At what point in the day do you think Hillary's team knew things were rough?
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  At what point in the day do you think Hillary's team knew things were rough?
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Author Topic: At what point in the day do you think Hillary's team knew things were rough?  (Read 2351 times)
HagridOfTheDeep
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« on: November 11, 2016, 05:55:19 AM »

Just curious, since presumably their intense data operation would have been spitting out unfavourable metrics in real time.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2016, 05:59:45 AM »

Given the absolute closeness of the election result, I believe she was still a chance before Wisconsin got called.

When she needed to flip Arizona and keep MI NH and PV alive to get to 270, that was the final blow.
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AuH2O Republican
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2016, 06:20:47 AM »

When she sent this out on Twitter:

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Umengus
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« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2016, 06:44:30 AM »

Just curious, since presumably their intense data operation would have been spitting out unfavourable metrics in real time.

trump come back in FL and the big  margin in OH
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2016, 07:39:01 AM »

So you think they didn't realize until the ballots actually started to be counted?

I would've thought there'd be signs earlier.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2016, 08:15:14 AM »

I really believe they were shocked when Hillary conceded. 

They were more shocked than Mitt Romney in 2012.  Mitt had advance notice that it would be tough and all depended on Ohio, Florida, and Colorado.  He knew that despite polls showing him with a slim popular vote lead, the structure of the election gave Obama inherent advantages.

Hillary, undoubtedly, thought those advantages were Democratic Party advantages, and that they were all still in place.  She had no idea how hated she was amongst white working class voters, even in counties in PA, MI, and WI that had gone for Obama in 2012.  She sped up the realignment amongst this demographic, and it begs the question why.  Whether or not the Democrats can be honest with themselves about that will determine whether or not the Democratic Party can restore itself as the party that best advanced the needs of working class Americans, or whether they have become something almost unrecognizable to these folks.
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ShamDam
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« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2016, 08:27:24 AM »

I was at Javits Center. The mood first started to get tense when no swing states, including gimmes like Minnesota and Virginia, were being called, and seeing Trump ahead in so many of the early vote returns. Personally, I didn't start getting very concerned until Florida was called, because that was the first state of the night that didn't get called for who I thought it would get called for. Knowing that Michigan and Pennsylvania both remained toss-ups for so long was a heavy weight the whole night. But it wasn't over until Fox News called Wisconsin for Trump.  Interestingly, only 4 states didn't go the way I expected -- the three rust belt shockers and Florida. I had reassured myself that Clinton would win because I was confident in Nevada and New Hampshire, and I thought Trump needed both. But nah.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2016, 09:17:46 AM »

Just curious, since presumably their intense data operation would have been spitting out unfavourable metrics in real time.

I suspect they knew they were in trouble from internal polling soon after Comey intervened in the race. They couldn't know if they were going to pull it out or not until the returns started coming in.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2016, 09:24:45 AM »

So you think they didn't realize until the ballots actually started to be counted?

I would've thought there'd be signs earlier.

Hillary sent Obama to Detroit days before the election. She knew she was in trouble there.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2016, 10:46:13 AM »

I would say sometime in the early afternoon.

They must have had internal polling showing their precarious position by that point.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
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« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2016, 11:14:34 AM »

I think she knew that Michigan and Pennsylvania were close in the final few days, but still thought she would probably pull it out
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Seriously?
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« Reply #11 on: November 11, 2016, 11:18:38 AM »

She knew. She wasn't campaigning in Michigan and Pennsylvania at the end because she felt like it.
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Hermit For Peace
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« Reply #12 on: November 11, 2016, 02:32:42 PM »


When Comey sent his first letter to Congress. Boom! Done for.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2016, 03:21:51 PM »

I'm not criticizing any posters here; they may well be right.  But I really think that no one saw this coming, not until PA appeared to be going for Trump.

This election was a shocker on the order of Harry Truman upsetting Dewey in 1948.  No one saw that coming, either.

I didn't believe Trump would do it until he did it.  The bottom line for me is that the realignment going on in the Rust Belt amongst white working class voters was further along than anyone suspected.  Except, possibly, Donald Trump.  No matter what anyone thinks of him, Donald Trump knows SOMETHING about this process that no one else does.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #14 on: November 11, 2016, 04:04:51 PM »

Personally I started sh**tting my pants when I saw the early Virginia returns.  I imagine they knew at least by then or more likely before.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #15 on: November 11, 2016, 04:44:08 PM »

That night there were three big alarms that all came in quick succession (between 8:30 pm and 9 pm, IIRC):

1. The Florida vote dump that suddenly put Trump ahead statewide, and ahead in Obama counties (specifically Pinellas)
2. Clinton's very bad, no good numbers in Virginia
3. Pennsylvania being very close even after a lot of Democratic areas had come in.

When Michigan returns started rolling in, I think they knew they were probably screwed.

But I have a feeling they had internal numbers and early voting data beforehand that scared them.  I mentioned in a thread on here back on Monday that I was very nervous about PA for a number of reasons.  I guarantee you they were as well.
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indysaff
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« Reply #16 on: November 11, 2016, 04:51:38 PM »

Whenever they decided to have that Giant rally in Philly a day before the election.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #17 on: November 11, 2016, 05:25:36 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2016, 05:27:35 PM by eric82oslo »

So you think they didn't realize until the ballots actually started to be counted?

I would've thought there'd be signs earlier.

If all the public polls were wrong and the exit polls were even more wrong, then why would their internal polling be any better? If anything, it was the high-quality, traditional phone polls who also called cell phones and had staff speaking Spanish that got it the most spectacularily wrong. I guess the internet pollsters were the most accurate in this particular election, at least some of them. I saw that ironic as it is (and to an extreme degree it is), Rasmussen had one of the most accurate, if not the most accurate, final poll of all pollsters.
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jaichind
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« Reply #18 on: November 11, 2016, 05:28:17 PM »

I think in first signs must have started in the afternoon when turnout figures in various FL counties (like Duval which updates their data realtime) clearly was trending Trump.  Then when exit polls came out it initially it must have gotten their hopes up.  On paper the exit polls were positive for Clinton (Clinton approval at 44% and Trump approval at 37%) but then results by ethnic breakdown was problematic which was

GOP margin
White College Women: 2012: +6, 2016: -8
White Non-College Women: 2012: +20, 2016: +25
White College Men: 2012: +21, 2016: +11
White Non-College Men: 2012: +31, 2016: +47
Black voters: 2012 -87, 2016 -81
Latinos: 2012 -44, 2016 -41

Note that the real margins were later adjusted to be even more pro-Trump but even these numbers show that Trump is gaining relative to 2012 margins for Blacks and Latinos and mostly even for Whites which puts Trump about 3% behind Clinton so there is no blowout.  

Then results came in for IN.  Trump is overperforming Romney by significant margins.  They must have said, well that is because of Pence.  Then the same pattern for KY.  So it confirms there is clearly no Clinton blowout.

When FL then started to come it it was clear that the pattern of reporting results where the early votes should come in very strong for Clinton was not as strong as 2012 must have them worried that at best it is a tiny victory in FL.  And if FL is lost then so must be NC while IN KY results seems to confirm that OH and IA must be gone too.  So it must have dawned on them that then they must win PA and MI which was an unconformable place to be.  

Then as FL goes from bad to worse, OH looking like a blowout, MI comes in with some very bad starting numbers must have make them realize that they might have and perhaps likely have lost.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #19 on: November 11, 2016, 05:30:49 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2016, 05:35:29 PM by eric82oslo »

I'm not criticizing any posters here; they may well be right.  But I really think that no one saw this coming, not until PA appeared to be going for Trump.

This election was a shocker on the order of Harry Truman upsetting Dewey in 1948.  No one saw that coming, either.

I didn't believe Trump would do it until he did it.  The bottom line for me is that the realignment going on in the Rust Belt amongst white working class voters was further along than anyone suspected.  Except, possibly, Donald Trump.  No matter what anyone thinks of him, Donald Trump knows SOMETHING about this process that no one else does.

Even he didn't expect to win. Or else he wouldn't have already been 95% finished with basically all of his fundamental plans for setting up an enormous media empire shortly after the election had ended. If anything, Trump was perhaps the one person most surprised with the results of all people you could think of from the top of your head.

Now all the pussygrabbers of the world - from the Phillipines to Syria to Nigeria and beyond - can unite and form an enormous brotherhood. Newt Gingrich has already nominated Trump for next year's Nobel Peace Prize for putting on the global agenda the basic rights of men's rights activists, rapists, pedophiles, homophobes and racists across the globe, from sea to shining sea. Now the only question remaining is whether he will beat out the Pope for the prize in the end.
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Blair
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« Reply #20 on: November 11, 2016, 05:32:12 PM »

  Whether or not the Democrats can be honest with themselves about that will determine whether or not the Democratic Party can restore itself as the party that best advanced the needs of working class Americans, or whether they have become something almost unrecognizable to these folks.

People earning less than 30K still voted more so for Clinton. Likewise Clinton did very well with working class folk of colour- the issue is white working class voters.

Seeing Indiana called very early in the Senate race made me wonder just how well Trump may have done in turning out rural voters
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #21 on: November 11, 2016, 05:58:48 PM »

They knew after the florida trends for sure.

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« Reply #22 on: November 11, 2016, 06:05:25 PM »

When Podesta sent everyone at the rally home with no word from Hillary. I was surprised and laughed and I knew it was done. 

I was watching RT coverage on youtube(and I still insist RT is very good at covering less-popular angles - hell they had Jesse Ventura AND Larry King on!):

https://youtu.be/Ac1OMkYVL6Y?t=36056

It starts about right there and watch former MSNBCer Ed Schultz rip into her non-appearance!
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rob in cal
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« Reply #23 on: November 11, 2016, 06:09:36 PM »

  When the Broward early and mail vote count dump hit Florida and her lead wasn't that great, with big amounts of the rest of the state still to come in. I remember seeing one talking head say "we still have lots of Broward still to come" and I remember thinking this guy needs to be on Atlas forum more and he'd know that there wasn't that much left.  Perhaps then the Clinton team started to worry.
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SirMuxALot
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« Reply #24 on: November 11, 2016, 06:44:31 PM »

Personally I started sh**tting my pants when I saw the early Virginia returns.  I imagine they knew at least by then or more likely before.

Don't know how many elections you've watched closely.  But eventually you'll watch enough of them to know exactly how Virginia counts....and you won't be fooled by VA early returns again.  There's no other state like it out there.  The Republican areas always report early and the Dem areas always report late.

No other state has such a strong and consistent tendency to give misleading early counting results.
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