2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread

[Maxwell]

Florida Dems gonna Florida Dem?

Politics1.com ‏@Politics1com  4m4 minutes ago
FLORIDA: Outgoing Cong Patrick Murphy (D), who lost US Sen run, says he wants "to keep all options on the table" about poss 2018 Gov run.

Murphy didn't run a good statewide campaign, he shouldn't run for governor. If he wants back in politics, though, he should run for his house seat again. He seems pretty popular in his district, and a republican just won his seat. He could beat Mast, especially if the midterm is rough for Trump and Republicans.

Either that or one of the lower statewide offices - Maybe CFO or Agriculture Comissioner.

And to answer the question asked if he won his own district - no, he did not. He did worse than Clinton in both of the notable counties in the district, and Clinton only barely out-performed Perkins.

[Maxwell]

I was expecting Republicans to at least try to knock off Laxalt - he wasn't even qualified for the job he ran for and won in 2014!

[Maxwell]

It seems Nevada Republicans, as expected, will run away from the remarkably popular Brian Sandoval legacy.

Dems have an opportunity here!

[Maxwell]

Is Tim Herbst unpopular with the GOP establishment? He strikes me as an incredibly capable person but also kind of an a-hole. I'd be surprised if they just let him skate to the nomination.

[Maxwell]

rofl lmao what a loser

[Maxwell]

guy has a disgustingly trump-like communication style.

I also get the impression he'd rob me stupid if he got the chance.

[Maxwell]

Gilium is also terrible and Democrats better get a better candidate (they likely will)

[Maxwell]

CO: Ken Salazar will decide this summer.

I think we can file this under "can we not?"

[Maxwell]

Nolan is a great fit for his district he should not just give the seat to Stewart Mills.

Walz is fine and his district is perfectly winnable for a non-Walz Democrat.

[Maxwell]

GA: Cagle in.

Why didn't he run for the open seat in 2010?

I think he did run for a while but then dropped out.

[Maxwell]

Breaking, per WMUR:

Ex-Rep. Paul Hodes is considering for NH-Gov

oh god please no. Yes I'm aware 2010 was a broad based disaster for Democrats but my god Hodes is a disaster.

[Maxwell]

Democrat Scott Inman is the second candidate to announce a run for Oklahoma governor.

http://newsok.com/article/5546222

The first real Democratic candidate for Governor (the current field includes Connie Johnson, a failed gadfly).

I'm not sure if Inman can win, but Fallin under-performed in 2014 (and at certain points her opponent, State Rep Joe Dorman who is now making that pot money, was within single digits) and the economic and the trust situation in this state has only gotten worse. I think Inman has a non-zero chance of winning the Governorship.

It will help that the Republican field already looks like a bloodbath - candidates range from Congressman Jim Bridenstine (far right military veteran + will get most of the "muh conservative" support ala Club for Growth and Red State type institutions), Lieutenant Governor Todd Lamb (establishment choice), Ken Miller (slightly less charismatic establishment choice), and Gary Richardson (ex-Indie candidate who ran on "Roads, Bridges, and Prisons" and is very pro-Trump + is a money pit). And this excludes a potential surprise comeback from the Oklahoma politicos who always are speculated to run again for stuff (J.C. Watts, T.W. Shannon). Todd Lamb and Ken Miller are both as dull as a stack of blank pieces of paper, so if I had to guess, Bridenstine has the highest candidate quality and probably wins the primary - though Richardson could make things SPICEY sean style.

[Maxwell]

Democrat Scott Inman is the second candidate to announce a run for Oklahoma governor.

http://newsok.com/article/5546222

The first real Democratic candidate for Governor (the current field includes Connie Johnson, a failed gadfly).

I'm not sure if Inman can win, but Fallin under-performed in 2014 (and at certain points her opponent, State Rep Joe Dorman who is now making that pot money, was within single digits) and the economic and the trust situation in this state has only gotten worse. I think Inman has a non-zero chance of winning the Governorship.

It will help that the Republican field already looks like a bloodbath - candidates range from Congressman Jim Bridenstine (far right military veteran + will get most of the "muh conservative" support ala Club for Growth and Red State type institutions), Lieutenant Governor Todd Lamb (establishment choice), Ken Miller (slightly less charismatic establishment choice), and Gary Richardson (ex-Indie candidate who ran on "Roads, Bridges, and Prisons" and is very pro-Trump + is a money pit). And this excludes a potential surprise comeback from the Oklahoma politicos who always are speculated to run again for stuff (J.C. Watts, T.W. Shannon). Todd Lamb and Ken Miller are both as dull as a stack of blank pieces of paper, so if I had to guess, Bridenstine has the highest candidate quality and probably wins the primary - though Richardson could make things SPICEY sean style.

Wait...Bridenstine is the highest quality Republican candidate?  I'm not saying you're wrong, but that almost sounds like a "well he's the least bad" situation because Bridenstine's certainly no A-lister.  I'm glad Inman's running for Governor rather than AG because he always struck me as one of the better potential Democratic candidates (admittedly a low bar) and while he probably won't do it, I'd rather Drew Edmondson run for AG than Governor.

Bridenstine is more impressive than he looks - he faced a multi-million dollar primary campaign in 2016 and won with over 80% of the vote. He is on Trumps good side and he's on the good side of conservative activists - He's done a very good job of balancing the changes in the right ideologically. Also, some kind of military experience is always good here.

Certainly compared to Todd Lamb, who is a football guy and then went immediately into politics. Lamb will be hit hard with MUH CAREER POLITICIAN ADS, while Bridenstine gets to run as CONSISTENT CONSTITUTIONAL CONSERVATIVE. (Bridenstine would certainly suck the air out of the room for a potential TW Shannon run or some other archconservative)

[Maxwell]

Democrat Scott Inman is the second candidate to announce a run for Oklahoma governor.

http://newsok.com/article/5546222

The first real Democratic candidate for Governor (the current field includes Connie Johnson, a failed gadfly).

I'm not sure if Inman can win, but Fallin under-performed in 2014 (and at certain points her opponent, State Rep Joe Dorman who is now making that pot money, was within single digits) and the economic and the trust situation in this state has only gotten worse. I think Inman has a non-zero chance of winning the Governorship.

It will help that the Republican field already looks like a bloodbath - candidates range from Congressman Jim Bridenstine (far right military veteran + will get most of the "muh conservative" support ala Club for Growth and Red State type institutions), Lieutenant Governor Todd Lamb (establishment choice), Ken Miller (slightly less charismatic establishment choice), and Gary Richardson (ex-Indie candidate who ran on "Roads, Bridges, and Prisons" and is very pro-Trump + is a money pit). And this excludes a potential surprise comeback from the Oklahoma politicos who always are speculated to run again for stuff (J.C. Watts, T.W. Shannon). Todd Lamb and Ken Miller are both as dull as a stack of blank pieces of paper, so if I had to guess, Bridenstine has the highest candidate quality and probably wins the primary - though Richardson could make things SPICEY sean style.

Wait...Bridenstine is the highest quality Republican candidate?  I'm not saying you're wrong, but that almost sounds like a "well he's the least bad" situation because Bridenstine's certainly no A-lister.  I'm glad Inman's running for Governor rather than AG because he always struck me as one of the better potential Democratic candidates (admittedly a low bar) and while he probably won't do it, I'd rather Drew Edmondson run for AG than Governor.

Bridenstine is more impressive than he looks - he faced a multi-million dollar primary campaign in 2016 and won with over 80% of the vote. He is on Trumps good side and he's on the good side of conservative activists - He's done a very good job of balancing the changes in the right ideologically. Also, some kind of military experience is always good here.

Certainly compared to Todd Lamb, who is a football guy and then went immediately into politics. Lamb will be hit hard with MUH CAREER POLITICIAN ADS, while Bridenstine gets to run as CONSISTENT CONSTITUTIONAL CONSERVATIVE. (Bridenstine would certainly suck the air out of the room for a potential TW Shannon run or some other archconservative)

Huh.  Well at least Inman seems like a solid recruit.

There is no perfect Democrat candidate that hasn't already served two terms for Governor (Brad Henry) or sadly got beat for State Senate last year (John Waldron, a teacher and genuinely great guy), but Inman is solid and Oklahoma is becoming like a mini-Kansas situation where people are getting incredibly upset over their handling of the budget.

[Maxwell]

And Gary Richardson, the Independent Candidate for Oklahoma Governor in 2002, multiple time congressional candidate, and general fake populist, has entered the race for Oklahoma Governor 16 years after his first bout. Richardson his first time on a platform of infrastructure improvements and more prisons, and I suspect his platform will be of similar right of center populism. This will probably contrast nicely with the generic GOP platitudes of Todd Lamb or muh constitutional conservatism of Bridenstine.

Richardson is a money pit, but he probably won't win - the GOP establishment will do their best to halt his nomination because I suspect he owes no loyalties to Governor Fallin and will probably bash her failed record, and they're pretty good at getting who they want. Still, I'm getting my popcorn out because this GOP primary is going to be a bloodbath.

[Maxwell]

Biggest news though: Tommy Tuberville will NOT run for Governor of Alabama, a sign of increasing coalescing around Governor Kay Ivey. I'm beginning she'll get some novelty challenge in the primary and then sail through the general election in a bigger landslide than either time Bentley ran. Not exactly a good sign for downballot Alabama Dems, but then again, has anything good ever happened to downballot Alabama Dems in the last twenty or thirty years?

[Maxwell]

Tommy Battle is announcing a run for Alabama Governor, giving us our first potential challenge of Governor Kay Ivey (should she choose to run for a whole term).

[Maxwell]

ugh what a waste of time - Edmondson already ran and lost in the primary 8 years ago and is now 70 years old. Sadly, I think Edmondson will probably win the primary this time - Scott Inman and Connie Johnson both have less starting name recognition than Jari Askins did - and Edmondson, thanks to his famous name (his dad was a Senator), will probably dominate among Dem money interests because all they care about is LEGACY NAMES.

Edmondson will probably lose to some younger Republican in the general because they can still connect him to muh establishment/muh Obama. I genuinely think Scott Inman is a better candidate because he's a less known figure and more passionate, which means he can better run as a Different Democrat than the Democrats Oklahomans hate.

[Maxwell]

I mean absolutely but Russell is a fairly acceptable Republican for that kind of district. Inman would be an improvement over Tom Guild and Al McAfrey, who have been running back and forth against one another in the primary and both lost by more than Obama and Clinton lost in OK-5. I hope Russell is the kind of MUH TERM LIMITS incumbent that will retire by 2020, but I'm not so sure of that.

[Maxwell]

Yeah Russell seems like the least bad OK Rep

He definitely is. Oklahoma seems to have a diverse coalition of Republicans - Permanently bored businessman (Mullin), CONSTITUTIONAL CONSERVATIVE (Bridenstine), permanent boring insider (Cole), man whose own grandma couldn't tell you his name (Lucas), and highly decorated veteran Steve Russell of Oklahoma's 5th. Russell ran as very conservative, and I expected his tenure to be more along the lines of Bridenstine's voting record, but he's turned out to be a relative moderate considering the Oklahoma delegation. Russell has a lot going for him, and I'd be surprised if he ever lost to a Democrat. OK-5 is probably his as long as he wants it.

[Maxwell]

I have rated OK-GOV Likely R. Isn't Fallin relatively unpopular?

Yes, and it's getting worse. And that's not all - The Republican is being tainted by Republican State Rep after Republican State Rep falling to corruption/sex scandals + Republicans continuing to have the same budget problems year after year drastically cutting public education and healthcare (hospitals are going bankrupt). 2016 was a saving grace for a lot of state Republicans, as most close races were pulled away by Dr. Donald Trump, but I think 2018, a year where unenthusiastic Republicans probably won't turn out, I think Democrats at least have the chances to make solid gains in the State House and Senate, and at most take the Governorship - especially if someone linked to Governor Fallin's hip is chosen. I'd give Democrats about a 5-10% chance of winning the Governorship, which puts it at about Likely R.

[Maxwell]

I have rated OK-GOV Likely R. Isn't Fallin relatively unpopular?

I was fairly confident that Pruitt was going to be the next Governor of Oklahoma until he was nominated to the EPA.

Unfortunately yes Pruitt was looking like a strong contender for Governor of Oklahoma until that nomination.

[Maxwell]

uhh... Chris Kennedy's campaign is not going well so far. Rumor is some Dems are asking him to drop out.

[Maxwell]

Iowa State Rep. Todd Prichard (D) Running for Governor.

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https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/iowa/articles/2017-05-16/iowa-state-rep-todd-richard-running-for-governor

wow what a crowded field.

[Maxwell]

I don't know Minnesota Republicans beyond the kooky ones, the RINO ones, and ugh Norm Coleman; was Stanek considered a good potential candidate or a wacko?