Will we have a recession during Trump's first term?
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  Will we have a recession during Trump's first term?
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#1
Yes, it will be as bad as the Great Recession
 
#2
Yes, it will be worse than the Great Recession
 
#3
Yes, but it won't be as bad as the Great Recession
 
#4
No, but the economy will be slightly worse off from Obama's 2nd term
 
#5
No, the economy will be stable
 
#6
No, the economy will be doing well
 
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Total Voters: 49

Author Topic: Will we have a recession during Trump's first term?  (Read 868 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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« on: November 11, 2016, 12:12:22 AM »

According to trends and theory, we should be approaching a recession in the next coming year(s), what do you think?
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2016, 12:14:57 AM »

Yes, we will, but how bad it will be remains to be seen.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2016, 12:24:33 AM »

Recessions are impossible to predict, and most are minor enough that the average citizen doesn't even know it happened
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snowguy716
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« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2016, 01:27:27 AM »

Recessions are impossible to predict, and most are minor enough that the average citizen doesn't even know it happened


If ever there was a tin eared comment...

The last several recessions:

2007-2009:  Great Recession:  People remember.

2001:  DotCom bust:  People remember.

1990/91:  People remember this one (It's the economy, stupid)

1981/82:  This was what people compared subsequent recessions to, you know, when they talked about them, because they remembered them, until the Great Recession.

1980:  Ask Jimmy Carter if that recession meant nothing and no one noticed!

1974/75:  You or I don't remember the WIN buttons but they didn't win Ford the election!  Stagflation!

Just do me a favor and never talk about things you know nothing about.  Kthx.
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Jeffster
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2016, 02:00:08 AM »

Yes, we'll be due for a recession before the 2020 election. I doubt it will be anywhere as bad as the Great Recession. Actually, having a Republican Congress and President might be a good thing compared to a Hillary Presidency and a Republican Congress. With a unified government they will be less likely to block extensions for unemployment insurance or food stamps. Imagine Hillary trying to get those things from a Republican House, it would have only made the recession worse.
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Beet
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« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2016, 12:56:47 PM »

Economic cycles have tended to get longer in recent decades. The Obama-started expansion will be the longest in American history unless there's some foreign policy crisis or external shock event.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2016, 01:15:20 PM »

I certainly hope so. There needs to be a huge lesson taught to states that voted for Trump.
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Confused Democrat
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« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2016, 01:24:05 PM »

I certainly hope so. There needs to be a huge lesson taught to states that voted for Trump.

Ew, don't wish for people to suffer because they didn't vote the way you wanted them to.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2016, 01:32:40 PM »

I certainly hope so. There needs to be a huge lesson taught to states that voted for Trump.

Ew, don't wish for people to suffer because they didn't vote the way you wanted them to.

Reaping what you sow is how the real world works. You get what you vote for.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2016, 01:34:07 PM »

I certainly hope so. There needs to be a huge lesson taught to states that voted for Trump.

Ew, don't wish for people to suffer because they didn't vote the way you wanted them to.

Reaping what you sow is how the real world works. You get what you vote for.
The real world doesn't work on your hope.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2016, 01:39:11 PM »

I certainly hope so. There needs to be a huge lesson taught to states that voted for Trump.

Ew, don't wish for people to suffer because they didn't vote the way you wanted them to.

Reaping what you sow is how the real world works. You get what you vote for.
The real world doesn't work on your hope.

With Trump as President no one should be discounting the prospect of a recession. My hope is that people reap what the sow.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2016, 01:39:45 PM »

I certainly hope so. There needs to be a huge lesson taught to states that voted for Trump.

What do you hope to Blacks who didn't vote/not good enough to make Clinton win? Police?



OnTopic. Of course no, lol.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2016, 01:41:25 PM »

Of course. Part of the reason Wall Street was funneling so much money to Clinton as opposed to both sides as because the banks are probably insolvent.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #13 on: November 12, 2016, 01:42:08 PM »

I certainly hope so. There needs to be a huge lesson taught to states that voted for Trump.

What do you hope to Blacks who didn't vote/not good enough to make Clinton win? Police?



OnTopic. Of course no, lol.

I hope the leader of Sweden doesn't do anything to anger Trump, because that could be disastrous. Trump is no one to be excited about.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #14 on: November 12, 2016, 01:44:49 PM »

I certainly hope so. There needs to be a huge lesson taught to states that voted for Trump.

Ew, don't wish for people to suffer because they didn't vote the way you wanted them to.

Reaping what you sow is how the real world works. You get what you vote for.
The real world doesn't work on your hope.

With Trump as President no one should be discounting the prospect of a recession. My hope is that people reap what the sow.
Well, in this case, I hope you experience every fear you imagine. If you want people to suffer, then let it be universal.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #15 on: November 12, 2016, 01:49:12 PM »

I certainly hope so. There needs to be a huge lesson taught to states that voted for Trump.

Ew, don't wish for people to suffer because they didn't vote the way you wanted them to.

Reaping what you sow is how the real world works. You get what you vote for.
The real world doesn't work on your hope.

With Trump as President no one should be discounting the prospect of a recession. My hope is that people reap what the sow.
Well, in this case, I hope you experience every fear you imagine. If you want people to suffer, then let it be universal.

Trump has already walked back his promise for a wall, so his supporters are already suffering. Too bad for them.
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Confused Democrat
reidmill
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« Reply #16 on: November 12, 2016, 01:51:13 PM »

I certainly hope so. There needs to be a huge lesson taught to states that voted for Trump.

Ew, don't wish for people to suffer because they didn't vote the way you wanted them to.

Reaping what you sow is how the real world works. You get what you vote for.
The real world doesn't work on your hope.

With Trump as President no one should be discounting the prospect of a recession. My hope is that people reap what the sow.

What about the children?

They didn't have a say in this election. Screw them, right?

No one is discounting the prospect of a recession. We're just not actively rooting for one in order to stoke our own egos like you are.

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Virginiá
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« Reply #17 on: November 12, 2016, 01:53:11 PM »

For anyone doubting this, I direct you to this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

Based on history, even post-WW2, we are due for one any day now.

As Beet said, cycles have gotten longer recently but it still seems extremely likely we get one before 2020's elections. I'd even say that it's very possible before 2018's midterm, even if just slightly. I think the better question is how bad will it be? Have persistently low interest rates given us too little to fight back with?

I think it goes without saying that I hope we don't get a recession, but my hopes don't trump reality. That being said, Republicans ought to take stock of this before gloating too much. You guys are going to be blamed for this one too (as is standard for whichever party controls the White House), and thus continuing a trend of Republicans presiding over every recession we've had since the late 1960s.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #18 on: November 12, 2016, 01:55:24 PM »

For anyone doubting this, I direct you to this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

Based on history, even post-WW2, we are due for one any day now.

As Beet said, cycles have gotten longer recently but it still seems extremely likely we get one before 2020's elections. I'd even say that it's very possible before 2018's midterm, even if just slightly. I think the better question is how bad will it be? Have persistently low interest rates given us too little to fight back with?

I think it goes without saying that I hope we don't get a recession, but my hopes don't trump reality. That being said, Republicans ought to take stock of this before gloating too much. You guys are going to be blamed for this one too (as is standard for whichever party controls the White House), and thus continuing a trend of Republicans presiding over every recession we've had since the late 1960s.
The general historical narrative accepted by Republicans, Democrats, the media, and historians is that the Bush administration was still receiving blame for the economic crisis well into Obama's presidency. So long as Trump doesn't actively make it worse, he should be most unscathed.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #19 on: November 12, 2016, 02:00:20 PM »

The general historical narrative accepted by Republicans, Democrats, the media, and historians is that the Bush administration was still receiving blame for the economic crisis well into Obama's presidency. So long as Trump doesn't actively make it worse, he should be most unscathed.

2007's was trickier in this I guess. Obama took office near the end of the recession, but most of it took place under Bush, though I think Obama took office at its peak, right?

Either way, if I understand what you're getting at, you're saying Obama will receive blame? That won't happen if it starts after he leaves office. Part of the media narrative could involve Obama if it begins in Jan/Feb, but later than that it's more likely Trump eats it all, especially in the minds of voters. Worse yet if Trump's win was somehow the catalyst for it.
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Hammy
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« Reply #20 on: November 12, 2016, 02:49:20 PM »

Yes, in that we're probably 'due' for one, given the economy goes in cycles. Would've happened regardless of who was elected.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #21 on: November 12, 2016, 04:59:30 PM »
« Edited: November 12, 2016, 05:33:52 PM by Meclazine »

Depends on how you define a recession.

Some pundits use two periods of negative growth of GDP in succession.

Others use significant negative growth.

Trump is an isolationalist with business experience. So he is going to renegotiate trade with, amongst others, Australia, Canada, Germany, Mexico, Japan, South Korea and most importantly, China.

Then he will talk to US companies in an attempt to get them back manufacturing their wares in the USA.

Government will provide stimulus in the USA with new transport infrastructure, walls, prisons based on policy.

From an economists perspective, it is impossible to predict the outcomes of these actual discussions leading to fiscal decisions, let alone the down-stream economic impacts which flow from them.

If you forced one to make a call, one might say that the immediate lowering of the corporate tax rates and the removal of over-regulation in the resources sector will result in an economic stimulus.






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20RP12
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« Reply #22 on: November 12, 2016, 05:01:40 PM »

Somewhere between options 3 and 4.
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