My observations from someone who actually lives in the state (though not the 1st District):
1. Iowans HATE Hillary Clinton. I don't know why, but they just do. She got trounced in 2008 by Obama and just barely eked out a win over Sanders in 2016. Iowa's Democrats are very, very liberal, and many of the ones I know that supported Sanders just went over to Gary Johnson instead. I'm sure that hurt Vernon too. There's also the possibility that many people that would have saved Vernon simply just stayed home.
2. Democrats I've talked to in the state really didn't like Vernon as a candidate. They also didn't like Pat Murphy either. Most Democrats I talked to supported Anesa Kajtazovic in 2014 and Ravi Patel in 2016 (he dropped out long before the filing deadline). And if Democrats didn't like her, then how did they expect independent voters to be attracted to her?
This, by the way, is the third consecutive election Vernon has lost. She lost the 2014 primary for this seat (barely losing to Pat Murphy), the 2014 governor's race as Jack Hatch's running mate (a race that was lost before it even began; I went to the Tom Harkin Steak Fry that year and Hatch was the one Democrat I saw ZERO yard signs for) and now this.
I think it was just a perfect storm that saved him. Anti-Clinton Democrats didn't turn up to the polls and they ignored Vernon as a candidate, either because they didn't know about her or they didn't care about her.
The good news for Democrats is that Andy McGuire is no longer the state party chair (I know a lot of Democrats, myself included, weren't really huge fans of hers). So hopefully change will happen.
This post has been very informative, especially for those who've only been to Iowa once (me). Did Mike Coffman survive for similar reasons aside from being entrenched?
