The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

[Blue3]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact


This is a compact among states that says, once their number reaches 270 EV, their Electoral College representatives would be bound to select the winner of the national popular vote for President of the United States.

Basically, it's a way to effectively abolish the Electoral College for a Popular Vote, but without a constitutional amendment.

The states who have passed it so far are:
New York
California
Illinois
Washington
Massachusetts
Vermont
Maryland
New Jersey
Rhode Island
Hawaii
(plus DC)

That's 165 EV. They need 105 more EV.




What are the chances of more states joining soon?

What's the path to 270?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Tough one.

Oregon
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Nevada

That takes them to 201 and isn't too hard to picture.
Adding Minnesota (probably doable) brings that to 211. But by the time they can get to 270 many state legislatures will have flipped and the Dems will be having a resurgence.

And the GOP will never support it, because they always lose the popular vote.

[SteveRogers]

While I will always support abolishing the electoral college, this isn't the right way to do it. A minority of states representing a minority of the population shouldn't be circumventing the Constitution to decide the way that the whole nation must elect the president. Also, the NPVIC doesn't address the fact that a nationwide popular vote doesn't make much sense without nationwide standards for administering the election.

I want the electoral college gone, but that's a decision we should have to make as a nation through the Constitutional amendment process.

[Anti-Bothsidesism]

While I will always support abolishing the electoral college, this isn't the right way to do it. A minority of states representing a minority of the population shouldn't be circumventing the Constitution to decide the way that the whole nation must elect the president. Also, the NPVIC doesn't address the fact that a nationwide popular vote doesn't make much sense without nationwide standards for administering the election.

I want the electoral college gone, but that's a decision we should have to make as a nation through the Constitutional amendment process.

This.

[Gass3268]

Tough one.

Oregon
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Nevada

That takes them to 201 and isn't too hard to picture.
Adding Minnesota (probably doable) brings that to 211. But by the time they can get to 270 many state legislatures will have flipped and the Dems will be having a resurgence.

And the GOP will never support it, because they always lose the popular vote.

I think it could pass in Republican states through referendum.

[Mr. Morden]

A minority of states representing a minority of the population shouldn't be circumventing the Constitution to decide the way that the whole nation must elect the president.

"Representing a minority of the population"?  If this were to actually pass in enough states to reach 270, it would presumably be in states representing a majority of the population.  I don't see a realistic combination of remaining states that would be otherwise.

[7,052,770]

If President Trump announces he wants to get rid of the electoral college (going forward), enough Republican states will fall in line.

[°Leprechaun]

I think that it is perfectly legal. Currently states have the power to decide their electors in whatever way they chose (ME, NE for example). In 2004, Colorado had a referendum to allocate their electors proportionally, but it was overwhelmingly defeated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado_Amendment_36

[Mehmentum]

While I will always support abolishing the electoral college, this isn't the right way to do it. A minority of states representing a minority of the population shouldn't be circumventing the Constitution to decide the way that the whole nation must elect the president. Also, the NPVIC doesn't address the fact that a nationwide popular vote doesn't make much sense without nationwide standards for administering the election.

I want the electoral college gone, but that's a decision we should have to make as a nation through the Constitutional amendment process.

The constitution gives the states the ability to decide how they allocate their electoral votes.  It would  even be completely, 100% constitutional for the state legislature to outright decide which candidate to allocate votes toward (this happened often in the early years of the Republic).

[Blue3]

Yeah, I don't see what the legal problems would be. It's up to the states to decide how to choose the Electors that choose the President, and/or how to bind them.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

One of the most lame proposals ever put forward by the anti-EC crowd in my opinion.

[The_Doctor]

The College will be abolished by 2035. It will hinge on how strong the Democratic majority is but believe me, the minute they reach majority party status, and have enough states, they will pass this so fast that it will cause whiplash, lol.

It will be similar to the 1960s, where a raft of Constitutional amendments were passed under heavy Democratic majorities.

[Blue3]

One of the most lame proposals ever put forward by the anti-EC crowd in my opinion.

Hey, if it works...

Also much faster than an amendment, though it would probably be backed-up by one eventually.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The College will be abolished by 2035. It will hinge on how strong the Democratic majority is but believe me, the minute they reach majority party status, and have enough states, they will pass this so fast that it will cause whiplash, lol.

It will be similar to the 1960s, where a raft of Constitutional amendments were passed under heavy Democratic majorities.

You mean like the ERA and the DC Representation Amendment?

The amendments that passed in the 60's and 70's  had bipartisan support.  Right now, abolishing the Electoral College is a partisan issue.

[The_Doctor]

The College will be abolished by 2035. It will hinge on how strong the Democratic majority is but believe me, the minute they reach majority party status, and have enough states, they will pass this so fast that it will cause whiplash, lol.

It will be similar to the 1960s, where a raft of Constitutional amendments were passed under heavy Democratic majorities.

You mean like the ERA and the DC Representation Amendment?

The amendments that passed in the 60's and 70's  had bipartisan support.  Right now, abolishing the Electoral College is a partisan issue.

Yeah. And no, I believe the Democrats will be powerful enough and the GOP weak enough in the 2030s that this gains serious traction. Or the Democrats pass the compact and just make the College toothless and the GOP gives in and enacts the law.

Bipartisanship is dead, yes, lol, in the era that I'm thinking of. So will the GOP.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

There are more than enuf strongly Safe R States to block adoption of an amendment. While not quite as many, there are also enuf strongly Safe D States to block unless an amendment be bipartisan in support.

[The_Doctor]

There are more than enuf strongly Safe R States to block adoption of an amendment. While not quite as many, there are also enuf strongly Safe D States to block unless an amendment be bipartisan in support.

By my count, the Democrats would sit 2 states shy of ratification, if you have all the Obama states he won in 2008 or 2012, certain states out of the South, the Sunbelt, the usual Democratic states, and the Midwest.

Probably, they'll have enough control to ram through a slightly less controversial idea, such as reweighting the electoral college to benefit the popular vote winner. Regardless, something will be done, most likely, since a political majority will not forget (or forgive) two presidential elections that should have gone their way.

[Stranger in a strange land]

The EC is unpopular among the public, even in Republican states, and I bet there are a lot of places where the NPV Compact could pass in a referendum even if it couldn't make it through the legislature.

[Mr. Morden]

The EC is unpopular among the public, even in Republican states, and I bet there are a lot of places where the NPV Compact could pass in a referendum even if it couldn't make it through the legislature.

What's the path of least resistance on getting there via referendum?  Not every state allows you to pass legislation via referendum, so I'm wondering what combination of states is the most realistic?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

It'll pass when the Democrat wins the electoral college and the Republican wins the popular vote.

[Mr. Morden]

I'd also add that while the EC is unpopular among even Republican voters now, if Republican party leaders are convinced that it benefits them, they could whip up a scare campaign to politicize it in any referendum vote.  So I'm not sure it would actually pass in any likely R or solid R states.  You'd need to rely on a combination of Dem. states and swing states, and I don't know if there are enough such states that allow you to pass legislation by referendum to get the NPV to 270.

[Beet]

I'd also add that while the EC is unpopular among even Republican voters now, if Republican party leaders are convinced that it benefits them, they could whip up a scare campaign to politicize it in any referendum vote.  So I'm not sure it would actually pass in any likely R or solid R states.  You'd need to rely on a combination of Dem. states and swing states, and I don't know if there are enough such states that allow you to pass legislation by referendum to get the NPV to 270.

True, but even if successful, such a campaign would basically be an admission that they can't convince the majority of the people, and they have to rely on the system being rigged in their favor. It doesn't look good.

[SWE]

A minority of states representing a minority of the population shouldn't be circumventing the Constitution to decide the way that the whole nation must elect the president.

"Representing a minority of the population"?  If this were to actually pass in enough states to reach 270, it would presumably be in states representing a majority of the population.  I don't see a realistic combination of remaining states that would be otherwise.

Of course, if you wanted to get this passed via Constitutional amendment, you're basically guaranteeing it be blocked by states representing a minority of the population.

[Virginiá]

"Representing a minority of the population"?  If this were to actually pass in enough states to reach 270, it would presumably be in states representing a majority of the population.  I don't see a realistic combination of remaining states that would be otherwise.

Here is a viable map that consists of the following:

1. States that already have the compact passed
2. States that have an initiative process where voters could get it done themselves
3. States that have a Democrat-controlled legislature that could either pass it or put an amendment on the ballot for this

* There are even more conservative states that allow various forms of initiatives, but I didn't include them (ex: MS/ID/OK/NE). Some of the more conservative states may have difficult regulations for ballot measures.

Also worth noting is that any initiatives passed in GOP-controlled states would probably find themselves at risk when the Republican legislature inevitably puts an amendment on the ballot every 2 years to repeal it.

I'm not saying that map above would be possible in the end, but between Democratic states, states that have already done this and states with initiatives, you could make it work without Republican lawmaker support.

I think there it might be kind of hard to fight a proposal that simply amounts to whoever gets the most votes wins. However, I'm sure Republicans would think of some way to get lots of people to vote against it. Overall I doubt it could be done if the GOP fights it tooth and nail every step of the way with basically unlimited financial support.

[Mr. Morden]

In a state referendum in a swing state like Florida, any chance that you'd have a decent amount of opposition not from partisan Republicans, but from folks who just don't want the state to give up its special status as a swing state?  I mean, if NPV passes, then the bargaining power of voters in swing states is no greater than that of the voters anywhere else.