Kanye West 2020

[BaldEagle1991]

You'd think we'd see a repeat of a crazy controversial anti establishment campaign from the left if he ran?

[BaldEagle1991]

The funny part is that if he ran he'd no doubt be a front runner. Him actually making it to the nomination would be scary. 

[BaldEagle1991]

Kanye's base would no doubt be millenial Blacks.

Hispanics might be another good base as well.

He'd have a hard time trying to appeal to the unmarried older White women which helped Hillary in the 2016 primary.

[BaldEagle1991]

The funny part is that if he ran he'd no doubt be a front runner. Him actually making it to the nomination would be scary. 

What?

Oh yeah him taking a page of Trump's 2016 race of "telling it like it is" but to a liberal audience might work. It will be just as controversial and crazy but a different demographic will be outraged.

[BaldEagle1991]

We'd have reverse Donald Trump.

Though it would be interesting to see the angry white vote vs the black vote that Kanye would be just about guaranteed to have and who would come out on top (not that it's what I really want to see).

I can't imagine the debates would involve anything about policies, just a lot of "telling it like it is" and hurling insults at each other.

This is exactly how I predict it would be. 

However if Trump still acts like he did in the 2016 campaign as President, then he'd probably wouldn't even last more than I expected year into the term. Kanye West would be facing someone else.

[BaldEagle1991]

Kanye's base would no doubt be millenial Blacks.

Hispanics might be another good base as well.

He'd have a hard time trying to appeal to the unmarried older White women which helped Hillary in the 2016 primary.

True. Some of them think he's a little full of himself. I like his style--it depends. Will millennial white women like him, or are they still upset over his 2009 Taylor Swift remarks?

I think White millenial women would be split regarding him. The educated ones though, will be more of a harder target for him.

[BaldEagle1991]

That we're even seriously discussing a possible Trump v West election in 2020 is both appalling and horrifying.

What makes this even more horrifying would be that it's likely to happen.

[BaldEagle1991]

Taylor Swift is basically innocent of everything, except making songs that sound the same in the her first half of her career and then making more songs that sounds different but still all sound the same in the recent years.

[BaldEagle1991]

Everyone calm down:

1) If Trump has been unsuccessful, which I expect he will be, there will likely be a revulsion against celebrity candidates
2) Bernie or someone like him could easily portray Kanye as the puppet of the Establishment
3) How is he going to win IA and NH? I know the plan would be for him to win SC and run up the score with the Black Vote, but that would at best make him a spoiler, not the potential nominee. If Democratic primaries ran under Republican rules, there would be a much bigger threat he could do what Trump has done.

1. That's a possibility of that happening. However I think it might just be a revulsion against Trump, not celebrity candidates as a whole. Especially if the celebrity isn't a right-wing celebrity.
2. That will no doubt be a problem, however if Kanye West and Bernie Sanders (or someone like him) do agree on similarly on issues and have the same voter base then such an attack would become problematic.
3. He'll likely win the NH primary. That state is somewhat tailored to him. IA would no doubt be a challenge.

[BaldEagle1991]

Personally I'm pretty interested in seeing what a protest at a Kanye rally would be like.

[BaldEagle1991]

There will be never be a President-elect Kanye West. Whites vote 75%+ Republican if he's the nominee.

Assuming Donald Trump becomes a popular president. If he has such low approval ratings throughout then a President-elect Kanye West becomes possible.

[BaldEagle1991]

I think Kanye West's rhetoric would make Trump's sound nice.

[BaldEagle1991]

The debates....

"Imma' let you finish!"

I'm afraid that's going to happen.

[BaldEagle1991]

Lets be real here, he liked Trump only to run against him in 2020. If Hillary had won he'd have to wait 8 years or primary her (which was going to be impossible).

[BaldEagle1991]

Well he did have a concert meltdown last night with one part of it bashing Hillary Clinton for losing. Might be hard one to forget...

[BaldEagle1991]

Kanye, love him or hate him, could very well have the same effect in turning out millennial voters that Trump has/had with turning out rural voters, which would guarantee him 100+ EVs, which is far better than Mondale did.

Not to mention he'll also do better among Blacks and Hispanics than Hillary Clinton did.

[BaldEagle1991]

Assuming the very worst case scenario for democrats if West is nominated, they would still win California, New York, Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont and Hawaii, about 110 electoral votes.

Forgot Illinois

Kanye West grew up in Chicago. He still has some family there. Also part time residence in that city too.

[BaldEagle1991]

Kanye, love him or hate him, could very well have the same effect in turning out millennial voters that Trump has/had with turning out rural voters, which would guarantee him 100+ EVs, which is far better than Mondale did.

Not to mention he'll also do better among Blacks and Hispanics than Hillary Clinton did.

I'd be shocked if he did better among Hispanics.

He will, especially if the other choice is a President that deported half their community.

If Kanye gets the nomination, and is running against Trump, he won't get less than 43% of the vote, and could absolutely get more than that. Just like many people will vote Republican no matter what, many people will vote Democratic, no matter what, especially if the alternative is Trump.

 

True. I think the Dems nominating Kanye would be the best revenge against the Republicans for nominating a non politician who says crazy things and offends people.

[BaldEagle1991]

Also the Democratic primary rules are much different from the Republican ones. Which is why Trump isn't really a fitting precedent.

Trump won 100% of the delegates in South Carolina with less than 33% of the vote. He won a majority of the delegates in most Super Tuesday states despite not winning a majority in any.

That can't happen under the Democratic rules, and then throw in superdelegates.

It's possible that he'll win the pledged delegates by such a wide margin (say, West 35% Gillibrand 16% Klobuchar 14% Booker 13% S. Brown 12% K. Brown 5%) that superdelegates will hand the nomination to him out of fear of alienating his supporters. It's worth noting that the superdelegates haven't actually gone against the pledged delegate winner yet in their history.

And where's he going to get 35% of the vote from?

Actually in that scenario he'd still lose since trailing candidates would drop out and the anti-West vote would consolidate.

Warning: In the Spring of 2016, people thought that's how Trump would fall. It didn't happen.

[BaldEagle1991]

His most recent breakdown has most likely thwarted any chance if him being elected. But we all said that about Trump in 2015. Let's not count him out.

If he recovers then he'd no doubt be okay from this.