Early Predictions: How many of the 10 red-state Democratic Senators survive 2018

[Chief Justice Keef]

Manchin, Tester, Brown, Nelson, Casey, Baldwin and Stabenow are reelected. Brown in Ohio will probably be the closest race out of those seven, but I think the possibility of a 2020 presidential run might boost enthusiasm.

I think Donnelly (IN) and McCaskill (MO) are the real tossup races, while I'd probably put Heitkamp (ND) under Lean R.

[windjammer]

I guess it is because I'm a well-known optimist but I believe all of them are likely to be reelected.
If Kelly Ayotte managed to win the open seat in NH by more than 20 points, well, any democrats can survive in a democratic wave.

[Klartext89]

anywhere from 2 to all 10. depends above all on how much voter suppression gets forced through over the next few years

Yeah, would be really bad if there would be rules like in our country which really prohibit illegals from voting and will make voter fraud (Hello Chicago, Hello Philadelphia) more complicated.

don't you have an n.p.d. rally to be attending

As usual: The Leftist hasn't any arguments left and needs to insult his opponent. The tolerant Left strikes again.

But to answer your question: I have to work. That's what sane, decent people do to give you H.a.r.t.z.

[Cynthia]

Hopefully no one, but I think it looks like that:

1. Joe Manchin (WV): He will work with the GOP majority and President Trump on the most issues. If he's running again, I'll give him a 70% chance of being reelected as an "Independent voice in the Senate". But a strong challenger and it could shift very easily into a real fight. The seat will go Republican if he retires, what I also wouldn't rule out.

2. Heidi Heitkamp (ND): She needs to be a major target, the 2012 shock with that Rick Berg low-energy loser was pretty bad. She'll run again, GOP has a good and deep bench in ND. I assume it as a possible, but not totally easy pickup.

3. Jon Tester (MT): He'll cheat again with a Fake-Libertarian who in fact is a hidden Democrat to take votes away from the GOP. But in a midterm and without Obama turnout, this won't be enough. One of the easiest pickups.

4. Joe Donnelly (IN): He'll be toast - unless Richard Mourdock is running on the GOP side.

5. Claire McCaskill (MO): Only question is the margin of defeat - unless Todd Akin is the Republican nominee.
 
6. Sherrod Brown (OH): 50:50 at the moment. He could very well be reelected with a slim margin against a average Republican candidate. If John Kasich is running, Brown will win Cuyahoga County - but nothing more.

7. Bill Nelson (FL): Hopefully he retires, otherwise my bet is on him.

8. Bob Casey (PA): I don't even consider it a target. Easy going. So hopefully he gets a milion dollar Job offer and retires...

9. Tammy Baldwin (WI): Do it Scott Walker! Otherwise it will be close.

10. Debbie Stabenow (MI): Don't see a path.


----

On the GOP side, I hate Flake for his shameful behaviour towards Trump, but I hope he works with him well and survives the backlash in the Primary like McCain did. Then the seat will be likely Republican.

Dean Heller managed to survive Obama 2012. I would be shocked if he loses in a midterm.

So, my advide for the GOP is to run decent candidates and the Senate will be as Republican as before the New Deal.

You realize Clinton didn't win last week right?

[jamestroll]

All I will say is that midwestern states are prone to wild swings, so I would not count out any Midwestern Democrat in 2018.

I realize the Midwest swung heavily to Trump. Yea, I understand why, he was the first Presidential candidate in decades to address issues that concern midwesterners. However, when those manufacturing jobs do not return, and we are in a recession, I assume the midwest will swing back to the Democrats.

[AmericanNation]

I think Baldwin is in serious trouble.  I'm shocked people think she has a chance.  The last democrat to win anything during a midterm in this state was 2006!  I'm guessing a large number of republicans are going to look at running because they know how "easy" a pick up it is and their are so many talented people on the GOP bench.  Probably anyone popular in the WOW counties can win statewide in a midterm.  Thus, it is almost irrelevant how Trump is doing.  A majority of people who voted for Trump don't really like him here, they will vote for someone they chose in a primary.

[SATW]

Joe Manchin (WV): No, he'll lose or retire.
Heidi Heitkamp (ND): I'd say leans R but Heitkamp is no political novice and can hold her own.
Jon Tester (MT): Yes, wins even against Zinke.
Joe Donnelly (IN): No, he'll lose
Claire McCaskill (MO): I think she loses but remember 2012...so GOP has to play it right.
Sherrod Brown (OH): yes, he's safe.
Bill Nelson (FL): yes, he's safe if he runs; toss up if he retires.
Bob Casey (PA): yes, he will win by a decent margin if he runs; toss up/lean D if he retires/runs for gov.
Tammy Baldwin (WI): yes, she wins big.
Debbie Stabenow (MI): yes, she wins big.

WV, ND, IN, and MO flip in my extremely early guesstimates.

[Figueira]

The last democrat to win anything during a midterm in this state was 2006!

Uh....

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The big divide here seems to be whether midterms inherently favor the out-party or the Republican Party.  In the last two midterms, those theories were on the same page, but 2018 will be a good test.  I think it is some of both, which will result in a neutral to slightly Republican mood.  This probably means significant GOP gains in the Senate, little change in the House, and Democratic gains at the state level.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

anywhere from 2 to all 10. depends above all on how much voter suppression gets forced through over the next few years

Yeah, would be really bad if there would be rules like in our country which really prohibit illegals from voting and will make voter fraud (Hello Chicago, Hello Philadelphia) more complicated.

don't you have an n.p.d. rally to be attending

As usual: The Leftist hasn't any arguments left and needs to insult his opponent. The tolerant Left strikes again.

But to answer your question: I have to work. That's what sane, decent people do to give you H.a.r.t.z.

i mean, it's difficult to respond to a trite long-debunked non-argument with a "real argument" ㄟ(ツ)ㄏ

[Heisenberg]

The last democrat to win anything during a midterm in this state was 2006!

Wrong, Doug La Follette.

[AmericanNation]

The last democrat to win anything during a midterm in this state was 2006!

Wrong, Doug La Follette.

...The secretary of state in wisconsin does next to nothing... I defined "anything" to be offices with some power not a relic that has been eliminated in all but name.  SOS is legally powerless and probably should be eliminated by constitutional amendment. 
Good catch tho.     

[Figueira]

The more relevant point is that both of the midterms since 2006 have been Republican wave years. There's no reason to expect 2018 to be one.

[Young Conservative]

WAY Too Early to tell, but if the election was held today...
Joe Manchin (WV) : WV was the second most GOP state this year, but voted for Jim Justice. Who knows....pure tossup for now.
Heidi Heitkamp (ND): Should be an easy pickup
Jon Tester (MT): Tilt Pickup
Joe Donnelly (IN): Should be an easy pickup
Claire McCaskill (MO): IN B4 TN volunteer. Should be an Easy Pickup
Sherrod Brown (OH): Ohio Voted 9 points to the right of the nation....I have no idea if it will hold,  but Brown could be in real trouble. As of now, Hold
Bill Nelson (FL): Likely Hold
Bob Casey (PA): Likely Hold
Tammy Baldwin (WI): Potential PickUP with a strong nominee like Mike Gallagher or Sean Duff
Debbie Stabenow (MI): Likely Hold

[Fusionmunster]

Heitkamp is being heavily underestimated. As TNVolunteer said, ND is a state where "retail politics" works very well; she certainly has a better chance of getting reelected than Manchin or McCaskill does.

I have to agree. She seems like she knows her constituents well. 2012 wasn't just a fluke or a favorable year, she's a great candidate.

[Figueira]

WAY Too Early to tell, but if the election was held today...
Joe Manchin (WV) : WV was the second most GOP state this year, but voted for Jim Justice. Who knows....pure tossup for now.
Heidi Heitkamp (ND): Should be an easy pickup
Jon Tester (MT): Tilt Pickup
Joe Donnelly (IN): Should be an easy pickup
Claire McCaskill (MO): IN B4 TN volunteer. Should be an Easy Pickup
Sherrod Brown (OH): Ohio Voted 9 points to the right of the nation....I have no idea if it will hold,  but Brown could be in real trouble. As of now, Hold
Bill Nelson (FL): Likely Hold
Bob Casey (PA): Likely Hold
Tammy Baldwin (WI): Potential PickUP with a strong nominee like Mike Gallagher or Sean Duff
Debbie Stabenow (MI): Likely Hold

"If the election were held today" I doubt any of them would lose. Pryor and Landrieu were leading polls up until the summer of 2014.

[jamestroll]

McCaskill can still win. All of them can still win. I would not assume 2018 will be pro-democratic at this stage. We can not assume anything.

I would love her replaced with Kander or Koster. Personally, I would want Koster due to myself literally agreeing with him on every issue. But he would not be as a good of a campaigner.

Right now, it looks like Republicans are predicting gop victories and Democrats predicting Democratic victories.

[coloradocowboi]

So the fundamentals:
1. Dems are at a better advantage than they would've been. The Black President is gone. We're in the minority, and our base will be pissed while the low-income, low-turnout Repubs are placated. THat said, this is a horrible map.

Joe Manchin (WV) : The worst Democratic Senator is probably the safest, especially since he is already paying lip service to the Fuhrer. But the question is, does he leave the Party? LEANS D/SAFE R if he bails

Heidi Heitkamp (ND): I don't know. North Dakota has the potential to be very elastic. Also its population is transient and growing quickly. Still, the fundamentals are not great for her. LEANS R

Jon Tester (MT): Montana is a red state that loves to balance things out with a Democrat, and Tester is a really good fit for the state. TOSSUP-TILTS D could be LEANS D if Trump is as bad for the economy and environment as I think he'll be.

Joe Donnelly (IN): RIP--LIKELY R

Claire McCaskill (MO): She's just not a good fit for Missouri. She's an economic moderate and social liberal with a penchant for lecturing her white working-class constituents on SJW stuff. LIKELY R unless the economy is really bad.

Sherrod Brown (OH): People are extrapolating way too much about this election based on the '16 presidential race. Brown is the exact kind of Dem who can win in Ohio because he's an economic populist, and the angry Old folks who turn out en masse are going to be less of a % of the electorate, only to be replaced by young folks and African Americans angry about Trump. LEANS D

Bill Nelson (FL): He said he's not retiring so SAFE D

Bob Casey (PA): For the love of God will somebody primary this guy!? Hopefully that happens, but probably not. Either way, people are once again extrapolating too much from one election. Without HRC on the ballot, populist Dems will do well in PA. LEANS D

Tammy Baldwin (WI): See OH and PA. Might be a bit harder for her as queer woman in a midterm, but also Wisconsin has better D turnout in midterms sooooo LEANS D

Debbie Stabenow (MI): LIKELY D

Kaine could be competitive, but won't be at this point. I think Dems will take one of AZ, NV, or TX with everything static and 2 if the economy goes South or Trump is really bad. NJ won't be competitive because even if Menendez runs he will go down in a primary.

So tabulating the above races, I'd say that the GOP picks up 2-4 seats probably, no more than 5. If they are really screwing up though, I say they pick up 2, lose 2, leaving the Senate at 52-48.

[AmericanNation]

So the fundamentals:
Tammy Baldwin (WI): See OH and PA. Might be a bit harder for her as queer woman in a midterm, but also Wisconsin has better D turnout in midterms sooooo LEANS D

What?  You mean Wisconsin has better Republican turnout in midterms so leans R?

[jamestroll]

So the fundamentals:
Tammy Baldwin (WI): See OH and PA. Might be a bit harder for her as queer woman in a midterm, but also Wisconsin has better D turnout in midterms sooooo LEANS D

What?  You mean Wisconsin has better Republican turnout in midterms so leans R?

But it is not going to be a midterm with a Democrat as president.

Granted 2018 could end up like 98 and 02 with modest gains for the party with the Presidency. But people are now acting like Wisconsin is a solid GOP state. It is not.

[AmericanNation]

So the fundamentals:
Tammy Baldwin (WI): See OH and PA. Might be a bit harder for her as queer woman in a midterm, but also Wisconsin has better D turnout in midterms sooooo LEANS D

What?  You mean Wisconsin has better Republican turnout in midterms so leans R?

But it is not going to be a midterm with a Democrat as president.

Granted 2018 could end up like 98 and 02 with modest gains for the party with the Presidency. But people are now acting like Wisconsin is a solid GOP state. It is not.

Republicans have won everything since 2010 except Baldwin and Obama in 12.  I mean everything.  An incumbent Supreme Court justice (democrat) won reelection last year (incumbents have lost twice in 50 years)... that's it.  You have to go back to the 1920's to find this kind of Republican domination.       

[jamestroll]

So the fundamentals:
Tammy Baldwin (WI): See OH and PA. Might be a bit harder for her as queer woman in a midterm, but also Wisconsin has better D turnout in midterms sooooo LEANS D

What?  You mean Wisconsin has better Republican turnout in midterms so leans R?

But it is not going to be a midterm with a Democrat as president.

Granted 2018 could end up like 98 and 02 with modest gains for the party with the Presidency. But people are now acting like Wisconsin is a solid GOP state. It is not.

Republicans have won everything since 2010 except Baldwin and Obama in 12.  I mean everything.  An incumbent Supreme Court justice (democrat) won reelection last year (incumbents have lost twice in 50 years)... that's it.  You have to go back to the 1920's to find this kind of Republican domination.       

But that does not mean that you can automatically count Wisconsin as a super solid GOP pickup in a midterm year with a Republican President. Sure, rules do not always break perfectly, but statistically it it hard to see 2018 as a GOP landslide year.

[LimoLiberal]

Underestimate Heidi Heitkamp at your own peril. She is well-liked, and the Republican president in 2018 will likely not be. Thats pretty much all thats fundamentally important in ND.

[Klartext89]

anywhere from 2 to all 10. depends above all on how much voter suppression gets forced through over the next few years

Yeah, would be really bad if there would be rules like in our country which really prohibit illegals from voting and will make voter fraud (Hello Chicago, Hello Philadelphia) more complicated.

don't you have an n.p.d. rally to be attending

As usual: The Leftist hasn't any arguments left and needs to insult his opponent. The tolerant Left strikes again.

But to answer your question: I have to work. That's what sane, decent people do to give you H.a.r.t.z.

i mean, it's difficult to respond to a trite long-debunked non-argument with a "real argument" ㄟ(ツ)ㄏ

That's what Conservatives always have to deal with when talking to a Liberal/Leftist ;-)

But I never expected you to have an argument, the voter ID case in comparison to Germany is simply striking down everything. Hopefully the GOP will go all-in with voter ID, the SCOTUS will decide right and the Dems will lose millions of fraud votes. ^^

[Klartext89]

Underestimate Heidi Heitkamp at your own peril. She is well-liked, and the Republican president in 2018 will likely not be. Thats pretty much all thats fundamentally important in ND.

I doubt that Trump will not be well liked in North Dakota. He won't do much that isn't popular in ND.

Heitkamp is a fighter, no question. But the GOP has plenty of time and resources to search and fund a strong challenger.

Hopefully they realize the big opportunity they will have in 2018. Knocking off 4-5 Dem incumbents, getting the number to 56+ seats and hold the Senate for a Long time cause there aren't many GOP Senators in blue states left...