changes in party support for selected crosstabs according to the exit polls
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  changes in party support for selected crosstabs according to the exit polls
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Author Topic: changes in party support for selected crosstabs according to the exit polls  (Read 1333 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: November 12, 2016, 12:16:44 PM »
« edited: November 26, 2016, 10:22:14 AM by Mr. Morden »

Here’s my roundup of the shifts in party support from selected demographic groups, according to the 2012 and 2016 presidential exit polls.  E.g., when I write:

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what I mean is that, according to the exit polls, Clinton did 4 percentage points worse among men in 2016 than Obama did in 2012, while Trump did the same among men as Romney did, and the 3rd party candidates in ’16 did 4 points better among men than the ’12 3rd party candidates did.

Here’s a list:

men:
dem -4
gop 0 change
ind +4

women:
dem -1
gop -3
ind +4

age 18-29:
dem -5
gop -1
ind +6

age 30-44:
dem -1
gop -4
ind +5

age 45-64:
dem -3
gop +1
ind +2

age 65+:
dem +1
gop -4
ind +3

white
dem -2
gop -2
ind +4

black
dem -4
gop +2
ind +2

latino
dem -5
gop +1
ind +4

asian
dem -8
gop +1
ind +7

democrats
dem -3
gop +1
ind +2

republicans
dem +2
gop -5
ind +3

independents
dem -3
gop -4
ind +7

college graduate
dem +2
gop -6
ind +4

not college graduate
dem -7
gop +4
ind +3

under $50k
dem -7
gop +3
ind +4

$50-100k
dem 0 change
gop -3
ind +3

over $100k
dem +3
gop -7
ind +4

protestant
dem -3
gop -1
ind +4

catholic
dem -4
gop +2
ind +2

jewish
dem +2
gop -7
ind +5

Biggest gains for Clinton over Obama: incomes over $100k (+3)
Biggest losses for Clinton over Obama: Asians (-8)

Biggest gains for Trump over Romney: non-college graduates (+4)
Biggest losses for Trump over Romney: incomes over $100k, Jews (-4 for both)

Biggest gains for 2016 3rd parties over 2012 3rd parties: Asians, Independents (+7 for both)
Smallest gains for 2016 3rd parties over 2012 3rd parties: age 45-64, blacks, Democrats, Catholics (+2 for all)

Note that there is no demographic group for which the 3rd parties lost ground.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2016, 02:44:51 PM »

*bump*

Rather than starting a new thread on this, I’ll just post it here.  So, while Trump did win (at least in the electoral college), he also underperformed House Republicans nationally.  And we also have a national exit poll for House races:

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/house

so we can see which demographics Trump underperformed the most in.

Mormons
Trump +23 (16% 3rd party)
House GOP +49 (1% 3rd party)

Republicans
Trump +80 (4% 3rd party)
House GOP +90 (2% 3rd party)
[And furthermore, it looks like it’s more Republican women than Republican men that are the difference.  House GOP over House Dems is +91 among Republican women, but Republican women are only +79 for Trump over Clinton.]

postgraduate degree holders
Clinton +21 (5% 3rd party)
House Dems +13 (1% 3rd party)

And the demographic where Trump most significantly overperformed House Republicans:

household income under $50,000
Clinton +8 (6% 3rd party)
House Dems +14 (2% 3rd party)
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2016, 01:19:20 AM »

NYT shows this in one way or another in its exit polling (arrows to the right of each group compares margin to 4 years prior).

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html?_r=0
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2016, 09:02:06 AM »

NYT shows this in one way or another in its exit polling (arrows to the right of each group compares margin to 4 years prior).

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html?_r=0

Yeah, but I think that's just telling you the change in differential between the two parties, rather than the change in absolute support....which'll be a different answer, due to the increase in 3rd party support from 2012 to 2016.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2016, 05:21:36 AM »

these are the adjusted results? because some of those numbers are hella suspicious
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2016, 10:23:57 AM »

these are the adjusted results? because some of those numbers are hella suspicious

Yes.  Though it was the adjusted numbers a few days after the election, when there were some votes still being counted.  I've now updated the OP with the latest #s.
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Torie
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« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2016, 11:27:22 AM »

I assume none of this data reflects changes in turnout. At least in some places (e.g. Detroit), the black turnout at least was indeed down.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: November 26, 2016, 11:37:55 AM »

I assume none of this data reflects changes in turnout. At least in some places (e.g. Detroit), the black turnout at least was indeed down.

It's just the % change in the fraction of that demo that did indeed vote.  So no, it doesn't deal with the fact that some demos make up a different %age of the electorate than 4 years ago.  In the case of blacks, they were 13% of the electorate 4 years ago, and 12% of the electorate this year.
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