Early Predictions: How many of the 10 red-state Democratic Senators survive 2018
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  Early Predictions: How many of the 10 red-state Democratic Senators survive 2018
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Author Topic: Early Predictions: How many of the 10 red-state Democratic Senators survive 2018  (Read 3059 times)
Maxwell
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« Reply #25 on: November 11, 2016, 09:12:45 PM »

It's quite possible that all of them survive, but I'd say a good early prediction is Manchin, Donnelly, and McCaskill lose, and the rest survive. Meanwhile the Democrats beat Heller and Flake.

Of the Clinton state Democrats, Menendez might also be vulnerable. I suppose King could theoretically be vulnerable to IRV oddities, but it's very unlikely since I suspect he'll get majority support. Klobuchar's seat is staying Democratic even if she retires (which she won't).

My guess is that Democrats probably won't even see Flake in the general election. The administration is not going to let Flake live.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #26 on: November 12, 2016, 12:40:53 AM »

I am drafting a letter to McCaskill and Kander Maxwell.

Basically asking McCaskill to drop out, so Kander can have a shot. I think he would be better opportunity to hold the seat.

Also, Claire would be a better governor than Senator for such a red state.
Robin/Russ Carnahan has a much better chance, IMO.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #27 on: November 12, 2016, 01:47:41 AM »

I am drafting a letter to McCaskill and Kander Maxwell.

Basically asking McCaskill to drop out, so Kander can have a shot. I think he would be better opportunity to hold the seat.

Also, Claire would be a better governor than Senator for such a red state.
Robin/Russ Carnahan has a much better chance, IMO.

No we are done with the Carnahan's.

And before people count out Claire entirely consider the early convention wisdom of these races..

2002 The Carnahan name is too strong and midterms favor party out of power.

2004 Bond could be vulnerable, he will be in a close race. He has never won more then 53%!

2006 Talent is uncontroversial and McCaskill is too liberal for increasingly red Missouri

2010 Yes! Robin Carnahan will make Missouri the next state with two female Democratic Senators.

2012 McCaskill is DOA.. state has trended to far right.

2016 "eh" Kander probably can't make it a race against Roy Blunt (in the end he only  lost due to Trumps MASSIVE margin in MO)
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #28 on: November 12, 2016, 04:59:02 AM »

Safest to Least Safe:

Stabenow
Nelson
Tester
Manchin
Casey
Baldwin
Brown
McCaskill
Heitkamp
Donnelly

I'd argue Tim Kaine and Angus King, while favored, are possibly more at risk than Stabenow.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #29 on: November 12, 2016, 01:33:33 PM »

Since we are looking at a Trump midterm instead of a Clinton midterm, Democratic congressional candidates are in much better shape than otherwise.

Sherrod Brown
Tester
Nelson
Manchin
Heikamp
should win

McCaskill chances have always been uphill
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #30 on: November 12, 2016, 04:43:26 PM »

8, McCaskill and Donnelly still go down. 

MO just voted to the right of Mississippi.
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Figueira
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« Reply #31 on: November 12, 2016, 05:32:16 PM »

I keep forgetting about Tim Kaine. I think it's pretty clear that either (a) Virginia is now a very Democratic state or (b) Kaine is a popular Senator who propelled Clinton to victory in Virginia or (c) Trump is a bad fit for Virginia. Either way, Kaine has very little to worry about.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #32 on: November 12, 2016, 05:42:47 PM »

I keep forgetting about Tim Kaine. I think it's pretty clear that either (a) Virginia is now a very Democratic state or (b) Kaine is a popular Senator who propelled Clinton to victory in Virginia or (c) Trump is a bad fit for Virginia. Either way, Kaine has very little to worry about.

The first one.

Running mates don't "propel" candidates to victory anywhere.

Trump was an exceptionally bad candidate for Virginia, but it has also gotten to a point where Generic R is no longer electable statewide in VA. The Republicans have to run a really exceptional candidate in order to win there.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #33 on: November 12, 2016, 06:09:42 PM »

This board has gottent terrible the past few days.

Only thing that can be predicted with confindence is that Democrats will win one of the next several elections.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #34 on: November 12, 2016, 06:11:59 PM »
« Edited: November 12, 2016, 06:15:26 PM by TN Volunteer »

8, McCaskill and Donnelly still go down.  

MO just voted to the right of Mississippi.

And McCaskill votes like a Senator who is representing Maryland, not Missouri. She's basically just an edgy SJW Senator, did you see her on MSNBC on election night? She was 100% convinced that Kander and Koster were going to win decisively, lol.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #35 on: November 12, 2016, 06:18:07 PM »

8, McCaskill and Donnelly still go down.  

MO just voted to the right of Mississippi.

And McCaskill votes like a Senator who is representing Maryland, not Missouri. She's basically just an edgy SJW Senator, did you see her on MSNBC on election night? She was 100% convinced that Kander and Koster were going to win decisively, lol.

Her voting record is in the middle actually. Look it up.

That being said, I would like to see her replaced with either Kander or Koster.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #36 on: November 13, 2016, 10:05:44 AM »

8, McCaskill and Donnelly still go down.  

MO just voted to the right of Mississippi.

And McCaskill votes like a Senator who is representing Maryland, not Missouri. She's basically just an edgy SJW Senator, did you see her on MSNBC on election night? She was 100% convinced that Kander and Koster were going to win decisively, lol.

Her voting record is in the middle actually. Look it up.

That being said, I would like to see her replaced with either Kander or Koster.
Maybe she's not a fire breather in the Senate, and maybe she works a cross the aisle on bills that are not hot bottom, but what are some major issues where she breaks from the Democrats and sides with Republicans? None, that's what matters.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #37 on: November 13, 2016, 10:13:46 AM »

8, McCaskill and Donnelly still go down.  

MO just voted to the right of Mississippi.

And McCaskill votes like a Senator who is representing Maryland, not Missouri. She's basically just an edgy SJW Senator, did you see her on MSNBC on election night? She was 100% convinced that Kander and Koster were going to win decisively, lol.

Her voting record is in the middle actually. Look it up.

That being said, I would like to see her replaced with either Kander or Koster.
Maybe she's not a fire breather in the Senate, and maybe she works a cross the aisle on bills that are not hot bottom, but what are some major issues where she breaks from the Democrats and sides with Republicans? None, that's what matters.

TN Volunteer,

I think she has evolved in her career from being a generic liberal into a deal breaker. I disagreed with her vote on ObamaCare in 2009, but I don't care now.

Hatred of her is irrational in my opinion.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #38 on: November 13, 2016, 10:35:38 AM »

Stabenow and Casey will be fine, Heitkamp might be a challenge but I think she'll survive, Baldwin should be okay, and beyond that, we'll have to see.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #39 on: November 13, 2016, 11:55:41 AM »

It depends on Trump's approval ratings and whether or not Democrats can form an effective opposition message against his administration (so basically what jfern said). I am pretty confident that they can and will. However, I don't expect all these people to hold their seats, but like Sanchez said, it could be offset by limited GOP losses elsewhere. I can't really speculate as to who specifically will win and lose - impossible to know right now.

But I will say this: If Trump goes into 2018 with approval ratings similar to his favorables now, Republicans are in big trouble. Odds are, Democrats will have the last laugh as Republicans inherit the fabled Obama midterm curse.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #40 on: November 13, 2016, 12:02:14 PM »

8, McCaskill and Donnelly still go down. 

MO just voted to the right of Mississippi.

And Kander still only barely lost against a long time incumbent.
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Cynthia
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« Reply #41 on: November 14, 2016, 03:04:30 AM »

All of them will.
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Lachi
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« Reply #42 on: November 14, 2016, 05:01:17 AM »

At least 6, maybe 7-8, but depending on what happens over the next year, the Democrats might gain Arizona and Nevada to cut their losses.
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Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself
omegascarlet
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« Reply #43 on: November 14, 2016, 09:16:28 PM »

If Trump is unpopular and the Democrats have a good message (no DWS idiocy), 8 or 9 survive, and the Senate election is basically a wash.

You still care about her? Move on. She's irrelevant. Bernie lost by 20 points. No amount of "not rigging" (whatever that means) was going to save him from being clobbered among minorities. It was his incompetence on racial issues that did him in.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #44 on: November 14, 2016, 11:03:19 PM »


lol
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #45 on: November 14, 2016, 11:25:23 PM »

Its quite apparent that the senators that were in the most danger now have a lot more breathing room, and Flake and Heller are potentially more vulnerable due to being tied to a possible unpopular administration. I dont think the dems gain any seats(McCaskill and Donnelly are going to be hard to save) but it'll probably end up being a wash.
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Klartext89
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« Reply #46 on: November 15, 2016, 05:09:06 AM »
« Edited: November 15, 2016, 05:11:27 AM by Klartext89 »

Hopefully no one, but I think it looks like that:

1. Joe Manchin (WV): He will work with the GOP majority and President Trump on the most issues. If he's running again, I'll give him a 70% chance of being reelected as an "Independent voice in the Senate". But a strong challenger and it could shift very easily into a real fight. The seat will go Republican if he retires, what I also wouldn't rule out.

2. Heidi Heitkamp (ND): She needs to be a major target, the 2012 shock with that Rick Berg low-energy loser was pretty bad. She'll run again, GOP has a good and deep bench in ND. I assume it as a possible, but not totally easy pickup.

3. Jon Tester (MT): He'll cheat again with a Fake-Libertarian who in fact is a hidden Democrat to take votes away from the GOP. But in a midterm and without Obama turnout, this won't be enough. One of the easiest pickups.

4. Joe Donnelly (IN): He'll be toast - unless Richard Mourdock is running on the GOP side.

5. Claire McCaskill (MO): Only question is the margin of defeat - unless Todd Akin is the Republican nominee.
 
6. Sherrod Brown (OH): 50:50 at the moment. He could very well be reelected with a slim margin against a average Republican candidate. If John Kasich is running, Brown will win Cuyahoga County - but nothing more.

7. Bill Nelson (FL): Hopefully he retires, otherwise my bet is on him.

8. Bob Casey (PA): I don't even consider it a target. Easy going. So hopefully he gets a milion dollar Job offer and retires...

9. Tammy Baldwin (WI): Do it Scott Walker! Otherwise it will be close.

10. Debbie Stabenow (MI): Don't see a path.


----

On the GOP side, I hate Flake for his shameful behaviour towards Trump, but I hope he works with him well and survives the backlash in the Primary like McCain did. Then the seat will be likely Republican.

Dean Heller managed to survive Obama 2012. I would be shocked if he loses in a midterm.

So, my advide for the GOP is to run decent candidates and the Senate will be as Republican as before the New Deal.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #47 on: November 15, 2016, 08:57:57 AM »

anywhere from 2 to all 10. depends above all on how much voter suppression gets forced through over the next few years
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Klartext89
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« Reply #48 on: November 15, 2016, 09:08:37 AM »

anywhere from 2 to all 10. depends above all on how much voter suppression gets forced through over the next few years

Yeah, would be really bad if there would be rules like in our country which really prohibit illegals from voting and will make voter fraud (Hello Chicago, Hello Philadelphia) more complicated.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #49 on: November 15, 2016, 09:31:26 AM »

anywhere from 2 to all 10. depends above all on how much voter suppression gets forced through over the next few years

Yeah, would be really bad if there would be rules like in our country which really prohibit illegals from voting and will make voter fraud (Hello Chicago, Hello Philadelphia) more complicated.
don't you have an n.p.d. rally to be attending
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