My early ratings for the 2018 Senate races

[Xing]

I know other people have done this, but I thought I'd give my two cents on preliminary ratings.

Arizona: Since we're looking at a President Trump, Flake is looking more vulnerable than before, especially since he'll have to continue to struggle with how much to distance himself from Trump, not to mention he'll have a voting record that may tell a different story. Arizona is clearly a state that still leans Republican, but there's definitely a Democratic trend. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now, but it's definitely a race to watch.
Tilt/Lean R

California: Feinstein may retire, which would make the primary quite interesting. Regardless of what happens, this race is very safe for the Democrats.
Safe D

Connecticut: Murphy has little to worry about.
Safe D

Delaware: Carper is quite popular, and Delaware is dark blue.
Safe D

Florida: Nelson has been fortunate to have relatively weak opponents in his previous bids, and he might not get as lucky this time. Carlos Curbelo in particular is someone to watch, though it's unclear how well he'd do in a statewide race. Considering that this will be a Republican midterm, Nelson is likely facing a more favorable environment than he would if Clinton had won. For now...
Lean D

Hawaii: Hirono will be fine.
Safe D

Indiana: Donnelly is running in a tough state, and while he has some cross-over appeal, his popularity and name recognition leave room for improvement. A lot will depend on who his opponent is, and what kind of voting record he develops over the next two years.
Toss-Up

Maine: Angus King's fate likely depends on which opponents he faces from which party. If the Democrats do not challenge him, and he only faces a Republican opponent, he'll probably be fine, but a three-way race would make things very interesting. Overall...
Likely I/D

Maryland: Cardin isn't particularly popular, and is another potential retirement, but unless Anthony Brown runs for this seat, Democrats don't have much cause for concern, and even then, maybe not.
Safe D

Massachusetts: Warren will win re-election by a great deal more than her first election, even against a decent opponent.
Safe D

Michigan: While Trump's narrow win in Michigan is certainly cause for concern for Democrats in this state going forward, Stabenow probably won't be too vulnerable, especially given the fact that the bench for Republicans in Michigan isn't great.
Likely D

Minnesota: This seat is Klobuchar's for as long as she wants it.
Safe D

Mississippi: Wicker has made some questionable votes, which would definitely make him a top target... if he were running in a state that Democrats could win.
Safe R

Missouri: McCaskill is definitely among the most vulnerable Democrats, though it does seem she'll again be fortunate enough to have at least a decent national environment, if not quite a good one. She's not particularly popular, but she's not to be underestimated when it comes to campaigning. Ann Wagner would be a formidable opponent, but she'll probably be facing a competitive primary.
Toss-Up/Tilt R

Montana: Tester has survived two tough races, and again, a lot will depend on who he faces this time around. Montana is kinder to Democrats at the statewide level, and while Zinke could give him a run for his money, a neutral to good environment probably gives Tester a narrow edge.
Toss-Up/Tilt D

Nebraska: Fischer has little to worry about, especially since Brad Ashford was taken out this year.
Safe R

Nevada: Heller has to be nervous about the fact that Trump and Heck both lost here, despite Republicans overperforming their polls and expectations nearly everywhere else. While Democrats have to find the right opponent, it's clear that this state is getting harder and harder for Republicans, and especially if Trump is unpopular in 2018, Heller is going to have a tough battle ahead of him.
Tilt/Lean D

New Jersey: The biggest question here is whether or not Menendez retires. If he doesn't, Democrats could very well try to primary him. The only path to victory for Republicans probably involves Menendez running, surviving a primary, and being plagued by his scandals from that point on.
Likely D

New Mexico: Heinrich's only concern should be Gov. Susanna Martinez. She could make this race competitive in an instant. Otherwise, he'll have no cause for concern. Overall...
Likely D

New York: Gillibrand will win easily.
Safe D

North Dakota: Heitkamp is another clearly endangered Senator, and Trump's 37-point win here suggests she has every reason to be nervous. Again, it all depends on her opponent, but she may have a hard time fighting the political winds in this state, which blow dark red, even more so than in states like Missouri and Indiana.
Toss-Up/Tilt R

Ohio: Watching Ohio go for Trump by such an enormous margin must have made Brown uneasy. Still, he'll be facing a different climate in 2018, and could face Josh Mandel again, which would significantly help his chances.
Toss-Up

Pennsylvania: Casey should definitely have learned his lesson from 2012, and Trump and Toomey's wins here should make it clear that he can't sleepwalk through this re-election bid. Republicans still have to find the right candidate, and may not end up with someone ideal.
Lean D

Rhode Island: Whitehouse is safe.
Safe D

Tennessee: Democrats would have a better chance of winning a Senate race in Russia than in Tennessee. Corker will be fine.
Safe R

Texas: Cruz might face a primary challenge, and has had a very difficult time figuring out how to deal with Trump. It's hard to see how Democrats can make an opening for themselves here, but if 2018 does start to look like a wave, and Trump is truly toxic, this could become a sleeper race, especially if they work to increase turnout. For now, though, it's hard to see Democrats competing here in a meaningful way.
Safe R

Utah: Hatch will probably retire, but Democrats face extremely long odds here, even if Matheson runs.
Safe R

Vermont: Sanders is beloved in Vermont, and could be the least vulnerable incumbent of this cycle.
Safe I/D

Virginia: Democrats don't have to worry about a special election here, and Kaine is reasonably well-liked. Given the trend in Virginia, it's hard to see him losing without facing headwinds of some kind.
Likely D

Washington: While Reichert or McKenna could make this race a bit closer than it would be otherwise, Senate races are pretty much unwinnable for Republicans here, and Cantwell is even more popular than Murray.
Safe D

West Virginia: This race will be interesting. Manchin might be able to find a path to victory the way Justice did, especially given that he's still well-liked in the state, and won't have to run under a Democratic president. Still, the hour is late for Democrats in West Virginia.
Toss-Up/Tilt D

Wisconsin: Baldwin doesn't have stellar approval ratings or name recognition, but Republicans also have to find the right opponent to face her. While the past two midterms were great for Republicans in this state, the trend of Democratic success in presidential years snapped this year, so the midterm trend could be broken just as easily in 2018. Democrats took the state for granted this year, and paid a heavy price for it. Odds are, they'll learn their lesson, and come prepared for a fight here.
Lean D

Wyoming: Barrasso is safe.
Safe R

[Figueira]

I don't agree with everything on here, but overall it seems reasonable. I will say that I'm pretty sure Martinez won't run and Heinrich is therefore safe.