote, with the vast majority for Bernie, as well as a significant percentage for Romney/McMullin, particularly in the Mormon Belt of Eastern Oregon, as well as throughout the Valley.

Looking at Polk and Lincoln, it almost looks like there was an extra digit added to the total vote numbers and percentages, which would both be plausible (4.2% WI in Polk and 5.2% in Lincoln)...

Lincoln County was looking normal yesterday, as was Polk a few days back.... The SoS website is going through some maint. issues/downtime, so hopefully we'll get the actual numbers by Monday.

In the case of Lincoln County, it is possible but unlikely that Write-Ins exceeded the Libertarian vote, but even then it would only be potentially 5% at the absolute maximum.

[MarkD]

I meant to say that the statewide tabulation for write-ins is 124,988, which is greater than Johnson's statewide total.

[NOVA Green]

I meant to say that the statewide tabulation for write-ins is 124,988, which is greater than Johnson's statewide total.

Yup... caught it the first time around....

Polk and Lincoln are now the latest culprits to throw off not only their respective county level numbers, but also the total statewide write-in numbers.

Final 2016 results will be Johnson> Write-Ins > Stein, with some 11% of Oregonians voting effectively for the equivalent of ("Non-of the-above), which I think will be the highest level since Perot in '92 and then the 1980 Presidential Election before that, and I'm sure someone with access to the database will be able to factcheck and give exact % for non-major party support levels by Pres GE....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #8: Deschutes County

My first foray into Oregon East of the Cascade Mountain Range....

Deschutes County (Pop 175k as of 2015) is one of the newest counties in Oregon created in 1916 as a result of succession movement from neighboring Crook County. Named after the Deschutes River, where some French fir trappers explored back in the days, two ranchers showed up in 1862 with (900) head of cattle and for decades after the economy was basically ranching and potato farming.

The railroad and the mills arrived between 1910-1920 that created a significant economic boom and population increase, but was essentially a relatively low population and economic growth part of the state until the 1970s.

The expansion of higher education and formation of the Central Community Oregon College in Bend provided new opportunities for upwards mobility for those throughout the neighboring region (Including Jefferson & Crook Counties), and as the role of timber in the economy faded, the county shifted dramatically towards a tourism based economy by the 1970s to leverage the natural advantages of year-round outdoor activities, from skiing in the Winter to Whitewater rafting, hiking, and mountain biking in the Summer.

The County began to intentionally market itself towards retirees and California migrants through luxury resorts, retirement communities in places like Sunriver, Black Butte, and Eagle Crest, where one could go golfing in the morning, whitewater rafting or skiing in the afternoon, and enjoy a nice four star meal at the resort, and a spa and massage afterwards before bedtime.

It has been featured in all types of publications from Men's Journal, to Sunset Magazine, consistently rated one of the top ten retirement destinations, etc...

As a result, for Deschutes County has had the highest population growth rate by percentage in the entire state for decades, in fact the hottest housing market in the entire US during the Mid-2000s housing boom.... During the great recession it was hit hardest and housing values collapsed by 50% in Bend, 53% in Redmond, and although the housing market has improved it is below "Pre- Great Recession" levels".

Regardless, the population growth continues, and it is virtually impossible to find a rental unit in Bend, and even $250k houses are snatched up in less than a week, while meanwhile working-class communities are commuting from places that are a 40 minute drive like Madras and Prineville, unless they were lucky enough to buy a home in Redmond before the property values shot through the roof.

Deschutes County has long been a solidly Republican County in the state, mainly because of a significant but declining rural component, combined with the fairly high income and educational levels of many of the California transplants, that although they are extremely socially liberal tend to lean a bit more fiscally conservative when it comes to taxation policy.

This has all been changing dramatically over the past few decades, as the Republican Party has increasingly abandoned moderate positions on many core issues for their traditional Deschutes County base.

US PRES GE RESULTS (2000-2016)

2000: (56-38 George W).   +18 R
2004: (56-42 George W)    +14 R
2008: (49*-49 McCain)     + 0.3% R
2012: (52-47 Romney)      +5 R
2016: (47-43 Trump)        +4 R

Note the dramatic decline of countywide Republican numbers, and if we look at the minor party candidate numbers, it is even more concerning, since a large number of these votes were in heavily Democratic precincts within the county....

Meanwhile, Deschutes county overwhelmingly voted to reelect the incumbent Liberal Democratic Senator, reelect a "moderate Republican" Greg Walden in OR- CD02 (Who did quite well even in heavily Democratic precincts in Bend), and voters in the Oregon House district where Bend is located decided to reelect a moderate Republican to the State house, in a seat that the Democrats captured back in '10.

Results by City:

1.) Bend--- (Pop 87.1k)   49.1% of the County Vote

Contrary to some of the stereotypes of Bend that I have seen thrown around in various threads on the Forum, Bend is actually not, and has never been, some sort of "granola munching, pot-smoking hippie snowboarder, community. (I could claim that El Paso is a similar community, if based solely upon a handful of precincts and a visible alternative culture). The reality is that since the mid-late 1990s, many neighborhoods now increasingly look more like upper-middle class parts of communities in smaller communities in Northern California than anything else.

Pres GE Results (2000-2016)

2000: (42-50-6 George W)    +8 R     (Nader is the 6%)
2004: (48-49    George W)    +1 R
2008: (57-41 Obama)           +16 D
2012: (53-44 Obama)           +9 D
2016: (52-36-12 Clinton)      +16 D

The most interesting item here, is that unlike many other parts of Oregon, Clinton was able to match Obama '12 numbers, while Republican support completely collapsed.... Additionally, if we look at the distribution of 3rd Party voters, it looks like there were a significant number of McCain '08/ Romney '12/ Clinton '16 crossovers....


2.) Redmond (Pop 26.2k)   13.2% of the County Vote

Just like Bend is one of the fastest growing communities in the state, however Redmond for the past 20 years has increasingly become a working-class and middle-class commuter community, that itself is being priced out of the local housing market, and average housing prices have increased by 77% (Greater than Bend's 58% increase) over the past few years.

Meanwhile several of the largest private sector employees in the city Bright Wood (Forest Products company) and a major call center have laid off employees, with some gradual rehires, while many local residents commute 25 minutes for $12-14/Hr jobs or less into Bend.

Like most other working-class regions in Oregon facing gentrification the Latino population has doubled since 2000 and 2010 (12.5% in '10).

Pres GE Results (2000-1016):

2000: (35-59-4 George W.)    +24 R
2004: (34-64 George W.)       +30 R
2008: (41-56 McCain)            +15 R
2012: (37-59 Romney)          +22 R
2016: (31-58-11 Trump)        +27 R

Several interesting notes here.... Despite the dramatic population increase, Republican numbers have stayed relatively constant, in a fairly WWC town, with a surge towards W. in '04, and a reverse surge towards Obama in '08.

3.) Sisters--- (Pop 2.0k) as of 2010. 1.4% of the County Vote.

Sisters is one of those small towns that if you're not planning on spending the night there, will likely do a pit stop on your way towards Bend from Salem. A lot of artsy pricey stores that you window shop at, maybe grab a bite to eat at a local joint....

2000: (33-56-7 George W.)     +23 R
2004: (37-61 George W.)        +24 R
2008: (47-50 McCain)             +3 R
2012: (45-53 Romney)           +8 R
2016: (43-45-12 Trump)        +2 R

That's actually pretty crazy looking this historically low level of Republican support in Sisters.... Clinton actually came closer to winning the city for the first time, even compared to a candidate like Obama who would seem "tailor made" to appeal to this type of community.

4.) La Pine---- (Pop 1.7k).... 0.8% of Countywide votes

Not totally sure exactly what's going on here, but it seems that a mix of it's relatively remote location from the "Metro Bend" area combined with a historical resistance to incorporation as a city for tax reasons (Didn't happen until '06), and a higher than average concentration of old-timers from an era when the County used to be heavily Republican have a unique effect.

2004: (39-61 George W.)   +22 R
2008: (37-58 McCain)        +21 R
2012: (40-56 Romney)      +16 R
2016: (26-64-10 Trump)    +38 R


5.) Rural Deschutes County

This is a bit of a misnomer, in that this includes a decent population that lives outside of cities like Bend, Redmond, Sisters, and La Pine.... it also includes some various "resorts" around the county that have a significant number of year around residents.

2000:  (35-58-4 George W.)   +23 R
2004:  (37-62  George W.)     +25 R
2008: (42-56 McCain)           +14 R
2012: (38-59 Romney)          +21 R
2016: (35-56-9 Trump)          +21 R

"Rural" Deschutes accounts for 35% of the total population in 2016, down from 46% in 2000.

Meanwhile for fun.... results from a few precincts predominately upper-income resorts:

Precinct 16- Sunriver-  (40-58 Romney); (47-45 Clinton)
Precinct 15- Black Butte (42-57 Romney); (44-48 Trump)
Precinct 31 Eagle Crest- (33-66 Romney); (34-59 Trump)






 

[NOVA Green]

One item that I neglected to mention in my preceding post, is an unusually high level of political polarization, compared to virtually any other counties that I have seen in Oregon.

For example:

If we look at Bend (Precincts 1,3,4,7 & 27) Clinton won by 34-51% margins over Trump.... the Republican nominee barely received 20% of the total vote in 4/5 of these precincts....

Meanwhile you have several other precincts in Bend (Pct 2,20, 25, 26, 33, 34, 44) that appear to be either relatively new developments on the outskirts of the city, or rural areas incorporated into city limits, where Trump won narrowly or lost narrowly...

Additionally to places that went overwhelmingly Trump, like heavily sagebrush rangleland areas of SE & NE Deschutes County (Expected).... there were some major rural precincts outside of La Pine where Trump won by >30% margins, as well as some rural areas outside of Redmond.

These are places in the county, where there was a major increase in support for the Republican nominee between '12 and '16, which is actually more similar to patterns that we have seen in other parts of Eastern Oregon. Granted this development appears to be concentrated in already heavily Republican precincts, it is still noteworthy, and does account for a significant chunk of the "rural" swing in Deschutes County between '12 and '16.

[politicallefty]

Although Columbia County is technically part of the Portland-Vancouver MSSA, the reality is that most residents don't commute into Portland to work, and it certainly doesn't resemble any definition of an "Exurban" County, although there is a population of South County residents around Scappoose-Warren and St Helens that commute to Portland or Vancouver.

Instead, there are many residents that commute to work in Longview, Washingon (Cowlitz County) where there was a major ILWU strike against an international consortium that was hiring Non-Union cheap subcontractors from out of the area, despite receiving $200 Million in Tax breaks as part of "sweetheart economic development deal". It's a complicated story, but this resonated in Cowlitz and Columbia Counties, which had some of the biggest county level swings in Washington & Oregon respectively....

Obama outperformed his national average in both of these deeply Union counties in both '08 and '12, although in statewide elections, Republicans have been successful for lower down-ballot election races over the past few decades.

I read the entirety of your post, but I cut it down so we don't have massively long quotes.

Anyway, I do understand what you're saying. The swing is representative of a larger regional swing among white working-class voters to Trump. The question I have is how indicative is that of future trends. In other words, is the swing in that larger region just due to Trump or is it turning into Southwestern Oregon(/Far Northern California) that once voted Democratic years ago?

It might be noteworthy that Kate Brown did about the same this year as Kitzhaber did in 2014 in Columbia County and the statewide margin was only marginally better for Brown. I hope that's not a sign of things to come.

[NOVA Green]

What's striking about fine-grained results in the Northwest is the degree to which working class voters opted for third party candidates rather than voting for Trump, which reminds me of a similar tendency that occurred in 2000.

Ok---- so first questions first 1.) " The swing is representative of a larger regional swing among white working-class workers to Trump" and  2.) "is the swing in that larger region just due to Trump, or is it turning into a SW Oregon/Far NorCal that voted Democratic years ago".

@ PoliticalLefty

1.) If we are solely talking about the lower Columbia River and Northern Oregon Coast of a WWC swing towards Trump, I don't think it's the case, but there were Obama '08/'12 voters for Trump in Columbia County, and to lesser extent in Clatsop and Tillamook Cos. If we move into Southern Oregon and the SW Oregon Coast, in Coos County there were a decent amount of similar voters, and if we look at Douglas, Linn, and various precincts/cities in Josephine/Jackson there is a similar phenomenon (Although I haven't fully run the numbers on those four counties yet).

I'll let some of our resident experts on Washington State (RI, Alcon, and others) jump in on places like Cowlitz, Pacific Counties, etc and the swing towards Trump within "the region", but the trends in the NW Oregon Coastal/Columbia River areas definitely transcend state lines.

2.) If I take your question regarding will the region "turn into a version of SW Oregon that used to vote Democratic years ago", and I apply that directly to Columbia County, as well as some neighboring communities in Oregon, like Clatsop/Tillamook, as well as some similar counties in Washington State across the river, I am fairly skeptical on that front.

        Exhibit A.) Although there was definitely a major swing towards the Republican Presidential   nominee in Columbia County '16, these results did not materialize as dramatically in Federal Races *US Senate & US Congressional races".

US Democratic Senator Ron Wyden won overwhelmingly in Columbia County (50-39 Democratic), although there was a massive defection to the Political Left of votes that went for the Working Families Party & Pacific Green Party, as well as Steven Reynolds (Progressive Party), all of whom rejected the Neo-Liberal and Corporatist agenda of Free Trade agreements run amok...

St. Helens (52-35-13 DEM)      +27 D
Scappoose (54-31-15 DEM)      +23 D
Clastskanie (48-39-13 DEM)     +9 D
Columbia City (55-35-10 DEM)  +20 D
Rainier (49-40-11 DEM)            +9 D
Vernonia (41-46-13 DEM)          +5 R
RURAL COL (49-41-10 DEM)     +8 D

Okay.... meanwhile Columbian County residents vote the following for OR-CD 01 (49-46 D)

St Helens (51-43 D)       +8 D     (-9 D from '14)
Scappoose (53-42 D)      +11 D   (+1 D from '14)
Clatskanie (46-48 R)       +2 R     (-21 D from '14)
Columbia City (53-43 D)  +10 D  (-6 D from '14)
Rainier (49-47 D)            +2 D     (-20 D from '14)
Vernonia (39-54 R)         +15 R    (-20 D from '14)
Rural Col. Cty (47-48 R).  + 1 R    (-12 D from '14)

Now if we rewind back to 2014 we see something like the following:

Merkley has long been a political leader that comes from rural small-town Southern Oregon Timber Country, who not only has the distinction of being the only US Senator to endorse Bernie Sanders, but also a statewide Democratic political leader that is not from a background in Metro-Portland, and talks a common-sense Democratic economic populist agenda, in some ways reminiscent of Peter DeFazio (OR-04)

US Senate (Merkley-DEM): (50-40 D)

St. Helens: (53-37 D)      +26 D
Scappoose: (52-39 D)      +13 D
Clatskanie: (45-44 D)       +2 D
Columbia City: (55-35 D)  +20 D
Rainier: (51-40 D)            +11 D
Vernonia: (43-48 R)         +5 R
Rural County: (50-40 D)   +10 D

Now, if we look at the results in CD-01 in Columbia County between '14 and '16, it does appear that Trump had an impact in picking up the Republican on the ticket:

St. Helens: (56-39 D)    +17 D
Scappoose: (53-43 D)    +10 D
Clatskanie: (57-38 D)     +19 D
Columbia City: (56-40 D)  +16 D
Rainier: (56-40 D)            +16 D
Vernonia: (50-45 D)         +5 D
RURAL COL: (53-42 D)     +11 D

If we hit the rewind button further back, these are the results from OR-CD01 2012 (54-32 D):

St. Helens (55-31 D)         +24 D
Scappoose: (56-29 D)        +27 D
Clatskanie: (51-37 D)        +24 D
Columbia City: (59-29 D)   +30 D
Rainier: (55-33 D)             +22 D
Vernonia: (47-45 D)          +2 D
Rural Col Cty: (54-37 D)     +17 D

Although Trump definitely appears to have had a down-ballot influence in Columbia County in terms of votes for the Republican for Oregon CD-01, it doesn't appear that had any impact whatsoever in terms of the US Senate Race, where Senator Wyden was widely castigated in rural Oregon as a major proponent of TPP, as well as an early and solid backer of Clinton, and then did a backtrack on TPP and Free Trade agreements in August, and said he would support it if it included "labor and environmental" standards ( a la Gore 2000).

Needless to say, this was seen as a more authentic position than H. Clinton, who was widely perceived as part of the "Centrist Wing" of the Democratic Party since the days of Bill Clinton, where "Free Trade" agreements took supremacy over protecting American jobs from unfair foreign trade practices.

Obama performed extremely well in Columbia County precisely because he was seen as a "New Deal" style Democrat, and although he wasn't able to achieve 50% of the economic and policy reform items on his agenda, was and still is extremely popular in Columbia County. Clinton was not able to deliver a coherent economic message to a relatively prosperous WWC and historically solidly Democratic community that doesn't give an F*** about a cultural conservative economic agenda, is totally chill with their Mexican-American coworkers/neighbors/parents at their kids schools, not crazy about going to war overseas, no major beef with environmentalists (s**t we all like to fish), no one is worried about their guns getting seized....   "it's all about the economy stupid"

"DeadFlag"---- haven't forgotten about you mate, still following up with Political Lefty...

3.) "It might be noteworthy that Kate Brown did about the same this year as Kitzhaber did in 2014 in Columbia County and the statewide margin was only marginally better for Brown. I hope that's not a sign of things to come."

This might be true in many other states, but the reality of Oregon politics is that Statewide Elections are not necessarily the best indicator of how people vote in terms of national elections....

Oregonian Gubernatorial Elections (As well as many statewide elections in general( are typically much more defined in GE campaign ads as an "Upstate" vs "Downstate"scenario where Republican Moderate candidates try to play against the "bureaucrats" in Salem and Metro-Portland to be able to rack up enough votes downstate, and also pick up a sufficient percentage in suburban Portland (Washington & Clackamas) to be able to override the Democratic margins from Multnomah County.... Needless to say the strategy has never really played off... 2016 was an exception with a moderate Republican picking off the SoS position, but that had more to do with a controversial Democratic nominee than anything else....

Still Columbia County Statewide Races: ( Governor '16 42-50 R)

St Helens: (45-46 R)    +1 R
Scappoose: (46-47 R)   +1 R
Clatskanie: (44-46 R)   +2 R
Col City: (45-49 R)       +4 R
Rainier: (45-48 R)        +3 R
Vernonia: (36-55 R)    +18 R
Rural: (40-53 R)         +13 R

Compare to 2014:

St Helens: (45-46 R)    +1 R
Scappoose: (45-48 R)   +3 R
Clatskanie: (35-59 R)   +24 R
Col City: (49-46 R)       +3 D
Rainier: (46-47 R)        +1 R
Vernonia: (37-58 R)    +21 R
Rural: (41-50 R)         +9  R

I could also go back and pull the numbers, but Columbia County narrowly voted for Democrat for Attorney General in '16, and Democrat for State Treasurer and Secretary of State in '12.

Meanwhile if we look at State Senate and State House Races, this is still a heavily Democratic District.

So, Columbia County has a history of sometimes voting Republican for statewide elections, and still continues to back Democrats for Federal Elections, although Trump as an anomaly because of his position on trade issues...

4.) @ DeadFlag (Love your screen avatar name... reminds me of an old skool Punk Band from the '80s' )

"What's striking about fine-grained results in the Northwest is the degree to which working class voters opted for third party candidates rather than voting for Trump"

" As far as I can tell, there's some sort of correlation between support for third party candidates and the degree to which a community/precinct is working class"

"Another striking tendency is the degree to which all sections of the working class, including dirty bohemians/neo-hippies, swung away from Clinton"

"As far as I can tell, there's some sort of correlation between support for third party candidates and the degree to which a community/precinct is working class"

These are all extremely astute and observant points, particularly within a context where "working-class voters" are often perceived through the stereotypes of being Male, White, and involved in industries like construction, transportation, and factory work.

The reality is that Oregon is a heavily Blue Collar state (Despite the stereotypes), with one of highest percentages of workers in the manufacturing sector nationally,

Although Trump significantly over-performed Republican percentages in some counties West of the Cascades (Coos & Columbia jump out), as well as in some heavily rural parts of the state (Many Linn and Douglas precincts), he had a complete collapse in working-class precincts, not only in Metro-Portland, but also in other major cities like Salem, Corvallis, Eugene, & Springfield....

In many of the cities of Western Oregon, there was a significant defection to the Left (3rd Party and Write-Ins), where although there was a huge drop-off from Obama '12 numbers, many of these voters voted Green, Libertarian, or decided to write Bernie in on their ballot....

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/9/7/1321393/-Oregon-Political-Geography-Putting-some-things-together

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #9: Jefferson County   (Pop--- 21.7k 2010)

Another county from Central Oregon, located directly North of Deschutes County, and although geographically it shares many similarities, from the Western portion on the Eastern foothills of the Cascade Mountain range and the Deschutes River running through on it's path towards the Columbia River, and the Central and Eastern part of the county a mixture of flat high plains with rocky buttes interspersed, it is very different in terms of the overall county demographics.

1.) It is much more ethnically diverse than Deschutes County and 19% of the population is Native American (Warm Springs Indian Reservation is partially located within the County), as well as 19% Latino, as well as a sizable population of mixed ethnic backgrounds.

2.) It has a significantly lower per capita/family and household income than Deschutes County, albeit with a significantly lower cost of housing.

3.) It also has a significantly lower level of educational attainment than Deschutes (38% Bachelors Degree or higher), versus less than 20% in Jefferson.

Economically, it is a county heavily dependent on agriculture, forest products (Largest employer is the Warm Springs Forest Products Industry located on the reservation), and tourism, and increasingly is a bedroom community for people that live in places like Madras and the Crooked River Ranch, that do a long commute to Bend or Redmond, where the cost of living makes it harder and harder to survive on a working-class and middle-class income.

As a direct result it is the 3rd fastest growing county in the state by percentage, along with neighboring Deschutes and Crook County.

Politically: It has long been a reliably Republican County at the State and Federal level, although Dukakis did win 48% in '88, Dem Senator Wyden won here solidly in '16 (And frequently US Senate races only have a +5-8 R margin), and Dems can occasionally win at the Statewide levels for positions like SoS, AG, and Treasury Secretary. Also it did vote for the Dem House candidate in OR-HD #59 where there was a competitive election in '06 and '08.

Presidential Election Results 2000-2016:

2000: (39-56 George W.)  +17 R
2004: (40-59 George W.)  +19 R
2008: (44-53 McCain)       +9 R
2012: (40-57 Romney)     +17 R
2016: (32-58 Trump)        +26 R

So despite the "demographics are destiny" argument, we clearly observe a pattern where the Republican Pres GE candidate clearly was able to effectively meet George W.'s numbers from 2000/2004, as well as basically matching Romney's 2012 numbers.

The obvious secondary element is why did Clinton's percentage of the vote collapse to virtual record lows within the county, despite when in theory ethnic demographics should heavily favor the Democrats against a candidate like Trump?

Ok--- let's look at some of the precinct level results....

I will take a slight break from my traditional model of focusing mainly on cities and combining rural numbers together, since in a county where only 25% of the population lives within a "city" we lose granularity....

1.) Madras- (Pop 6.1k) is the only city proper in the county, and the vast majority of residents commute outside of the city for work, mainly working service jobs in Bend/Redmond, agricultural jobs within the county, or timber mill jobs on the reservation. Although the city is almost 40% Latino and 7% Native American, almost 33% of the population is <18 years old.

Unlike Umatilla and Malhaur Counties in Eastern Oregon, there is a relatively low proportion of migrant farmworkers and family members working under the H2-A program as foreign national guestworkers (Roughly about 5% of the County Population), so the vast majority of Latinos in the County and City are US Citizens, albeit with a high percentage of minors and lower registration and turnout rates than elsewhere in the city/county/state.

Madras Pres Election Results (2004-2016):

2004: (43-56 George W).   +13 R
2008: (49-48  Obama)       +1 D
2012: (46-50  Romney)      +4 R
2016: (35-51  Trump)         +26 R

Wow!   So obviously the Republican numbers have collapsed since 2004, but with a slight trending towards Republican between '08 and '16. How much of this are Anglos swinging heavily Republican as the Latino population increases? Regardless it can't explain how Clinton somehow managed to lose 11% of the Democratic vote from Obama '12 numbers.... Greens captured 3.2%, Libertarian 6.6%, and Write-Ins (Bernie?) 4.1%..... It appears that the Latino/Anglo/Native American Millennials overwhelmingly voted 3rd Party, while Trump captured a handful of Anglo & Latino cross-over votes...

Madras is a city that typically Democrats need to win by big margins in order to have a majority vote in the county (US Sen '16, OR SoS '04, and even went Dem for US Sen in '10 and '14, despite Rep victories in the County.

2.) Crooked River Ranch---- Pop 5k ()   Precinct 02

Contrary to its name, this is actually an unincorporated 19,000 acre development, that used to be known for their RV Parks, Gold courses, and hiking trails, that is now a major HOA development that appeals to people that can't afford to live in Deschutes County, and are willing to do the 30-40 minute commute in exchange for cheaper housing prices.

It is overwhelmingly non-Latino White community, and has an extremely low rate of people with college degrees, with an occupational structure heavily concentrated in sectors like agriculture, forest products, and construction.

In many ways it is a bellwether precinct for the county, although with a +5% Republican tilt.

2004: (39-60 George W.)    +21 R
2008: (43-55 McCain)         +12 R
2012: (37-61 Romney)       +24 R
2016: (28-65 Trump)          +27 R

3.) Warm Springs----- (Pop 2.4k)

The entire precinct (014) is located on Tribal Land and the population is 93% Native American and 6% Latino.... It is the only precinct so far in Oregon located entirely on Native Lands (See my Yamhill County Update upthread for the Siletz Nation where Tribal land is also mixed within a settler population within the precinct.

It is also the only solidly Democratic Precinct in the entire county, although there are some Lean Dem precincts, and swing Dem precincts elsewhere)

2004:  517 Votes (75-22 Kerry)   +53 D
2008:  529 Votes (85-12 Obama)   +73 D
2012:  468 Votes (86-12 Obama)   +74 D
2016:  530 Votes (68-12 Clinton)   +56 D.... (Greens 4%, Libs 5%, Write-ins 10%).

So interestingly enough voter turnout remained consistent on Native Land, with the exception of a massive drop in '12....  Meanwhile the Democratic % of the vote surged under Obama and collapsed under Clinton with 20% of the voters writing in Bernie Sanders, or backing Jill Stein or Gary Johnson... so right there you have a major trust issue with Native American voters that expanded well beyond the sovereign nation to almost all communities in the county, where many Natives have left the tribal land and live and work elsewhere, but still stay close to the community.

Now lest some of my Republican and Indie friends on the forum think I'm going all hack, Warm Springs is actually quite friendly towards Republican Congressman Walden (OR-CD2), and populist Democrat Merkley (Southern Oregon Mill Town Boy) barely beat Republican Gordon Smith (Eastern Oregon Mormon Agricultural Boy) out here in 2010. Warm Springs will also frequently provide relatively high levels of support for statewide Republican candidates, so throw your stereotypes of Native voters out the window, along with some of my Liberal friends on the forum that think Native votes don't need to be earned.

4.) Rant Aside....

Rural Jefferson County---- there are a large number of votes outside of the communities above, but the pattern appears to mirror more of a collapse of Democratic Votes than an increase in Republican votes, albeit in heavily Anglo voting precincts.

A few larger population rural precincts:

Pct01- Haystack (19-73 Trump)... (27-70 Romney)... (31-65 McCain)...(31-68 George W.)
Pct21- Central   (32-57 Trump)... (39-59 Romney)... (41-54 McCain)... (37-62 George W.)
Pct22- Sunset   (20-71 Trump)... (27-71 Romney)...  (33- 64 McCain)... (50-49 Kerry)

I could roll through a smaller population rural precincts that swung against Trump compared to Romney '12 numbers (pct 16: Camp Sherman) and some other rural pcts that swung towards Trump, but I think y'all get the point.

Democratic numbers collapsed in places like Madras and Warm Springs towards 3rd Party Candidates as a result of the surging Millennial population, Republican numbers generally held steady between '12 and '16, and generally reverted to '04 numbers with the exception of some heavily Anglo areas like Crooked River Ranch, and Haystack.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #10: Multnomah County   (Pop 790,000---2015)

Time to shift from relatively small rural counties on the Oregon Coast, a few small and medium-sized counties in the Upper Willamette Valley, and the largest population center East of the Cascades, to the largest county in the lovely state of Oregon.

Multnomah County accounts for almost 25% of the total statewide votes, with almost all of the population of the 26th largest city in the US living within the county limits. 80% of the population is located within the City of Portland (632k--2015), and most of the rest within the 4th largest city in the state Gresham (106k---2015). Although there are a small number of residents in unincorporated areas, and a few smaller cities located within the county (Troutdale, Lake Oswego, Maywood Park, Fairview, and Wood Village), the county is overwhelmingly Portland and Gresham.

Portland is a city that went from a relatively small West Coast Port town to a large city as a direct result of WWI and WWII. The timber that was harvested and processed in the timber mills throughout the state to build the wooden fighter planes and wooden ships, created an economic boom during the First World War. In order to curtail the wildcat strikes of the Industrial Workers of the World in the Timber Camps of the region, there were military units that built railroads and logged forests of military quality timber throughout the Tillamook National Forest to be processed closer to Portland.

By the time WW II rolled around, Portland was starting to develop one of the largest Steel Industries in the West Coast, the largest dry-dock on the Pacific Coast, and one of the largest Ports to support the war effort on the "Western Front".

Portland/Vancouver benefited immensely not only as a result of the short-term benefit of heavy industrial production for the War Effort, but also as a result of the Post-War Boom where Labor & Management would work through collective bargaining agreements to bring both profits to the operators, and significant increase in wages for the workers in the shipping, warehousing, and manufacturing industries associated.

Despite the expanding influence of the Union Movement, Multnomah County didn't start to shift Democratic for Presidency until 1964, and even then it wasn't until the 1980s where it started to become a heavily Democratic County (1988--- 62-37 Dukakis)....

Although in more recent years Portland has developed a stereotype as a result of a few shows like Portlandia, as being a trendy, hippie, mecca, the reality is that it has long been and still is in many ways, a gritty working-class Port town combined with the overlap of the social & cultural movements of the '70s and '80s:  (Portland has the 2nd highest of LGBT residents of any city outside of SF); (Strong & visible environmentalist community); (Anti-War movements); (Living Wage & Anti-Poverty Movements), etc....

That being said.... Multnomah County is basically a tale of (3) counties: West Portland, East Portland, and East County, that although have core identities as part of the core of "Metro-Portland" also have distinct individual characters as well as political voting patterns.

So firstly, MultCo Pres Voting from 2000-2016:

2000: (64-28 Gore).... Nader got 7%    +36 D
2004: (72-27 Kerry)....                         +45 D
2008: (77-21 Obama)...                       +56 D
2012: (75-21 Obama)...                       +54 D
2016: (73-17 Clinton)...                       +56 D

So firstly where did the drop between Obama '08 and McCain '08 numbers go when it came to Clinton vs. Trump, and also why did the Dem numbers remain constant between '04 and '16, while the Republican numbers dropped 10% in only 12 years?

Let's start with the municipalities:

Portland---

2004: (76-23 Kerry)                                                                     +53 D
2008: (81-17 Obama)                                                                  +64 D
2012: (79-16 Obama)                                                                  + 63 D
2016: (78-13 Clinton)---  (3.4 Green, 2.9 Lib, 3.0 Write-In)           +65 D

So, note that the Democratic level of support remained constant in Portland between '12 and '16, with a significant increase in support for "the Left" with Green votes and Bernie Write-Ins....

Gresham:

2004: (52-47 Kerry)                                                                            +5 D
2008: (56-41 Obama)                                                                          +15 D
2012: (55-42 Obama)                                                                        +13 D
2016: (49-39 Clinton)... (2.5 Green, 5.0 Lib, 4.2 Write-Ins)                 +10 D

What's interesting here is that unlike Portland, Democratic numbers collapsed much larger than Republican numbers, but still Trump still managed to perform quite a bit lower than McCain/Romney, and still didn't managed to even recapture a minor fraction of the Bush 2004 voters....

Troutdale (Pop 15k) located way over in East County might appear to be one of the few bright points for Republican in MultCo in '16:

2004: (50-49 Kerry)                                                                   +1 D
2008: (55-43 Obama)                                                                 +12 D
2012: (51-46 Obama)                                                                  +5 D
2016: (44-43 Clinton)... (2.5 Green, 5.7 Lib, 4.7 Write-Ins)         +1 D

However, despite the collapse of Democratic numbers between '08 and '16, Trump was not able to capitalize and instead only tied McCain '08 numbers, and not improving at least more towards Romney '12, let alone Bush '04 numbers, in a city that demographically might be in some ways more receptive than in many other parts of Metro-Portland....

There are a few other small cities located partially or fully within county limits, but I'll cover them on the next part.

Multnomah County---- Part II will go into greater detail for individual precincts, since there is a singular lack of granularity looking solely at municipal level results....

I'm working on trying to match the GE Pres results from '04/'08 with the '12/'16 results since redistricting made it more difficult to do an "apples to apples" comparison, and also I want to provide some context for the various neighborhoods and House CDs within Multnomah County, and all of that will exceed the max posting limit for an individual post....

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Deschutes County was definitely an interesting read. I also had no idea that there were any significant Indians Reservations in Oregon. Any news on the write ins? (On the CA end of things, the SoS should be publishing all of them soon).

[NOVA Green]

Deschutes County was definitely an interesting read. I also had no idea that there were any significant Indians Reservations in Oregon. Any news on the write ins? (On the CA end of things, the SoS should be publishing all of them soon).

Thanks Dreamboat---- appreciate the feedback. I try to incorporate a broader history and story into what otherwise could be simply dry statistics, that lack context, and essentially meaning....

Regarding the two items you mentioned:

1.) Indian Reservations/ Native Populations in Oregon---

There are only two large Native Nations ("Reservations") in Oregon in terms of total land area:

      A.) Warm Springs (1,019.385 Square Miles) mainly in Jefferson and Wasco Counties, with over 3,300 residents located on the Reservation and 4.4k Tribal Members.

     B.) Umatilla (271,047 Square Miles) located predominately in Umatilla County, and a sliver in Union County. There are approximately 4.7k people living on the reservation, including 1.5k Non-Natives

   C.) There are other various reservations located in Oregon, that although there are extremely small populations of 1st Nation citizens living on the reservations are still important focal points for the diaspora, most notably the Grande Rhonde and Siletz (Yamhill, Polk, & Lincoln Counties), the Coos, Lower Umpqua, and Coquille (Coos County), as well as some smaller amounts of Native Land in SE Oregon (Harney & Klamth in particular).

  D.) There is a relatively large population of Native Americans in many parts of Oregon, even outside of the three counties (Jefferson, Wasco, & Umatilla) where there is a large tribal population directly connected to the two major reservations in the state:
     A.) Klamath County (4.6% Native), Lincoln (3.9% Native), Harney (3.7% Native), Coos (2.9%   Native), Marion (2.5% Native), Polk (2.5% Native), Lake (2.3% Native), Curry (2.2% Native).

Obviously it is extremely difficult to look at the Native American vote overall in Oregon, when you have a population that is spread far and wide through all corners of the state, and generally outside of a handful of precincts is not concentrated in very many areas where it is easy to correlate 2016 Pres GE performance with the 1st Nation vote....

I think it is reasonable to make an argument based upon the heavily Native counties in Montana, Alaskan district level returns, Menominee Co Wisconsin, combined with Warm Springs Oregon, to make an argument that there was a significant drop-off from Obama '12 support to Clinton '16 among Native Americans, with the bulk of the defection going towards 3rd Party candidates and Write-In votes, but there's still more precinct level data to be pulled from places like Arizona/New Mexico/Washington, etc before we can definitively state that to be fact.

2.) Oregon Write-Ins

Unfortunately, I do not have any updates.... I've been trolling through the various online county precinct abstracts, and NONE are posting any write-in result breakdowns, outside of mayor, county dogcatcher (joke) and such.... although I know that Oregon doesn't require Write-Ins to be counted if they won't change the election, I still think that individual counties still probably retain that data in a hard-copy format, although I don't know if it will end up in the archives in Salem (Which used to be the case when I would spend hours and hours hand writing returns, with detailed county level breakdowns of Write-Ins for President from Donald Duck, Superman, to Joey Buttafuoco....)