2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tenative rankings: Hopefully Chris Pappas runs against Sununu in NH

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Hopefully Chris Pappas runs against Sununu in NH

Lol, why? He'd make the race Lean D, whereas Shaheen, Kuster, Shea-Porter, etc. would all make it Likely or Safe D.

None of the people you listed have any desire or rational reason to run for NHGov

[Virginiá]

Select overview of races
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DKos: Republicans could see catastrophic losses in 2018's gubernatorial races if Trump sparks a backlash

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/3/8/1638381/-Republicans-could-see-catastrophic-losses-in-2018-s-gubernatorial-races-if-Trump-sparks-a-backlash

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Winning a gubernatorial race easily isn't a good enough reason? Like I said, I would expect Pappas or Van Ostern to win, but it wouldn't be as easy as with someone like Shaheen. Sununu isn't popular, a terrible fit for his state and an accidental governor anyway (we all know why he won in the first place). I certainly hope you guys are more competent this time and nominate the "right" candidate. I can't stand Sununu, plus he needs to be taken down before he can run against Jeanne Shaheen in 2020. Oh well, having CSP and Kuster on the ballot will certainly help.

Unless you mean Stefany Shaheen when you say Shaheen, CSP, Kuster, and Sen. Shaheen all have far more power in Congress than they would as NHGov.

Sure, they might win easily per your bizarre theory. But Governor of New Hampshire is a terrible position, especially if you don't flip the Exec Council. The most junior congresscritter has a far more enviable position than John Lynch did in 2012 having been gov for 8 years.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

^Of course I mean Stefany Shaheen. Jeanne Shaheen would be insane to give up her safe Senate seat. The NH Senate can definitely be flipped, even in a neutral year. The NH House would be a bit more difficult, but it's doable as well, especially if the GOP nominates terrible candidates across the board.

That DailyKos article is a bit misleading and hackish, though (no surprise given the source). Yes, Republicans could face "catastrophic" losses (although I think that's pretty unlikely), but people like Greg Abbott aren't going to lose just because Trump underperformed badly in their states. Gubernatorial races are much less partisan than Senate races, which is why someone like Mike Beebe is able to win by 30 points even as Blanche Lincoln loses by 21. Or think of John Bel Edwards, Jodi Rell, Arnold Schwarzenegger, etc.

Also: If presidential election margin were everything, Republicans would have a much harder time winning WI than KS. I doubt that will be the case on election day, though.

1) The NH house pretty much goes the way the state PV goes. Unless, like this year, the PV margin is razor thin. The State Senate is more heavily gerrymandered.

2) I didn't stay state leg, I said Exec Council. And that *is * pretty well gerrymandered. Maybe the 1st district swings if you don't put up someone like Cryans, but it's very hard for Dems to break through to a 3-2 split.

[MT Treasurer]

^Yes, but the NH House and Senate are just as important. And regarding the Executive Council... District 1 is clearly winnable for Democrats, Kenney only won by 5 points in 2016 and the district is trending Democratic. 3 and 5 are much harder to crack, but one of them could fall with the right candidate (and like District 1, they're trending D in the long term).

And regardless, Maggie Hassan always had sky-high approval ratings, even when the GOP controlled the State Leg and Executive Council. So it's not as if you have to be afraid of anything if a Democrat wins the gubernatorial race.

[Skill and Chance]

Tim Walz said he was "seriously considering" running for Governor at a town hall today.

He should stay in the House, just for the sake of holding down the seat for Democrats.

I would think holding the Governorship is more important than one House seat.

It really depends on a variety of factors. In this case, Walz seems nervous about losing his seat in 2018 considering he just barely scraped by last November. If he vacates his seat, it will be easier for Republicans to pick it up. I feel like MN has plenty of other decent candidates that could run instead, and Walz would be needed more in the House if that was the case.

The House is the Democrats only real shot at being a check on Trump/Republicans in 2019+, so we really can't afford to lose that seat. Odds are he will have a better year in 2018, given the dynamics of midterms.

If he's the best candidate for governor, he should run.  The legislature will be hard for Dems to get back as they are too dependent on legacy rural seats.  If a GOP governor is elected, they will lose 3 seats in 2022 guaranteed, 4 if Paulsen is defeated before redistricting.  At this point, it is possible to redistrict MN so that the only 2 Dem seats are downtown MSP.

[henster]

Tim Walz said he was "seriously considering" running for Governor at a town hall today.

He should stay in the House, just for the sake of holding down the seat for Democrats.

I would think holding the Governorship is more important than one House seat.

It really depends on a variety of factors. In this case, Walz seems nervous about losing his seat in 2018 considering he just barely scraped by last November. If he vacates his seat, it will be easier for Republicans to pick it up. I feel like MN has plenty of other decent candidates that could run instead, and Walz would be needed more in the House if that was the case.

The House is the Democrats only real shot at being a check on Trump/Republicans in 2019+, so we really can't afford to lose that seat. Odds are he will have a better year in 2018, given the dynamics of midterms.

If he's the best candidate for governor, he should run.  The legislature will be hard for Dems to get back as they are too dependent on legacy rural seats.  If a GOP governor is elected, they will lose 3 seats in 2022 guaranteed, 4 if Paulsen is defeated before redistricting.  At this point, it is possible to redistrict MN so that the only 2 Dem seats are downtown MSP.

And its a much better being a Governor than being in the irrelevant minority in the House.

[henster]

Connie Pillich is in for OH GOV, I actually think she'd be a better candidate than Sutton.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Connie Pillich is in for OH GOV, I actually think she'd be a better candidate than Sutton.

She would, but Schiavoni would probably be a better candidate than either of them (assuming he improves his fundraising).

[RogueBeaver]

CA: Garcetti keeps the door open, but hasn't he been boxed out already, Californians?

IL: Pritzker forms an exploratory committee.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Right now, as of now, we don't know what type of candidate Gwen Graham is.  So, I will go with Betty Sutton winning in Ohio before Graham

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Right now, as of now, we don't know what type of candidate Gwen Graham is.  So, I will go with Betty Sutton winning in Ohio before Graham

Err...Betty Sutton isn't even going to be the Democratic nominee in Ohio...

[publicunofficial]

MN-GOV: The Minnesota Star Tribune reports that Rep. Tim Walz is running, and "to expect an announcement soon."

Good news for holding the Governor seat, bad news for holding MN-01.

[MAINEiac4434]

MN-GOV: The Minnesota Star Tribune reports that Rep. Tim Walz is running, and "to expect an announcement soon."

Good news for holding the Governor seat, bad news for holding MN-01.

Goddammit Tim.

[KingSweden]

Have to imagine Nolan stays out in that case

Still think MN-08 would be a tougher open seat hold than MN-01. This is a surprise though - could it mean Swanson isn't getting in?

[Minnesota Mike]

Have to imagine Nolan stays out in that case

Still think MN-08 would be a tougher open seat hold than MN-01. This is a surprise though - could it mean Swanson isn't getting in?

Democrats are much stronger down ballot and have a deeper bench in MN-08 than in MN-01.  There have been 11 Distinct wide elections in MN-08 since 2012, Democrats have won 10 of them.

BTW very exited Walz is going to run for Governor even though I will lose my congressman. Strongest candidate by far IMO.  If Democrats lose the Governorship and Republicans gain the trifecta MN becomes the next Wisconsin.

[Gass3268]

MN-GOV: The Minnesota Star Tribune reports that Rep. Tim Walz is running, and "to expect an announcement soon."

Good news for holding the Governor seat, bad news for holding MN-01.

Holding on to MN-01 won't be impossible, especially in a Trumpterm.

[KingSweden]

Have to imagine Nolan stays out in that case

Still think MN-08 would be a tougher open seat hold than MN-01. This is a surprise though - could it mean Swanson isn't getting in?

Democrats are much stronger down ballot and have a deeper bench in MN-08 than in MN-01.  There have been 11 Distinct wide elections in MN-08 since 2012, Democrats have won 10 of them.

BTW very exited Walz is going to run for Governor even though I will lose my congressman. Strongest candidate by far IMO.  If Democrats lose the Governorship and Republicans gain the trifecta MN becomes the next Wisconsin.

So is word on the ground that Swanson is staying out, then? Thought she was the DFL juggernaut this time around

[Minnesota Mike]

Have to imagine Nolan stays out in that case

Still think MN-08 would be a tougher open seat hold than MN-01. This is a surprise though - could it mean Swanson isn't getting in?

Democrats are much stronger down ballot and have a deeper bench in MN-08 than in MN-01.  There have been 11 Distinct wide elections in MN-08 since 2012, Democrats have won 10 of them.

BTW very exited Walz is going to run for Governor even though I will lose my congressman. Strongest candidate by far IMO.  If Democrats lose the Governorship and Republicans gain the trifecta MN becomes the next Wisconsin.

So is word on the ground that Swanson is staying out, then? Thought she was the DFL juggernaut this time around

No word on Swanson but my guess is she still gets in.  She would be a solid candidate but I wouldn't use the term juggernaut. IMHO Walz would be a slight favorite over her for the nomination.

[publicunofficial]

CO-GOV: Ken Salazar is not running.

Looking more and more like the Ed Perlmutter show.

[Hindsight was 2020]

CO-GOV: Ken Salazar is not running.

Looking more and more like the Ed Perlmutter show.

Yesssssss

[KingSweden]

CO-GOV: Ken Salazar is not running.

Looking more and more like the Ed Perlmutter show.

Good. Perlmutter is the superior option anyhow

[The Other Castro]

CO-GOV: Ken Salazar is not running.

Looking more and more like the Ed Perlmutter show.

BUT Rep. Jared Polis is not ruling out a run:

"I haven’t ruled anything out and I’m not going to be rushed into a premature decision by today’s news."

[Zioneer]

CO-GOV: Ken Salazar is not running.

Looking more and more like the Ed Perlmutter show.

I hope Perlmutter wins in order to continue having Colorado governors with goofy names.