Will we have a recession during Trump's first term?

[Virginiá]

For anyone doubting this, I direct you to this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

Based on history, even post-WW2, we are due for one any day now.

As Beet said, cycles have gotten longer recently but it still seems extremely likely we get one before 2020's elections. I'd even say that it's very possible before 2018's midterm, even if just slightly. I think the better question is how bad will it be? Have persistently low interest rates given us too little to fight back with?

I think it goes without saying that I hope we don't get a recession, but my hopes don't trump reality. That being said, Republicans ought to take stock of this before gloating too much. You guys are going to be blamed for this one too (as is standard for whichever party controls the White House), and thus continuing a trend of Republicans presiding over every recession we've had since the late 1960s.

[Virginiá]

The general historical narrative accepted by Republicans, Democrats, the media, and historians is that the Bush administration was still receiving blame for the economic crisis well into Obama's presidency. So long as Trump doesn't actively make it worse, he should be most unscathed.

2007's was trickier in this I guess. Obama took office near the end of the recession, but most of it took place under Bush, though I think Obama took office at its peak, right?

Either way, if I understand what you're getting at, you're saying Obama will receive blame? That won't happen if it starts after he leaves office. Part of the media narrative could involve Obama if it begins in Jan/Feb, but later than that it's more likely Trump eats it all, especially in the minds of voters. Worse yet if Trump's win was somehow the catalyst for it.