So the fundamentals:
Tammy Baldwin (WI): See OH and PA. Might be a bit harder for her as queer woman in a midterm, but also Wisconsin has better D turnout in midterms sooooo LEANS D
What? You mean Wisconsin has better Republican turnout in midterms so leans R?
Better D turnout than OH and PA is what I was referring. Also, citing 2 midterms out of the hundreds we've had doesn't necessarily signify an absolute. If anything, it's not that the GOP turns out better in midterms, is that the party that is out of power does. 2002 is a glaring contradiction to that, but it was also only 1 year after 9/11