Black and Hispanic vote

[reagan84]

According to exit polls, Trump got 8-9% of the black vote.   I expected that he'd do a little better (maybe 12-15) but one thing that I found curious was according to O'Reilly, he got 13% of the black male vote and only 4% of the black female vote.  Any reason why black men are more than 3 times more likely to vote R than black women?   

I was equally surprised that Trump did marginally better than Romney among Hispanics (29 vs 27) despite all the talk about building a wall and deportations.  In fact, he wasn't significantly worse than McCain, a longtime supporter of amnesty.  That tells me that the immigration issue is really not all that important for legal Hispanics.  I don't imagine Rubio getting much over 35 unless he pushes big government. 

IMHO, the best way for the GOP to make inroads with black voters is to push for criminal justice reform and specifically reduction of penalties for drug offenses.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think those numbers are a little bit exaggerated right now....we should wait a few more days for the voter files to emerge.

otherwise.....men are obviously more interested in trump's philosophy than women....so black women is like: double down.

andi agree with criminal justice reform but if today is any kind of signal for the next 4 years, the GOP is on a roll and wants to feel its power (national right to work law/privatization of medicare/ destroying of EPA/full obama care repeal.....etc)

nuanced and compromise won't be popular right now.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I thinks exit-polls underestimate Trump. It was much harder for black and women to admit that they voted for Trump.


I am looking forward for deeper post-electon analysis. It'll interesting.

[Matty]

The access hollywood tape helped trump with black men.

Also, you guys on this board put wayyyyy too much stock in the latino decisions polls. That is a DEMOCRATIC firm staffed by mexican democrats. Most other national polls had trump doing better than 25%

[Beet]

Most minorities are working class. The same factors that caused Trump to do better than Romney among working class whites, working class minorities were not immune to. Nor are minorities immune to the gender gap.

[Shadows]

Even ABC exit poll had 27% for Trump among hispanics.

Trump beat Romney among hispanics which is incredible!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Most minorities are working class. The same factors that caused Trump to do better than Romney among working class whites, working class minorities were not immune to. Nor are minorities immune to the gender gap.

[ApatheticAustrian]

The access hollywood tape helped trump with black men.

Also, you guys on this board put wayyyyy too much stock in the latino decisions polls. That is a DEMOCRATIC firm staffed by mexican democrats. Most other national polls had trump doing better than 25%

this is more a "common sense" question.

if you remember the dominating narrative of this election is, insulting the white working class creates a backlash.

compared to trump's obsession with all things mexican and his paranoid way of anti-latino campaigning, everything hillary or other top dems said was veiled and much more complex....and it is absoluely reasonable to expect the same kind of backlash.

(in fact, latinos in 2016 have been more painful for trump than for romney in 2012 cause of the bigger slice of the electorate in key states. losing 2/3 of small sample is less problematic than losing by 2/3 with an increasing sample)

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The access hollywood tape helped trump with black men.

Also, you guys on this board put wayyyyy too much stock in the latino decisions polls. That is a DEMOCRATIC firm staffed by mexican democrats. Most other national polls had trump doing better than 25%

Did you just imply that black men love sexual harassment and groping?

[Beet]

The access hollywood tape helped trump with black men.

Also, you guys on this board put wayyyyy too much stock in the latino decisions polls. That is a DEMOCRATIC firm staffed by mexican democrats. Most other national polls had trump doing better than 25%

Did you just imply that black men love sexual harassment and groping?

Oh yes, racist whites love to imply that non whites abuse women, but it's they who put pussy grabber into office, and minorities who nearly elected the first woman president.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

The access hollywood tape helped trump with black men.

Also, you guys on this board put wayyyyy too much stock in the latino decisions polls. That is a DEMOCRATIC firm staffed by mexican democrats. Most other national polls had trump doing better than 25%

Did you just imply that black men love sexual harassment and groping?

Did you ever HEAR a rap song? Like any of them? Objectification and alfa-machism. "I've got money, I f**k bichezzzz". It is part of their culture, no?

Or do you think that black women are abused in less degree than white?

[rob in cal]

  In terms of raw data from real actual cities, I think Philly will have its ward by ward vote breakdown up next week.  It will be interesting to see how Trump did vs Romney in places like Ward 10 where Obama got 99% of the vote.
  Cleveland is already up, and Trump got small little chunks of the vote, like 10 to 20 votes in many ( I'm guessing about this) all black precincts, the same precincts where Romney got just two or three votes.  Philly will be easier to look at because they break it down by ward, Cleveland by precinct.

[SingingAnalyst]

Detroit, MI voted 3.1% for Trump, up from 2.1% for Romney and 2.6% for McCain. (Bush however got 6.0% of Detroit vote in 2004)

[Ljube]

Most minorities are working class. The same factors that caused Trump to do better than Romney among working class whites, working class minorities were not immune to. Nor are minorities immune to the gender gap.

[jaichind]

In record numbers, Latinos voted overwhelmingly against Trump. We did the research

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/11/in-record-numbers-latinos-voted-overwhelmingly-against-trump-we-did-the-research/

Latino Decisions is pushing back on the exit poll that says Trump won 29% of the Latino vote. They claim it is more like 18%.  I recall a similar pushback on 2010 NV exit polls showing that Sharron Angle won 30% of the Latino vote.

Of course if we accept their assertion then Trump must have won about another 1.7% of the White vote which would make the Trump size of victory in the White vote to grow from 21% to a massive 24%.

I tend to doubt their assertion and feel if anything the exit polls underestimate Latino support for Trump.  The fact that Latino Decisions  does polling in  Spanish already creates an interview environment that focused on a Latino identity (Spanish speaking).  This creates psychological  pressure to not indicate support for Trump.

I think this election sort of shows that the GOP floor for Latino vote is around 27%-29%.  If anything I expect this floor to go up as more Latino's move into higher income brackets.  A counterargument would also be that higher income and assimilated Latinos might identify as White after a couple of generations in which case the floor is unlikely to go up.
 

[ApatheticAustrian]

according to the exit polls, trump got 30 points of the latino share in ARIZONA....

if so, someone should explain to me how clinton was able to improve so much, while trump got more latino votes than romney....

big white pro-clinton re-alignment?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

The access hollywood tape helped trump with black men.

What a racist POS comment... please remove yourself from this forum.

[jaichind]

according to the exit polls, trump got 30 points of the latino share in ARIZONA....

if so, someone should explain to me how clinton was able to improve so much, while trump got more latino votes than romney....

big white pro-clinton re-alignment?

For Whites Trump went from +20 to +21.  But he traded Whites.  He traded College educated Whites votes in CA TX NY IL VA WA OR NJ MA CT CO for non-college White votes in IA OH MI WI PA.  Which was a good trade for him. The losses does not cost him EV the gains are all in EV.

[jaichind]

Even ABC exit poll had 27% for Trump among hispanics.

Trump beat Romney among hispanics which is incredible!

The adjusted exit polls has Trump at 29%

[jaichind]

I thinks exit-polls underestimate Trump. It was much harder for black and women to admit that they voted for Trump.


I am looking forward for deeper post-electon analysis. It'll interesting.

Trump did gain more among Black Men.  He went from -76 to -67 when for Black women he went from -93 to -90

[Ljube]

Guys, I told you Trump would win more Hispanics than Romney.
I said around 30%.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

according to the exit polls, trump got 30 points of the latino share in ARIZONA....

if so, someone should explain to me how clinton was able to improve so much, while trump got more latino votes than romney....

big white pro-clinton re-alignment?

For Whites Trump went from +20 to +21.  But he traded Whites.  He traded College educated Whites votes in CA TX NY IL VA WA OR NJ MA CT CO for non-college White votes in IA OH MI WI PA.  Which was a good trade for him. The losses does not cost him EV the gains are all in EV.

^^^^
This!

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/07/us/how-trump-can-win.html?_r=0

[reagan84]

Interesting discussions so far.  Tend to agree with most of it.  Appealing broadly to the working class helped Trump among Hispanics while Romney was dismissive and out of touch.  

As for the gender gap, 9 points is to be expected among white voters (approx. 66-57) but the RATIO of blacks (3x) is what is puzzling to me.  I would not be surprised if the Hispanic breakdown is 34M-25F but not 44-15.  Also, I tend to believe that young blacks would be more likely to support Trump.  I would not be surprised if he broke 20% among black males under 30.

[rob in cal]

  Would like to see Hialeah Florida results from 2012 and 2016. On the MiamiDade election site I haven't found the breakdown by city, not sure if they do that.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Only a fool would have expected Hillary to do as well with blacks as Obama.