Jimmie's 2018 Senate Predictions

[jamestroll]

Early serious prediction: Republicans are likely to retain control even if narrow.

Other predictions:

1) Democrats will win in seats that they garner votes than Republicans in. Likewise, Republicans will win seats that they win the popular vote in.

2) One or two endangered incumbents may win re-election and/or blow out.

3) One or two seemingly safe incumbents, will lose.

4) There will be one or two hyped races that the challenger comes out short in.

I am just posting this because everyone seems to be making very confident predictions.. more confident than I have ever seen in the past. We really have no idea what will happen the next two years.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, making predictions at this point is pretty useless. But keep in mind that if all those red and swing state Democrats filibuster Trump's SCOTUS nominee, it might backfire spectacularly on them in 2018. We could have a NY-SEN 1998 redux in several states.

Well, thanks to Maggie Hassan's and Tammy Duckworth's wins, Manchin, Heitkamp, Tester, Donnelly, McCaskill, Brown (who needs to behave like he's in a red state now), and one other random person can all feel free to vote for every nominee Trump puts forward for anything and it won't make a difference.  Also, Heller and Flake (and maybe even Cruz) should be very nervous about confirming anyone with strong anti-immigrant views.

That's only a factor as long as the SCOTUS filibuster is still around. McConnell might keep it as long as there's only Scalia's seat to fill. But if the chance opens up to get an anti-Roe majority in the court (Breyer, Ginsburg, or Kennedy die/retire) - which I suspect will happen - expect McConnell to nix it immediately.

[swf541]

Yeah, making predictions at this point is pretty useless. But keep in mind that if all those red and swing state Democrats filibuster Trump's SCOTUS nominee, it might backfire spectacularly on them in 2018. We could have a NY-SEN 1998 redux in several states.

Well, thanks to Maggie Hassan's and Tammy Duckworth's wins, Manchin, Heitkamp, Tester, Donnelly, McCaskill, Brown (who needs to behave like he's in a red state now), and one other random person can all feel free to vote for every nominee Trump puts forward for anything and it won't make a difference.  Also, Heller and Flake (and maybe even Cruz) should be very nervous about confirming anyone with strong anti-immigrant views.

That's only a factor as long as the SCOTUS filibuster is still around. McConnell might keep it as long as there's only Scalia's seat to fill. But if the chance opens up to get an anti-Roe majority in the court (Breyer, Ginsburg, or Kennedy die/retire) - which I suspect will happen - expect McConnell to nix it immediately.

Question would be how many gop defect to block said removal of filibuster

[jamestroll]

Ha ha ha.. I bet my predictions will come true ha ha

[Heisenberg]

Yeah, making predictions at this point is pretty useless. But keep in mind that if all those red and swing state Democrats filibuster Trump's SCOTUS nominee, it might backfire spectacularly on them in 2018. We could have a NY-SEN 1998 redux in several states.

Well, thanks to Maggie Hassan's and Tammy Duckworth's wins, Manchin, Heitkamp, Tester, Donnelly, McCaskill, Brown (who needs to behave like he's in a red state now), and one other random person can all feel free to vote for every nominee Trump puts forward for anything and it won't make a difference.  Also, Heller and Flake (and maybe even Cruz) should be very nervous about confirming anyone with strong anti-immigrant views.

LOL at Brown voting for conservative nominees.

And do I need to start worrying about Democrats snatching Ted Cruz's seat?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, making predictions at this point is pretty useless. But keep in mind that if all those red and swing state Democrats filibuster Trump's SCOTUS nominee, it might backfire spectacularly on them in 2018. We could have a NY-SEN 1998 redux in several states.

Well, thanks to Maggie Hassan's and Tammy Duckworth's wins, Manchin, Heitkamp, Tester, Donnelly, McCaskill, Brown (who needs to behave like he's in a red state now), and one other random person can all feel free to vote for every nominee Trump puts forward for anything and it won't make a difference.  Also, Heller and Flake (and maybe even Cruz) should be very nervous about confirming anyone with strong anti-immigrant views.

LOL at Brown voting for conservative nominees.

And do I need to start worrying about Democrats snatching Ted Cruz's seat?

No.

[BuckeyeNut]

Yeah, making predictions at this point is pretty useless. But keep in mind that if all those red and swing state Democrats filibuster Trump's SCOTUS nominee, it might backfire spectacularly on them in 2018. We could have a NY-SEN 1998 redux in several states.

Yeah, because it really hurt the GOP this time around.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

States to watch is Brown's seat and Heller's seat.

The Fillibuster will be around because Ginnsberg will now stick around until 2020 and she has recovered from cancer. The Dems will allow the Scalia vacancy to be filled which will keep the court like it was.

[2016]

The Democrats face pretty long odds in 2018. Realistically they have only two takeover chances in AZ & NV. The other Seats like TX, NE, TN, MS, UT and WY are safe R in a MidTerm Year.

Per CNN Exits GWB had 43/57 JA on Election Day 2006 nationally and while the Democrats took Congress that year they still couldn't win in TN (Ford lost to Corker), AZ (Pedersen lost to Kyl) and NV (Carter lost to Ensign). The Map was much more favorable to D's as well back then.

Democrats would need to hope Trumps JA hovers at 40% or lower to hold their vulnerable Seats in R-lean States.

[jamestroll]

The Democrats face pretty long odds in 2018. Realistically they have only two takeover chances in AZ & NV. The other Seats like TX, NE, TN, MS, UT and WY are safe R in a MidTerm Year.

Per CNN Exits GWB had 43/57 JA on Election Day 2006 nationally and while the Democrats took Congress that year they still couldn't win in TN (Ford lost to Corker), AZ (Pedersen lost to Kyl) and NV (Carter lost to Ensign). The Map was much more favorable to D's as well back then.

Democrats would need to hope Trumps JA hovers at 40% or lower to hold their vulnerable Seats in R-lean States.

My whole point is that, it is too early to predict anything meaningful right now. A lot of Democrats seem convinced that they will pick up AZ, NV and even TX plus hold all their own. Of course, a significant chunk of Democrats are pessimistic and many Republicans are predicting that people like Manchin, Donnelley, and McCaskill won't reach even 35% of the vote.

With a Republican in the White House, it might be easier for Democrats to hold a lot of these heavily Republican states in the Senate. Even in the pro-gop 2002 year, it was not a GOP blow out.

[Kingpoleon]

Yeah, making predictions at this point is pretty useless. But keep in mind that if all those red and swing state Democrats filibuster Trump's SCOTUS nominee, it might backfire spectacularly on them in 2018. We could have a NY-SEN 1998 redux in several states.

Well, thanks to Maggie Hassan's and Tammy Duckworth's wins, Manchin, Heitkamp, Tester, Donnelly, McCaskill, Brown (who needs to behave like he's in a red state now), and one other random person can all feel free to vote for every nominee Trump puts forward for anything and it won't make a difference.  Also, Heller and Flake (and maybe even Cruz) should be very nervous about confirming anyone with strong anti-immigrant views.

Sasse, Murkowski, and definitely Collins may have a say, too.

[libertpaulian]

Yeah, making predictions at this point is pretty useless. But keep in mind that if all those red and swing state Democrats filibuster Trump's SCOTUS nominee, it might backfire spectacularly on them in 2018. We could have a NY-SEN 1998 redux in several states.

Yeah, because it really hurt the GOP this time around.

SCOTUS was hardly made an issue in this election due to the nature of Trump's candidacy.  If Cruz, Rubio, or Kasich was the GOP nominee, the Dems would have given the GOP hell about filibustering Garland.