Trump may have won Pueblo county in CO.

[5280]

If he holds onto the lead of 136 votes in Pueblo county, it will be the biggest upset since 1972.

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/11/donald-trumps-support-from-blue-collar-colorado-voters-led-to-upset-in-a-democratic-stronghold/

[mencken]

But I thought the exit polls were wrong and Hispanics actually swung massively toward Clinton?

[Seriously?]

But I thought the exit polls were wrong and Hispanics actually swung massively toward Clinton?

[libertpaulian]

Yes, I still wouldn't count Colorado and Nevada out as swing states.  Virginia is iffy.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I predicted that this might happen...

"New Mexico isn't a state where it's plausible to expect Hispanics to swing towards Clinton because a very large proportion of Hispanics in New Mexico are descendants of families who have lived in New Mexico since the 17th or the 18th Century. Most "Hispanos" no longer speak Spanish and tend to dislike Mexican immigrants and are no different than White people in this regard. Although they're a rock-solid Democratic constituency for reasons relating to machine politics and working class identity, for these very reasons, there's room for improvement here.

It's work keeping in mind that, in 2014, Hispanos in the San Luis Valley swung sharply against Udall for reasons that appear to relate to their love of firearms. There was no such swing in Denver, where Mexican-Americans live. People who conflate Hispanos and Mexicans are very, very ignorant and have no business writing about politics in Colorado or New Mexico imo."

Pueblo County is largely composed of Mexican-Americans who are highly assimilated and Hispanos. It is a very Hispanic place, yes, but it is filled with Hispanics who do not speak Spanish and who worked in the steel industry. It does not shock me that many of them were attracted to Trump's message. It probably helps that Pueblo is something of a bubble where those with darker skin might not need to be concerned about discrimination because Poles or Italians in Pueblo see Mexicans or Hispanos as being America.

[NOVA Green]

I predicted that this might happen...

"New Mexico isn't a state where it's plausible to expect Hispanics to swing towards Clinton because a very large proportion of Hispanics in New Mexico are descendants of families who have lived in New Mexico since the 17th or the 18th Century. Most "Hispanos" no longer speak Spanish and tend to dislike Mexican immigrants and are no different than White people in this regard. Although they're a rock-solid Democratic constituency for reasons relating to machine politics and working class identity, for these very reasons, there's room for improvement here.

It's work keeping in mind that, in 2014, Hispanos in the San Luis Valley swung sharply against Udall for reasons that appear to relate to their love of firearms. There was no such swing in Denver, where Mexican-Americans live. People who conflate Hispanos and Mexicans are very, very ignorant and have no business writing about politics in Colorado or New Mexico imo."

Pueblo County is largely composed of Mexican-Americans who are highly assimilated and Hispanos. It is a very Hispanic place, yes, but it is filled with Hispanics who do not speak Spanish and who worked in the steel industry. It does not shock me that many of them were attracted to Trump's message. It probably helps that Pueblo is something of a bubble where those with darker skin might not need to be concerned about discrimination because Poles or Italians in Pueblo see Mexicans or Hispanos as being America.

Here are a few comments I posted regarding New Mexico, and I made similar statements about the "Plantation Owners in the Rio Grande Valley" on various Texas related threads (That applies to the Old Spanish elite in the SW US), that equally pertains to some counties in South-Central Colorado:

I think it will be won by a plurality, (Clinton +8-10) unless Johnson completely collapses in the state.

New Mexico is not nearly as solidly Democratic a state, as some on the forum believe, and the Obama '08 and '12 elections might well be an exception from the norm.

Before anyone jumps in, "but how can the only majority Latino state in the country be so close with Trump being the Republican nominee", the majority of Latinos in New Mexico are historic "Old Spanish" that vote more like Anglos in NM, and even sometimes to the Right.

The younger generation is not particularly enthused with Clinton, despite their dislike and revulsion of Trump on many levels, so the key are the Millennial voters in a state that Bernie came within a few thousand votes of pulling out a major upset in the Democratic Primaries, when almost everyone else was focused on California.

I hereby retract my comments from a month or so ago regarding how the "Old Spanish" Latino residents of NM could be making this state potentially competitive.

Although that community is the real "swing vote" in NM that can both elect moderate Republican Governors and US- House Reps, it appears that the Trump train has become so derailed that it can't even make a state that George W. won in '04 remotely competitive, and likely this poll significantly understates the final results once Millennials/Mexican-Americans actually go the polls come November.

I officially rescind my accolades for even suggesting that there is or was a #BattlegroundNM and will accept my punishment accordingly.

Shifting from Lean D to Likely D since Clinton has consolidated Millennial support, and it looks like Johnson's numbers have been sliding South even in NM, and Clinton appears to be the main beneficiary.

I still think there is a good chance that Johnson closes at around 10% here, Stein picks up 2% in a state where Greens do better than many other parts of the country, and these factors combine to keep Clinton under a 10% margin.

Anyways, didn't spend a ton of time dragging up every post on the subject but yes a lot of Atlasians just look at the stats and make all sorts of assumptions. I think a ton of forum members need a basic history lesson in order to understand the difference between the historic Spanish population of the SW, Mexican-Americans that found themselves on the North side of the border, after the US decided to annex parts of Northern Mexico to expand slave states, the generations of those between the War of 1848 up to the Mexican Revolution of the early 1900s that used to freely move across the Rio to visit family on both sides of the Borderlands, later on the Bracero Program of the early 1940s through 1964, and later variations of guest-worker programs, to the rapid growth of Central American populations since the 1980s....

So much history, and unfortunately a bunch of Anglos (and others) throw everything into one giant ethnic category, and then use that data selectively to create giant generalizations, not to mention picking a few selective cherries from Pueblo County (Which still has >30% of the vote to be counted in a VbM state) to create a strawman argument about overall Latino voting patterns in the US...

Sigh.... We could look at counties in the Southern San Joaquin Valley of California and say, but but but, "Trump did so great with Latinos", while ignoring the results from LA County, with over one Million votes yet to be counted. We could talk about "depressed voter turnout" in the Rio Grande Valley of Tejas, while ignoring the historic swing in the largest county in Texas (Harris County). I can currently pull up some early voting results from heavily Latino counties in Oregon, and say but, but, but "why didn't Clinton win Marion County"...

There was a clear major swing of Anglo Obama '08/'12 voters towards Trump in most rural and smaller-town areas throughout the United States, but I have yet to see any real evidence that this was as a result of increased support for the Republican nominee amongst "Latino Americans", although definitely there was a swing of the "Old Spanish" or Hispanos voters towards Trump in NM a few counties in CO, and in certain parts of the Rio Grande Valley (Offset by large swings towards the Dem nominee from working-class Latinos + higher turnout levels within the cities).

I'm still skeptical about this "Trump outperformed among Latinos" argument based upon exit polls, that under-represent primary Spanish language working-class Americans. I'll wait for detailed precinct results and then everyone can discuss.

[ApatheticAustrian]

It's the White vote that is destroying the GOP in states like CO and VA. Their poor showing among minorities doesn't help, but it's not the single most important factor.

WORD

lesson of this election:

minority vote kills GOP on the long run if they don't moderate their tone (there are galaxies between being sceptical about amnesty and talking about brown people like traitors) - but in the short run: the dems get killed, if they don't hold their share of the white vote/lose white votes faster than the white share of the electorate decreases.

[Person Man]

It's the White vote that is destroying the GOP in states like CO and VA. Their poor showing among minorities doesn't help, but it's not the single most important factor.

WORD

lesson of this election:

minority vote kills GOP on the long run if they don't moderate their tone (there are galaxies between being sceptical about amnesty and talking about brown people like traitors) - but in the short run: the dems get killed, if they don't hold their share of the white vote/lose white votes faster than the white share of the electorate decreases.

What is pretty crazy too is how Hillary is up there past 4% and still lost already 4 counties with just a 1.5% drop in support.

[5280]

Looks like Trump did win Pueblo county. New record broken, last time GOP won was in 1972.

http://pueblovotes.com/images/PCED/2016/General/ElectionSummaryReport_11_16_2016.pdf

[Person Man]

And with roughly the same margins as before.

[Lachi]

Looks like Trump did win Pueblo county. New record broken, last time GOP won was in 1972.

http://pueblovotes.com/images/PCED/2016/General/ElectionSummaryReport_11_16_2016.pdf

B-b-but muh Elliot county.

[Ban my account ffs!]

There are counties in MN that voted for Trump by hefty margins that have not voted GOP since 1928.

[ag]

But I thought the exit polls were wrong and Hispanics actually swung massively toward Clinton?

Pueblo county, despite its name, is less than 38% Hispanic (probably lower on VAP). The bulk of the rest is very, very white and not at all very educated. I would want to, at least, see a precinct map before coming to any rash conclusions.

[Person Man]

I will believe that the WWC swung Southern Colorado to Trump even if Trump made almost zero net inroads to Colorado over Romney. I guess in other parts of the state that have a large WWC yeomanry (you know, the guys with neckbeards who do alright. Aren't book smart but vote overwhelmingly Republican despite making some but not much money) but was offset by stronger showing my students, minorities, and "smart" people were places like Laramier County, where CSU/Fort Collins probably canceled out the Loveland, 287 north of Fort Collins, and 14, the road to Greeley.

[RI]

But I thought the exit polls were wrong and Hispanics actually swung massively toward Clinton?

Pueblo county, despite its name, is less than 38% Hispanic

42% Hispanic as of the 2014 ACS.

[Person Man]

There is definitely adifferent voting pattern between White Hispanics and mixed-race or non-white Hispanics.

[Person Man]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't a big part of the reason CO and NM have trended so strongly Democratic the White vote rather than the Hispanic vote? Republicans just don't get the margins they need among Whites in those states anymore. The minority vote doesn't help them ofc, but it's not the single most important reason why the Republicans have collapsed in those states.

Angry white women?

[hopper]

Well the 2014 US Senate Race was tight between Gardner and Udall in Pueblo County so it might not be a shock that Trump won it this time around.

[hopper]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't a big part of the reason CO and NM have trended so strongly Democratic the White vote rather than the Hispanic vote? Republicans just don't get the margins they need among Whites in those states anymore. The minority vote doesn't help them ofc, but it's not the single most important reason why the Republicans have collapsed in those states.

Yeah CO most of the White Vote has to do with "College Educated Whites" and CO Whites are a little more Dem than the rest of the White Vote nationally on the Presidential Level. Even if not for Hispanic Population Growth Dems still might be fairly competitive in CO I think.

NM-Nah the 2012 electorate there Hispanics made up 34% of the electorate. It has nothing to do with the White Vote on why Republicans don't win NM on the Presidential Level.