2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/11/joe_schiavoni_the_goal_is_to_r.html OH Sen Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni is all but in.

Unless Ryan runs...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/11/joe_schiavoni_the_goal_is_to_r.html OH Sen Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni is all but in.

Unless Ryan runs...

Yes, but why would you ever leave a safe as safe can be congressional seat? A few of my friends in Ohio have pointed this out to me when I've put Ryan forward.

He's an ambitious guy who is clearly getting frustrated with the lack of opportunities to move up in the House (hence his challenge to Pelosi).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

guy has a disgustingly trump-like communication style.

I also get the impression he'd rob me stupid if he got the chance.

This

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Connie Pillich is in for OH GOV, I actually think she'd be a better candidate than Sutton.

She would, but Schiavoni would probably be a better candidate than either of them (assuming he improves his fundraising).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Right now, as of now, we don't know what type of candidate Gwen Graham is.  So, I will go with Betty Sutton winning in Ohio before Graham

Err...Betty Sutton isn't even going to be the Democratic nominee in Ohio...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Democrat Scott Inman is the second candidate to announce a run for Oklahoma governor.

http://newsok.com/article/5546222

The first real Democratic candidate for Governor (the current field includes Connie Johnson, a failed gadfly).

I'm not sure if Inman can win, but Fallin under-performed in 2014 (and at certain points her opponent, State Rep Joe Dorman who is now making that pot money, was within single digits) and the economic and the trust situation in this state has only gotten worse. I think Inman has a non-zero chance of winning the Governorship.

It will help that the Republican field already looks like a bloodbath - candidates range from Congressman Jim Bridenstine (far right military veteran + will get most of the "muh conservative" support ala Club for Growth and Red State type institutions), Lieutenant Governor Todd Lamb (establishment choice), Ken Miller (slightly less charismatic establishment choice), and Gary Richardson (ex-Indie candidate who ran on "Roads, Bridges, and Prisons" and is very pro-Trump + is a money pit). And this excludes a potential surprise comeback from the Oklahoma politicos who always are speculated to run again for stuff (J.C. Watts, T.W. Shannon). Todd Lamb and Ken Miller are both as dull as a stack of blank pieces of paper, so if I had to guess, Bridenstine has the highest candidate quality and probably wins the primary - though Richardson could make things SPICEY sean style.

Wait...Bridenstine is the highest quality Republican candidate?  I'm not saying you're wrong, but that almost sounds like a "well he's the least bad" situation because Bridenstine's certainly no A-lister.  I'm glad Inman's running for Governor rather than AG because he always struck me as one of the better potential Democratic candidates (admittedly a low bar) and while he probably won't do it, I'd rather Drew Edmondson run for AG than Governor.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Democrat Scott Inman is the second candidate to announce a run for Oklahoma governor.

http://newsok.com/article/5546222

The first real Democratic candidate for Governor (the current field includes Connie Johnson, a failed gadfly).

I'm not sure if Inman can win, but Fallin under-performed in 2014 (and at certain points her opponent, State Rep Joe Dorman who is now making that pot money, was within single digits) and the economic and the trust situation in this state has only gotten worse. I think Inman has a non-zero chance of winning the Governorship.

It will help that the Republican field already looks like a bloodbath - candidates range from Congressman Jim Bridenstine (far right military veteran + will get most of the "muh conservative" support ala Club for Growth and Red State type institutions), Lieutenant Governor Todd Lamb (establishment choice), Ken Miller (slightly less charismatic establishment choice), and Gary Richardson (ex-Indie candidate who ran on "Roads, Bridges, and Prisons" and is very pro-Trump + is a money pit). And this excludes a potential surprise comeback from the Oklahoma politicos who always are speculated to run again for stuff (J.C. Watts, T.W. Shannon). Todd Lamb and Ken Miller are both as dull as a stack of blank pieces of paper, so if I had to guess, Bridenstine has the highest candidate quality and probably wins the primary - though Richardson could make things SPICEY sean style.

Wait...Bridenstine is the highest quality Republican candidate?  I'm not saying you're wrong, but that almost sounds like a "well he's the least bad" situation because Bridenstine's certainly no A-lister.  I'm glad Inman's running for Governor rather than AG because he always struck me as one of the better potential Democratic candidates (admittedly a low bar) and while he probably won't do it, I'd rather Drew Edmondson run for AG than Governor.

Bridenstine is more impressive than he looks - he faced a multi-million dollar primary campaign in 2016 and won with over 80% of the vote. He is on Trumps good side and he's on the good side of conservative activists - He's done a very good job of balancing the changes in the right ideologically. Also, some kind of military experience is always good here.

Certainly compared to Todd Lamb, who is a football guy and then went immediately into politics. Lamb will be hit hard with MUH CAREER POLITICIAN ADS, while Bridenstine gets to run as CONSISTENT CONSTITUTIONAL CONSERVATIVE. (Bridenstine would certainly suck the air out of the room for a potential TW Shannon run or some other archconservative)

Huh.  Well at least Inman seems like a solid recruit.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The lack of recruitment on behalf of Michigan Democrats is concerning.

Gretchen Whitmer is a strong recruit.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

MI-GOV: Mark Hackel tweeted out the article 'Democrats create opening for Hackel in gov race'.

https://twitter.com/MarkHackel/status/870346972653289472

Gross.  I don't trust Hackel at all!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

MI: Bernstein out.

Any chance he runs for MI AG?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not a gubernatorial election, but John Barrow is running for GA SoS:

http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2017/09/25/barrow-aims-for-a-political-comeback-with-bid-for-georgia-statewide-office/

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

For somewhat distant gubernatorial races (but still relevant), Eric Greitens has a 41% approval rating in that Republican poll. Kind of jives with what I've seen in the state. I know of several Trump-curious people who hate Greitens. Problem is, the Democratic bench in the state is weak.

My best friend at law school is from Ladue (a conservative, fairly racist suburb of St. Louis which happens to also have a higher median household income than any other city in the state) whose friends from Missouri are almost all very right-wing Republicans* and he says that the opinions of most Republicans (including hardcore Trumpists) he knows in suburban St. Louis regarding Grietens range from "meh, that guy seems sketchy but I can live with him" to "seriously, f*** that guy, he's incompetent and only cares about running for President."  This anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt, but I think Grietens could actually have some real trouble if the Democrats can recruit a strong candidate in 2020 (Kander might work, but he's been on TV a lot and could be painted as having become a media talking head, so we might want someone new).  Grietens seems to have had a pretty rough year as Governor while simultaneously going Full Jindal before he even won re-election.

*IDK if it's just Ladue, but I think Democrats have a bit of a heavier lift in Missouri if what he's said is true than many other states.  It sounds like Kansas City's suburbs (in Missouri and especially Kansas, which apparently has the more educated/affluent portions of the Kansas City metro for the most part) are already filled with Republicans planning to vote Democratic for Congress because of Trump (and that was before SALT) which is part of why I'm bullish on our chances in KS-3 with Neidermann despite Yoder being a strong incumbent.  However, if my friend is to be believed (and I suspect he's right about this), it sounds like due to out-of-control racial tensions** the white suburbanites in the Republican parts of St. Louis County aren't swinging quite has hard against the GOP as most suburbs and Trump's race-baiting schtick still works pretty well in the St. Louis suburbs in a way it doesn't in most other suburbs outside of the cultural south (KC, MO and the St. Louis metro aren't really culturally southern the way somewhere like the bootheel is).  While it might not matter as much in turnout-driven special elections, it probably means Wagner isn't going anywhere despite the Democrats having at least one unexpectedly decent candidate running here and could also be a problem for McCaskill, come to think of it.

**Mainly due to a collection of fringe local activists claiming to be part of the Black Lives Matter movement despite having few actual ties to it and the suburban police departments actively  going out of there way to harass/threaten random suburban whites and African-Americans respectively for pretty much no reason beyond tit-for-tat games.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Speaking of Missouri, does anyone know about the MO Dem Party chair Stephen Webber? He's served in the state house in the past, and under his watch the Dems nearly won multiple statewide offices despite Trump's megacoattails in the presidential race. He's also young, attractive, and was a sergeant in the Marine Corps. Electorally he strikes me as a Kander 2.0 just in case the original screws up somewhere along the way

Webber lost a campaign in 2016 for a state senate seat that Hillary Clinton actually won, so that doesn't bode too well for him. He actually wasn't party chairman until after the November 2016 elections. In any case, he'd probably be a B-list challenger to BDSM-loving Erotic Eric and would honestly probably beat him. I think Greitens is DOA in a general election now against an able Democrat.

Greitens isn’t gonna make it through the primary, methinks.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/988572013651480578

It's funny because it's true.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

MA: Warren drops out.

Forgot what thread this was and was immensely confused.

Same