How did Rod Blum survive?

[The Arizonan]

While 2016 was a Republican year, Monica Vernon had a shot of taking out Rod Blum. He was a one-term congressman in a D+5 district.

[mencken]

I highly doubt that district is still D+5. Given the swings in Black Hawk (Obama +20->Clinton +7), Dubuque (Obama +15->Trump +1), and Linn (Obama +18->Clinton +9) Counties, I am going to wager that Clinton only barely carried this district, if at all.

I'll buy a D+5 district going Republican by this much in a presidential year when I see it.

Given Iowa's trend this election it will probably vote like a D+1 or D+2 district in November.

[PAK Man]

My observations from someone who actually lives in the state (though not the 1st District):

1. Iowans HATE Hillary Clinton. I don't know why, but they just do. She got trounced in 2008 by Obama and just barely eked out a win over Sanders in 2016. Iowa's Democrats, especially the young Democrats, are very, very liberal, and many of the ones I know that supported Sanders just went over to Gary Johnson instead. I'm sure that hurt Vernon too. There's also the possibility that many people that would have saved Vernon simply just stayed home.

2. Democrats I've talked to in the state really didn't like Vernon as a candidate. They also didn't like Pat Murphy either. Most Democrats I talked to supported Anesa Kajtazovic in 2014 and Ravi Patel in 2016 (he dropped out long before the filing deadline). And if Democrats didn't like her, then how did they expect independent voters to be attracted to her?

This, by the way, is the third consecutive election Vernon has lost. She lost the 2014 primary for this seat (barely losing to Pat Murphy), the 2014 governor's race as Jack Hatch's running mate (a race that was lost before it even began; I went to the Tom Harkin Steak Fry that year and Hatch was the one Democrat I saw ZERO yard signs for) and now this.

I think it was just a perfect storm that saved him. Anti-Clinton Democrats didn't turn up to the polls and they ignored Vernon as a candidate, either because they didn't know about her or they didn't care about her.

The good news for Democrats is that Andy McGuire is no longer the state party chair (I know a lot of Democrats, myself included, weren't really huge fans of hers). So hopefully change will happen.

[The Arizonan]

My observations from someone who actually lives in the state (though not the 1st District):

1. Iowans HATE Hillary Clinton. I don't know why, but they just do. She got trounced in 2008 by Obama and just barely eked out a win over Sanders in 2016. Iowa's Democrats are very, very liberal, and many of the ones I know that supported Sanders just went over to Gary Johnson instead. I'm sure that hurt Vernon too. There's also the possibility that many people that would have saved Vernon simply just stayed home.

2. Democrats I've talked to in the state really didn't like Vernon as a candidate. They also didn't like Pat Murphy either. Most Democrats I talked to supported Anesa Kajtazovic in 2014 and Ravi Patel in 2016 (he dropped out long before the filing deadline). And if Democrats didn't like her, then how did they expect independent voters to be attracted to her?

This, by the way, is the third consecutive election Vernon has lost. She lost the 2014 primary for this seat (barely losing to Pat Murphy), the 2014 governor's race as Jack Hatch's running mate (a race that was lost before it even began; I went to the Tom Harkin Steak Fry that year and Hatch was the one Democrat I saw ZERO yard signs for) and now this.

I think it was just a perfect storm that saved him. Anti-Clinton Democrats didn't turn up to the polls and they ignored Vernon as a candidate, either because they didn't know about her or they didn't care about her.

The good news for Democrats is that Andy McGuire is no longer the state party chair (I know a lot of Democrats, myself included, weren't really huge fans of hers). So hopefully change will happen.

This post has been very informative, especially for those who've only been to Iowa once (me). Did Mike Coffman survive for similar reasons aside from being entrenched?

[PAK Man]

Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to Coffman. I was thinking that Carroll would topple him this year. I'm still trying to figure out how he's held in a Democratic-leaning district for so long. Though, given Sanders won Colorado during primary season, I'd wager that's probably not a bad idea.

[Miles]

Trump beat HRC 48.2% to 44.6% in the district.

[Maxwell]

I have to say it - Blum, even for how conservative he is, is a strong incumbent. He runs very lightweight ads about how he's a coach, and he's very convincing. The democrat bench here is large but thin in terms of talent. He's got that "golly gee" charisma that Iowa seems to love. I think he's a very strong candidate for higher office beyond this point.

and looking at the Trump margin in this district - he ran AHEAD of Trump! Trump won the district by around 3, Blum won by close to 8 points. That's a walloping.

[Kingpoleon]

Anesa Kajtazovic or Tyler Olson would have won. Pat Murphy and Chet Culver probably would have won.

[Heisenberg]

Anesa Kajtazovic or Tyler Olson would have won. Pat Murphy and Chet Culver probably would have won.

Culver lives in IA-03 I believe, but Iowans moving to run for Congress is not uncommon. Anyway one Iowa Democrat on this board (PAK Man I think, maybe he's the only one) said many Iowa Democrats don't like him. I also don't think Murphy would do much better in a rematch. The other two are untested (to my knowledge), but I think Blum would have still been dragged across by Trump and won.

[Maxwell]

Anesa Kajtazovic or Tyler Olson would have won. Pat Murphy and Chet Culver probably would have won.

Culver lives in IA-03 I believe, but Iowans moving to run for Congress is not uncommon. Anyway one Iowa Democrat on this board (PAK Man I think, maybe he's the only one) said many Iowa Democrats don't like him. I also don't think Murphy would do much better in a rematch. The other two are untested (to my knowledge), but I think Blum would have still been dragged across by Trump and won.

Once again, Blum did much, much better than Trump in this district.

[Cynthia]

Hillary won two counties in Blum's district

[PAK Man]

A lot on this forum have asked why Chet Culver is so unpopular. This article from Iowa Starting Line gives a few answers:

http://iowastartingline.com/2016/02/19/whats-chet-culver-up-to/

Chief among them, he vetoed a bargaining bill that labor had backed.

[Vosem]

It's a little amazing (and is part of the understated story of the election) that Republicans ended up failing to knock off a single rural Midwestern Democrat. Trump won, by pretty solid margins and with massive swings from 2012, the districts held by Dave Loebsack, Ron Kind, Tim Walz, Collin Peterson, and Rick Nolan. But all five of them were reelected -- Kind was obviously lucky to be unopposed, but that shouldn't take away from the achievements of the other four.

[Maxwell]

It's a little amazing (and is part of the understated story of the election) that Republicans ended up failing to knock off a single rural Midwestern Democrat. Trump won, by pretty solid margins and with massive swings from 2012, the districts held by Dave Loebsack, Ron Kind, Tim Walz, Collin Peterson, and Rick Nolan. But all five of them were reelected -- Kind was obviously lucky to be unopposed, but that shouldn't take away from the achievements of the other four.

Walz has always been a pretty impressive incumbent in my mind, seeing as his district was pretty neutral in years when he won convincingly. Also - not a blue dog.

Peterson's district is his as long as he wants it - but no democrat will ever win after he leaves. I'm going to guess his district voted for Trump by at least 13, maybe more.

Nolan winning was a bit of a surprise to me considering how Minnesota went, and he's to the left of both Peterson and Walz, and he doesn't like fundraising. I have no idea how Nolan won in all actuality.

That all said I'm still pissed that certified wacko Jason Lewis managed to snag a house seat.

[Seattle]

Trump won MN-7 by... 30.

^ Yeah, from the SOS site:

CD1: 53/38 Trump
CD2: 46/45 Trump
CD3: 50/40 Clinton
CD4: 61/30 Clinton
CD5: 73/18 Clinton
CD6: 58/33 Trump
CD7: 61/31 Trump
CD8: 54/38 Trump

[Maxwell]

Trump won MN-7 by... 30.

^ Yeah, from the SOS site:

CD1: 53/38 Trump
CD2: 46/45 Trump
CD3: 50/40 Clinton
CD4: 61/30 Clinton
CD5: 73/18 Clinton
CD6: 58/33 Trump
CD7: 61/31 Trump
CD8: 54/38 Trump

oh my god Peterson is a legend.

ugh lewis ran AHEAD of trump what a god damn mess democrats i mean christ

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trump won MN-7 by... 30.

^ Yeah, from the SOS site:

CD1: 53/38 Trump
CD2: 46/45 Trump
CD3: 50/40 Clinton
CD4: 61/30 Clinton
CD5: 73/18 Clinton
CD6: 58/33 Trump
CD7: 61/31 Trump
CD8: 54/38 Trump

oh my god Peterson is a legend.

ugh lewis ran AHEAD of trump what a god damn mess democrats i mean christ

Lewis is a mixed bag. While he has controversial statements, he also had the most level headed views on foreign policy and was more pro-gay rights than any of the talk radio hosts that were broadcast/re-broadcast here in NC.

[Gass3268]

It's a little amazing (and is part of the understated story of the election) that Republicans ended up failing to knock off a single rural Midwestern Democrat. Trump won, by pretty solid margins and with massive swings from 2012, the districts held by Dave Loebsack, Ron Kind, Tim Walz, Collin Peterson, and Rick Nolan. But all five of them were reelected -- Kind was obviously lucky to be unopposed, but that shouldn't take away from the achievements of the other four.

Walz has always been a pretty impressive incumbent in my mind, seeing as his district was pretty neutral in years when he won convincingly. Also - not a blue dog.

Peterson's district is his as long as he wants it - but no democrat will ever win after he leaves. I'm going to guess his district voted for Trump by at least 13, maybe more.

Nolan winning was a bit of a surprise to me considering how Minnesota went, and he's to the left of both Peterson and Walz, and he doesn't like fundraising. I have no idea how Nolan won in all actuality.

That all said I'm still pissed that certified wacko Jason Lewis managed to snag a house seat.

If the Democrats are able to get back total control by 2021 (big if, I know), the 7th is the district that needs to go. 8th (new 7th) can pull out of Minneapolis exurbs and become a northern district, 1st can become a southern district, 6th can become a middle district, while 2, 3, 4, 5 stay in the Twin City metro area.