Some good news for Dems: Will 2018 be a bloodbath for Republican governors?

[Crumpets]

This map shows states where Republican governors are term-limited and will have open elections in 2018. Dark states are states with Republican incumbents that voted for Hillary Clinton. It seems pretty inevitable that Democrats will pick up a couple seats, especially considering that the party in opposition usually has some solid gains in midterms.

[Kingpoleon]

IL, MI, ME, NM, FL, and MD all flipping is almost certain, and that would be pretty bad for Republicans. NV has several strong recruits(Heidi Gansert, Joe Heck, Brian Krolicki, etc.), a very popular Governor, and a strong GOP machine. OH has a pretty good recruit if Mary Taylor wins, a very popular Governor, and a very strong GOP machine. NH could only be flipped by Van Ostern or Pappas IMO. GA, KS, and SC all may have good chances of being flipped. Even AL has potential to flip if Roy Moore gets the GOP nomination.

[windjammer]

If there is an incumbent that is totally screwed, it's Bruce Rauner

[Figueira]

If there is an incumbent that is totally screwed, it's Bruce Rauner

Probably the most sincerely #NeverTrump Republican there was.

Sununu is also in trouble considering the last Republican governor lost after two years.

Scott, Hogan, and Baker may still win, but they're also not in an amazing position like they would have been under a Democratic President.

[windjammer]

"Depends"/Too early to tell.

And yes, this obviously

[AZDem]

This map shows states where Republican governors are term-limited and will have open elections in 2018. Dark states are states with Republican incumbents that voted for Hillary Clinton. It seems pretty inevitable that Democrats will pick up a couple seats, especially considering that the party in opposition usually has some solid gains in midterms.

You for got Ducey in AZ. He's not term-limited but AZ has a history of electing governors from the opposite party. It will be difficult as we have no statewide Dems right know but Greg Stanton, the mayor of Phoenix could possibly mount a challenge. It will probably depend on the prevailing mood. Napolitano won AZ in '02 by 12,000 in a very Republican midterm with a very popular President so anything might be possible.

As for the rest of the map, we could see upwards of 8-10 shifts in the right environment.

[anthonyjg]

If there is an incumbent that is totally screwed, it's Bruce Rauner

Probably the most sincerely #NeverTrump Republican there was.

His position on Trump always seemed kind of ambiguous to me, a lot like Toomey. But whether or not he actually voted for the guy, Democrats have been running a lot of ads like these to tie them together, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7J3xBCCwB8. If I can find any silver lining in this election, it's that Rauner is almost certainly gone in 2018.

[Blackacre]

This map shows states where Republican governors are term-limited and will have open elections in 2018. Dark states are states with Republican incumbents that voted for Hillary Clinton. It seems pretty inevitable that Democrats will pick up a couple seats, especially considering that the party in opposition usually has some solid gains in midterms.

Even the states where the governors aren't term-limited are opportunities. Wisconsin elected Walker in a pair of Obama midterms, and while Trump did win it, Walker's probably in trouble.

[Nyvin]

In terms of long-term strategy...the Democrats should focus the vast majority of their effort/resources to the upcoming gov elections.

[Orser67]

Many of these also play a role in redistricting. Florida and Arizona are two big exceptions. Ohio, Georgia, Illinois, and Michigan (and Texas) would be huge pick-ups afaik.

[smoltchanov]

Depends. And - very much depends. If 2016 taught me something it's that candidate's quality still frequently beats "bad label" in gubernatorial elections. Two best examples (which i will frequently use next 2 years) are, of course, Justice and Scott. Who could imagine that in fiercely Republican (on federal level) West Virginia Democrat will not only win, but not even narrowly (by more then 6%)? Or that in Vermont, which gave more then 28% margins both to Clinton and Leahy, Scott will overperform Trump by more then 20% and win relatively easily by 8.7%??? You may add Bullock here, who also overperformed Clinton in Montana  heavily (14%). Even Cooper and Sununu have shown that candidate "tailored" for the state (moderate Democrat in Cooper's case, and relatively moderate Republican - in Sununu's), may squeeze enough extra votes needed for victory.

Generally "terrain" will favor Democrats. of course. But a lot will depends on candidates. Yes, Democrats may have chances even in Alabama, but - only with relatively conservative Democrat, because even Roy Moore will beat "flaming progressive" there. The same - in many other states...

[Shadows]

Depends on a lot of things, how Trump does, Dem candidate, GOP candidate, kind of campaign, etc.

But NH, VT, ME, MD, IL & MI should be pickups with a strong candidate & campaign. NV, NM & OH are also potential pickups if everything turns good.

Let us see - If the Dem party is not in ruin - And they don't support stooges of establishment there is a chance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can see GOP winning MA, MD, OH, FL and VT but everything else flips

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IL, MI, ME, NM, FL, and MD all flipping is almost certain, and that would be pretty bad for Republicans. NV has several strong recruits(Heidi Gansert, Joe Heck, Brian Krolicki, etc.), a very popular Governor, and a strong GOP machine. OH has a pretty good recruit if Mary Taylor wins, a very popular Governor, and a very strong GOP machine. NH could only be flipped by Van Ostern or Pappas IMO. GA, KS, and SC all may have good chances of being flipped. Even AL has potential to flip if Roy Moore gets the GOP nomination.

Forget about the South anymore, that region is solid GOP. NV, IL, WI, MI, ME and NJ

[publicunofficial]

Democrats need to make sure to hold MN-GOV as well. A Republican legislature could easily draw a 6-1 House map in the GOP's favor for 2022 onward.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

IL, MI, ME, NM, FL, and MD all flipping is almost certain, and that would be pretty bad for Republicans. NV has several strong recruits(Heidi Gansert, Joe Heck, Brian Krolicki, etc.), a very popular Governor, and a strong GOP machine. OH has a pretty good recruit if Mary Taylor wins, a very popular Governor, and a very strong GOP machine. NH could only be flipped by Van Ostern or Pappas IMO. GA, KS, and SC all may have good chances of being flipped. Even AL has potential to flip if Roy Moore gets the GOP nomination.

LOL. As if a rather crazy event from one of my TLs has any realistic chance of actually happening.

[Nyvin]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Kansas be competitive too,  especially with a Republican President.

Things REALLY haven't gotten any better there if you read the news...

Democrats need to make sure to hold MN-GOV as well. A Republican legislature could easily draw a 6-1 House map in the GOP's favor for 2022 onward.

Really?   Wow, that seems crazy,  the population shifts seem to be toward the Twin Cities area and you'd think that would benefit the Dems.    They'd have to endanger a number of seats to do that I would think...the St. Cloud area isn't THAT conservative.

[Virginiá]

In terms of long-term strategy...the Democrats should focus the vast majority of their effort/resources to the upcoming gov elections.

There is a pretty large, well-funded redistricting protection effort coming together for 2018-2020, and that was even before this election. Now there are extraordinary opportunities.

In my eyes, thanks to Trump there is a very strong chance of 2 back-to-back waves if we pick the right candidates (inc. '20 presidential). We have 2 elections to build up significantly at the state level under what I imagine will be a very unpopular GOP presidency.

But, we'll see. I at least feel confident in saying that 2020 will not by any means be another redistricting rout for Democrats.

-

As for the map, I like Da-Jon's, but I disagree with FL & KS, and I don't understand his rationale for Kentucky, Mississippi or North Dakota.

[Blackacre]

IL, MI, ME, NM, FL, and MD all flipping is almost certain, and that would be pretty bad for Republicans. NV has several strong recruits(Heidi Gansert, Joe Heck, Brian Krolicki, etc.), a very popular Governor, and a strong GOP machine. OH has a pretty good recruit if Mary Taylor wins, a very popular Governor, and a very strong GOP machine. NH could only be flipped by Van Ostern or Pappas IMO. GA, KS, and SC all may have good chances of being flipped. Even AL has potential to flip if Roy Moore gets the GOP nomination.

LOL. As if a rather crazy event from one of my TLs has any realistic chance of actually happening.

You say that, but I had a 2016 timeline involving Al Franken and look whose name is starting to come up for 2020...

In terms of long-term strategy...the Democrats should focus the vast majority of their effort/resources to the upcoming gov elections.

There is a pretty large, well-funded redistricting protection effort coming together for 2018-2020, and that was even before this election. Now there are extraordinary opportunities.

In my eyes, thanks to Trump there is a very strong chance of 2 back-to-back waves if we pick the right candidates (inc. '20 presidential). We have 2 elections to build up significantly at the state level under what I imagine will be a very unpopular GOP presidency.

But, we'll see. I at least feel confident in saying that 2020 will not by any means be another redistricting rout for Democrats.

-

As for the map, I like Da-Jon's, but I disagree with FL & KS, and I don't understand his rationale for Kentucky, Mississippi or North Dakota.

To be honest, I'm squeamish about gerrymandering hard after 2020 considering all the complaining we made after 2010 and 2012. Any state with a Dem trifecta in 2019 should create independent redistricting commissions a la CA and AZ.

[Virginiá]

To be honest, I'm squeamish about gerrymandering hard after 2020 considering all the complaining we made after 2010 and 2012. Any state with a Dem trifecta in 2019 should create independent redistricting commissions a la CA and AZ.

I would also prefer it if we could get past these corrupt practices. I just want maps that ensure everyone gets fair representation. If Democrats find themselves with numerous trifectas by 2021, it's my hope that they enshrine right to vote amendments (see: IL) and redistricting commissions with strict bans on partisan/incumbent/etc gerrymandering in the state constitutions, so as to avoid any tom-foolery by the GOP if they happen to take the state govt back later on.

[Bojack Horseman]

I said the day after the 2014 election that irrespective of who wins the Presidency, we'd have a Democratic governor in 4 years. New Mexico is pretty much guaranteed to go back to the Dems, and if Trump is unpopular enough (Which I'd bet my bottom dollar he will be) we'll pick up the open governorships in Nevada, Florida, Maine, and possibly Kansas after the Brownback disaster.

In 2002, Democrats won the governorships in Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wyoming (WTF!?), Maine, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Illinois and that was when Bush was popular enough for Republicans to take back the Senate and hold the House. If we can get strong, local candidates and get enough money behind them, I think Brad Henry can win his old job back in Oklahoma, or maybe even Jim Cooper in Tennessee.

This is where the Trump unpopularity factor comes in. I think his approval ratings will be at Obama 2010 or worse to where the message "Stop Donald Trump, vote (Democratic Candidate)" will work in even moderately red states. In normally-blue states like my own state of Michigan, I think Donald Trump is going to end up sweeping the Republicans out of power, just like Bush did in 2006. We took a commanding majority in the state House of Representatives and something like 3 seats from winning the Senate as well.

[Indy Texas]

Democrats should target the hell out of the Upper Midwest because it is abundantly clear that they need to figure out what the hell happened up there this year.

[Person Man]

Rauner/Baker/Hogan are all rich enough that they might want to consider seeking reelection as Indies and hoping they get Trump-backing Republican opponents to pull some union/populist vote away from the Dems.

FL-GOV 2018 matters a lot more than most realize because it is the difference between a 4/3 liberal majority or a 6/1 conservative majority on the FL Supreme Court for 2021.  One of the current 5 liberal justices hits the mandatory retirement age under Scott, and 3 more reach that age in 2019.  If they lose that court, a Republican trifecta will basically be able to ignore the Fair Districts Florida law.  Of course, FL Dems can still try a CA-style commission referendum in 2020 as a Hail Mary.

Florida matters next year. Will Democrats be able to get in after 20 years of dynasty?

[PAK Man]

Illinois should be highly competitive, and while I'm wary about making Rauner an underdog immediately, he's probably the most endangered GOP governor up for reelection in 2018. Lisa Madigan probably won't run (I think she's waiting for her dad, unpopular State House Speaker Mike Madigan, to retire/die before seeking a promotion) but there's plenty of other candidates that could run.

New Mexico is another excellent pickup opportunity. Martinez is easily the most prominent Republican in the state, and beyond her, the GOP doesn't have much of a bench, though Steve Pearce has publicly said he's considering. Democrats have a very deep bench in the state. Apparently Tom Udall has been seriously considering jumping in. AG Hector Balderas would also be a strong contender.

I think Democrats have about a 50-50 shot in Michigan, depending on who the candidates on either side are.

Nevada probably tilts R to start off with, but both sides have decent benches.

Dems already have Gwen Graham in Florida (she's "exploring," but I'd find it shocking if she didn't go for it in the end). Republican primary could be crowded. It's been 20+ years since Democrats have won the governor's seat here, though they came close in 2010 and 2014.

Wisconsin could be competitive, but Democrats would need a candidate. I have no idea who would be a strong contender against Walker (Feingold's probably kicking himself for not challenging Walker in 2014).

Ohio is very much the same way as Wisconsin. I don't know who Democrats would get to run (maybe Richard Cordray?)

If Branstad retires in Iowa, like I think he will, Democrats are going to need someone here to go for it. Much of the well-known Democrats have been decimated the past year or so, but there's still candidates like Pam Jochum and Liz Mathis who might be able to make it a race. I fully expect LG Kim Reynolds to run.

Maine and Alaska are both kind of wild cards in that Maine likes to run its independents (though I think Cutler said he wouldn't run again) and Alaska has Bill Walker as an actual independent governor. As far as I'm concerned, both start out as pure tossups.

Maryland and Massachusetts are going to be tricky for Dems to dislodge (especially Massachusetts, I feel, since they've had more GOP governors than Maryland).

As for places where Democrats will play offense, I feel like the seats most in danger would be Connecticut (especially if Malloy runs again), Colorado (depends on who runs on each side), and maybe Pennsylvania, though Tom Wolf seems like he's doing fine.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Generally "terrain" will favor Democrats. of course. But a lot will depends on candidates. Yes, Democrats may have chances even in Alabama, but - only with relatively conservative Democrat, because even Roy Moore will beat "flaming progressive" there. The same - in many other states...

Wow , how right you were(Except it was in the Senate not Guberntorial Race)