Bigger election upset: 1948 or 2016

[OSR stands with Israel]

I say its about even

[Sumner 1868]

1948. Not even Truman's loudest supporters thought he would win.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

1948. Not even Truman's loudest supporters thought he would win.

[buritobr]

If you consider the national margin, and not the winner, 1980 was a bigger upset than 2016. In 2016, the average of the polls was showing that Hillary Clinton would have a 3% margin in the national popular vote. She had 0.5%. A difference of 2.5%. Inside the margin of error. In 1980, the average of the polls was showing that Ronald Reagan would have a 3% margin in the national popular vote. He had 10%. A difference of 7%.

[jaichind]

In retrospect I would say 2016.  If they had done polling the last week before the 1948 election then it would be clear that Truman could and might be likely to win.  But they did not so relative to expectations I think 1948 is still the bigger shock.

[Mr. Smith]

1948.

2016 was always seen, even with the debates, as an election that could go either way with Hillary simply more likely.

Truman winning would've been like Romney actually winning 2012. Close looking, but no visible budges.

[Figueira]

2016 was only a small upset on election day, although compared to right after the tapes came out it was huge.