Will we have a recession during Trump's first term?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Depends on how you define a recession.

Some pundits use two periods of negative growth of GDP in succession.

Others use significant negative growth.

Trump is an isolationalist with business experience. So he is going to renegotiate trade with, amongst others, Australia, Canada, Germany, Mexico, Japan, South Korea and most importantly, China.

Then he will talk to US companies in an attempt to get them back manufacturing their wares in the USA.

Government will provide stimulus in the USA with new transport infrastructure, walls, prisons based on policy.

From an economists perspective, it is impossible to predict the outcomes of these actual discussions leading to fiscal decisions, let alone the down-stream economic impacts which flow from them.

If you forced one to make a call, one might say that the immediate lowering of the corporate tax rates and the removal of over-regulation in the resources sector will result in an economic stimulus.