(Very) early 2020 Senate predictions.

[Senator Cris]

There's a thread on 2022, so why not one on 2020?

[windjammer]

Assuming Collins runs for reelection, Udall wins the NM gubernational election, Warner and Cochran retire:
Toss up: NC, CO
Lean Dem: VA
Lean rep: IA
Likely rep : MS, TX, GA, MT, AK
Likely dem: NM

[PAK Man]

Alabama - Safe R (Sessions, or whichever Republican holds this seat, assuming he goes in Trump's administration, won't have any trouble here)

Alaska - Leans R (Sullivan just barely won, and the possibility of either Begich or Berkowitz running keeps this seat in the potentially-competitive column)

Arkansas - Safe R (Cotton can have this for as long as he wants it)

Colorado - Tossup (Colorado's rapidly-changing demographics plus the fact this will be held during a presidential year probably spell trouble for Gardner, but it depends on who runs)

Delaware - Safe D (Coons is safe)

Georgia - Likely R (By 2020, Dems might actually be seriously targeting Georgia. Don't know who would run here, though)

Idaho - Safe R (I predict Risch will retire, but that shouldn't be a problem for the GOP to hold it. If Democrats target any race in Idaho, it should be superintendent of public instruction, which they've come pretty close to winning a few times over the past decade)

Illinois - Safe D (Durbin may retire - if he doesn't run and win the governor race - but the GOP doesn't have much of a bench in the state. Plus whichever Dem runs will easily carry Illinois)

Iowa - Leans R (Ernst seems decently well-liked, and Democrats lack a strong bench, but if Dems can get a candidate Iowans really like, that could spell trouble for her)

Kansas - Safe R (Strongly suspect Roberts will retire, especially after his close call which shouldn't have even been a close call. Democrats have virtually no bench here)

Kentucky - Likely R (Depending on how unpopular Trump is, and if Democrats can convince Adam Edelen, Andy Beshear or maybe even John Yarmuth to run, this could be competitive. I personally doubt McConnell retires)

Louisiana - Safe R (Cassidy's safe)

Maine - Safe R (There are rumors that Collins will run for governor, but I'll buy it when I see it. If she does end up stepping aside, I'd expect Bruce Poliquin to run here. Automatic tossup if she steps aside, though I don't anticipate that happening)

Massachusetts - Safe D (Markey doesn't have a problem here)

Michigan - Safe D (I think what happened in Michigan this year was more a reflection that state's dissatisfaction with Clinton than Democrats in general. Peters was also one of Democrats' few bright spots in 2014. I think he's fine)

Minnesota - Safe D (Seems like Franken just gets safer every election cycle)

Mississippi - Safe R (Cochran will for sure retire, but that won't mean much for Democrats. It'll be interesting to see the Republican primary play out, though)

Montana - Likely R (Democrats might be able to get Bullock to run here, as he'll be term-limited. And Democrats usually perform surprisingly well in Montana, given it's reputation as a Republican state)

Nebraska - Safe R (Sasse is fine)

New Hampshire - Leans D (Shaheen had a bit of a closer-than-expected call in 2014, and perhaps Chris Sununu will run here. She could also retire, possibly opening the door for a Carol Shea-Porter or Annie Kuster run)

New Jersey - Safe D (Booker will probably be a presidential contender - everybody seems to turn a blind eye to his Wall Street connections, as all my anti-establishment friends never seem to say anything about him - but even if he isn't, this seat is safe)

New Mexico - Safe D (Udall might not even occupy this seat by 2020, especially if he becomes governor, but whoever holds this for Democrats should be fine)

North Carolina - Tossup (Tillis won by one of the narrowest margins in 2014, and Ross, despite being a second- or third-tier challenger, did really well against Burr. I'd expect Democrats to put more effort on recruitment this year - though I don't think I'd want Kay Hagan again)

Oklahoma - Safe R (Inhofe only ran for another term because Obama got reelected, so he might retire in 2020. Not that it matters, though if Dan Boren runs, this race could be interesting)

Oregon - Safe D (Merkley should be fine)

Rhode Island - Safe D (I think Reed might retire, and with Rhode Island likely losing a congressional seat, this could be a chance for Jim Langevin or David Cicilline to be promoted)

South Carolina - Safe R (Only excitement could be in the primary if someone serious decides to challenge Graham. His really unimpressive showing in 2014's primary against a bunch of some dudes doesn't look good if someone serious steps up)

South Dakota - Likely R (If only for the possibility that Democrats get someone like Stephanie Herseth Sandlin or Brendan Johnson to run. Rounds is clearly favored though)

Tennessee - Safe R (I fully expect Alexander to retire, but there's pretty much an entire line of Republicans waiting their turn to succeed him. Given Tennessee's lack of a runoff, this could be the most fascinating primary to watch in 2020)

Texas - Safe R (Cornyn's safe, but there's an outside shot he may receive a challenge from someone like Beto O'Rourke)

Virginia - Leans D (Warner's closer-than-expected race was pretty concerning, but hopefully he'll have learned his lesson by 2020. He also may retire, but Virginia is slowly turning into a Democratic state, so Dems probably don't have much to worry about)

West Virginia - Safe R (Capito is safe)

Wyoming - Safe R (Enzi may retire, which could propel Liz Cheney to run for the seat, but otherwise there's nothing to see here).

[Orser67]

Democrats would be hurt by retirements in MI, MN, VA, or NH but I don't think any of those incumbents will retire. Maine is Likely R if Collins runs and Lean D if she doesn't. Iowa really seems to be moving away from Democrats, so I went with Likely R, but I could see Lean R as well.

[PAK Man]

Iowa really seems to be moving away from Democrats, so I went with Likely R, but I could see Lean R as well.

Iowa was mostly hurt by the fact that nobody in the state liked Clinton (independents and many Democrats were Sanders supporters, and many of them I know refused to back her and instead went for Gary Johnson). As long as the right Democrat emerges, Iowans shouldn't worry too much about the state permanently turning red.

[ElectionsGuy]

Election Ratings Guesses for 2020

[Maxwell]

Close-ish seats -

Alaska - Sullivan is a Republican incumbent in a state trending away from Republicans, but Sullivan seems pretty inoffensive. He'll probably be fine. Likely R.

Colorado - Pure Toss-up. I have no idea how Gardner is going to handle a Presidential year.

Georgia - Perdue has his strengths as an incumbent, but he still has quite a few weaknesses, including ones that could be exploited with older Democrat voters. Lean R, but the state is moving in the right direction.

Iowa - Ernst is the exact right amount of "golly gee" to win even if her policies are way to the right of Iowa. I'm going to guess she'll be fine. Likely R.

Kansas - by 2020, Kansasans will forget all of their Brownback troubles. Roberts probably retires, and Republicans will likely take this seat by quite a bit. Safe R.

Kentucky - McConnell could run again, which would be great, but I doubt it. Likely R with McConnell, Safe R with anyone else.

Louisiana - Cassidy is a weirdo but probably fine. Likely R, but if Bel Edwards or (Mitch) Landrieu could somehow be coaxed into running, this could be a solid race.

Maine - Safe R with Collins, Toss-up if she retires. I think she'll retire, or she might run for Governor in 2018 and there may be some sub-Republican there that's also Toss-up.

Montana - Montana likes to have competitive races for some reason even as Presidential races tend to go against Democrats. If Beautiful Flawless Steve Bullock doesn't go for President, he should run for this seat, and I think it's Toss-up, Tilt R if he makes the jump.

North Carolina - Tillis seems like an obvious candidate for Democrat pick-up, and probably only wins if Democrats have a bad year ala 2014, 2016. Lean D.

Virginia - Warner is probably fine, but then again we thought that in 2014. I'll go with an early Lean D rating at this point.

[Cynthia]

Maine: If Collins retires, there's no way a Republican getting the seat as the state just adopted ranked choice voting.

[Kingpoleon]

Competitive:
Alabama: Sessions or Roy Moore could lose this seat. Someone with a couple moderate views would easily hold it. Likely/Safe R.
Alaska: Lean R unless Ethan Berkowitz or Mark Begich run.
Colorado: Tossup/Tilt R. John Hickenlooper, Bill Ritter, Jared Polis, and Michael Hancock.
Delaware: Safe D if Coons runs. Jack Markell or Matthew Denn would make it Safe D, too.
Georgia: Assuming Chambliss retires, Tilt D if Barksdale, Jason Carter, or Michelle Nunn run.
Illinois: Safe D if Durbin, Cheri Bustos, or a Durbin staffer run. Likely D with someone else or Lean D v. Dold or Kinzinger.
Iowa: Tossup. Tyler Olson, Christie Vilsack, and Anesa Kajtazoviç are potential Democratic nominees.
Kansas: Safe R. Likely/Lean R if Paul Davis, Greg Orman, Mark Parkinson, or Joshua Svaty run.
Kentucky: Ben Chandler, Adam Edelen, Andy Beshear, or Jim Gray would make it Tossup against McConnell, Bevin, or another Tea Partier/evangelical.
Louisiana: John Bel Edwards or Caroline Fayard would make it Lean R. Jay Dardenne could make it Lean Dardenne if Edwards, Fayard, Cao, and moderateish and libertarian Republicans endorse him.
Maine: Collins, a Collins staff member, or Poliquin would win Likely R. Otherwise I expect it to be Tossup/Tilt D.
Massachusetts: Lean D v. Charlie Baker, Gabriel Gomez, or Richard Tisei. Otherwise Likely/Safe D.
Michigan: Tossup v. Brian Calley, David Trott, Fred Upton, or Justin Amash. Otherwise Lean/Likely D.
Minnesota: Lean/Likely D. None of Erik Paulsen, Norm/Jake Coleman, or Tom Elmer would probably run.
Mississippi: Jim Hood or someone similar would beat an extremist like Chris McDaniel. Lean R.
Montana: Tilt R. Tilt D if Bullock, Schweitzer, Juneau, or McCulloch runs.
Nebraska: Tossup if a Trumpist runs and gets over 3% and Brad Ashford, Chris Beutler, or Pete Festersen run.
New Hampshire: Tossup v. Sununu, Ayotte, Gatsas, Garcia, or Brown. Otherwise Lean D.
New Jersey: Likely D. Tom MacArthur or Kim Guadagno might run.
New Mexico: Heather Wilson or John Sanchez make it Tossup. Otherwise Likely D.
North Carolina: Lean D. McIntyre, Shuler, Foxx, or another person will run.
Oregon: Tossup if Merkey retires and one of Bruce Hanna, Greg Walden, Chris Dudley, and Dennis Richardson run.
Rhode Island: If Reed retires, Ken Block or Allan Fung would make it Tossup against a Progressive Caucus House member.
South Carolina: If the primary challengers excel 40% of the vote, Tossup v. someone like Jim Hodges.
Texas: Henry Cuellar could beat McCaul, Gohmert, or Cornyn if there is a tough primary.
Virginia: Tom Davis, Jim Webb, or Barbara Comstock would all win easily against just about everybody except Warner.
West Virginia: Lean R.

[Heisenberg]

Georgia: Assuming Chambliss retires, Tilt D if Barksdale, Jason Carter, or Michelle Nunn run.

You mean Perdue, right? Chambliss already retired. He'll be 70, but I think he runs for reelection, and then passes on a third term to retire at 76 and during a midterm.

Also, great analysis, I always appreciate you listing a lot of strong potential candidates. You sure know the benches well.

[Figueira]

Maine: If Collins retires, there's no way a Republican getting the seat as the state just adopted ranked choice voting.

Maine doesn't seem to be quite as Democratic now as it was in the Bush-Obama years, so I wouldn't discount the possibility of a Republican win even with IRV.

[Kingpoleon]

Georgia: Assuming Chambliss retires, Tilt D if Barksdale, Jason Carter, or Michelle Nunn run.

You mean Perdue, right? Chambliss already retired. He'll be 70, but I think he runs for reelection, and then passes on a third term to retire at 76 and during a midterm.

Also, great analysis, I always appreciate you listing a lot of strong potential candidates. You sure know the benches well.

Anytime I can't remember strong candidates, the Blue Dog Coalition, Main Street Republicans, New Democrats, and those who endorsed Kasich, Christie, O'Malley, or Webb, all can be good resources.

[jamestroll]

I know I hold a very controversial opinion here, but I would not make any confident predictions of the 2020 Senate elections.

[Maxwell]

Montana: Tilt D if Juneau, or McCulloch runs.

Okay....

didn't Juneau just lose by 16 points to Zinke after being touted as "competitive"?

[Heisenberg]

Montana: Tilt D if Juneau, or McCulloch runs.

Okay....

Hahaha LOL at Juneau being favored over Daines. If she couldn't even come within single digits this time after all the hype about her putting the seat in play, why would she come close, let alone be favored, against a seat in the upper chamber?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since its a redistricting year I am gonna give Dems a slight edge pending Begich announces in AK and Susan Collins running for ME Gov in 2018, I think both will go Democratic

Especially, since it will be a Trump reelect. Barring a miraculous recovery, Trump will be defeated in 2020

[coloradocowboi]

Georgia: Assuming Chambliss retires, Tilt D if Barksdale, Jason Carter, or Michelle Nunn run.

You mean Perdue, right? Chambliss already retired. He'll be 70, but I think he runs for reelection, and then passes on a third term to retire at 76 and during a midterm.

Also, great analysis, I always appreciate you listing a lot of strong potential candidates. You sure know the benches well.

Anytime I can't remember strong candidates, the Blue Dog Coalition, Main Street Republicans, New Democrats, and those who endorsed Kasich, Christie, O'Malley, or Webb, all can be good resources.

Colorado is not great. Bill Ritter is never running again, unfortunately. Hickenlooper is disliked by the base and too cozy to oil and gas; he won't make it out of a primary in '20. Hancock is also disliked by the base, and simultaneously perceived as too far left. Polis is too far left.

Better Dem options would be Ed Perlmutter (if he isn't the Gov), Linda Newell (if she can take CD6 in '18), Joe Neguse or Leroy Garcia (one will very likely by the LG), Cary Kennedy (who will very likely be LG or Gov), Andy Kerr or Domenick Moreno (whoever replaces Perlmutter in CD7 if he's the Gov), or Joe Salazar, a leftwing state Rep who has a lot of the Bernie people's loyalty (not my personal fave)

[Xing]

Potentially competitive races:

AK: Likely R
CO: Toss-Up/Tilt D
GA: Lean R
IA: Likely R (*sigh*)
LA: Likely R
ME: Lean D if Collins retires (Safe R if she doesn't)
MT: Likely R
NH: Lean D
NC: Toss-Up
VA: Likely D

[Figueira]

Competitive:
Alabama: Sessions or Roy Moore could lose this seat. Someone with a couple moderate views would easily hold it. Likely/Safe R.
Alaska: Lean R unless Ethan Berkowitz or Mark Begich run.
Colorado: Tossup/Tilt R. John Hickenlooper, Bill Ritter, Jared Polis, and Michael Hancock.
Delaware: Safe D if Coons runs. Jack Markell or Matthew Denn would make it Safe D, too.
Georgia: Assuming Chambliss retires, Tilt D if Barksdale, Jason Carter, or Michelle Nunn run.
Illinois: Safe D if Durbin, Cheri Bustos, or a Durbin staffer run. Likely D with someone else or Lean D v. Dold or Kinzinger.
Iowa: Tossup. Tyler Olson, Christie Vilsack, and Anesa Kajtazoviç are potential Democratic nominees.
Kansas: Safe R. Likely/Lean R if Paul Davis, Greg Orman, Mark Parkinson, or Joshua Svaty run.
Kentucky: Ben Chandler, Adam Edelen, Andy Beshear, or Jim Gray would make it Tossup against McConnell, Bevin, or another Tea Partier/evangelical.
Louisiana: John Bel Edwards or Caroline Fayard would make it Lean R. Jay Dardenne could make it Lean Dardenne if Edwards, Fayard, Cao, and moderateish and libertarian Republicans endorse him.
Maine: Collins, a Collins staff member, or Poliquin would win Likely R. Otherwise I expect it to be Tossup/Tilt D.
Massachusetts: Lean D v. Charlie Baker, Gabriel Gomez, or Richard Tisei. Otherwise Likely/Safe D.
Michigan: Tossup v. Brian Calley, David Trott, Fred Upton, or Justin Amash. Otherwise Lean/Likely D.
Minnesota: Lean/Likely D. None of Erik Paulsen, Norm/Jake Coleman, or Tom Elmer would probably run.
Mississippi: Jim Hood or someone similar would beat an extremist like Chris McDaniel. Lean R.
Montana: Tilt R. Tilt D if Bullock, Schweitzer, Juneau, or McCulloch runs.
Nebraska: Tossup if a Trumpist runs and gets over 3% and Brad Ashford, Chris Beutler, or Pete Festersen run.
New Hampshire: Tossup v. Sununu, Ayotte, Gatsas, Garcia, or Brown. Otherwise Lean D.
New Jersey: Likely D. Tom MacArthur or Kim Guadagno might run.
New Mexico: Heather Wilson or John Sanchez make it Tossup. Otherwise Likely D.
North Carolina: Lean D. McIntyre, Shuler, Foxx, or another person will run.
Oregon: Tossup if Merkey retires and one of Bruce Hanna, Greg Walden, Chris Dudley, and Dennis Richardson run.
Rhode Island: If Reed retires, Ken Block or Allan Fung would make it Tossup against a Progressive Caucus House member.
South Carolina: If the primary challengers excel 40% of the vote, Tossup v. someone like Jim Hodges.
Texas: Henry Cuellar could beat McCaul, Gohmert, or Cornyn if there is a tough primary.
Virginia: Tom Davis, Jim Webb, or Barbara Comstock would all win easily against just about everybody except Warner.
West Virginia: Lean R.

Politics does not work that way.

[Figueira]

Anyway. The only really obvious pickup opportunities for the Democrats are North Carolina and Colorado, and even those are not guaranteed (I think Gardner and Tillis both go down in a Democratic year though). If it's a good year for the Democrats I think Montana, Iowa, Alaska, and Georgia could potentially be in play. Maybe if the Democrats manage to take SD-AL that person could run against Rounds, but that's pretty unlikely. Maine, of course, is a wild card. I don't think we're quite ready for #BattlegroundMississippi, and Texas is probably in the same boat.

All the others are relatively safe, barring weird situations like what happened in Kansas in 2014.

Meanwhile if it's a good year for Republicans they'll target New Hampshire, Michigan, and Virginia, but I don't see any of those flipping under most circumstances (I'm a little unsure on New Hampshire). Maybe one of the others if the Democrats nominate a really bad candidate (I'm thinking Illinois if Durbin retires).

So not a great map for either party, but depending on what happens in 2018, Senate control could be at stake. 2022 should be more interesting.

[MT Treasurer]

Thinking about it again, these would be my very early ratings:

The only seat Democrats might have to worry about is Michigan - and that's assuming 2020 is a good year for Rs. It's basically the same as 2016, albeit to a lesser extent: The map is filled with several pick-up opportunities for Democrats.

[Skill and Chance]

If Trump wins by >5:

R+2

If the presidential election is close:

D+1

If Trump loses by >5:

D+6

(Collins probably retires in this scenario)

Basically, the Democrats are almost guaranteed Colorado but will struggle to get much more unless they have a big tailwind, while Republicans can net seats only if Trump wins the PV.  Class 2 will be the key to Democratic senate hopes in 2026 and beyond, but a bunch of Southern states just aren't quite there yet.

[Xing]

Is Daines really that vulnerable? I know that Democrats are much more competitive at the statewide level in Montana, but Daines seems pretty inoffensive. I also think Sullivan would definitely start out favored in Alaska.

This is mine:

In the case of Maine, I'm averaging the rating if Collins doesn't retire (Safe R) with the rating if she does (Lean D).

[Skill and Chance]

Is Daines really that vulnerable? I know that Democrats are much more competitive at the statewide level in Montana, but Daines seems pretty inoffensive. I also think Sullivan would definitely start out favored in Alaska.

This is mine:

In the case of Maine, I'm averaging the rating if Collins doesn't retire (Safe R) with the rating if she does (Lean D).

Only if Bullock (or a Congressman Quist?) runs and only if Trump is losing pretty badly nationwide.

[jamestroll]

No.