Since we don't have the full, certified results and final tallies from most states yet, especially from vote rich states in the west like Washington, Utah, California, Alaska, Arizona and more, I will not do a direct trendline analysis yet, since there might still be some 20-30% more votes coming in from California alone, for instance. However, I think enough votes have already come in so that the final results will not ultimately change terribly much. Thus I would like to take a look at the changes in rankings among states between 2000 (a very close election with a terribly polarized electorate) and 2016 (a just as close election with potentially an even more polarized electorate). So here are the changes in rankings going from most Democratic to most Republican between 2000 and 2016 as of November 11th:
Rhode Island: 1st -> 9th
Massachusetts: 2nd -> 3rd
New York: 3rd -> 6th
Hawaii: 4th -> 1st
Connecticut: 5th -> 11th
Maryland: 6th -> 5th
New Jersey: 7th -> 10th
Delaware: 8th -> 12th
Illinois: 9th -> 8th
California: 10th -> 2nd
Vermont: 11th -> 4th
Washington: 12th -> 7th
Michigan: 13th -> 21st
Maine: 14th -> 17th
Pennsylvania: 15th -> 23rd
Minnesota: 16th -> 19th
Oregon: 17th -> 13th
Iowa: 18th -> 30th
Wisconsin: 19th -> 22nd
New Mexico: 20th -> 14th
Florida: 21st -> 24th
New Hampshire: 22nd -> 20th
Missouri: 23rd -> 36th
Ohio: 24th -> 28th
Nevada: 25th -> 18th
Tennessee: 26th -> 40th
Arkansas: 27th -> 42nd
Arizona: 28th -> 26th
West Virginia: 29th -> 49th
Louisiana: 30th -> 37th
Virginia: 31st -> 15th
Colorado: 32nd -> 16th
Georgia: 33rd -> 27th
North Carolina: 34th -> 25th
Alabama: 35th -> 43rd
Kentucky: 36th -> 44th
Indiana: 37th -> 35th
South Carolina: 38th -> 31st
Mississippi: 39th -> 33rd
Kansas: 40th -> 39th
Texas: 41st -> 29th
Oklahoma: 42nd -> 48th
South Dakota: 43rd -> 45th
Montana: 44th -> 38th
North Dakota: 45th -> 47th
Nebraska: 46th -> 41st
Alaska: 47th -> 32nd
Idaho: 48th -> 46th
Wyoming: 49th -> 50th
Utah: 50th -> 34th
Here are the changes in absolute ranking sorted from most Democratic changes to most Republican:
Colorado: +16 places more Democratic
Virginia: +16
Utah: +16
Alaska: +15
Texas: +12
North Carolina: +9
California: +8
Vermont: +7
Nevada: +7
South Carolina: +7
New Mexico: +6
Georgia: +6
Mississippi: +6
Montana: +6
Washington: +5
Nebraska: +5
Oregon: +4
Hawaii: +3
New Hampshire: +2
Arizona: +2
Indiana: +2
Idaho: +2
Maryland: +1
Illinois: +1
Kansas: +1
Massachusetts: -1
Wyoming: -1
South Dakota: -2
North Dakota: -2
New York: -3
New Jersey: -3
Maine: -3
Minnesota: -3
Wisconsin: -3
Florida: -3
Delaware: -4
Ohio: -4
Connecticut: -6
Oklahoma: -6
Louisiana: -7
Rhode Island: -8
Michigan: -8
Pennsylvania: -8
Alabama: -8
Kentucky: -8
Iowa: -12
Missouri: -13
Tennessee: -14
Arkansas: -15
West Virginia: -20 places less Democratic
Here's a trendline map in order to illustrate the vast state by state changes over the past 16 years:
In order to understand the map's colouring:
30% change: 1-3 places difference
40% change: 4-6
50% change: 7-9
60% change: 10-12
70% change: 13-15
80% change: 16-18
90% change: 19 and above
PS: I used Wikipedia for the 2000 results as well as this document as my source for the preliminary 2016 results:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/htmlview?sle=trueTo sum it up, the big state of Texas is one of the 10 states that has changed electorally the most over the past 16 years, though West Virginia has trended by far the most among all states, unsurprisingly. Take note though of the fact that slightly more than half of all states have barely changed at all, moving up or down the ranking by 3 places or less. Realignments are clearly a tedious, slow-pacing movement.
In actual percentage points, both Utah (+21.5%) and Alaska (+16%) have actually trended more than both Virginia (+13%) and Colorado (+12%, same as Texas). West Virginia is once again the more extreme case, having become 36% more Republican since 2000. But these numbers are for another day when everything is ready to digest.
